All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 2
Record: 30-5
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Northwestern Wildcats
Seed: 7
Record: 22-11
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Sacramento, CA
Channel: TNT
Everyone's just watching for the next big seed to fall. Will it be UCLA at the claws of Northwestern?
UCLA Northwestern
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #38
Median: #5 Median: #35
Markov: #1 Markov: #33
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #42
Offense: #25 Offense: #109
Defense: #1 Defense: #13
BPI: #4 BPI: #41
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #46
Other Measures:
SOS: #25 SOS: #38
Tempo (Offense): #201 Tempo (Offense): #308
Consistency: #83 Consistency: #347
Str + Reliability: #1 Str + Reliability: #67
Str + Potential: #8 Str + Potential: #23
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #39
Last 6: #2 Last 6: #40
Injury Mod Rank: #3 Injury Mod Rank: #38
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #2 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #7 Sweet 16: #39
UCLA is a very strong 2-seed, ranking in the top 4 in all the major power ratings and snagging the #1 spot in the Markov ratings, #1 in defensive efficiency per Pomeroy, and #1 when Strength and Consistency are combined to forecast a deep tournament run. They're #2 overall in Pomeroy and in the LRMC. That's the profile of a 1-seed.
Northwestern is fairly seeded as a 7-seed, but there's disparity between their play on offense and defense. Their defense can possibly rattle UCLA's offense; then the challenge becomes: how do they score when on offense against the #1 defense in the nation? Their low Consistency ranking is a possible antidote to UCLA's steady play. If the Wildcats have an outlier upside game they have a shot, and UCLA will be less likely to have a big up or down game.
UCLA is on the new MegaScreen's very short list of possible Final Four teams. UCLA originally had an Injury Mod ranking of #14 for both Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona being gone but neither played last game and their rating without them isn't significantly different, especially given the small sample. So for now, we assume UCLA is UCLA.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(8)Maryland+27, =(6)Kentucky+10, (10)USC+2, @(11)Arizona St.+12, (11)Arizona St.+18, (2)Arizona+9, =(15)UNC Asheville+33
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Illinois-9, =(3)Baylor-5, @(2)Arizona-6, @(10)USC-13, =(2)Arizona-2
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: UCLA suffered early losses to 9-seed Illinois and 3-seed Baylor, both in the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. They won 14 straight after that, beating 8-seed Maryland 87-60 on the road and 6-seed Kentucky along the way. Then they dropped two more games, to 2-seed Arizona and 10-seed USC, before running off another 12 straight. They dropped the last game to 2-seed Arizona on a missed 3-pointer. The Bruins lost no home games this year.
Veterans Jaime Jacquez (17.3 ppg, 8.1 rebounds) and Tyger Campbell (13.6 points, 4.7 assists) have been the team leaders for the last four years and provide just about the best complementary play in college basketball today. Third-leading scorer Jaylen Clark was lost for the year a few games ago; his absence is the only question mark for this team's NCAA tournament run. So far they're doing ok, dispatching UNC Asheville with east behind 17 points from both Jacquez and Amari Bailey.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(7)Michigan St.+7, (9)Illinois+13, @(4)Indiana+1, (1)Purdue+6, (4)Indiana+2, (8)Iowa+20, =(10)Boise St.+8
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Auburn-1, (11)Pittsburgh-29, @(8)Iowa-16, @(9)Illinois-4, @(8)Maryland-16, (10)Penn St.-OT, =(10)Penn St.-OT
- Other losses (4): Ohio St.-16, Rutgers-3, @Michigan-7, Michigan-17
Overview: Northwestern wasn't on anyone's radar (as usual) to begin the season so after they waltzed through five early opponents and lost to Auburn and Pitt, nothing seemed unusual. But then they beat 7-seed Michigan State in an early Big Ten contest. At 10-2 they fell to Ohio State but then beat 9-seed Illinois and 4-seed Indiana back to back. By then it was clear Northwestern had to be taken seriously, and the Wildcats alternated between winning and losing almost randomly but along the way scored a win over 1-seed Purdue as part of a 5-game win streak. The Wildcats lost 4 of their last 5 but had long secured their bid.
Northwestern's stingy defense is the key to their success; they guard the 2-point goal well and get a lot of blocks and steals, forcing longer shots from opponents. On offense point guard Boo Buie leads the team with 17.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. Buie had 22 in the 75-67 win over Boise State.
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Game Analysis: It's kind of hard to imagine Northwestern being competitive on offense when you see UCLA is #1 on defense and Northwestern can barely shoot the ball to save its life. But if the Wildcats shoot bad against everyone—and still get wins due to their defense—then maybe it doesn't matter how good UCLA's defense is. Northwestern just has to do the same thing to UCLA—shut them down on defense.
Can they do it? It's a 50/50 contest on that side of the court. UCLA doesn't shoot very well themselves, about average at best, but they rebound really well. That's what gives them an edge when they have the ball—2nd shots. Between that, and let's face it, their defense is expected to shut down Northwestern—UCLA is a clear favorite.
Northwestern needs to rock the boat somehow. Making threes is the way to do it, it's the answer to every problem in basketball. Make your threes and you win, miss them and you lose if that's what you depend on. And one reason UCLA is so even-keel is that they don't rely on the three very much at all.
Vegas Line:
UCLA by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
UCLA by 9.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UCLA: 71.3%
Northwestern: 28.7%
As I've noted in other 2 vs. 7 and 2 vs 10 matchups, the 7-seed has a lower expectation of winning than a 10-seed does when facing a 2-seed, 30% for 7-seeds vs. 37% for 10-seeds. Northwestern is almost right on track with a 7-seed's expectations.
Bottom line: Northwestern has a wild puncher's chance, made tougher by UCLA's steady-state gameplay over almost the entire year. That kind of consistency is what gets a team to the Final Four, barring too much Madness in March.
Final prediction: UCLA 67, Northwestern 56
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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