All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Colgate Raiders
Seed: 15
Record: 26-8
Conference: Patriot
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 7:25 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Des Moines, IA
Channel: TBS
Colgate is back in the Big Dance for the third straight year. Is three a charm for the nation's top-shooting team?
Texas Colgate
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #115
Median: #8 Median: #137
Markov: #6 Markov: #126
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #114
Offense: #18 Offense: #44
Defense: #11 Defense: #231
BPI: #5 BPI: #98
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #97
Other Measures:
SOS: #8 SOS: #290
Tempo (Offense): #53 Tempo (Offense): #117
Consistency: #277 Consistency: #87
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #103
Str + Potential: #5 Str + Potential: #132
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #126
Last 6: #1 Last 6: #100
Injury Mod Rank: #6 Injury Mod Rank: #114
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #22 Sweet 16: NA
Texas has 2-seed written all over their power rating stats—everything is between 5 and 8 in all the surveyed power ratings. Their Offense and Defense both rank in the top 20. Even their schedule strength is #8 due to playing in the murderous Big Twelve. They've upped it in the last several games, ranking #4 for the 2nd half of the season in Strength and #1 over the last six games. In other words, they're playing like a 1-seed right now.
Colgate isn't playing like a 1-seed but they are pretty good for a 15-seed, or maybe 15-seeds are just getting better these days. They rank in the low 100s and sometimes better than 100, but their play is unbalanced; they're a Quad One team on offense but nearing Quad Four on the other side of the court. Unlike Texas their schedule wasn't tough at all, but since they outclassed their conference-mates and are a pretty consistent team, they nearly swept the Patriot League.
Interestingly, Texas does not make the cut for the MegaScreen's Final Four rankings. And they're only #22 in the Sweet Sixteen, despite showing up on the Elite Eight screen at #11.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
- Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7
Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.
Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(9)Auburn-27, (15)Vermont-1
- Other losses (6): @Buffalo-1, =Duquesne-5, =Delaware-4, @Penn-12, Cornell-11, @American-1
Overview: Colgate had a rough time early in the season, starting out 6-7 with five losses to non-tournament teams and a 27-point loss to 9-seed Auburn. They didn't beat any tourney teams but came close against fellow 15-seed Vermont, losing by 1 at home to the Catamounts. But then suddenly things changed and Colgate started winning. Was it the huge 101-67 win over Loyola MD that spurred them on? A change of offense, a player returning from injury? Or could it have been the start of league play in the Patriot, where the average team that is not Colgate ranks around #275 in Pomeroy? I think the latter is it.
Nothing against Colgate—it takes a very consistent team to win 20 out of 21 games against any competition. The Raiders have a great offense—they are the #1 shooting team in the nation overall, and #1 on three-pointers. They don't turn the ball over. Five players average in double figures for the Raiders led by Tucker Richardson's 13.9ppg.
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Game Analysis: Let just say it: Colgate's offense is a fluke, the product of a middle-sized fish being in a very small pond. They get credit for being consistent, as many teams the same quality would lose 4 or 5 conference games just by having down nights. They don't.
But looking at their #1 3-point shooting and #1 effective field goal percentage overall (per Pomeroy), is that just because they play terrible defenses? In general a team's shooting is partly due to their own skill, which you can't deny, and partly from their opponent leaving you open. And there's really no way to tell. The best shooting team in the world can't be faulted if they have bad competition. But Colgates free throw percentage gives them away. There's no way a great-shooting team really shoots just 66% from the foul line, ranking #335 in the nation.
And with that, I think the idea that Colgate's offense will challenge Texas's staunch defense goes away. A few years ago I wanted to see Colgate play because they ranked very high in the Strength power rating and as high as #4 in the LRMC (due to odd Covid scheduling and a lot of 50-point blowout wins). This year I'm not to eager to see the Patriots because I don't think they'll challenge the Longhorns. They'll still hit open shots like they obviously do; making 41% of threes is tough when unguarded. But they won't find themselves open nearly as often.
Vegas Line:
Texas by 13 1/2
Power rating: spread
Texas by 15.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas: 85.8%
Colgate: 14.2%
Colgate's odds to win are pretty high for a 15-seed, as the upset rate there is around 7%. The game-comparison system uses every game a team played, so Texas' narrow win over Rice gets counted as a loss many times over. .
Bottom line: As we've seen, Colgate does great when they're playing teams bordering the 300s and struggles against teams ranking around the low 100s. Texas is in the top ten, and unless they're super-overconfident, they'll shut down the Colgate offense as much as anyone has this year.
Final prediction: Texas 79, Colgate 45
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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