All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Seed: 10
Record: 23-13
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Des Moines
Channel: CBS
There are two big seed-matchup mysteries in the 2nd round. One, why do 8-seeds beat 1-seeds twice as often as 9-seeds? And two, why do 10-seeds have more success against 2-seeds than 7-seeds?
Texas Penn State
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #44
Median: #8 Median: #46
Markov: #6 Markov: #26
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #33
Offense: #17 Offense: #13
Defense: #11 Defense: #95
BPI: #5 BPI: #46
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #36
Other Measures:
SOS: #8 SOS: #30
Tempo (Offense): #53 Tempo (Offense): #309
Consistency: #277 Consistency: #59
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #5 Str + Potential: #67
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #43
Last 6: #1 Last 6: #15
Injury Mod Rank: #6 Injury Mod Rank: #45
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #22 Sweet 16: NA
Texas has 2-seed written all over their power rating stats—everything is between 5 and 8 in all the surveyed power ratings. Their Offense and Defense both rank in the top 20. Even their schedule strength is #8 due to playing in the murderous Big Twelve. They've upped it in the last several games, ranking #4 for the 2nd half of the season in Strength and #1 over the last six games. In other words, they're playing like a 1-seed right now.
Penn State's full-season stats hardly matter right now because they're on a pretty epic run themselves. On offense they're every bit as good as Texas while their defense clearly lags. But they're improving. The two teams play completely different tempos and slowing the game down will be to Penn State's advantage.
Interestingly, Texas does not make the cut for the MegaScreen's Final Four rankings. And they're only #22 in the Sweet Sixteen, despite showing up on the Elite Eight screen at #11.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
- Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7
Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.
Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(13)Furman+5, @(9)Illinois+15, (8)Iowa+4, (4)Indiana+19, (9)Illinois+12, @(7)Northwestern+OT, (8)Maryland+1, =(9)Illinois+3, =(7)Northwestern+OT, =(4)Indiana+4, =(7)Texas A&M+17
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (7)Michigan St.-9, (1)Purdue-13, @(1)Purdue-20, @(8)Maryland-6, =(1)Purdue-2
- Other losses (8): =Virginia Tech-2, @Clemson-OT, @Michigan-10, @Wisconsin-3, @Rutgers-20, @Nebraska-9, Wisconsin-OT, Rutgers-3
Overview: Penn State gave little indication early that they were an NCAA tournament team, starting 6-3 with losses to Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Michigan State, thought they took the Tigers into double overtime on the road. They beat Illinois on the road and Iowa at home but lost 8 of their next 11 and were 14-11 with a month to go. Then the turnaround started, with wins over 9-seed Illinois, 7-seed Northwestern, 8-seed Maryland, Illinois again (to complete a 3-game sweep), Northwestern again (2-game sweep), and 4-seed Indiana. In the end Penn State had 10 wins over tournament teams to only 5 losses, pretty incredible for a 10-seed but there's also those 8 non-tournament losses.
Penn State's Jalen Pickett is the key to their offense's success; the 6-4" point guard is one of the nation's best players, averaging 17.9 points per game, and leads the team with 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1 steal per game. The Lions are by far the most experienced team in the field, ranking #1 per KenPom with a staggering 4.07 years of experience on average! They used that experience to beat Texas A&M 76-59 behind Andrew Funk's 27 points.
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Game Analysis: Penn State has been steady as a rock and playing at a high level recently. They upped their game even more against Texas A&M but to beat Texas they'll need some help from the Longhorns, who are playing better than anyone in the nation right now. Texas is quite a bit more volatile performance-wise than Penn State and the Lions need to force their tempo on the game to throw Texas off theirs.
As we noted last time, Penn State has a style on offense and defense. On offense they don't rebound and they don't get to the foul line. They just take their time to get a good shot, and shoot the ball—very often a 3—and hope it goes in. They are nearly dead last in offensive rebounds and getting to the line. But it works, as they're in the top 15 in offense.
On defense they don't try to get steals or blocks, they just rebound the ball (fairly well) and get on with their next offensive possession. Rinse and repeat. It doesn't work as well on the defensive side because teams tend to shoot fairly well against them and they aren't in the top 50 in rebounding. But the whole formula is working lately.
Texas defends shots well but not staggeringly so, and they'll need to do something extra to defend the 3-point shots that will be raining down. They have a big advantage when they're on offense and need to use it get Penn State out of their rhythm. If they get a lead things will be hard for Penn State to mount a comeback with their slow offense.
Vegas Line:
Texas by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Texas by 7.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas: 69.9%
Penn State: 30.1%
For some reason 10-seeds have a lot more luck with 2-seeds than 7-seeds do. 7-seeds have won just under 30% against 2-seeds while 10-seeds have won a solid 37%. This is over 84 games for the former and 54 for the latter so it's not a tiny sample. It seems like it's persisting too because in the last two tournaments 7-seeds are 0-2 and 10-seeds are 2-2 against the 2-seed.
So Penn State's odds look like the typical 7-seed's odds instead of a 10-seed's odds. Normally when a team like Penn State is on a run you look at smaller samples and they look like the winner. But in this case Texas is on a run, too. The only sample that shows Penn State winning is a 1-game sample—the last game played.
Bottom line: To win Penn State needs to keep the magic rolling. And they really could do it. I'm committed to Texas, having them in my brackets beating Texas A&M here. But this is a live dog in Penn State, and both teams are playing their best so anything can happen. I call for Texas to survive a scare.
Final prediction: Texas 70, Penn State 67
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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