All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 29-6
Conference: Big East
vs.
Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 7
Record: 20-12
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Sunday, March 19
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: CBS
Is it time for another Tom Izzo Final Four, or will it be Marquette's turn?
Marquette Michigan State
Power Ratings
Strength: #14 Strength: #34
Median: #16 Median: #28
Markov: #8 Markov: #39
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #32
Offense: #8 Offense: #41
Defense: #47 Defense: #40
BPI: #13 BPI: #37
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #45
Other Measures:
SOS: #41 SOS: #3
Tempo (Offense): #13 Tempo (Offense): #273
Consistency: #48 Consistency: #89
Str + Reliability: #5 Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential: #35 Str + Potential: #55
2nd half season: #15 2nd half season: #27
Last 6: #13 Last 6: #18
Injury Mod Rank: #14 Injury Mod Rank: #18
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #5 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #11 Sweet 16: #35
Marquette has solid power rating numbers across the board but they're borderline for a 2-seed. Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI are suggestive of a 3-seed maybe, and only LRMC is in single digits—along with my Markov Chain implementation which puts the Golden Eagles at #8. They've been in the top ten there all year, often in the top five. Markov chain rankings really like Marquette this year, and it's the biggest gap between the Eagles and the Spartans, who are only #45 in the LRMC. Other than that they're pretty standard for a 7-seed.
Michigan State has played one of the nation's toughest schedules, so they're prepared for two games against Major conference foes in three days. But Marquette played a major conference schedule and in any case didn't face a Major conference foe last time around. Both teams have a pretty high level of consistency and have played well over the last 6 games. Michigan State's Injury-corrected Strength score (with Malik Hall back) also pulls them pretty even with the Eagles.
The MegaScreen really likes Marquette, even as a possible Final Four team. This was prior to Purdue's departure, too, which makes their odds a lot better. And of course, you never know when a Tom Izzo team might make the Final Four out of the blue.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (3)Baylor+26, (6)Creighton+11, (4)Connecticut+6, (11)Providence+8, (3)Xavier+1, @(6)Creighton+2, =(4)Connecticut+2, =(3)Xavier+14, =(15)Vermont+17
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-5, =(11)Mississippi St.-3, @(11)Providence-OT, @(3)Xavier-4, @(4)Connecticut-15
- Other losses (1): Wisconsin-OT
Overview: Marquette doesn't really have a bad loss on their schedule. Five losses to tournament teams including 1-seed Purdue, 3-seed Xavier and 4-seed UConn, and outside that only an overtime loss to NIT-bound Wisconsin, their only home loss of the season. Their win streaks grew from 2 to 3 twice, to five twice, to 8 and counting at the end. And they topped 8 tournament teams including 3-seed Baylor by 26 points, 3-seed Xavier twice, 4-seed UConn twice, and 6-seed Creighton twice.
Kam Jones leads the team with 15.0 points per game while Tyler Kolek adds 13.3 and 7.7 assists. He had 19 in the win over Vermont.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(6)Kentucky+OT, @(10)Penn St.+9, (8)Iowa+2, (8)Maryland+5, (4)Indiana+15, =(10)USC+10
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(3)Gonzaga-1, =(1)Alabama-11, (7)Northwestern-7, @(9)Illinois-9, (1)Purdue-1, @(4)Indiana-13, @(1)Purdue-16, @(8)Iowa-OT
- Other losses (4): @Notre Dame-18, @Rutgers-6, @Michigan-12, =Ohio St.-10
Overview: Michigan State had rough patches and success alternately this year. They started 5-4 but with the nation's #3 SOS it was a landmine with losses to 3-seed Gonzaga (by one point) and 1-seed Alabama (in Portland) and a win over 6-seed Kentucky (in double overtime). The really bad loss was to Notre Dame, 70-52. The Spartans went on a 7-game win streak over mostly mediocre competition, then lost 5 of 7 over mostly tough opponents (including 1-seed Purdue twice); their level of play barely budged during this time. Down the stretch they won 5 of 8, beating Ohio State twice before losing to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan State boast a trio of double digit scorers: Tyson Walker leads with 14.6ppg while Joey Hauser leads in rebounding with 6.9 and AJ Hoggard dishes out 6.0 assists per game. Malik Hall is a key reserve who missed 8 games early and 3 games in the middle of the Big Ten season but he's back, and in the games he's played Michigan State is a lot better. Hauser led with 17 points and 8 rebounds in the 72-62 win over USC.
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Game Analysis: When Michigan State has the ball it's pretty even in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette's big edge is their top ten offense.
In terms of shot selection, it's Michigan State's #3 ranked 3-point shooting vs. Marquette's #3 ranked 2-point shooting. The odd thing is that Marquette shoots more 3s than the Spartans do. Michigan State doesn't shoot 2's very well but shoots them often; they should turn to the 3-point shot for this game at least as Marquette doesn't defend the 3 well.
Rebounding could give the Spartans the edge, too, as it's not something Marquette does well on either side of the court. They go for steals on defense, and just hope to make their shots on offense, pushing the pace pretty quick while Michigan State plays a slower tempo. Expect long possessions when the Spartans have the ball as Marquette's D settles in for the long haul too.
Vegas Line:
Marquette by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Marquette by 3.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Marquette: 59.2%
Michigan St: 40.8%
2-seeds vs. 7-seeds are normally a 70/30 proposition, so Michigan State has about 10% extra odds with them but still come up short most of the time.
Bottom line: If Michigan State breaks out the threes this could be a game, but they seem content to go with the lower-value shot. Unless some Tom Izzo magic happens I expect Marquette to advance.
Final prediction: Marquette 72, Michigan State 71
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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