All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 2
Record: 28-6
Conference: Big East
vs.
Vermont Catamounts
Seed: 15
Record: 23-10
Conference: America East
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 2:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: CBS
Another 15 seed hopes for the big one.
Marquette Vermont
Power Ratings
Strength: #14 Strength: #129
Median: #16 Median: #109
Markov: #8 Markov: #122
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #113
Offense: #8 Offense: #99
Defense: #47 Defense: #153
BPI: #13 BPI: #97
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #103
Other Measures:
SOS: #41 SOS: #222
Tempo (Offense): #13 Tempo (Offense): #289
Consistency: #48 Consistency: #240
Str + Reliability: #5 Str + Reliability: #146
Str + Potential: #35 Str + Potential: #118
2nd half season: #15 2nd half season: #105
Last 6: #25 Last 6: #98
Injury Mod Rank: #14 Injury Mod Rank: #130
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #5 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #11 Sweet 16: NA
Marquette has solid power rating numbers across the board but they're borderline for a 2-seed. Strength, Pomeroy, and BPI are suggestive of a 3-seed maybe, and only LRMC is in single digits—along with my Markov Chain implementation which puts the Golden Eagles at #8. They've been in the top ten there all year, often in the top five. Markov chain rankings really like Marquette this year!
Vermont on the other hand is pretty solid for a 15-seed, a trend this year where 15-seeds have some rankings in the top 100. Strength is their worst at #129, with BPI their best at #91. In terms of the two sides of the court, both teams play better offense than defense, but it's a matter of degree as Marquette plays top ten Offense and top 50 Defense while Vermont is struggling to stay inside the top 100 in either one.
A few things Vermont has going for them: a slow tempo which could keep overall scoring down, and a healthy bit of inconsistency which could help them reach an outlier level they need to beat the Eagles. Nothing in recent play stats gives Vermont too much ammunition. Marquette ranks pretty high in the Final Four list on the MegaScreen, and is solidly in the Sweet Sixteen there. Their quality plus their consistency lends itself to a possible deep run.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (3)Baylor+26, (6)Creighton+11, (4)Connecticut+6, (11)Providence+8, (3)Xavier+1, @(6)Creighton+2, =(4)Connecticut+2, =(3)Xavier+14
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(1)Purdue-5, =(11)Mississippi St.-3, @(11)Providence-OT, @(3)Xavier-4, @(4)Connecticut-15
- Other losses (1): Wisconsin-OT
Overview: Marquette doesn't really have a bad loss on their schedule. Five losses to tournament teams including 1-seed Purdue, 3-seed Xavier and 4-seed UConn, and outside that only an overtime loss to NIT-bound Wisconsin, their only home loss of the season. Their win streaks grew from 2 to 3 twice, to five twice, to 8 and counting at the end. And they topped 8 tournament teams including 3-seed Baylor by 26 points, 3-seed Xavier twice, 4-seed UConn twice, and 6-seed Creighton twice.
Kam Jones leads the team with 15.0 points per game while Tyler Kolek adds 13.3 and 7.7 assists.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(15)Colgate+1
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(5)Saint Mary's-26, @(10)USC-2, =(13)Iona-21
- Other losses (7): @Cal St. Fullerton-OT, @Yale-29, =UNC Wilmington-2, =Long Beach St.-20, Toledo-12, @New Hampshire-7, @UMass Lowell-15
Overview: A lot of small-conference teams begin the season with several losses then, when conference season starts and the schedule gets easy, breeze through it. But this is ridiculous. The Catamounts lost 7 of their first 9 games before winning 21 of the next 24 including a 15-game streak to end the year. Most of the early games were very tough: 5-seed St. Mary's, 10-seed USC, 13-seed Iona, and almost-seeded Yale. They did beat 15-seed Colgate, their only tourney win this year. After two early stumbles it was smooth sailing in the weak America East (#25 of 32 conferences per Pomeroy).
Dylan Penn leads the team at 13.5 points per game.
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Game Analysis: Vermont's slim hopes rest on slowing the game down to keep it close and having an outlier upside game, and hoping Marquette has an outlier on the downside. For the former, Marquette plays super-fast on offense but settle in on defense for long possessions, so the game might be fairly slow; and for the latter, Marquette is quite consistent themselves so they won't cooperate with Vermont's plan to make them play poorly I'm afraid.
Marquette starts a guard-heavy lineup and as a team they don't have much height, but that won't be a problem against Vermont who is a very short team, starting four players 6-5 or under. Not surprisingly, they are a terrible rebounding team—on offense, where they are 6th worst in the nation per Pomeroy. Maybe surprisingly they are the 6th best defensive rebounding team! Marquette is a poor rebounding team on both sides so maybe Vermont has an edge here, at least when on defense.
The Catamounts shoot the ball well and don't turn it over a lot. On defense, though, they don't defend shots well, they don't create turnovers—they pretty much just wait to get rebounds. Marquette's 2-point shooting is #4 in the nation so it might be a long wait for those rebounds.
Vermont's 15-game win streak is impressive and it should build confidence. But note that Marquette is 14-1 over the same span, against a much, much tougher schedule. At the same time, confidence is something the Golden Eagles don't want too much of!
Vegas Line:
Marquette by 11
Power rating: spread
Marquette by 13.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Marquette: 82.5%
Vermont: 17.5%
Vermont greatly surpasses the historical 7% chance for a 15-seed to upset a 2-seed, perhaps that's why the Vegas line is so low—just 11 points, compared to 13.3 for the Strength power rating.
Bottom line: Not seeing an opening for Vermont here. Of course in most cases the 15-seed upsets are totally out of the blue so we wouldn't see it coming anyway. But Marquette is a very steady team, and if they get behind can come back fast with their quick-release offense. As long as Marquette isn't overconfident, Vermont might get overwhelmed.
Final prediction: Marquette 81, Vermont 64
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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