All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 1
Record: 29-5
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Seed: 16
Record: 20-15
Conference: Northeast
Date: Friday, March 17
Time: 6:50 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Columbus, OH
Channel: TNT
Fun fact: FDU is from Teaneck, New Jersey.
Purdue Fairleigh Dickinson
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #305
Median: #11 Median: #313
Markov: #3 Markov: #298
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #299
Offense: #7 Offense: #147
Defense: #26 Defense: #359
BPI: #7 BPI: #290
LRMC: #7 LRMC: #278
Other Measures:
SOS: #29 SOS: #362
Tempo (Offense): #334 Tempo (Offense): #131
Consistency: #85 Consistency: #258
Str + Reliability: #3 Str + Reliability: #318
Str + Potential: #20 Str + Potential: #279
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #290
Last 6: #28 Last 6: #214
Injury Mod Rank: #10 Injury Mod Rank: #305
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #3 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #2 Sweet 16: NA
Purdue has actually become a somewhat weak 1-seed, ranking #7 in Pomeroy, BPI, and LRMC and #10 in Strength. They're #3 in the Markov Chine ranking though, which held up despite their rash of losses. And their offense is top ten while the defense is borderline top 25. FDU is borderline top 300 and their defense is borderline dead last in the nation, as is their Strength of Schedule.
How well is Purdue situated for a deep run? Their last six games haven't been great and that mostly clears their February mini-slump. They are very consistent which is key, but can they push themselves to a higher level to win it all? The MegaScreen says they have a chance; they're about a sure thing for the Sweet 16, a solid bet for the Final Four, but beyond they're only #3 there.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (2)Marquette+5, =(9)West Virginia+12, =(3)Gonzaga+18, =(5)Duke+19, @(10)Penn St.+13, @(7)Michigan St.+1, (8)Maryland+3, (7)Michigan St.+16, (10)Penn St.+20, (8)Iowa+14, (9)Illinois+5, =(10)Penn St.+2
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(4)Indiana-5, @(7)Northwestern-6, @(8)Maryland-14, (4)Indiana-8
- Other losses (1): Rutgers-1
Overview: Purdue beat 12 tournament teams which is why they ended up a 1-seed despite some late losses. They topped 2-seed Marquette early on, then win the Phil Knight Invitational (one of the two) in Portland by beating 9-seed West Virginia, 3-seed Gonzaga, and 5-seed Duke all within 4 days. That's like a mini-NCAA tournament right there! Their first loss was a shocker at home to Rutgers, their only loss to a team that (just barely) missed the Dance. They were 22-1 when they hit a rough patch, losing 4 of six games including two to 4-seed Indiana, both home and away. They recovered enough to win the Big Ten tournament, beating upstarts Ohio State and Penn State rather than the league's top teams.
7-4 300 lb Zack Edey is college basketball's player of the year in most people's eyes; he averages 22.3 points per game and 12.8 rebounds while shooting 60.6 percent from the floor.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(16)Texas Southern+23
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Pittsburgh-22
- Other losses (14): @Loyola Chicago-OT, =SIU Edwardsville-1, @Longwood-16, @Saint Peter's-14, @Hartford-8, @Richmond-29, Queens-9, Sacred Heart-7, Stonehill-11, Wagner-4, Central Connecticut-4, @Sacred Heart-OT, @St. Francis PA-10, @Merrimack-1
Overview: Fairleigh Dickinson is the rare team (first?) to get an automatic bid despite losing in the finals of their conference tournament, as Merrimack isn't eligible during transition to D-I. But they got a win over Texas Southern in the play-in game to make up for it; they're legit now!
FDU's early season was dismal, with a 3-6 start before a huge 97-80 win over St. Joe's jump started their season. Suddenly they were only losing two in a row instead of 5 in 6. But they did what they needed to do—reach the NEC finals—to get a bid and here they are, playing Purdue.
5-8 point guard Demetre Roberts is the teams leading scorer with 16.7 per game.
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Game Analysis: FDU is the shortest team in the nation, with two starting guards under 6 feet tall and a 6-6 center. This is the team facing Zack Edey.
They also have the 11th worst 2-point defense in the county (the two facts are possibly related).
I don't think there has to be any more analysis here.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 23
Power rating: spread
Purdue by 25.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Purdue: 95.5%
FDU: 4.5%
There's no way FDU has even close to a 4.5% chance to win this game, given the height matchup.
Bottom line: This would be a Chaminade over Ralph Sampson's Virginia level upset if it happened.
Final prediction: Purdue 97, Fairleigh Dickinson 51
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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