All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 28-7
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 8
Record: 21-13
Conference: SEC
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Des Moines, IA
Channel: CBS
The weakest 1-seed in the field meets a strong 8-seed.
Kansas Arkansas
Power Ratings
Strength: #9 Strength: #19
Median: #10 Median: #30
Markov: #10 Markov: #36
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #20
Offense: #29 Offense: #51
Defense: #7 Defense: #16
BPI: #10 BPI: #14
LRMC: #11 LRMC: #23
Other Measures:
SOS: #1 SOS: #16
Tempo (Offense): #54 Tempo (Offense): #143
Consistency: #299 Consistency: #205
Str + Reliability: #14 Str + Reliability: #21
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #28
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #40
Last 6: #16 Last 6: #50
Injury Mod Rank: #8 Injury Mod Rank: #20
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #4 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #16 Sweet 16: #17
The Jayhawks got a 1-seed as usual but are they one of the four best teams? That's debatable, and the power ratings say no. They rank either #9, #10, or #11 in all the rankings here, which would make them at least a 2-seed. It's their Schedule Strength of #1 that put them on the 1-line. The Jayhawk defense is elite but on offense they're borderline top 25 at best.
Arkansas is a very strong 8-seed, more like a 5- or a 6-, and definitely good enough to be within striking distance of Kansas, especially in the BPI where they are right behind the Jayhawks (these are all pre-tournament numbers; Kansas is up to #9 and Arkansas down to #15 as of today). The Razorbacks certainly play good enough defense to slow down Kansas, who has top ten defensive play that will slow down Arkansas greatly. Look for a lower-scoring game, even as both teams like to push the tempo to a degree.
Both teams have played killer schedules and are ready for a big-time game like this one. Neither has played their best basketball lately, but both were very impressive in their opening round game so that point may be moot. Kansas carried a parenthetical Injury downgrade since two starters were questionable, but both played in the first round game so we've removed the asterisk. Arkansas' injury modification stands, but they now are playing nearly as well as they were when they had Trevon Brazile.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(5)Duke+5, =(11)N.C. State+6, (16)Texas Southern+32, @(7)Missouri+28, (4)Indiana+22, @(9)West Virginia+14, (6)Iowa St.+2, @(6)Kentucky+9, (3)Kansas St.+12, (2)Texas+8, (3)Baylor+16, @(6)TCU+5, (9)West Virginia+2, =(9)West Virginia+17, =(6)Iowa St.+13, =(16)Howard+28
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-14, @(3)Kansas St.-OT, (6)TCU-23, @(3)Baylor-6, @(6)Iowa St.-15, @(2)Texas-16, =(2)Texas-20
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Kansas beat 11 tournament teams and didn't lose to a single non-tourney foe. That's pretty consistent play. But overall they've had patches of inconsistency and unfortunately some of that came at the end and might impact their chances of repeating as champion. Kansas roared to 16-1 losing only to 4-seed Tennessee 64-50, while beating 5-seed Duke, 11-seed NC State, and bludgeoning 7-seed Missouri 95-67 (game 10). They followed that by beating 4-seed Indiana 84-62 and they might have been the best team in the country at this time. But after a 5-0 conference start they lost three straight games, including a terrible 83-60 home loss to 6-seed TCU. They pulled out of that after losing to 6-seed Iowa State and beating 2-seed Texas they put together a great 7-game win streak where they beat 4 tourney teams. In the end they lost to Texas twice but played well between those losses.
Kansas is led by national player of the year candidate Jalen Wilson's 20.1 points and 8.4 rebounds. Third-leading scorer Kevin McCullar (10.7ppg) might miss the tournament. Without him (a 2-game sample) the Jayhawks play like the #50 team in the nation. Again, a 2-game sample which includes the final Texas game, one of their worst performances. #2 scorer Gradey Dick is having back problems, too, and might miss the game, though he played throughout the Texas game so we assume he will be fine.
Turns out we were right about Gradey Dick, he played and scored 19 points, 2nd only to Wilson's 20. And McCullar also played in the 96-68 blowout of Howard.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(5)San Diego St.+OT, (15)UNC Asheville+34, (7)Missouri+6, (7)Texas A&M+11, @(6)Kentucky+15, =(9)Auburn+3, =(9)Illinois+10
- Losses to tournament teams (11): =(6)Creighton-3, @(9)Auburn-13, (1)Alabama-15, @(7)Missouri-3, @(3)Baylor-3, (11)Mississippi St.-6, @(7)Texas A&M-6, @(1)Alabama-3, @(4)Tennessee-18, (6)Kentucky-9, =(7)Texas A&M-6
- Other losses (2): @LSU-3, @Vanderbilt-13
Overview: Arkansas started strong with 11 wins in 12 games, beating 5-seed San Diego State in overtime but losing to 6-seed Creighton. The Razorbacks hit a rough patch corresponding with losing two players and dropped five out of six, but recovered to win 5 of 6 afterwards. They were 4-10 against tournament-bound SEC foes and played Baylor close on the road. They ended with another skid, losing 4 of 5, but played very well in the Auburn win and the 3-point Alabama road loss.
Five Razorbacks have averaged in double figures over the season, but one of them (Trevor Brazile) is injured and another (Nick Smith) missed a lot of the season but is back. Ricky Council IV leads the team at 15.9ppg. Council led with 18 points—making 11 of 12 free throws—in the 73-63 win over Illinois.
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Game Analysis: Arkansas played a great game against Illinois, better than I was expecting from the Razorbacks who seemed to peak even before the SEC season. But they've had outstanding games before in the midst of a slump, but it doesn't last The question is can they sustain playing this well?
And even if they can, does that get them a win over Kansas necessarily? They Jayhawks trounced Howard with ease, pulling away with a late first-half run, and now they seem to be in good health again—other than coach Bill Self, who is recovering from a heart procedure. So far they've played very well under assistant Norm Roberts, at least in 3 out of 4 games.
Both teams on defense seem to match up well with the other team's offense. Arkansas doesn't shoot 3s much or very well and Kansas defends the 2-pt zone well. Kansas also prefers 2 point shots and Arkansas defends well there, too. The Razorbacks tend to foul on defense a lot. But in general both teams play great defense.
The edge goes to Kansas for playing better offense overall. They aren't great at 3-pointers but it's more of a weapon for them for sure. Both squads shoot the 2 well, but Kansas can stretch the Razorback defense.
Vegas Line:
Kansas by 3
Power rating: spread
Kansas by 3.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 60.3%
Arkansas: 39.7%
Pretty tight odds on this one, with Vegas and Strength very close as usual. But 1-seeds are expected to beat 8-seeds over 80% of the time, not 60%. That's mostly due to Kansas being a weak (in terms of power ratings) 1-seed. These are similar for the odds of a 3-seed to beat a 6-seed.
Bottom line: Both teams had a great performance in the first round, so there's really no reason to change my initial notion that Kansas would advance to the Sweet Sixteen—especially now that health concerns are behind them. But they're still the most vulnerable 1-seed, and they'll be tested here.
Final prediction: Kansas 72, Arkansas 70
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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