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Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Howard Bison
Seed: 16
Record: 22-12
Conference: MEAC
Date: Thurday, March 16
Time: 2:00 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Des Moines
Channel: TBS
Can Howard become the next Baltimore-area 16-seed to upset a 1-seed?
Kansas Howard
Power Ratings
Strength: #9 Strength: #225
Median: #10 Median: #211
Markov: #10 Markov: #224
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #215
Offense: #29 Offense: #204
Defense: #7 Defense: #212
BPI: #10 BPI: #224
LRMC: #11 LRMC: #206
Other Measures:
SOS: #1 SOS: #305
Tempo (Offense): #54 Tempo (Offense): #123
Consistency: #299 Consistency: #341
Str + Reliability: #14 Str + Reliability: #268
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #165
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #150
Last 6: #20 Last 6: #102
Injury Mod Rank: #8(50) Injury Mod Rank: #226
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #4 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #16 Sweet 16: NA
The Jayhawks got a 1-seed as usual but are they one of the four best teams? That's debatable, and the power ratings say no. They rank either #9, #10, or #11 in all the rankings here, which would make them at least a 2-seed. It's their Schedule Strength of #1 that put them on the 1-line. The Jayhawk defense is elite but on offense they're borderline top 25 at best. Howard, naturally, lags as a 16-seed but they're not atrocious. There's just nothing about their season-long stats that jumps out (we'll find out that their early season should be discounted greatly). They played the #305 schedule, contrasting with KU's killer slate.
Both teams play a quicker tempo, and neither team is very consistent (again, in Howard's case the early season is the reason). In the 2nd half of the season Kansas held steady while Howard improved to a solid #150; in the last 6 games Kansas dropped a bit while Howard played almost like a top 100 team. These teams are dangerous—like St. Peter's last year, the poorer seeded teams that come alive in their last few games can be dangerous; they start playing like 12-seeds or 10-seeds, teams that have an actual chance to win.
Kansas makes the Final Four MegaScreen which is impressive, but they rate pretty low on the Sweet Sixteen screen, making it look like every game is going to be a tough step in the journey to repeat.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(5)Duke+5, =(11)N.C. State+6, (16)Texas Southern+32, @(7)Missouri+28, (4)Indiana+22, @(9)West Virginia+14, (6)Iowa St.+2, @(6)Kentucky+9, (3)Kansas St.+12, (2)Texas+8, (3)Baylor+16, @(6)TCU+5, (9)West Virginia+2, =(9)West Virginia+17, =(6)Iowa St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-14, @(3)Kansas St.-OT, (6)TCU-23, @(3)Baylor-6, @(6)Iowa St.-15, @(2)Texas-16, =(2)Texas-20
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Kansas beat 15 tournament teams and didn't lose to a single non-tourney foe. That's pretty consistent play. But overall they've had patches of inconsistency and unfortunately some of that came at the end and might impact their chances of repeating as champion. Kansas roared to 16-1 losing only to 4-seed Tennessee 64-50, while beating 5-seed Duke, 11-seed NC State, and bludgeoning 7-seed Missouri 95-67 (game 10). They followed that by beating 4-seed Indiana 84-62 and they might have been the best team in the country at this time. But after a 5-0 conference start they lost three straight games, including a terrible 83-60 home loss to 6-seed TCU. They pulled out of that after losing to 6-seed Iowa State and beating 2-seed Texas they put together a great 7-game win streak where they beat 4 tourney teams. In the end they lost to Texas twice but played well between those losses.
Kansas is led by national player of the year candidate Jalen Wilson's 20.1 points and 8.4 rebounds. Third-leading scorer Kevin McCullar (10.7ppg) might miss the tournament. Without him (a 2-game sample) the Jayhawks play like the #50 team in the nation. Again, a 2-game sample which includes the final Texas game, one of their worst performances. #2 scorer Gradey Dick is having back problems, too, and might miss the game, though he played throughout the Texas game so we assume he will be fine.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(6)Kentucky-32, @(12)VCU-10
- Other losses (10): @George Washington-10, James Madison-26, =Wyoming-7, =Belmont-23, @Yale-46, @Hampton-9, La Salle-4, @Maryland Eastern Shore-9, @Morgan St.-13, @North Carolina Central-8
Overview: Howard clearly got better as the season went by. Early on they were losing and losing bad. Later they were winning, and by the end they were a pretty good team—as good as some 12-seeds, not a 16-seed. The Bison started the season 4-8, and two of the wins were over non-D-I schools District of Columbia and Gallaudet. They lost to 6-seed Kentucky 95-63, six teams that didn't make the tournament, and 12-seed VCU 70-60. The worst loss (game 10) was to Yale, 86-40. But that was the old Howard. Starting perhaps with the VCU loss they were a new team, and started to beat real teams by real margins, even putting together a 9-game win streak. The best was saved for last as the Bison won the MEAC, beating favorite Norfolk State twice in a week and a half, the first time 87-67, then 65-64 to capture the MEAC crown. They finished out 18-4 after the 4-8 start.
Howard is led by Elijah Hawkins' 13.0 ppg and 5.9 assists.
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Game Analysis: I'm not going to do a lot of analysis of this game because I won't be taking the upset here no matter what. Howard is an intriguing team for their solid play once you remove their early struggles when they couldn't buy a win. They're much better than a 16-seed now so the normal 16-seed vs. 1-seed rules shouldn't apply. Kansas is still a 1-seed, though, and they're playing very close to home—Des Moines is about 250 miles from Lawrence—and will have a huge contingent of fans there.
Looking at their offensive stats they turn the ball over an incredible amount of time (#357 in steals) and rebound very poorly on defense. Despite this, don't be shocked if the Bison keep it close for the first half, which is what UMBC did before upsetting Virginia in 2018. 1-seeds often don't feel the urgency, especially in front of a supportive crowd.
Kansas may be without Kevin McCullar which impacts them but not enough to lose this game. It could affect the Round of 32, particularly if Gradey Dick is out too (which is unlikely).
Vegas Line:
Kansas by 22
Power rating: spread
Kansas by 22.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 91.2%
Howard: 8.8%
Despite the wide spread given by both Vegas and Strength, there is enough upside in Howard's later performances that their odds of winning are very high for a 16-seed. 16-seeds have only one once, a 0.7% chance. The game-comparison system uses every game of the season and normally overestimates a 16-seed's chances but the odds are normally less than 5%. A 9% chance is out of this world. It reflects the quality of Howard's play currently, while the Committee just looked at their sheer number of losses across the season (to be fair, our Dance Chance though Howard should be a play-in team). Note that we're giving KU half value for home court due to playing a lot closer to home, too, or Howard's odds would be around 10%.
Bottom line: If you're determined to take a 16-seed upset this tournament, here it is, probably the only one that offers a modicum of reasoning behind it. But the quicker tempo will even things out in short order even if the Bison charge to a lead somehow. They're playing great but they'd have to be playing clearly better than Kansas for me to pick against a 1-seed. I will make it close just for kicks; this is the best I expect Howard can actually do, and if McCullar and Dick are out it might happen.
Final prediction: Kansas 76, Howard 70
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