All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 32-3
Conference: American
vs.
Auburn Tigers
Seed: 9
Record: 21-12
Conference: SEC
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Birmingham, AL
Channel: TBS
If Houston wants to reach the Final Four in Houston, they have to get past Auburn in Birmingham.
Houston Auburn
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #28
Median: #1 Median: #32
Markov: #2 Markov: #35
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #29
Offense: #11 Offense: #48
Defense: #4 Defense: #29
BPI: #1 BPI: #27
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #31
Other Measures:
SOS: #87 SOS: #18
Tempo (Offense): #324 Tempo (Offense): #121
Consistency: #207 Consistency: #318
Str + Reliability: #2 Str + Reliability: #43
Str + Potential: #3 Str + Potential: #22
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #23
Last 6: #20 Last 6: #53
Injury Mod Rank: #2(1) Injury Mod Rank: #32
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #1 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #1 Sweet 16: #21
Houston looks like a 1-seed rankings-wise, in fact they dominate the power ratings other than Strength where they are #2, and the Markov chain where they are also runner-up. The Cougars are almost top 10 in both offense and defense per Pomeroy. Auburn isn't nearly as lofty obviously as a 9-seed but they are close enough to be a serious threat to win the game. Their tough schedule has prepared them to face top teams night after night, whereas Houston had a long stretch of so-so competition in the American Athletic Conference.
Of course, their first opponent doesn't really count as "top competition" but the point is that Auburn is ready for anything. Houston's slow tempo is not what Auburn wants to play, though they are hardly lightning fast. And both teams have sagged over the last 6 games, Auburn in particular, but it's a different story over just the last four games (their 32=point loss to Kentucky is the 5th game). Houston's big issue is the injury to Marcus Sasser, and how it's affecting them. We don't have a reliable ranking for Houston without him, since the last game was awful and he played, but was re-injured. Let's just say the aren't nearly as good without him or when he isn't 100%. By that metric, for the last 2 games Houston ranks around 85th.
Houston ranks at #1 in both the Final Four and Sweet Sixteen lists, making them one of the favorites in the MegaScreen for the national title. But they need a fully healthy Marcus Sasser to get there.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (12)Oral Roberts+38, (16)Texas Southern+35, (13)Kent St.+5, (5)Saint Mary's+5, @(4)Virginia+8, (8)Memphis+8, @(8)Memphis+2, =(16)Northern Kentucky+11
- Losses to tournament teams (2): (1)Alabama-6, =(8)Memphis-10
- Other losses (1): Temple-1
Overview: Houston's chart is a tall wall of blue pierced by the occasional poor red game. The highlights: beating 12-seed Oral Roberts 83-45 (game 3); beating 13-seed Kent State just 49-44 (game 6); beating almost-NCAA team Norfolk State 100-52 (game 7); beating 5-seed Saint Mary's 53-48 (game 8); beating 4-seed Virginia 69-61 on the road (game 12). The losses were to 1-seed Alabama at home (after leading most of the game), Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court. They also beat the Tigers twice in the last 8 games. It doesn't appear the final game was a trend, unless of course Marcus Sasser is out for good. What happened there was as much (or more) a product of Memphis' play as it was Houston's.
Sasser leads the team with 17.1 ppg. Third-leading scorer J'Wan Roberts (10.4) leads with 7.8 rebounds per game. Against Northern Kentucky Sasser played 14 minutes all in the first half, scoring 5 points; Jarace Walker led with 16.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Texas Southern+16, =(7)Northwestern+1, (15)Colgate+27, (8)Arkansas+13, (11)Mississippi St.+6, (7)Missouri+33, (4)Tennessee+9, =(8)Iowa+8
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(8)Memphis-9, @(10)USC-3, (7)Texas A&M-16, @(9)West Virginia-3, @(4)Tennessee-3, @(7)Texas A&M-5, (1)Alabama-8, @(6)Kentucky-32, @(1)Alabama-OT, =(8)Arkansas-3
- Other losses (2): @Georgia-12, @Vanderbilt-2
Overview: At one point in the season Auburn was 16-3 overall and 6-1 in the SEC. Remember that? Not many people do since the Tigers finished 20-12 and 10-8 and lost in the first round of the SEC tournament, a 4-9 finish that counts in my book as a "collapse". There were signs before it, though; the Tigers didn't really beat anyone in the pre-conference season other than 7-seed Northwestern (16-seed Texas Southern and 15-seed Colgate hardly count). They fell to the two other best teams they played, 8-seed Memphis and 10-seed USC. And they had a really bad loss at Georgia in their 2nd SEC game.
6-10 forward Johni Broome leads the Tigers with 14.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Against Iowa he had 19 points and 12 rebounds.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Houston's win over Northern Kentucky sure didn't inspire confidence in a Final Four run without Marcus Sasser—or even with him. He didn't play the 2nd half and the team limped, like Sasser, to the finish line against a 16-seed. Not that they were in control of the game while he was in the lineup, which suggests he wasn't nearly 100%. Without him, they look directionless.
Auburn on the other hand came to life finally against Iowa and have now played four decent games in a row (though only 2-2 over the span). In the 2nd round any team is a danger to any other team; there are no truly shocking upsets, certainly not if you're facing a team that is a 12-seed or better.
Don't think that playing so close to home didn't have anything to do with Auburn's win over the Hawkeyes. The Tigers pulled out of a tailspin in front of a close-to-home crowd. They'll have that advantage again against Houston, and if it's close the crowd will smell blood.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Houston by 4.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 61.4%
Auburn: 38.6%
We're giving Auburn home court advantage and our spread via the Strength power rating is about a point less than Vegas figures. So maybe 5.5 is right and we shouldn't give full home court. In any case, Auburn's odds are way ahead of the historical odds for a 9-seed to beat a 1-seed, which are a dismal 8%, believe it or not. Why 9-seeds can't beat 1-seeds while 8-seeds have almost a 1 in 5 chance I'll never know. If no home court is given Auburn's odds drop to 31% which are still significant.
Bottom line: Sasser says he's going to play—again—but who knows how effective he'll be. If they play like they did the last two games they get killed. But I had Houston advancing and in any case don't have full confidence in Auburn playing two good games in a row.
Final prediction: Houston 63, Auburn 62
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments