All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 1
Record: 31-3
Conference: American
vs.
Northern Kentucky Norse
Seed: 16
Record: 22-12
Conference: Horizon
Date: Thursday, March 16
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Birmingham, AL
Channel: TNT
A solid 1-seed goes up against a much-too-solid 16-seed.
Houston Northern Kentucky
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #183
Median: #1 Median: #206
Markov: #2 Markov: #185
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #161
Offense: #11 Offense: #217
Defense: #4 Defense: #121
BPI: #1 BPI: #146
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #152
Other Measures:
SOS: #87 SOS: #268
Tempo (Offense): #324 Tempo (Offense): #298
Consistency: #207 Consistency: #164
Str + Reliability: #2 Str + Reliability: #183
Str + Potential: #3 Str + Potential: #183
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #145
Last 6: #15 Last 6: #128
Injury Mod Rank: #2(1) Injury Mod Rank: #186
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: #1 Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #1 Sweet 16: NA
Houston looks like a 1-seed rankings-wise, in fact they dominate the power ratings other than Strength where they are #2, and the Markov chain where they are also runner-up. The Cougars are almost top 10 in both offense and defense per Pomeroy. Northern Kentucky is really good for a 16-seed, a disturbing trend where the worst teams in the tournament rank fairly well these days. They even have the typical late-season boost in the 2nd half of the season and last 6 games. Houston falters a bit—only #5—in the 2nd half of the year and plunges to #15 on the last 6 games, mostly because of the big Memphis loss. And injury-wise if Marcus Sasser is out they might remain the #2 team but if he's back for sure, they're the best team in the country again.
Houston's schedule strength isn't great since they play in the American Athletic Conference, but it dwarfs the Horizon League's SOS. Both teams will slow this game down a lot so look for low scoring. This plays into Northern Kentucky's hands as UMBC used Virginia's slow play against them to play to a 21-21 draw at halftime. We'll see if that plays out again, against a team with a top offense.
Houston ranks at #1 in both the Final Four and Sweet Sixteen lists, making them one of the favorites in the MegaScreen for the national title.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (12)Oral Roberts+38, (16)Texas Southern+35, (13)Kent St.+5, (5)Saint Mary's+5, @(4)Virginia+8, (8)Memphis+8, @(8)Memphis+2
- Losses to tournament teams (2): (1)Alabama-6, =(8)Memphis-10
- Other losses (1): Temple-1
Overview: Houston's chart is a tall wall of blue pierced by the occasional poor red game. The highlights: beating 12-seed Oral Roberts 83-45 (game 3); beating 13-seed Kent State just 49-44 (game 6); beating almost-NCAA team Norfolk State 100-52 (game 7); beating 5-seed Saint Mary's 53-48 (game 8); beating 4-seed Virginia 69-61 on the road (game 12). The losses were to 1-seed Alabama at home (after leading most of the game), Temple at home, and Memphis on a neutral court. They also beat the Tigers twice in the last 8 games. It doesn't appear the final game was a trend, unless of course Marcus Sasser is out for good. What happened there was as much (or more) a product of Memphis' play as it was Houston's.
Sasser leads the team with 17.1 ppg. Third-leading scorer J'Wan Roberts (10.4) leads with 7.8 rebounds per game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): (13)Kent St.-22, @(9)Florida Atlantic-15
- Other losses (10): @Florida Gulf Coast-21, =UT Arlington-4, =Toledo-13, @Washington St.-21, Oakland-1, @Milwaukee-5, Milwaukee-1, @Youngstown St.-18, @Wright St.-18, @Cleveland St.-1
Overview: Northern Kentucky exhibits a disturbing trend among 15- and 16-seeds: playing like a really good team over the last 3, 5, or in this case, 8 games of the season. Suddenly 16-seeds are looking like 10-seeds near the end of the year. The Norse lost right off the bat to 13-seed Kent State 79-57. The only indication in the first 26 games that this team could play great basketball came in game 3 against Cincinnati, a 64-51 win for the Norse. Then they went back to their mediocre ways, losing three in a row and falling to 9-seed Florida Atlantic 67-52. Finally, after an 83-65 loss to Wright State the Norse turned on the jets, beating IUPUI by 39 and Purdue Fort Wayne by 13. They paused to lose to Cleveland State by a point on the road then won five straight including the Horizon League title where they beat Cleveland State by 2 this time.
Marques Warrick puts in 19.1 point per game for the Norse while rebounding specialist Chris Brandon pulls in 9.8 per game.
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Game Analysis: Regardless of how good Houston is, this isn't going to be a normal 1 vs. 16 game. Not saying it will be Virginia-UMBC all over again, but Northern Kentucky is playing levels above 16-seed quality.
I won't analyze the offenses and defenses. But Northern Kentucky is playing well enough—and the game is going to be slow-paced enough—that it might stay pretty close for a while. Houston plays the #345 tempo overall and the Norse play the #358 tempo. You do the math. If it stays close, people will start to talk about Virginia-UMBC (this is going to happen every time a 1-seed isn't at least 20 points ahead). Over time the offensive rebounds for Houston will add up and they will pull away.
It might be better if Marcus Sasser doesn't play this game. It will give the Cougars some urgency they might not otherwise have, and he can't be reinjured if he doesn't play.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 18
Power rating: spread
Houston by 22.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 94.2%
N Kentucky: 5.8%
Even though the Strength power rating's spread is almost 5 points wider, the game-comparison system gives Northern Kentucky a healthy near-6% chance for an upset. It's a product of their play over the last 8 games which is decidedly not like a 16-seed. 15-seeds have a historical 7% chance but that's facing a 2-seed, not a 1-seed. If 16-seeds are going to look like this in the future I might have to start actually analyzing those games instead of going through the motions and stamping the 1-seed the winner, and I don't want to have to change that.
Bottom line: Stamping Houston the winner. Assuming the Norse continue to play like a 10-seed so I'll set the margin that way.
Final prediction: Houston 64, Northern Kentucky 51
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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