All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 1
Record: 30-5
Conference: SEC
vs.
Maryland Terrapins
Seed: 8
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 18
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Birmingham, AL
Channel: TBS
Between star players with groin injuries and 16-seeds winning games, everything is happening in twos.
Alabama Maryland
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #27
Median: #2 Median: #25
Markov: #5 Markov: #15
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #22
Offense: #19 Offense: #35
Defense: #3 Defense: #33
BPI: #2 BPI: #20
LRMC: #3 LRMC: #25
Other Measures:
SOS: #9 SOS: #48
Tempo (Offense): #5 Tempo (Offense): #247
Consistency: #363 Consistency: #303
Str + Reliability: #17 Str + Reliability: #38
Str + Potential: #1 Str + Potential: #24
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #17
Last 6: #7 Last 6: #46
Injury Mod Rank: #2 Injury Mod Rank: #26
MegaScreen Ranking MegaScreen Ranking
Final 4: NA Final 4: NA
Sweet 16: #4 Sweet 16: #41
Alabama is a fully proper 1-seed with several top rankings by their name. #1 in Strength. #2 in Pomeroy and BPI, #3 in LRMC. The Markov Chain ranking interestingly puts the Tide only #5, probably because their high variability affects them there. Alabama has the #3 defense and still a top 20 offense, a tough combination to beat. Maryland has 8-seed written all over them, but once an 8-seed beats a 9-seed they're a big problem for any 1-seed. The same Markov chain method that downgrades Alabama has Maryland up at #15, the closest the two teams get.
The tempo difference between the teams is pretty great, mostly because Alabama is top 5 in offensive tempo (and overall tempo). Maryland is slow on offense and overall is even slower at #321—their "defensive tempo" is #362, 2nd slowest in the nation. But it's Alabama's defense that is the more effective, #3 in the nation.
Neither team is consistent so the outcome will be more in doubt that most games between teams of similar quality. In fact Alabama is the most inconsistent team in the country, but part of that is from having several out-of-this-world performances. So, a lot of the volatility is upside volatility but not all of it.
Alabama only ranks #7 in the last six games due to a four-game stretch where the team was out of sorts following the Brandon Miller gun-transportation revelations. They were playing like the #71 team over that 4-game span but over the last 4 games they played like themselves again. With 2 of the "old" games still in the mix they rank #7.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(7)Michigan St.+11, @(1)Houston+6, (8)Memphis+3, @(11)Mississippi St.+11, (6)Kentucky+26, @(8)Arkansas+15, @(7)Missouri+21, (11)Mississippi St.+3, @(9)Auburn+8, (8)Arkansas+3, (9)Auburn+OT, =(11)Mississippi St.+23, =(7)Missouri+11, =(7)Texas A&M+19, =(16)Texas A&M Corpus Christi+21
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Connecticut-15, (3)Gonzaga-10, @(4)Tennessee-9, @(7)Texas A&M-6
- Other losses (1): @Oklahoma-24
Overview: In the pre-SEC season the Tide beat 7-seed Michigan State, 1-seed Houston, and 8-seed Memphis while losing to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Gonzaga. To be fair, this tally does could Mississippi State three times and they didn't make the final 64, so you could say reduce the total by three now.
The Tide went 16-2 in the SEC, 19-2 if you count the conference tournament, only losing to 4-seed Tennessee and 7-seed Texas A&M on the road. The other loss along the way? A 93-69 beatdown by Oklahoma, a Big Twelve team that didn't make the Big Dance. It shows that even the best teams are vulnerable to any team ranked in the top 50 or so.
Freshman Brandon Miller is the team's star, averaging 19.6 points per game and 8.3 rebounds. Attention came his way due to a fatal shooting where it was revealed he had transported the murder weapon. Following this revelation the Tide played four very uncharacteristically poor games (games #28 to #31: they beat South Carolina in overtime, Arkansas by 3 at home, Auburn at home in overtime, and lost to Texas A&M 67-61) but Miller himself seemed unaffected, scoring a career high 41 in the first game. The guy has ice in his veins so don't expect the pressure of the NCAA tournament to get to him.
Of course just after saying that, Miller goes 0-5 for 0 points in the first game, citing a groin injury, as well as death threats. Nick Pringle led with 19 against TAMU-CC.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(5)Miami FL+18, (9)Illinois+5, (4)Indiana+11, (10)Penn St.+6, (1)Purdue+14, (7)Northwestern+16, =(9)West Virginia+2
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Tennessee-3, (2)UCLA-27, @(8)Iowa-14, @(1)Purdue-3, @(7)Michigan St.-5, @(10)Penn St.-1, =(4)Indiana-10
- Other losses (5): @Wisconsin-5, @Michigan-35, @Rutgers-14, @Nebraska-OT, @Ohio St.-11
Overview: Maryland started strong but hit turbulence near the start of the Big Ten season, losing non-conference tilts to 4-seed Tennessee and 2-seed UCLA, and hitting bottom with an 81-46 loss at Michigan. They recovered pretty well, finishing 9-5 over their last 14 games but 3 of their last six wins were over conference doormat Minnesota.
Jahmir Young leads four starters in double figures with 16.1 ppg. Against West Virginia it was Julian Reese who led with 17 points and 9 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: Tempo control is going to be a big part of this game. Alabama is #5 overall in tempo, while Maryland is #321. And on defense the Terps are #362, meaning they like to "lock down" their opponent for a long possession. Alabama likes short possessions on offense. Something's gotta give.
Brandon Miller is in the news again, this time for a groin injury (what is it with star players and groin injuries all of a sudden? That's like, two). He played limited minutes in Alabama's opening win, which was a smart coaching move because why risk him against a 16-seed (unless he's needed, apparently now 16-seeds are winning left and right, it's like, twice now). Miller played 19 minutes and didn't score on 0-5 shooting, the first time he's seemed "shook" since the gun revelations. He has security now due to death threats, that might be part of it. To make the Final Four they need Miller; if he is out due to injury, or danger, or another revelation, then Alabama's run comes to an end. We're assuming he plays and will watch the situation.
Maryland's best argument for beating Alabama is that they're better than Oklahoma, and the Sooners routed the Tide. That was in Norman, however, and this game is being played about an hour from Tuscaloosa.
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 9
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 11.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Alabama: 72.9%
Maryland: 27.1%
We're giving home court advantage to Alabama for playing in-state; without it the Strength power rating's spread would be around 8 points, so it looks like Vegas is giving them an extra point rather than the whole shebang. The Terps have a better shot, according to the game-comparison system, than the average 8-seed who clocks in at around 21%. That's a product of both teams' volatility.
Bottom line: Just when we thought the Brandon Miller issue was being totally ignored, it seems to have come back and he might have more problems with it being on a bigger stage. We'll see what happens. Until they prove otherwise, Alabama looks like they're playing well regardless and will be in the Sweet Sixteen.
Final prediction: Alabama 77, Maryland 60
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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