All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 31-6
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 35-3
Conference: C-USA
Date: Saturday, April 1
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Channel: CBS
This is for all the mid-Major marbles: the Mountain West's best team and Conference USA's best team.
San Diego State Florida Atlantic
Power Ratings
Strength: #19 Strength: #23
Median: #17 Median: #20
Markov: #15 Markov: #16
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #17
Offense: #75 Offense: #24
Defense: #4 Defense: #29
BPI: #15 BPI: #33
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #16
Other Measures:
SOS: #54 SOS: #106
Tempo (Offense): #168 Tempo (Offense): #95
Consistency: #65 Consistency: #118
2nd half season: #17 2nd half season: #30
NCAA Tournament: #3(#5) NCAA Tournament: #4(#28)
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Title Game: NA Title Game: NA
Neither team ranks like a Final Four contender but they are pretty similar to each other, with San Diego State holding a small lead in each power rating with a one-spot difference in the LRMC—and that's a Selection Sunday ranking, too. Interestingly our Markov formula has the Aztecs ahead by just one spot, too.
One interesting stat is Pomeroy's numbers for San Diego State. Most teams that make the Final Four see both offense and defense get better—FAU has improved from #31 to #24 on Offense, and from #35 to #29 on Defense—but San Diego State's offense has gotten worse, from #67 to #74. Their defense started at #10 and is now #4, so it's pretty clear they made the Final Four with their play on defense and not offense.
The BPI situation is interesting, too, with SDSU improving from #24 to #15 while FAU started at #34 and has only nudged up to #33. Meanwhile in Strength the Owls have improved from #29 to #23 and in Pomeroy from #22 to #17. Why the BPI has resisted FAU's charms I don't know except that they only beat #30 BPI Memphis by a point, #260 Fairleigh Dickinson by 8, and #31 K-State by 3, and the 7-point win over #4 Tennessee didn't offset that. Makes some sense, but 3 of the 4 teams they beat, all on neutral court, are still ahead of them.
FAU plays a pretty fast offensive tempo, not so fast that it clashes with SDSU's average tempo on offense. But the Aztecs play a "slow" defensive tempo, shutting down teams for most of the shot clock on average—so the Owls will have a challenge keeping the pace quick.
So far in the tournament San Diego State is playing the 3rd best of the 4 survivors, FAU 4th. But it's a bigger difference when we include all teams' last 4 games—there's quite a gap between the #5 Aztecs and the #28 Owls. No wonder FAU hasn't moved up much in the BPI.
The MegaScreen: Both teams rated as possible Final Four teams, but both were screened out of the Championship Game. San Diego State wasn't rated as a possible runner-up due to their Selection Sunday Pomeroy offense ranking of #67. Florida Atlantic was screened out at the same level for three reason: simply being a 9-seed (no 9-seed has made the final game); having no wins in the last 3 NCAA tournaments; and for their Selection Sunday BPI of #34 being just barely below the qualifying limit. So no matter what happens there will be some tweaks to the MegaScreen to cast a wider net for the title game. That's what a mad March Madness does.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23, =(1)Alabama+7, =(6)Creighton+1
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Alabama+7, =(6)Creighton+1
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
- Other losses (1): New Mexico-9
Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the regular season 20-3. Now at the Elite Eight they've finally won 7 in a row.
The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16 while point guard Darion Trammell had 21 points in the huge upset of 1-seed Alabama. Lamont Butler had 18 as the Aztecs made the Final Four by beating Creighton, holding the Bluejays to 56 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8, =(4)Tennessee+7, =(3)Kansas St.+3
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(4)Tennessee+7, =(3)Kansas St.+3
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4
Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 pre-Dance games are next-level.
Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70. FAU got their biggest win of the year by far—and one of the biggest in the program's history—by beating Tennessee 62-55 behind Davis' 9 of 10 free throw shooting (15 points total). Balanced scoring offset 30 points by K-State's Markquis Nowell as Alijah Martin's 17 led four in double digits to beat the Wildcats 79-76.
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Game Analysis: These are obviously both surprise teams to make the Final Four but it goes beyond that. San Diego State is winning completely with defense as their offensive efficiency has actually slid during the tournament. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic is getting by with narrow wins and weaker opponents. The Owls beat a 16-seed, won two ore games by 4 points total. Their one impressive win was over a very wounded Tennessee team.
FAU is top 25 on offense but San Diego State is #4 on defense. The Aztecs hold opponents to the 2nd lowest 3-point shooting in the nation, but their 2-point defense is surprisingly mediocre (#149) and the Owls may be able to exploit that—if they modify their style which is very 3-point heavy.
San Diego State has a similar problem when on offense: they're up against a better defense. And FAU's defensive percentages are better than SDSU's shooting percentages on both 2 and 3-point field goals.
So while it seems like FAU has an opening on offense and San Diego State might struggle, remember that these stats comparisons aren't adjusted for opposition (other than Pomeroy's efficiency rankings). San Diego State has played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, so the numbers are a bit skewed toward FAU. And San Diego State's defense has been playing even better lately. So while the Aztecs will no doubt struggle on offense, so will the Owls. It might be a very low-scoring game.
Vegas Line:
San Diego State by 2
Power rating: spread
San Diego State by 0.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
San Diego State: 53.1%
Florida Atlantic: 46.9%
5-seeds and 9-seeds have never met in the Final Four, and only three times in the Sweet Sixteen, with the 9-seed winning 2 of the 3. Not a lot to go by, and this one looks like pretty much a tossup of two overachieving teams. When we look at tournament play only, SDSU wins 81% of the time, though, by an average of 8 points.
Bottom line: San Diego State has gotten by with terrible play on offense while Florida Atlantic has gotten by with pretty pedestrian play overall for a Final Four team. The Aztecs are playing next-level defense however and that might be the deciding factor.
Final prediction: San Diego State 67, Florida Atlantic 59
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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