All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
San Diego State Aztecs
Seed: 5
Record: 30-6
Conference: Mountain West
vs.
Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 6
Record: 24-12
Conference: Big East
Date: Sunday, March 26
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Louisville, KY
Channel: CBS
The 2nd 5-seed vs. 6-seed matchup in the 64+ team era.
San Diego St Creighton
Power Ratings
Strength: #19 Strength: #10
Median: #17 Median: #12
Markov: #14 Markov: #11
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #12
Offense: #70 Offense: #22
Defense: #4 Defense: #14
BPI: #15 BPI: #10
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #14
Other Measures:
SOS: #59 SOS: #10
Tempo (Offense): #171 Tempo (Offense): #133
Consistency: #56 Consistency: #154
Str + Reliability: #16 Str + Reliability: #7
Str + Potential: #48 Str + Potential: #16
2nd half season: #17 2nd half season: #6
NCAA Tournament: #3 of 8 NCAA Tournament: #5 of 8
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #9 Final Four: NA
Creighton has a slight edge in all the power ratings, generally falling at #10 or just below, while the Aztecs are in the mid-teens. The starkest differences are on offense and defense where SDSU is an "extreme" team that ranks very well in one area (defense, in this case) but not very well in the other (offense). Creighton is more balanced, so each team will have the edge when they are playing defense.
The Bluejays have been a solid top ten team in gameplay since early January, but for the 3 games of the tournament so far San Diego State is better ranking #3 of the remaining 8 while Creighton is #5. The MegaScreen screened Creighton out of Final Four contention before the tournament started due to their 6-game losing streak, while SDSU was #9 in Final Four consideration—pretty good for a 5-seed which should be #17 to #20 naturally. But the Aztecs didn't pass the screen for potential winners, probably due to their terrible offense.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (14)Kennesaw St.+34, (11)Nevada+9, (10)Utah St.+10, (10)Boise St.+20, @(10)Utah St.+2, =(10)Utah St.+5, =(12)Charleston+6, =(13)Furman+23, =(1)Alabama+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)Alabama+7
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(2)Arizona-17, =(8)Arkansas-OT, =(5)Saint Mary's-7, @(11)Nevada-9, @(10)Boise St.-6
- Other losses (1): New Mexico-9
Overview: San Diego State had a challenging pre-conference season, beating BYU, Stanford, and Ohio State but losing to tournament teams Arizona (2-seed), Arkansas (8-seed, in overtime), and Saint Mary's (5). They went 5-2 against the qualifiers from the Mountain West in a year when that league was essentially the 7th Major conference. The Aztecs never won more than six games in a row so it's easy to overlook that they finished the regular season 20-3. Now at the Elite Eight they've finally won 7 in a row.
The Aztecs spread scoring out very evenly over 9 players; only guard Matt Bradley averages in double figures (12.9) and against Charleston he indeed was the only Aztec in double figures, leading with 17 points. There were even nine players who scored, so they couldn't have lived up to their billing any better. Against Furman Micah Parrish led with 16 while point guard Darion Trammell had 21 points in the huge upset of 1-seed Alabama.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(8)Arkansas+3, (11)Providence+6, (3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(11)N.C. State+9, =(3)Baylor+9, =(15)Princeton+11
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =(8)Arkansas+3, ((3)Xavier+17, (4)Connecticut+3, =(15)Princeton+11
- Losses to tournament teams (9): =(2)Arizona-2, @(2)Texas-5, =(11)Arizona St.-2, @(2)Marquette-11, @(4)Connecticut-9, @(3)Xavier-3, @(11)Providence-OT, (2)Marquette-2, =(3)Xavier-22
- Other losses (3): Nebraska-10, =BYU-3, @Villanova-12
Overview: Creighton was an AP poll darling early and at 6-0 they had already beaten 8-seed Arkansas. Then they went on a 6-games skid and all that goodwill was squandered. They really only played one bad game—the home loss to Nebraska—in that stretch which included three 2-seeds (Arizona, Texas, and Marquette) as well as 11-seed ASU, plus BYU in Las Vegas. Two more losses quickly followed to 4-seed UConn and 3-seed Xavier but they held up in the power ratings so their comeback didn't surprise anyone knowledgable. The Bluejays won 8 straight, beating 11-seed Providence, 3-seed Xavier, and 4-seed UConn before hitting a bit more turbulence in the tough Big East. After three solid wins they got beat 82-60 by Xavier in their final outing which stands as their worst game. But they've come back from adversity before.
7-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner is the team's leading scorer at 15.4 ppg; he was gone for three games during Creighton's 6-game skid, and counting just the game he has played the Bluejays are a top ten team in Strength. The Bluejays bounced back from the big Xavier loss with a solid 72-63 win over NC State behind Kalkbrenner's 31 points (10 of 13 FG). Ryan Nembhard was the star against Baylor, scoring 30 points. Kalkbrenner went 9 of 12 from the field against Princeton and Baylor Scheierman hit 5 of 7 threes for 21 points in the 86-75 win.
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Game Analysis: When a 5-seed and a 6-seed make it to the Elite Eight, something strange is going on, so who can guess what's coming next? San Diego State beat a 1-seed to get here while Creighton beat a 15-seed, the widest spread for any two teams to reach the Elite Eight (I can say that without looking it up because you can't beat a higher seed than a 1-seed and the worst seed to make the Sweet Sixteen is a 15-seed, so it's at least a tie).
Both teams play great defense. San Diego State's is top five per Pomeroy and really defends the 3-point shot well; they're a lot more vulnerable in 2-point land and that's where Creighton shoots best relatively, though. The Aztecs rebound really well on defense too and offensive rebounding is a weakness for the Bluejays.
Creighton's defense doesn't go for turnovers at all (a really low steals %). They rebound great (near top ten) and hardly ever put the other team on the free throw line (#2 there). They defend the 2-point area very well but allow almost 34% from threes—but are good at discouraging 3-point shots (#9 in lowest % of 3-pointers by opponents). San Diego State isn't a good shooting team at all; at best they're average (3-pointers) and poor at worst (2-pointers).
It seems that on offense Creighton should get the ball inside to Kalkbrenner who has shot the lights out in 2 of their 3 games; San Diego State is a pretty short team, though they do have a 6-10 center. The Aztecs like opponents to shoot threes they can't make, especially when that team can't rebound well. That's the trap Creighton has to avoid.
San Diego State's offense is in a bind—as usual—due to poor shooting. If they shot the three well that would be a great solution, but they don't. Still, it's worth considering since that's where Creighton's percentage is the worst, and SDSU's is relatively better. Creighton's foes tend to avoid shooting threes, but shoot fairly quickly. The Aztecs might need to take their time on offense; Creighton's not going to get a turnover.
On paper this looks like a tough assignment for San Diego State. But so did Alabama and the Aztecs found a way to win—one key was that Alabama attempted 27 threes and made just 3 of them. They fell in the trap, will Creighton?
Vegas Line:
Creighton by 2
Power rating: spread
Creighton by 2.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
San Diego St: 41.9%
Creighton: 58.1%
Creighton is the oddsmakers favorite as well as the pick of the Strength power rating, by a very similar spread. Creighton's near-60% chance to win compares favorably to the historical odds of a 6-seed beating a 5-seed which is 0% based on 1 result. Needless to say, 5-seed vs. 6-seed matchups are pretty rare; this is an odd year for March Madness.
Bottom line: At this point neither result is an upset. San Diego State just faced Alabama and Creighton faced Princeton, so things are getting easier for the Aztecs and tougher for the Bluejays.
Final prediction: San Diego State 69, Creighton 65
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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