All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: 9
Record: 34-3
Conference: C-USA
Date: Saturday, March 25
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: New York, NY
Channel: TBS
Only one 9-seed has ever made the Final Four, can FAU be the second?
Kansas State Florida Atlantic
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #23
Median: #28 Median: #26
Markov: #23 Markov: #24
Pomeroy: #21 Pomeroy: #17
Offense: #35 Offense: #26
Defense: #27 Defense: #29
BPI: #30 BPI: #33
LRMC: #30 LRMC: #16
Other Measures:
SOS: #14 SOS: #117
Tempo (Offense): #44 Tempo (Offense): #82
Consistency: #95 Consistency: #120
Str + Reliability: #19 Str + Reliability: #23
Str + Potential: #42 Str + Potential: #46
2nd half season: #23 2nd half season: #40
NCAA Tournament: #6 NCAA Tournament: #8
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #11 Final Four: #10
K-State needed overtime to advance and we've got another close one lined up for them. Florida Atlantic is neck and neck with the Wildcats in Strength and BPI and has pulled ahead in Pomeroy. In the pre-tournament LRMC they are way ahead. The offensive and defensive matchups are both very close, so it should be a very even game on both sides of the court.
It should also be an exciting game with a fast tempo as both teams push the pace to some extent. And both are consistent as well. The big difference between the two is experience playing top teams; K-State is used to playing tough teams back-to-back-to-back whereas FAU has had breathers against lesser competition all year. Will that be the difference?
The MegaScreen has both teams as Final Four considerations on Selection Sunday, not as favorites but right around the top 10 possibilities among 68 teams. Now it's down to one or the other.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(11)Nevada+OT, (9)West Virginia+OT, @(2)Texas+13, @(3)Baylor+OT, (1)Kansas+OT, (6)TCU+21, (6)Iowa St.+6, (3)Baylor+10, =(14)Montana St.+12, =(6)Kentucky+6, =(7)Michigan St.+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(2)Texas+13, =(7)Michigan St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(6)TCU-14, @(6)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-12, (2)Texas-3, @(9)West Virginia-8, =(6)TCU-13
- Other losses (3): @Butler-12, @Texas Tech-8, @Oklahoma-14
Overview: Kansas State wasn't taken seriously early on. They needed overtime to beat 11-seed Nevada and lost to Butler, and their pre-Big Twelve schedule was pretty easy so going 11-1 didn't impress. They beat 9-seed West Virginia in overtime at home but it was the road win at Texas, 116-103, that caught people's attention, and wins over 3-seed Baylor and 1-seed Kansas (both in overtime) didn't hurt.
The 'Cats were 17-2 and hit some turbulence and lost 5 of 7, beating only Florida and 6-seed TCU in that span. But two of the losses were to Kansas and Texas, and K-State righted the ship with a 4-game win streak, adding wins over 6-seed Iowa State and another over Baylor while making quick work of both dangerous Oklahoma teams. They did disappoint a bit at the end, falling to West Virginia and then TCU 80-67 in one of their worst performances, but nothing comes easy in the Big Twelve.
Kansas State is led by forward Keontae Johnson with 17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, while 5-8 point guard Markquise Nowell adds 16.8 points and 7.6 assists. Overall K-State is a very short team, #311 in the country in average height. Johnson had 18 and Nowell 17 in the win over Montana State. In the 75-69 win over Kentucky Nowell led with 27 and the Wildcats overcame a 19-4 deficit in offensive rebounds. Against Michigan State Nowell had an incredible 19 assists as the Wildcats won 98-93 in overtime.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (16)Northern Kentucky+15, =(8)Memphis+1, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+8, =(4)Tennessee+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(4)Tennessee+7
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (3): @Mississippi-13, @UAB-9, @Middle Tennessee-4
Overview: FAU lost early and didn't lose for a long time after that. The road loss to Ole Miss was their last for 20 games. Admittedly there weren't many challenges along the way: Florida, South Alabama, North Texas, and UAB were their toughest tests, and they did get a tournament field win over 16-seed Northern Kentucky. But they won by big margins typically, keeping their power ratings high and tipping off observers that they were a team to keep track of. They lost on the road to UAB and Middle Tennessee and after the latter seemed to kick into high gear. Maybe they were unsure of getting an at-large bid and wanted some certainty? In any case their last 7 pre-Dance games are next-level.
Florida Atlantic spreads out the scoring, with leader Johnell Davis averaging 13.5 per game and 7 others topping 5.0 per game. They play a very short lineup with the exception of 7-1 center Vlad Goldin. Giancarlo Rosado made all six of his field goal attempts in leading the Owls with 15 points in the win over Memphis. Davis caught fire against Fairleigh Dickinson for 29 points as they held off the 16-seed 78-70. FAU got their biggest win of the year by far—and one of the biggest in the program's history—by beating Tennessee 62-55 behind Davis' 9 of 10 free throw shooting (15 points total).
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Game Analysis: Despite the seedings this is a very tight game. 3-seed Kansas State has 9 losses in a killer schedule, while 9-seed FAU has 3 losses in a much easier one. In a 2-day turnaround K-State is much more familiar with playing tough opponents one after the other with few days in-between, as they played in the Big Twelve where every team was in the top 50 more or less. In Conference-USA, only FAU and one or two other teams (UAB and North Texas) were in the top 50 depending on what measure you use. That means the Owls have played from 5 to 7 games against top 50 foes and K-State has played around 20.
This game is not only very close overall but very close on both sides of the court. Their offensive vs. defensive stats are close and where FAU has a slight edge it's probably negligible due to the difference in schedule strength. The only clear advantage for FAU on offense is rebounding, where they excel despite being a shorter team (and are going up against a short team that doesn't rebound well on defense). But even that's hard to gauge because K-State is always the much shorter team in the Big Twelve. The Wildcats may find it easier to rebound than they have all year, or not.
For Kansas State an important advantage is free throw shooting—they shoot 75% to 71.5% for FAU. Not a huge difference but in a very close game that might be the one that matters.
Vegas Line:
Kansas State by 2
Power rating: spread
Kansas State by 0.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas State: 50.7%
Florida Atlantic: 49.3%
This is a razor-thin game, with K-State winning 657 times vs. 638 for FAU in the game-comparison system. Vegas has the Wildcats by 2 while Strength essentially predicts an overtime win for them. 3-seeds have defeated 9-seeds 100% of the time—2 out of 2—but when 9-seed Wichita State went to the Final Four in 2013 they beat 2-seed Ohio State, so maybe that's 1 in 3?
Bottom line: K-State has been the shorter team all year yet has found a way to beat taller teams. FAU has been the short team all year too but generally plays inferior teams. K-State gains the most from this dynamic, but needs another overtime win (they're 5-0 this season) to reach the Final Four.
Final prediction: Kansas State 83, Florida Atlantic 80 OT
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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