All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 3
Record: 31-5
Conference: West Coast
vs.
UConn Huskies
Seed: 4
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big East
Date: Saturday, March 25
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Channel: TBS
A 3-seed and a 4-seed that are both as good as 2-seeds.
Gonzaga UConn
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #4
Median: #7 Median: #6
Markov: #8 Markov: #2
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #3
Offense: #1 Offense: #3
Defense: #73 Defense: #13
BPI: #7 BPI: #5
LRMC: #8 LRMC: #4
Other Measures:
SOS: #65 SOS: #46
Tempo (Offense): #33 Tempo (Offense): #237
Consistency: #286 Consistency: #222
Str + Reliability: #6 Str + Reliability: #3
Str + Potential: #4 Str + Potential: #5
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #6
NCAA Tournament: #4 NCAA Tournament: #1
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: NA Winner: NA
Final Four: #5 Final Four: #6
In just about every number here, 4-seed UConn is just a bit ahead of 3-seed Gonzaga. Strength, 1 place; BPI, 2 places; Pomeroy, 3 places; LRMC, 4 places. The one area where the Zags are better is offense, and UConn is right behind them, and miles better on defense.
UConn had a "lull" in the middle of the season where they underperformed and lost games, and Gonzaga did better overall since the midpoint. But in the three tournament games it's not close, even if Gonzaga is #4 among surviving teams.
According to the MegaScreen neither of these teams can win it all without setting a new low bar in a key area. For Gonzaga that would be defense where they started #76. For UConn, it's the fact that they have no NCAA wins in the prior three tournaments. But both teams were considered strong contenders for a Final Four spot, though being in the same Region makes it difficult to be a favorite.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(7)Michigan St.+1, (6)Kentucky+16, =(3)Xavier+4, (13)Kent St.+7, @(1)Alabama+10, (5)Saint Mary's+9, =(5)Saint Mary's+26, =(14)Grand Canyon+12, =(6)TCU+3, =(2)UCLA+3
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(7)Michigan St.+1, =(3)Xavier+4, @(1)Alabama+10, =(2)UCLA+3
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(2)Texas-19, =(1)Purdue-18, =(3)Baylor-1, @(5)Saint Mary's-OT
- Other losses (1): Loyola Marymount-1
Overview: Gonzaga is always one of the teams to watch, especially in the pre-conference season when they mix it up with some of the nation's best. This year the Zags: beat 7-seed Michigan by one point aboard an aircraft carrier; fell to 2-seed Texas 93-74; and beat 6-seed Kentucky 88-72. And that was just in the first four games! In another 3-game stretch the Bulldogs lost to Purdue, 84-66, beat 3-seed Xavier 88-84 (both in one of the Portland Phil Knight tournaments), and fell to Baylor by a point playing in South Dakota for some reason. Their last big non-conference challenge was overall 1-seed Alabama, whom they beat 100-90 in Birmingham, making them 1-1 against 1-seeds this season.
In the WCC Gonzaga coasted as usual waiting for the big matchup with 5-seed Saint Mary's but were tripped up by Loyola Marymount on the way, breaking their 76-game home win streak (they won the rematch on the road 108-65). They lost in overtime to the Gaels on the road, beat them at home 77-68, then thrashed them 77-51 in their West Coast Conference tournament final.
Senior Drew Timme, who seemingly has been around forever, is the team's leader. He averages 20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Three other Zags average in double figures including Julian Strawther who led against Grand Canyon with 28. Timme had 28 in the 84-81 win over TCU that got the Zags to the Sweet Sixteen for the 8th straight time. Strawther hit a late 3 that killed UCLA, 79-76 behind Timme's 36 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(1)Alabama+15, =(6)Iowa St.+18, (6)Creighton+9, (2)Marquette+15, (11)Providence+18, =(11)Providence+7, =(13)Iona+24, =(5)Saint Mary's+15, =(8)Arkansas+23
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Alabama+15, (6)Creighton+9, =(8)Arkansas+23
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Xavier-10, @(11)Providence-12, @(2)Marquette-6, (3)Xavier-3, @(6)Creighton-3, =(2)Marquette-2
- Other losses (2): St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-1
Overview: As mentioned UConn was the best team in the country until late December; they had beaten 1-seed Alabama 82-67and 6-seed Iowa State in Portland and raced to a 14-0 start. But around game 13 they downshifted a gear it seems; the wins over Georgetown (84-73) and Villanova (74-66) at home weren't dominant. Sure enough, losses followed, most but not all to tournament teams. In all they lost 6 of 8 before slowly recovering their mojo. Finally at the end they put together another solid win streak of six games that ended in a 2-point loss to 2-seed Marquette. Have they truly regained their early season form? The first two games of the tournament say yes, and it's really hard to argue after the Arkansas game.
6-9 forward Adama Sanogo is the team's leader in points (16.8) and rebounds (7.3). The Huskies are a tall team, who often have every player on the court at 6-5 or over and also have a 7-2 backup center. UConn beat Iona behind Sanogo's 28 points (on 13 of 17 shooting). The Huskies were even more impressive against St. Mary's, winning 70-55 against the tough 5-seed; this time Sanogo had 24 on 11 of 16 shooting. Jordan Hawkins led with 24 including 9 of 9 free throws in the 88-65 blowout of Arkansas.
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Game Analysis: My pre-tournament question about UConn is whether they'd recovered the form that had them at #1—in the AP poll and all the power ratings—or whether it was just a temporary, late-season surge of a few games. With each passing game of the tournament, the answer appears to be yes, UConn is playing as well as they did before the Big East season started.
The question for Gonzaga has been, how deep can they go before their poor defense catches up with them? It almost did against UCLA, where the Bruins took a 13-point halftime lead, but the Zags offense is so good they pulled out a win against a great team. UConn's offense is even better than UCLA's so that might make things worse; on the other hand, UConn's defense isn't quite UCLA's level, so the Zags have a chance to keep rolling due to their offensive play.
Gonzaga's shooting is top ten from both outside and inside the arc, while UConn's defense is top 20 in both zones. Rebounding looks about even on this side of the court. The one thing that stands out is UConn's propensity to foul, but the Zags only offensive weakness is poor free throw shooting (just under 70%).
The Huskies shoot 76% from the line, and shoot well overall though not nearly as well as Gonzaga. But on defense the Zags are terrible defenders, allowing over 50% in 2-point range and over 35% from threes.
Vegas Line:
UConn by 2
Power rating: spread
UConn by 1.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 45.3%
UConn: 54.7%
Showing just how close Vegas hews to power rating pronouncements, the sportsbooks favor UConn just as the Strength power rating does, by a bit more in fact. It's clearly a close game though, and our odds give Gonzaga over a 45% chance to win. Interestingly of the 5 times 3-seeds have faced 4-seeds, the 4-seed has won 3 times, or 60%.
Bottom line: UConn is back to their early season form and is a real threat to win it all now. They've played a better game than Gonzaga each round so far.
Final prediction: UConn 84, Gonzaga 75
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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