All previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 29-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 5
Record: 28-7
Conference: ACC
Date: Sunday, March 26
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Kansas City, MO
Channel: CBS
Texas vs. Miami would have been a great football game in 1983, 1993, or 2003, but it's worth a trip to the Final Four in 2023.
Texas Miami
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #33
Median: #8 Median: #26
Markov: #5 Markov: #15
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #26
Offense: #15 Offense: #6
Defense: #10 Defense: #104
BPI: #6 BPI: #31
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #41
Other Measures:
SOS: #8 SOS: #77
Tempo (Offense): #60 Tempo (Offense): #113
Consistency: #246 Consistency: #99
Str + Reliability: #4 Str + Reliability: #26
Str + Potential: #6 Str + Potential: #59
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #29
NCAA Tournament: #4 NCAA Tournament: #2
MegaScreen MegaScreen
Winner: #4 Winner: NA
Final Four: #7 Final Four: NA
It's easy to see which team is overperforming to make the Elite Eight. Texas has the look of a 2-seed in every way, and their great balance on offense and defense—top 15 in both categories—is the profile of an NCAA tournament champion. Miami, despite their solid wins recently, ranks mid-20s to low-30s in the power ratings (save a #15 appearance in Markov) and is still saddled with a sub-100 ranking in defensive efficiency.
But only this game matters, and in the tournament so far Miami has been the more impressive of the two. Of course, they had to be in order to beat 1-seed Houston. In reality both teams won two games by double digits, which is all you can hope for, and each had a fairly close call with an inferior team (Penn State, and Drake). So it's hard to really use those 3 games to definitively say who has performed better.
Miami's terrible defense score screened them out of Final Four consideration by the MegaScreen on Selection Sunday, while Texas passed all the screens up to the winner's circle—the only team left to make the final cut.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (15): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, (13)Louisiana+28, (6)TCU+4, @(9)West Virginia+8, (3)Baylor+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, (9)West Virginia+34, (6)Iowa St.+18, (1)Kansas+16, =(6)TCU+6, =(1)Kansas+20, =(15)Colgate+20, =(10)Penn St.+5, =(3)Xavier+12
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (3)Gonzaga+19, (6)Creighton+5, @(3)Kansas St.+3, =(3)Xavier+12
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(9)Illinois-OT, (3)Kansas St.-13, @(6)Iowa St.-11, @(4)Tennessee-11, @(1)Kansas-8, @(3)Baylor-9, @(6)TCU-2
- Other losses (1): @Texas Tech-7
Overview: Texas showed early they would be a force to be reckoned with, beating 3-seed Gonzaga 93-74 and early AP poll darling 6-seed Creighton as well. They lost to 9-seed Illinois in overtime however, just before coach Chris Beard was dismissed. Texas played their worst game that very day, an overtime home win over Rice (game 9). Rodney Terry coached the team from that moment forward and by and large they didn't miss a beat, battling through the tough-as-nails Big Twelve. They split with 3-seed Baylor and 3-seed Kansas State as well as 1-seed Kansas before beating the Jayhawks in the rubber match to finish the season strong.
Point guard Marcus Carr leads four starters in double figures with 15.9ppg; he also leads in assists and steals. In the win over Colgate Sir'Jabari Rice was the leader with 23 points. Dylan Disu made 14 of 20 shots for 28 points as the Longhorns held on to top Penn State, 71-66. Texas reached the Elite Eight with a win over Xavier, 83-71, as the Longhorns took control in the first half; five players scored all but one point led by Tyrese Hunter's 19.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(11)Providence+10, (11)N.C. State+7, (4)Virginia+2, (5)Duke+22, (11)Pittsburgh+2, =(12)Drake+7, =(4)Indiana+16, =(1)Houston+14
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)Houston+14
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(8)Maryland-18, @(11)N.C. State-OT, @(5)Duke-2, @(11)Pittsburgh-3, =(5)Duke-7
- Other losses (2): @Georgia Tech-6, Florida St.-1
Overview: Miami popped off to a 13-1 start, beating 11-seed Providence in the pre-conference season as well as UCF and Rutgers while losing only to 8-seed Maryland. They beat 11-seed NC State and 4-seed Virginia before a stunning loss to 15-18 Georgia Tech started a 4-4 skid. All those losses were on the road and the Canes marched on, winning 7 straight including an 81-59 win over 5-seed Duke (the only tournament team in that stretch). Then came the FSU debacle, their first home loss, to a 9-23 team, on a last-second heartbreaking shot by their hated rival. It seems to have done something to them.
The Hurricanes didn't play well at all at the very end. It wasn't just the Duke loss in the final game—where they lost Norchad Omier early in the contest—but all of their last four games: the home loss to Florida State, the 2-point home win over 11-seed Pitt, the 2-point win over Wake Forest—all were basically as bad as the Duke loss. Omier ended up playing during the NCAA tournament after all.
Miami's scoring leader is senior guard Isaiah Wong who leads the team with 16.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Nigel Pack scored 21 in the win over Drake. The Hurricanes then blew away Indiana late, 85-69, behind Wong's 27 points. They topped that by upsetting 1-seed Houston 89-75 as Pack scored 26 points.
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Game Analysis: Miami's defense continues to defy history, breaking into the Elite Eight with a shot at the Final Four. Worse defenses have made the Elite Eight so things aren't out of whack yet, but no defense this bad has made the Final Four in during the existence of Ken Pomeroy's site (and I'm using pre-conference figures, not post-tournament like most people pointlessly cite). It doesn't matter that Miami's defense has improved to #104 over the last three games, it's the starting value that counts for the historical record.
But if Miami is indeed suddenly playing much better defense, then it doesn't matter for the purposes of picking this game. Miami allowed 56, 69, and 75 against Drake, Indiana, and Houston, with expected values of 73, 79, and 76, an average reduction of 9.33 points, which would make Miami's defense the #15 defense in the country (approximately) during the tournament so far. That's good enough to compete with anyone, but has there really been this sudden improvement? Or is this just a small sample of games where Miami has played very well overall?
On offense Miami is unquestionably good and has been for the whole season. When they have the ball it's a battle of top ten teams and essentially a stalemate, though Miami has stronger rebounding relatively.
When Texas has the ball it's either a mismatch (by full-season stats) or another even battle (over the last few games). In the mismatch scenario, Texas particularly has an edge inside the arc where they shoot very well and Miami defends poorly. Over the last 3 games Miami's 2-point defense has been exceptional: 47%, which would put them around #50 instead of #240 where they rank for all games.
Vegas Line:
Texas by 3 1/2
Power rating: spread
Texas by 7.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas: 68.4%
Miami: 31.6%
This is where recent play really starts to get worked into the spread: the Elite Eight. After three tournament games any team that's here has "proven" themselves and what they did before the tournament matters less. For the Strength power rating the whole season is considered and Texas is 7 points better and is a 68% favorite. For the 3 games of the tournament, Miami has been 4.3 points better. Vegas nearly adds the two together to get a 3.5 point spread.
2-seeds have faced 5-seeds five times and 4 of 5 times the 5-seed has won. The only win for the 2-seed happened last year when Villanova beat Houston. So history is on Miami's side in that small sample.
Bottom line: At some point Miami's defensive deficiency has to be exploited, right? I've had Miami losing every round and they keep winning. But I've had Texas winning every round and they keep winning too. Something's gotta give when I pick the Longhorns here.
Final prediction: Texas 78, Miami 75
More previews: click here for the full 2023 NCAA tournament schedule.
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