Here are the week's biggest upsets so far (through February 9) and how they might affect these teams' NCAA seeding, based on Monday's Dance Chance (Feb 6). Listings show record and seed projection prior to the upset
Arkansas 88, Kentucky 73
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 39. Arkansas 16-7 20-11 SEC 68.0 10 40. Kentucky 16-7 20-11 SEC 66.2 10
These teams were part of a 6-team SEC logjam in the 10-12 seed range, and Kentucky was supposed to narrowly win this one. Instead the Razorbacks won going away, which should really create some separation. Arkansas should go back to a 9-seed while Kentucky's prospects as a 19-12 team will be precarious.
Wake Forest 92, North Carolina 85
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 34. North Carolina 15-8 22-9 ACC 76.8 9 77. Wake Forest 15-9 18-13 ACC 4.2
North Carolina's woes continue. The Tar Heels will project to 21-10 at best which is not great for the ACC this year. Wake Forest didn't have great odds going in and being 19-12 won't cut it but the win gives them hope that a good tournament run might be enough.
Nevada 77, New Mexico 76
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 24. New Mexico 19-4 26-5 MWC 93.2 6 35. Nevada 18-6 23-8 MWC 75.0 9
A big result in the Mountain West, where five teams are "in" right now but the conference might only get four of them. New Mexico has been our designated leader for a while but this result narrows things up.
San Diego St. 63, Utah St. 61
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 29. Utah St. 19-5 26-5 MWC 85.6 8 37. San Diego St. 18-5 22-8 MWC 71.5 10
Another significant result in the MWC. San Diego State has some tough games ahead so getting this win was key, and probably pulls them even with Utah State, who has winnable games the rest of the way.
Vanderbilt 66, Tennessee 65
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 3. Tennessee 19-4 27-4 SEC 99.9 1 130. Vanderbilt 11-12 12-19 SEC 1.1
The upset of the week so far. Vandy hit the jackpot against the Vols, whose aim at a 1-seed takes a big hit. The Commodores' slim odds will increase but it's still going to take a miracle.
Boston College 82, Virginia Tech 76
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 47. Virginia Tech 14-9 21-10 ACC 51.7 12p 207. Boston College 11-13 12-19 ACC <0.1
Virginia Tech was the Last Team In on Monday, and this will drop them out of the seeding projection for sure. Boston College didn't have any real hope before this win, and probably still won't.
Northwestern 69, Ohio St. 63
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 45. Ohio St. 11-12 16-15 B10 57.4 11p 53. Northwestern 16-7 17-14 B10 44.9
Ohio State's slide continues unabated, and this loss might drop them from the Last Four In to below the First Four Out, as they will project to a losing record now which won't even get you into the NIT. Northwestern on the other hand might take the Buckeyes' place.
Loyola Marymount 78, Saint Mary's 74 (OT)
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds Seed 21. Saint Mary's 21-4 26-5 WCC 94.3 6 90. Loyola Marymount 16-9 18-12 WCC 2.9
This upset in the West Coast Conference is St. Mary's first loss in 13 games. The Gaels are set back a bit in their effort to win the WCC regular season title but they're still a pretty sure thing for March. Loyola Marymount was down to about a 3% chance and won't jump into the seedings just yet, but they've beaten both Gonzaga and St. Mary's which gives them renewed hope of being the league's 2nd at-large bid.
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