This week was full of upsets, here's how it changed things in the Dance Chance since a week ago:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 1. Purdue 23-3 28-3 B10 100.0 +0.0 1 1 2. Texas 20-5 25-6 B12 99.9 +0.0 1 1 3. Alabama 22-3 27-4 SEC 99.9 +0.0 1 1 4. Kansas 20-5 24-7 B12 99.9 +0.2 1 2
Just a few day after Purdue locked up the coveted "100%" designation by beating Iowa, the Boilermakers lost to Northwestern on the road, 64-58. They're still at 100% of course—you can't waver from 100%, otherwise you wouldn't be at 100%—but they fall into a virtual 3-way tie with surging Texas and current overall #1 team Alabama. The overall #1 seed from any of these three is up for grabs, but Alabama will take it if they beat Tennessee on Wednesday.
Texas lost to Kansas on the road last Monday but their comeback win over West Virginia (94-60!) was so impressive it bumped their projection to 25-6. That's a great record for a Big Twelve team, and that conference now has two #1 seeds as Kansas joins courtesy of the Texas win and the followup 78-55 crushing of Oklahoma. Having two 1-seeds is still unlikely after the Big Twelve tournament but this makes it more certain that the league will have one even if they keep knocking each other off.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 5. Houston 23-2 29-2 Amer 99.9 0.0 2 2 6. Kansas St. 19-6 23-8 B12 99.9 +1.3 2 3 7. Baylor 19-6 23-8 B12 99.9 +2.8 2 4 8. UCLA 21-4 27-4 P12 99.9 +0.6 2 2 9. Tennessee 19-6 25-6 SEC 99.9 0.0 3 1 10. Gonzaga 21-5 26-5 WCC 99.6 +1.7 3 3 11. Arizona 22-4 26-5 P12 99.2 +0.2 3 2
ex-1-seed Tennessee drops to a 3-seed after losing twice last week. Both games had a similar ending: the Volunteers looks almost certain to win with a minute to go, then make a few terrible mistakes, and Vanderbilt and Missouri hit last-second winning shots. Only a week ago they were right up there with Alabama, now it looks like the Tide will be a 1-seed even if the Vols beat them in the rematch as expected.
Houston was briefly a 1-seed mid-week and they've got a great shot at it, as only one Big Twelve team can win their tournament. And the top Pac-12 teams keep flubbing, too. UCLA had a decent week but Arizona lost at Stanford, their 4th loss to a mediocre team this season; the Wildcats dip to a 3-seed.
And of course there are two Big Twelve teams here as Kansas State and Baylor move up. The former actually lost to Texas Tech on Saturday, but their 21-point win over TCU last Tuesday more than compensated for it I guess. In any case they move up a seed, while Baylor moves up 2 seeds after handling Oklahoma and upsetting TCU on the road. There's a lot more to go in the Big Twelve just in the regular season: on Saturday Baylor faces Kansas and Kansas State takes on Iowa State.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 12. Connecticut 19-7 24-7 BE 98.9 +2.4 3 4 13. Indiana 18-7 22-9 B10 98.5 +1.7 4 4 14. TCU 17-8 21-10 B12 98.1 -0.1 4 3 15. Iowa St. 16-8 19-11 B12 97.8 +0.2 4 3 16. Virginia 19-4 24-5 ACC 97.4 +2.1 4 5 17. Rutgers 16-9 22-9 B10 97.1 +1.0 5 4 18. Marquette 20-6 24-7 BE 96.7 +2.1 5 5 19. Florida Atlantic 24-2 29-2 CUSA 96.3 +0.6 5 5 20. Creighton 17-8 23-8 BE 96.0 +2.1 5 6 21. Xavier 19-6 23-8 BE 95.6 +0.6 6 5
More Big Eight: TCU and Iowa State both drop a seed as the pecking order changes. As mentioned the Horned Frogs dropped two games (to K-State and Baylor) and Iowa State fells to West Virginia and Oklahoma State, the latter game in both cases being an upset loss. The Cyclones have been awful since we had them at a 1-seed three weeks ago, going 2-4, but they did get wins over Kansas and Kansas State since then. Just shows how tough the Big Twelve is this year.
The Big East is an interesting conference too. In the Dance Chance UConn is still tops, nudging up to a 3-seed despite the road loss to Creighton which was expected. They also beat Marquette at home convincingly, 87-72. The Golden Eagles remain a 5-seed, the #2 Big East team here and the leader in the conference standings. Creighton, winner of eight straight, moves up to a 5-seed while Xavier drops a seed following an upset loss to Butler.
Virginia trucks along in the ACC, beating NC State and (controversially) Duke at home last week. The Cavs move back up to a 4-seed which may still seem low but the ACC doesn't have many good win opportunities. If they win the ACC tournament they'll be at least a 3-seed, but does the winner of the ACC deserve even a 2-seed?
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 22. Illinois 17-7 21-10 B10 95.2 +1.7 6 6 23. Saint Mary's 22-5 25-6 WCC 94.9 +0.6 6 6 24. Missouri 19-6 24-7 SEC 94.5 +30.1 6 11 25. Miami FL 20-5 23-7 ACC 94.1 +5.0 7 7 26. Nevada 20-6 24-7 MWC 92.2 +17.2 7 9 27. West Virginia 15-10 18-13 B12 90.4 -2.4 7 7 28. San Diego St. 20-5 23-7 MWC 88.6 +17.1 7 10 29. Iowa 16-9 20-11 B10 86.7 -0.6 8 7 30. Duke 17-8 22-9 ACC 84.9 -5.9 8 7 31. N.C. State 20-6 24-7 ACC 83.1 +4.6 8 9 32. Boise St. 19-6 24-7 MWC 81.3 -2.5 8 8
Missouri is the big mover in the Dance Chance, up from a bubble-worthy 11-seed to a solid 6-seed. That last-second shot against Tennessee is what did it (they also narrowly beat lowly South Carolina last week). Basically a road win over the Vols or Tide is the biggest prize in the SEC, and now Missouri looks closer to a lock than they do to a question mark. They have three tough games coming up (Auburn and Texas A&M this week), followed by three easier opponents who they mustn't overlook.
Nevada and San Diego State turned the Mountain West race upside-down last week. Of the five teams in close contention for the best seed, these two were at the 4th and 5th position. But the Wolf Pack upset New Mexico on the road on a last-second shot and bumped themselves up 2 seeds. Those last-second shots have huge implications! The Aztecs beat another contender, Utah State, on the road, holding on for a 2-point win and moving up three seeds. They still have the toughest schedule of the five MWC teams but so far they're navigating it pretty well. Boise State held their spot, avoiding the chaos around them in the conference.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 33. Oklahoma St. 16-9 17-14 B12 79.5 +9.8 9 10 34. Maryland 17-8 21-10 B10 77.7 -2.6 9 8 35. Northwestern 18-7 20-11 B10 75.9 +31.0 9 36. Michigan St. 16-9 20-11 B10 74.1 +24.9 9 37. Arkansas 17-8 20-11 SEC 72.3 +4.3 10 10 38. North Carolina 16-9 21-10 ACC 70.5 -6.3 10 9 39. New Mexico 19-6 24-7 MWC 68.7 -24.5 10 6 40. Providence 18-7 22-9 BE 66.9 -15.2 10 8 41. Oral Roberts 23-4 27-4 Sum 65.1 -8.2 11 9 42. Mississippi St. 17-8 22-9 SEC 63.2 +4.1 11 11p 43. Utah St. 19-7 24-7 MWC 61.4 -24.1 11 8 44. Auburn 17-8 20-11 SEC 59.6 -3.0 11p 11
The losers in the Mountain West are in this group: New Mexico, seemingly in charge a few weeks ago, lost not only to Nevada but also to Air Force and has now dropped 4 of their last 5; they fall from a 6-seed to a 10-seed. And Utah State drops 3 seeds to an 11-seed; after the SDSU loss they were upset by San Jose State.
The 9-seed line belongs to the Big Ten this week with two newcomers storming in. Northwestern's huge upset of Purdue followed a big win at Ohio State; the combination of these took them from a lower-bubble team to a solid 76% chance. Likewise for Michigan State: the Spartans are finally back in our countdown (they've been gone since week 4) after beating Maryland (who falls a seed from 8- to 9-) and Ohio State. They now sport a 20-11 projection which is the best they've looked in a while, and up from 18-13 last week.
Last week there was a 6-team SEC logjam here, three teams more or less stayed put: Arkansas, who upset Kentucky on the road but then were upset by Mississippi State at home; and Mississippi State, who beat LSU in addition to the Razorbacks but didn't move the needle much for whatever reason; and Auburn, who lost two games they were expected to lose (Texas A&M on the road, Alabama at home). Of the other three teams, Missouri jumped to a 6-seed while Kentucky and Florida fell slightly as seen below:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 45. Pittsburgh 18-7 22-9 ACC 57.8 +11.2 11p 46. Memphis 19-6 23-8 Amer 54.7 +4.8 12p 47. Kentucky 16-9 18-13 SEC 51.6 -14.6 12p 10 48. Oregon 15-11 19-12 P12 49.8 +1.4 49. Texas A&M 18-7 20-11 SEC 49.3 +8.0 50. Southern Miss 23-4 27-4 SB 48.8 +0.2 12 12 51. Florida 13-12 18-13 SEC 48.6 -12.3 11 52. Kent St. 20-5 26-5 MAC 46.8 +7.3 12 12 53. Charleston 24-3 28-3 CAA 45.0 +7.2 12 12 54. USC 17-8 20-11 P12 43.2 -11.3 12p
The top of the bubble: Kentucky has dropped off many (if not most) brackets but here the Wildcats hold on as the Last Team In despite upset losses to Arkansas at home and Georgia. They fell from a 20-11 projection to 18-13 but only lost 15% odds interestingly enough. At any rate they remain a bubble team, as does Florida who is now in the First Four Out after two losses, one excusable (Alabama, road), the other not (Vandy at home). They're now lower in odds than Texas A&M, who beat Auburn and LSU and has now won 12 of 14 and is #2 in the conference standings. They're not in The Bracket Project's consensus bracket either, so it's not just the Dance Chance having an outlier: the five non-conference losses hurt, including two bad losses (Murray State, Wofford), and their toughest SEC stretch is yet to come. They're also only #43 in Strength and half of their SEC wins are over the worst teams in the league. Still, they're right on the bubble now.
Speaking of conference leaders, Pittsburgh is now co-leader in the ACC believe it or not. Like Texas A&M they're on a good run (7 of 8), but don't rank very high in Strength (#64), and have four conference wins over very bad teams. They're expected to finish strong mainly because they face three more rotten teams down the stretch. But in their case, the wins over Louisville and Florida State were miraculously enough to put them on the Play-in line.
Memphis jumps in as a 12-seed play-in after two wins, while USC falls from the Last Team In to the Last of the First Four Out after losing to both Oregon teams on the road. Losing to Oregon (the First of the First Four Out, now) isn't a big deal but Oregon State is 10-16, so they're lucky they didn't fall more.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 55. Utah 17-9 18-13 P12 41.4 +5.4 56. North Texas 21-5 26-5 CUSA 39.6 +5.3 57. Seton Hall 15-11 17-14 BE 37.8 -5.3 58. Sam Houston St. 18-6 24-6 WAC 36.0 +3.5 13 13 59. Virginia Tech 15-10 20-11 ACC 34.2 -17.5 12p 60. Utah Valley 20-6 25-6 WAC 32.4 +6.9 61. Wisconsin 14-10 16-14 B10 30.6 +6.8 62. UAB 18-8 23-8 CUSA 28.7 +6.8 63. Arizona St. 18-8 20-11 P12 26.9 +6.8 64. Colorado 14-12 16-15 P12 25.1 -3.9 65. UCF 15-9 20-10 Amer 23.3 +13.7 66. Liberty 21-6 25-6 ASun 21.5 +3.1 13 13 67. Ohio St. 11-14 14-17 B10 19.7 -37.7 11p
Bottom of the bubble: These teams range from 20% to 40% odds, not good enough to be happy about their situation but not bad enough to lose hope. But VIrginia Tech is going the wrong way, falling off the Last Four In after a bad home loss to 12-14 Boston College.
Almost every other team in this section is moving up this week which is just a fluke. But not Ohio State; the Buckeyes have completed their long, drawn-out fall from a projected 3-seed at the beginning of the calendar year to a Play-In team to just plain OUT. For a while they were losing but playing pretty well, and seemed to stanch the bleeding with a win over Iowa, but the losses mounted to such an extant that it broke them, evidenced by the 62-41 home loss to Michigan State. For the first time they're projected to finish with a losing record.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 68. Bradley 19-8 23-8 MVC 17.9 +4.8 13 13 77. Dayton 17-9 22-9 A10 3.4 +0.1 13 78. VCU 18-7 24-7 A10 3.3 -8.1 13 80. Yale 17-6 21-6 Ivy 3.1 -0.9 14 14 83. Iona 18-7 24-7 MAAC 2.9 -0.7 14 14 86. Furman 21-6 25-6 SC 2.6 +0.0 14 14 90. UC Irvine 17-8 23-9 BW 2.3 -0.8 14 14 108. Eastern Washington 19-7 24-7 BSky 1.3 -0.4 15 111. Montana St. 18-9 21-10 BSky 1.2 -0.5 15 114. Youngstown St. 20-7 24-7 Horz 1.2 -0.6 15 15 115. Colgate 19-8 23-8 Pat 1.1 -0.3 15 15 133. Vermont 15-10 19-11 AE 0.7 -0.2 15 16 141. Northwestern St. 18-8 22-9 Slnd 0.5 -0.5 16 15 147. Gardner Webb 15-11 18-12 BSth 0.3 +0.2 16 150. North Carolina Central 11-11 17-11 MEAC 0.2 0.0 16p 16p 156. Grambling St. 16-8 22-8 SWAC 0.1 -0.1 16p 16p 159. UNC Asheville 20-7 22-9 BSth <0.1 -0.3 161. Longwood 18-9 21-10 BSth <0.1 -0.4 162. Radford 17-10 20-11 BSth <0.1 -0.6 16 188. SIU Edwardsville 17-10 20-11 OVC <0.1 0.0 16p 16p 280. Wagner 13-10 15-12 NEC <0.1 0.0 16p 16p
The 1-bids: The closest contest here is Dayton passing VCU very narrowly for our projected bid from the Atlantic 10, after the Flyers beat the Rams in Richmond 62-58. And Eastern Washington has won 15 straight, going 13-0 in the Big Sky as they pass Montana State. That one seems permanent.
And Gardner Webb takes over in the Big South after beating Radford. The Highlanders drop past UNC Asheville and Longwood, too. Those four teams are at the top of the Big South standings and hopefully all make it to the Final Four of the conference tournament to settle things there.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(2/05) 153. Penn 14-11 16-13 Ivy 0.2 +0.2
The only team that comes "back from dead" this week is Penn. The Quakers beat Harvard on the road, their 5th win in a row after a 2-4 start in the Ivy League. I really don't think it gives them a 1 in 500 shot at an at-large bid but the Dance Chance is nothing if not lenient. Anyway it signifies progress out of hopelessness, and maybe they're on their way to a conference title, now that the Ivy has a conference tournament (limited to the top four teams, so Penn has to keep winning as they're tied for #3, with six teams within two games of #1).
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