Four prominent teams have hit the skids lately. The biggest case is Connecticut, who has lost 5 of their last 6 games. So has Arkansas. Meanwhile Ohio State and LSU have lost 5 in a row. These teams started the season a combined 47-5!
The pattern here seems to be: a team with a long win streak or a lot of success inevitably loses a game or two, usually on the road to good teams. This is normal, but it somehow plays on the team's emotions, and eventually they lose a game to a bad team, maybe even at home, making it very clear that something is actually wrong. That's when the trouble takes root.
Which of these teams are really in trouble? Is it just due to schedule or starting the conference season? Let's look at each one and see where and why they went wrong, and what they look like going forward.
- Connecticut (15-5). Start: 14-0; Recent: 0-5
Just a few weeks ago they were the overall top seed in our Dance Chance seeding and #1 in the Strength power rating. Now they're a 2-seed and falling, and out of the top 5 in Pomeroy. This one is the biggest puzzle since UConn had its success with a very tough schedule, beating Alabama 82-67 and Iowa State 71-53 in the Phil Knight Invitational.
Fairly narrow home wins over Georgetown and Villanova put them at 14-0 but were also their first signs of not being dominant. The Huskies first losses followed, to Xavier and Providence, both on the road. They rebounded with a solid home win over Creighton and it looked like nothing was amiss. They fell to Marquette but again, that loss was to a good team and on the road. The St. John's loss was the kicked—the Red Storm aren't very good, and they beat UConn in Storrs, and by 11 points. And last night UConn blew a 14-point lead at Seton Hall and lost, 67-66.
So it appears something is wrong with the Huskies. They went from being dominant against a very tough schedule to being a middling Big East team practically overnight. The home loss to St. John's was telling—the team just doesn't have the drive it had in the pre-season. Having reached the top, they lost their hunger to prove they were a great team, and currently they aren't.
Going forward: This one's a mystery. They were the best team in the country and while they could come back from their recent setbacks, it doesn't bode well for March. And a complete collapse isn't out of the question, as it has happened to teams like this before. Over the last 6 games they're playing like the #62 team in the country. UConn plays Butler at home next and they need to win that or their season is in jeopardy. A follow-up win over Xavier (also at home) would show they're still one of the top Big East teams. If they win those, they have a break with DePaul and Georgetown and would have a 4-game win streak and maybe they can put this bad spell in the past. But lose either of those two and their problems are back full force. - Arkansas (12-6) Start: 11-1; Recent: 1-5
The Razorbacks have been as high as a 4-seed in our estimation but have fallen to a 10-seed and after last night's loss to Missouri might be headed lower. They have wins over San Diego State, Oklahoma, and Bradley but problems started with the SEC season. They fell to LSU, and after a home win over Missouri they lost to Auburn and Alabama back-to-back. The bad loss was at Vanderbilt, 97-84.
All of this has dropped them from #9 in Pomeroy to their current #22. But in Strength over the last 6 games they're playing like the #108 team in the nation. So while some of the problem is tougher schedule, they've clearly played worse basketball lately.
Going forward: Arkansas never looked like an elite team, so the losses to Auburn and Alabama (at home) weren't upsets. And 4 of the 5 losses were on the road. But losing streaks tend to make a team doubt itself, and Arkansas didn't have much room for that against a tough SEC schedule. They need to get a win on Saturday at home vs. Mississippi and another vs. LSU three days later; a two-game win streak would set them back to playing like an above-average SEC team rather than a below-average one. - Ohio State (10-8) Start: 10-3; Recent: 0-5
The Buckeyes were a surging Big Ten team and the wheels fell off right then. Ohio State was 10-3 with losses only to San Diego State, Duke, and North Carolina (in overtime) and started the Big Ten season 2-0. At that point (January 1) they were #6 in Strength, best in the Big Ten, and had jumped to a 3-seed favored to be 26-5 game-by-game.
They hosted Purdue and lost by 2 points which is not a bad showing (and moved them from #11 to #9 in Pomeroy). They subsequently lost to Maryland on the road, again not a terrible performance, but when they fell to Minnesota 70-67 at home, that was the signpost of their decline. The Gophers were (and are) the worst team in the Big Ten by quite a bit. The Buckeyes played well at Rutgers and nearly beat the Scarlet Knights, falling in overtime, but followed that with a loss at Nebraska.
Ohio State's non-conference schedule was loaded with cupcake teams, and they lost to the best three teams they faced outside the Big Ten. So despite how high they ranked, they hadn't—and haven't—shown the ability to beat a top team. In that respect their skid isn't surprising as the Big Ten is a tough conference, but they've played the two worst teams in the conference and lost to them. That means something else is wrong; they aren't handling adversity well. They're #79 over the last 5 games in Strength.
Going forward: The Buckeyes host Iowa, another up-and-down team that is currently getting a rest due to Northwestern's Covid issues. That game will tell us a lot about where the team is headed, and after that they travel to Illinois and Indiana. They have a pretty tough road ahead compared to the other slumping teams. If they go 3-0 it will mean a lot, but they could just as easily (or more likely) go 0-3 even if they play well. - LSU (12-6) Start: 12-1 Recent: 0-5
The Tigers were a surprising 11-1 team in late December when they hosted Arkansas, and even more surprisingly they won that game to start 12-1. Since their pre-conference schedule was so weak (10 of 12 teams ranked worst than #100 in Pomeroy) the Tigers weren't highly thought of in the polls or power ratings, while Arkansas was. But they Tigers had only lost to Kansas State so there was a chance that they were going to be for real.
They started 2023 with a loss at Kentucky and Texas A&M; followed by a home loss to Florida, a road loss to Alabama, and another home loss—67-49—to Auburn last night. None of those are bad teams but many of them—Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida—aren't great this year. And while losing to Alabama this year is nothing to be ashamed of, a 106-66 loss is always something to be ashamed of.
Going forward: The truth is that LSU just isn't very good. They weren't good at 12-1, despite the Arkansas win, and at 12-6 their record is more representative of their level. On January 1—after the Arkansas win—the Tigers were just #105 in Strength. Now at 12-6 they've slipped to #127. So I actually expect this skid to continue, and to turn into what will look like a "collapse". But in this case it's not a collapse, it will just be LSU playing as they should. Attempting to avert that, they have a very tough challenge up next: Tennessee at home. Looking wounded, maybe they can ambush the Vols and upset them? Even then, they'll have a lot more to prove. Look for LSU to finish around .500 this season and hope for an NIT bid.
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