Some major upsets this weekend, as two projected 1-seeds lost at home to teams that were becoming longshots to make the tournament.
On Saturday Kentucky, whose season was fading fast, rebounded in a major way by beating possibly the best team in the nation on their home court. The Wildcats topped Tennessee 63-56 as an 18-point underdog by the Strength power rating where the Vols were #1.
Then on Sunday UConn continued their slide with a stunning 85-74 home loss to unheralded St. John's. Not long ago the Huskies were the top overall seed in the Dance Chance and were still a 1-seed as of Thursday. But after a 14-0 start Connecticut has lost 4 of 5 games and it's clearly seeping into the psychological arena. UConn was also an 18 point favorite.
It's a big turnaround for Kentucky, who was coming off a home loss to South Carolina and was receiving near-obituaries in the press for their season. Probably that's what spurred them to this major upset win which could turn their season around. Just based on this win the Wildcats, who were down to a 7% chance to make the tournament in our Dance Chance, will become a seeded bubble team at the very least, while Tennessee will drop to at least a 2-seed.
St. John's had even lower tournament odds at just 2.9%. They might not immediately be seeded but their odds will go up to at least 10%, and instead their win-loss projection will be firmly on the "above .500" side. Before Sunday, they were projected to be 16-15 before conference tournaments. So while the Red Storm still have a lot of work to do, they took a big step with today's win. But was it really due to anything they did, or a continuation of UConn's slump?
Tennessee's loss can probably be attributed to Kentucky's realization that their season needed to change, but UConn's loss is probably due to psychological repercussions of their recent slump. St. John's was coming off a 5-game slide and not playing particularly well, and UConn's 3 prior losses were on the road to good teams, so a home loss to the Red Storm was very unexpected. But everyone knew Kentucky was capable of playing great basketball, as they were in most people's top 10 in the pre-season. St. John's wasn't in the top 25.
With UConn and Tennessee both dropping from the 1-line, who will move in? Kansas and Purdue are safe of course, and the next two in line would be #5 UCLA and #6 Houston. But because Kentucky increased their stock with the Tennessee win, #7 Alabama might pass the Cougars and take the 1-seed along with UCLA, as both teams beat the Wildcats.
Comments