Two new 1-seeds after a week that included a record-breaking number of upsets on Saturday. Here's a rundown of the latest Dance Chance March Madness tracker
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 1. Purdue 16-1 30-1 B10 97.1 +2.1 1 1 2. Kansas 16-1 27-4 B12 96.8 +1.3 1 1 3. Houston 17-1 30-1 Amer 96.4 +2.5 1 2 4. Alabama 15-2 28-3 SEC 96.0 +2.5 1 2
Purdue takes over as the top 1-seed, but it's more due to Kansas slipping a bit. The Jayhawks barely held on to home wins over Oklahoma, where they were down 10 with 5 minutes left, and Iowa State whom they beat 62-60. Their projection slipped slightly to 27-4, enough to drop them to #2. Moving in this week are Houston and Alabama. The Cougars are starting to have a real chance to go undefeated in the American Athletic, and Alabama is the only team to beat them. The Tide beat Arkansas and LSU last week.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 5. UCLA 16-2 29-2 P12 95.6 +2.5 2 2 6. Tennessee 14-3 28-3 SEC 95.3 +0.6 2 1 7. Connecticut 15-4 27-4 BE 94.9 +0.6 2 1 8. Gonzaga 16-3 27-4 WCC 94.5 +2.1 2 3 9. Texas 15-2 25-6 B12 94.2 +2.8 3 3 10. Iowa St. 13-3 23-7 B12 93.8 +6.2 3 6 11. Rutgers 13-5 24-7 B10 93.4 +1.4 3 3 12. Baylor 12-5 22-9 B12 93.1 +5.8 3 6
Tennessee and UConn are the former 1-seeds, now 2-seeds; both were upset at home over the weekend. For Tennessee it looks like more of a temporary setback whereas the Huskies have now lost 4 of their last 5 games, including twice last week. They play Seton Hall on the road and Butler at home this week. Gonzaga moves up to a 2-seed after crushing Portland by 40, and edging BYU on the road by a point.
The 3-line is filled with three Big Twelve teams; Iowa State and Baylor make the jump from the 6-line. The Cyclones crushed Texas Tech 84-50, then nearly beat Kansas in Lawrence as mentioned above. The Bears broke a 3-game losing streak by beating West Virginia on the road and Oklahoma State 74-58 at home.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 13. Virginia 13-3 25-4 ACC 92.7 +3.9 4 5 14. Xavier 15-3 25-6 BE 92.3 +2.8 4 5 15. Kansas St. 15-2 21-10 B12 92.0 +1.7 4 4 16. Arizona 15-3 26-5 P12 91.6 -1.2 4 2 17. Illinois 12-5 22-9 B10 91.2 +20.4 5 9 18. Marquette 14-5 24-7 BE 90.8 +12.2 5 8 19. Charleston 18-1 30-1 CAA 90.5 -0.5 5 4 20. Florida Atlantic 16-1 29-2 CUSA 90.1 -1.6 5 3
Arizona dropped another 2 seeds after a bad loss (87-68) to Oregon. Just from that loss the Wildcats fell from #10 to #20 in Pomeroy and from #7 to #12 in the Strength power rating (the difference is mostly due to Pomeroy weighing recent games). Virginia takes over as the top team in the ACC but is still just a 4-seed (the conference tournament champ will be at least a 3-seed though). Up from a 5-seed, the Cavs beat North Carolina and Florida State last week, while Xavier moved up the same amount after topping both Creighton and Marquette at home.
Speaking of Marquette, the lost didn't hurt them—it was expected—and the Golden Eagles also beat UConn 82-76 earlier in the week, lifting them from an 8-seed to a 5-seed. Also moving up big is Illinois who jumps from a 9-seed to a 5 after beating Nebraska by 26 and Michigan State 75-66, ending the Spartans' 7-game win streak. Two mid-Majors round out the 5-line, both down a seed or two as they fight their conferences' weakness. Charleston still looks to go 30-1 but the Colonial Athletic got downgraded a bit so even going 18-0 there might only get them a 5-seed. Florida Atlantic is a much better team but is no longer favored in every future game in the C-USA, dropping them from the 3-line. The two have the longest winning streaks in the nation right now at 17 and 15 as of Sunday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 21. North Carolina 12-6 23-8 ACC 89.7 +0.6 6 5 22. Saint Mary's 16-4 26-5 WCC 89.4 +1.0 6 5 23. New Mexico 16-2 26-5 MWC 89.0 +12.0 6 8 24. Kent St. 14-3 28-3 MAC 88.6 +1.7 6 6 25. Duke 13-5 22-9 ACC 88.3 -1.6 7 4 26. Indiana 11-6 20-11 B10 86.5 +11.0 7 8 27. N.C. State 14-4 24-7 ACC 84.9 -1.6 7 7 28. TCU 14-3 19-12 B12 83.3 +21.9 7 11 29. Miami FL 14-3 22-8 ACC 81.7 +23.4 8 11 30. Nevada 15-4 24-7 MWC 80.0 +6.1 8 9 31. Boise St. 14-4 24-7 MWC 78.4 +9.2 8 9 32. Ohio St. 10-7 20-11 B10 76.8 -13.8 8 4
New Mexico is tops right now in the ever-evolving Mountain West, after beating San Diego State last week. They also beat Summit League power Oral Roberts in a game scheduled just 2 weeks in advance, so they got a bonus on our projection (which didn't have the game listed). The Lobos move up to a 6-seed, while Duke moves the other way, down three to a 7-seed after falling to Clemson for their 3rd ACC loss.
TCU and Miami jump up from 11-seeds to the lowest 7-seed and top 8-seed respectively despite both going 1-1 last week. The Horned Frogs narrowly lost to Texas on the road (79-75) and got a very valuable win over Kansas State, 82-68, ending the Wildcats' 9-game win streak. The Hurricanes beat Boston College easily at home 88-72 then almost upset NC State on the road, taking the Wolfpack into overtime. NC State's NCAA odds slipped a bit for the close call but they held their 7-seed.
Ohio State slipped 4 seeds to an 8-seed after losing twice last week to Minnesota at home (a huge upset) and Rutgers on the road (a very close overtime loss). The Buckeyes have now lost 4 in a row but all four were within 7 points; only the Minnesota home loss is grounds for concern, though losing the heartbreaker to the Scarlet Knights must hurt. They'll try to rebound against Nebraska in Lincoln on Wednesday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 33. Providence 14-4 23-8 BE 75.2 +15.4 9 11 34. Creighton 10-8 21-10 BE 73.6 -6.6 9 8 35. Utah St. 14-4 26-5 MWC 72.0 -9.8 9 7 36. Iowa 12-6 20-11 B10 70.3 +7.4 9 10 37. Arkansas 12-5 22-9 SEC 68.7 -14.5 10 7 38. West Virginia 10-7 17-14 B12 67.1 -17.7 10 7 39. San Diego St. 13-4 22-8 MWC 65.5 -22.5 10 6 40. Auburn 14-3 22-9 SEC 63.9 +10.3 10 12
Providence makes five Big East teams in the top 9 seeds as they move up from an 11. The Friars actually lost to fellow 9-seed Creighton on Saturday, their only game of the week, but the close road loss (73-67) was enough to project for them to win the rematch at home, making them 23-8 for the year. Interesting. Utah State, once the Mountain West front-runner, falls to a 9-seed following the surge of 8-seeds Nevada and Boise State, which makes the Aggies schedule tougher going forward. They lost to the Broncos two weeks ago and to the Wolf Pack last week, 85-70, in Reno.
The 10-line is mostly full of losers this week, including San Diego State who falls from a 6-seed to a 10-seed. Another Mountain West team vexed by the growing list of good teams in the league, the Aztecs beat Nevada at home as expected but fell to New Mexico. At the beginning of the year I expected them to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, but now there are five Mountain West teams from #31 to #40 in Strength—with SDSU at #40.
Two other 10-seeds drop a lot. Arkansas lost twice, to Alabama and then Vanderbilt, the latter being more destructive to their projection. West Virginia still ranks #20 in Strength but they've lost 5 in a row now including twice last week, to Baylor and Oklahoma. The Big Twelve is clearly the toughest conference top to bottom this year.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 41. Oral Roberts 15-4 26-4 Sum 62.3 -10.1 11 9 42. Kentucky 11-6 20-11 SEC 60.7 +38.7 11 43. Maryland 11-6 20-11 B10 59.0 +13.6 11 44. Sam Houston St. 13-5 25-5 WAC 57.4 -8.7 11 10 45. Pittsburgh 12-6 22-9 ACC 55.8 +13.5 12 46. Colorado 11-8 18-13 P12 54.2 -13.5 12 10 47. Penn St. 12-5 19-12 B10 52.6 +44.9 12p 48. Arizona St. 15-3 23-8 P12 51.0 -1.1 12p 12p 49. Northwestern 12-5 19-12 B10 49.3 +10.2 12p 50. Dayton 12-6 25-6 A10 47.7 -2.7 13 12 51. Marshall 15-4 26-5 SB 47.4 +14.5 13 13 52. Memphis 13-5 23-8 Amer 45.8 +16.0 12p
The big news this week is Kentucky as the Wildcats are back in the seedings after beating Tennessee. Last week they had about a 22% chance to make the tournament, and that dropped to around 7% after a woeful loss to South Carolina at home. So what did they do but turn around and beat the hottest team in the country, Tennessee, on their own home court, 63-56. They're still basically a bubble team but having the Tennessee win on their résumé helps a lot.
Maryland and Pittsburgh made smaller jumps into the bubble range, with the Terps riding an upset of Ohio State to offset a road loss to Iowa, while the Panthers fell to Duke but beat Georgia Tech 71-60 on the road. Penn State's leap was bigger as the Lions were in the single digits prior to beating Indiana 85-66.
Another Big Ten team, Northwestern, edged into a 12-seed play-in spot despite losing twice last week! The Wildcats fell to Rutgers at home by 3 and to Michigan on the road by 7, but it appears that last week's win over Illinois continued to pay dividends as the Illinois moved up this week. Memphis is the last team in despite a mixed bag last week, losing to UCF in double overtime and beating Temple by 2 points, both on the road.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 53. Clemson 15-3 24-7 ACC 44.2 +23.8 54. Virginia Tech 11-6 20-11 ACC 42.6 -12.6 12 55. UAB 13-5 25-6 CUSA 40.9 +12.7 56. Bradley 12-7 24-7 MVC 39.3 +14.2 13 13 57. North Texas 14-4 25-6 CUSA 37.7 +1.7 58. Missouri 13-4 21-10 SEC 36.1 +1.6 59. Mississippi St. 12-5 21-10 SEC 34.5 -9.4 60. Texas Tech 10-7 15-16 B12 32.9 -14.5 13p 61. Oklahoma St. 9-8 14-17 B12 31.2 -17.6 12p 62. Oklahoma 11-6 15-16 B12 29.6 +18.6 63. Washington St. 9-10 16-15 P12 28.0 -28.7 11 64. Seton Hall 11-8 15-16 BE 26.4 +7.6 65. St. John's 13-6 18-13 BE 24.8 +22.0 66. Utah 12-7 19-12 P12 23.2 -23.8 13p ... 79. UNLV 12-5 18-12 MWC 6.5 -58.0 10
Below the bubble extravaganza: These teams conveniently sorted themselves by conference this week:
- ACC: Clemson and Virginia Tech are the first two teams out. The conference has 6 teams in our seedings this week and very nearly two more. The Tigers beat Duke and also, of course Louisville. The Hokies lost to Syracuse and fell from a 12-seed but they're still in the hunt.
- C-USA: Conference USA has just one team (Florida Atlantic) but two hopefuls in UAB and North Texas. The Blazers lost to Western Kentucky by 2 last Wednesday but rebounded by beating Louisiana Tech on the road. The Mean Green also beat Louisiana Tech and lost to Florida Atlantic but only by 4 points on the road, and they pretty much tread water as a result.
- SEC: Missouri lost twice last week, to Texas A&M and Florida but both were road losses and their prior wins over Kentucky and Illinois helped keep them stable no doubt. Mississippi State also dropped two road games, to Georgia and Auburn, and though they lost ground (and have lost 5 of their last 6) they have a chance to turn things around. There are currently 5 SEC teams in the seeding.
- Big Twelve: Every Big Twelve team is seeded or very close. Seven teams are 10-seeds or better and the other three—Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma—are trying to finish above .500 so they've got a chance at an at-large. Texas Tech has now lost 5 in a row, dropping road games to Iowa State and Texas last week, and Oklahoma State has lost 4 of 5 including road losses to Kansas State and Baylor recently. Oklahoma had a better week but not by much; the Sooners nearly beat Kansas on the road, and edged West Virginia 77-76 at home to avoid going 0-2 as well.
- Pac-12: Washington State, still the best 10-loss team in the country, drops from an 11-seed due to their 1-point close call at home vs. Stanford, and also their Arizona upset from 2 weeks ago cooling off a bit. Utah also falls off the Last Four In as the Utes lost to both UCLA and USC on the road. The Pac-12 has 4 teams seeded.
- Big East: The Big East has 5 teams seeded and these two are trying to hold in the lower bubble. Seton Hall had an easy week with Georgetown and DePaul but beat both on the road, and St. John's got a huge win at Connecticut that revived the Red Storm's fortunes, at least for the time being.
I've also included UNLV as the Rebels take a huge fall from a 10-seed down to 6.5% odds. The Rebels lost to Boise State by 18 at home and then to Colorado State in overtime, also at home. They're the odd man out in the Mountain West now as the conference boasts 5 seeded teams.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 71. Liberty 14-5 26-5 ASun 15.1 -2.2 13 14 77. Iona 12-6 25-6 MAAC 6.8 -30.8 14 13 82. UC Irvine 12-5 27-5 BW 6.0 -6.6 14 14 93. Yale 11-6 20-7 Ivy 4.2 -1.5 14 14 94. Youngstown St. 14-5 26-5 Horz 4.0 -0.1 14 14 99. Montana St. 12-7 23-8 BSky 3.2 -0.8 15 15 116. Furman 13-6 22-9 SC 2.6 -0.4 15 15 126. SIU Edwardsville 14-5 26-5 OVC 2.4 -0.4 15 16 127. Colgate 12-7 24-7 Pat 2.4 -0.4 15 15 136. Longwood 13-6 23-8 BSth 2.1 -0.8 16 15 144. North Carolina Central 9-8 20-8 MEAC 1.9 -0.7 16 16 151. UMass Lowell 15-4 24-7 AE 1.7 -0.5 16p 16p 168. Grambling St. 10-7 23-7 SWAC 1.3 -0.9 16p 16p 185. Northwestern St. 10-8 21-10 Slnd 0.9 -0.7 16p 188. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 11-7 23-8 Slnd 0.8 -0.9 16p 285. Fairleigh Dickinson 11-8 19-12 NEC <0.1 0.0 16p 16p
One-bids: Almost nothing new here. Northwestern State slips ahead of Texas A&M Corpus Christi after both went 1-1 this week, and it's still neck-and-neck in the Southland. Yale lost control of the Ivy League mid-week to Princeton after falling to Cornell but the Tigers lost to Brown on Saturday and gave the lead back to the Bulldogs.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(1/08) 201. DePaul 8-10 9-22 BE 0.4 +0.4 207. Minnesota 7-8 7-23 B10 0.3 +0.3 215. Wright St. 11-8 18-13 Horz 0.1 +0.1
Back from the grave: I had so much fun doing this last week that I'm making it a normal feature. As the number of teams at "near-zero" increases these teams will have to be better and better to stay ahead of the avalanche.
- This week DePaul is the top escape artist, with a respectable 8-10 record and now a 0.4% Dance odds. The Blue Demons secret was an upset win over Villanova, though they lost to Seton Hall at home four days later. They look to have only 1 more win left in them so their stay above the <0.1 mark may be short-lived.
- Minnesota is the best story as the Gophers beat Ohio State 70-67 on the road to rise from the grave temporarily at 0.3%. Nevertheless we still don't see another win for them, that is, they won't be favored going forward, but in the Big Ten the opportunity is always there.
- Wright State barely comes up for air at 0.1%. The Raiders got two road wins last week, improving their projection from 14-17 to 18-13, still not nearly good enough for a Horizon League team to have much of a prayer but their immediate schedule could keep them winning for a while.
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