California escapes from the graveyard

Teams in the Dance Chance that are listed with odds of <0.1% are essentially considered no-hopers, that is, no matter what they do from that point on they're not getting an at-large bid. But occasionally a team with almost zero chance suddenly has a tiny chance again. Here are four teams and how they did it.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(1/01)
218. Idaho St.                 6-10  14-17   BSky    0.4   +0.4        

225. Pacific                  10-9   12-19   WCC     0.2   +0.2        
226. California                3-13   4-27   P12     0.2   +0.2        

230. Bowling Green             8-7   14-17   MAC     0.1   +0.1

Idaho State was in the graveyard last week but beat Weber State—their 3rd straight win—to climb out and now have a 0.4% of getting an at-large bid. Projected at 14-17 it's still very unlikely and with 10 losses still almost impossible in the Big Sky, but the hope is there after improving from a 10-21 projection last week. The best the Bengals can probably do is stay above water a little longer, unfortunately.

Pacific was projected to be 9-22 last week but now look to be 12-19. That gives them a 0.2% chance of an at-large, and since they're in the West Coast Conference they have a prayer. They beat San Diego and Pepperdine last week, why not Gonzaga in two weeks and St. Mary's in February?

California is a team that might have a measurable chance, but they need to be damn near perfect. They've been in the graveyard for many weeks but after 3 wins in 4 games—including Stanford, 92-70, last Friday—the Bears look to be playing much better than their 0-12 start would suggest and have alleged 0.2% at-large odds. But 13 losses is already cutting it close even if they have that at the end of the season! Projected at 4-27, we don't see their freedom lasting long but who knows?

Finally Bowling Green had almost no chance last week and now has...almost no chance. 0.1% is technically 1 in 1000 but that seems long odds for a MAC team, even with only 7 losses so far. But the Falcons have won four straight, the last two over actual D-I teams and are 2-0 in conference play.

Undoubtedly these teams will be swept up among the growing wave of "<0.1%" teams, and maybe eventually become "0.0" teams meaning they'll be locked into zero chance odds. But for now they're keeping their slim hope alive. You can escape from the graveyard, but in most cases you'll still need to win your conference to go to the Big Dance.