It's 2023 and we're well into the college basketball season. Let's see how teams are doing based on the Dance Chance.
Starting of course with the top seeds:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 1. Connecticut 14-1 30-1 BE 93.6 +1.9 1 1 2. Purdue 13-0 29-2 B10 93.2 +1.9 1 1 3. Kansas 12-1 28-3 B12 92.8 +4.9 1 3 4. Arizona 13-1 29-2 P12 92.5 +1.6 1 1
UConn got their first loss but somehow kept the overall top seed. Not too strange when they're still favored in every game, as a 30-1 record would probably get them that designation (if they went on to win the Big East tournament of course). Purdue is still undefeated and still a 1-seed, no surprise there, and Arizona still projects to 29-2. The big news here is Kansas as the Jayhawks make a big jump from a 3-seed. They were projected 26-5 last week and are now 28-3. Their only game last week was a 69-67 win over Oklahoma State so it wasn't a big improvement on their part that helped them, but rather a few other teams faltering. For example the Jayhawks are now favored in their January 28 road matchup with Kentucky (more about the Wildcats later).
The Huskies have a moderately tough week ahead, with Providence on the road and Creighton at home. Purdue faces two very hot teams, though, in Rutgers and Ohio State, the latter being one of their two expected losses! Arizona has it a lot easier with the two Washingtons, while Kansas will have to prove they're worth of a 1-seed as they take on Texas Tech and West Virginia, both on the road.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 5. Tennessee 11-2 29-2 SEC 92.1 +1.6 2 1 6. Houston 14-1 30-1 Amer 91.7 +1.6 2 2 7. Alabama 11-2 27-4 SEC 91.4 +3.0 2 3 8. UCLA 13-2 28-3 P12 91.0 +1.2 2 2 9. Gonzaga 12-3 27-4 WCC 90.6 +1.6 3 2 10. Ohio St. 10-3 26-5 B10 90.3 +6.0 3 6 11. Texas 12-1 26-5 B12 89.9 +1.2 3 3 12. Florida Atlantic 12-1 30-1 CUSA 89.5 +3.4 3 4
Tennessee's slip to the 2-line wasn't due to anything they did wrong, though maybe their 4-point win at Ole Miss could have been more impressive. Meanwhile conference mate Alabama put away Mississippi State and rises back to a 2, while Gonzaga falls to a 3-seed after taking on another future road "loss", to surging St. Mary's.
Ohio State's move into the 3-line from a 6-seed is due to their projection improving from 22-9 to 26-5, which is a lot to live up to. The Buckeyes host Purdue on Thursday in a game they're expected to win, as the Buckeyes rank higher in Strength than the Boilermakers. The first real surprise team in our seeding is Florida Atlantic; the Owls are an impressive #21 in Strength and are pegged to win out. If they do, they might just barely take the last 4-seed. They face one of their toughest remaining C-USA foes, UAB, on Thursday but they get the Blazers at home.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 13. New Mexico 14-0 28-2 MWC 89.1 +10.8 4 7 14. Virginia 10-2 26-3 ACC 88.8 +1.2 4 3 15. Duke 11-3 26-5 ACC 88.4 +1.6 4 4 16. Arkansas 11-2 26-5 SEC 88.0 +3.0 4 5 17. North Carolina 9-5 24-7 ACC 87.7 +2.3 5 5 18. San Diego St. 11-3 25-5 MWC 87.3 +6.1 5 7 19. Charleston 14-1 30-1 CAA 86.9 +0.4 5 4 20. Baylor 10-3 22-9 B12 86.5 -2.9 5 2
New Mexico is the only other undefeated team left after Purdue now, and they're finally getting their due in our seeding moving from a 7-seed to a 4-seed this week. The Lobos are #32 in Strength which doesn't bode well for their chances of going undefeated, but their schedule is just #96 so they might come close. Right now we favor them in all but two games going forward, and they take over as the top Mountain West team for the first time this season. That designated will change a lot I'm sure given that San Diego State and Utah State are around. Speaking of the Aztecs, they move up from a 7 to a 5 this week.
Virginia slips from a 3- to a 4-seed but remains the top ACC team, just ahead of Duke. The two don't meet until February. Arkansas slides up to a 4-seed despite their loss to LSU last week; they're another beneficiary of Kentucky's recent slide. And speaking of slides, another future Arkansas opponent is Baylor and the Bears slide from a 2-seed last week to a 5-seed after a bad 77-62 loss at Iowa State leaves them 22-9 instead of 26-5 (they're still favored at home vs. the Razorbacks in late January, however). They were the #1 Big Twelve team last week; now they're a pretty distant 3rd.
And finally Charleston drops a seed; though they held on to their 30-1 projection they needed overtime to beat Towson and have to be perfect for 16 more games.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 21. Indiana 10-3 24-7 B10 86.2 -1.0 6 4 22. West Virginia 10-3 22-9 B12 85.8 +3.0 6 7 23. Utah St. 12-2 28-3 MWC 85.4 +1.9 6 6 24. Rutgers 9-4 25-6 B10 85.1 +15.5 6 9 25. Xavier 12-3 25-6 BE 84.7 +19.4 7 10 26. Kent St. 10-3 28-3 MAC 83.1 +3.3 7 7 27. Saint Mary's 12-4 25-5 WCC 81.6 +10.5 7 9 28. Sam Houston St. 11-3 27-3 WAC 80.1 -3.1 7 6
Two Big Ten teams going in opposite directions: 6-seeds Indiana and Rutgers. The Hoosiers drop from a 4-seed despite being idle, but it has a lot to do with both Ohio State and Rutgers surpassing them in Strength—as well as our projection model no longer having any vestiges of our pre-season rankings, which held the Hoosiers in high estimation at #6. For their part the Scarlet Knights are up to #11 in Strength putting them at 25-6, up from 22-9 and a 9-seed last week. They face 1-seed Purdue on the road in a game they're expected to lose but they've got a lot of momentum so don't sleep on that game. Another game to watch: 6-seed West Virginia hosting 1-seed Kansas.
The big upset last week, of course, was Xavier beating 1-seed UConn 83-73, which lofted the Musketeers from a 10-seed to a 7-seed and making them the #2 Big East team. They'll have to prove it against Villanova and Creighton this week. Another surging team is St. Mary's. The 7-seed Gaels are playing almost as well as Gonzaga and are now pegged to split the home-and-away in that West Coast Conference series. Coming up next, however, they'll have to get past The Academy of Art (not kidding).
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 29. James Madison 11-4 27-4 SB 78.6 +1.7 8 8 30. Illinois 9-4 21-10 B10 77.0 -8.7 8 5 31. Oral Roberts 12-3 26-3 Sum 75.5 +0.1 8 8 32. Bradley 10-5 26-5 MVC 74.0 +28.1 8 13 33. Creighton 8-6 22-9 BE 72.5 +10.2 9 10 34. Marquette 11-4 23-8 BE 71.0 +4.3 9 9 35. Miami FL 13-1 23-7 ACC 69.5 +21.7 9 13 36. Southern Miss 13-2 27-4 SB 68.0 +17.3 9 12
As some Big Ten teams surge it hurts others, and Illinois takes a hit this week falling from a 5-seed to an 8-seed as they've been revise to 21-10, pretty much all due to Ohio State and Rutgers looking so hard to beat. Soaring into the 8-line from a 13-seed bubble team, projected Missouri Valley champ Bradley improves their outlook despite an upset loss to Belmont on the road. Their former losses at Drake and Southern Illinois are now wins, which puts them at a very tenuous 26-5 for the year. Look for this one to reverse itself at some point, maybe even next week if the Braves can't handle Murray State on the road.
The bottom two 9-seeds are newcomers too, as Miami and Southern Miss improve from bubble teams. Both have excellent records (13-1, 13-2) but less-than-stellar Strength rankings (#59, #73) which is why they haven't projected well so far. But you can't deny what they've already accomplished, as Miami holds a win over 4-seed Virginia and one over Rutgers that is looking better every day. Southern Miss has four road games in a row coming up, including Louisiana on Thursday, one of their toughest games in the Sun Belt.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 37. Utah 11-4 21-10 P12 66.5 +11.4 10 11 38. Iowa St. 10-2 16-14 B12 65.0 +20.5 10 13p 39. Colorado 9-6 18-13 P12 63.5 -4.7 10 9 40. Marshall 12-3 27-4 SB 62.0 +18.9 10 13p 41. Iona 10-4 27-4 MAAC 60.5 +11.2 11 12 42. Texas Tech 10-3 18-13 B12 58.9 +18.8 11 43. Virginia Tech 11-3 23-8 ACC 57.4 +3.8 11 12 44. Auburn 11-2 22-9 SEC 55.9 -5.0 11 10 45. Missouri 12-1 23-8 SEC 54.4 +44.8 12 46. UAB 12-2 26-5 CUSA 52.9 -31.0 12 6 47. Oklahoma St. 8-5 16-15 B12 51.4 +17.1 12 48. Dayton 10-5 26-5 A10 49.9 +24.3 12 14
Two ten seeds this week were play-in 13-seeds last week. Iowa State clobbered former 2-seed Baylor 77-62 which boosted their Strength rating and gave them an extra win, but the Cyclones actually added future losses to TCU (this Saturday) and Missouri, making them project to 16-14 instead of 17-13! Despite this, they leap to a 10-seed as their potential is greater. Marshall confounds our projection too, moving up to a 10-seed after a loss to James Madison. That loss was expected, however, and their projection remains 27-4 while their Strength is higher.
Overall the Big Twelve surged this week. In addition to the Cyclones, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State join the seed line however tenuously. The Red Raiders lost to TCU but are projected to beat Baylor once, evening them out at 18-13 with a #26 Strength. Oklahoma State is almost as good at #33 after nearly upsetting Kansas on the road; the Cowboys were projected to be 14-17 last week but now look like they'll have a winning record. Obviously they'll need a good conference tournament performance if they end up 16-15.
Missouri also makes the seedings, finally, after a 12-1 start including an 89-75 blasting of Kentucky last Wednesday. The Tigers had a weak non-conference schedule so a 23-8 record would only put them on the bubble, but they can enhance that with a win over Arkansas on Wednesday.
UAB falls from a 28-3 projection to 26-5, likely due to needing double overtime to beat UTEP instead of the 20-point margin expected. Just a few additional losses dumps the Blazers from a 6-seed to a 12-seed bubble team. They can make up for it by beating FAU on Thursday (it's one of their three expected future losses).
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 49. Arizona St. 11-3 21-10 P12 48.4 -9.6 13 11 50. Mississippi St. 11-2 23-8 SEC 46.9 +0.5 13 13p 51. Liberty 10-4 27-4 ASun 46.5 +31.0 13 14 52. Memphis 11-4 24-7 Amer 45.0 -18.8 13p 10 53. Kansas St. 12-1 18-13 B12 43.5 +14.9 13p 54. Utah Valley 11-4 25-6 WAC 42.0 +37.9 14p 55. Yale 10-4 23-4 Ivy 40.4 -33.5 14 8 56. North Texas 11-3 25-6 CUSA 38.9 +7.5 14p 57. UCF 10-4 24-6 Amer 37.4 +20.5 58. Kentucky 9-4 19-12 SEC 35.9 -48.7 5 59. TCU 12-1 16-15 B12 34.4 +25.0 60. N.C. State 11-4 21-10 ACC 32.9 -19.3 12 61. Iowa 8-6 17-14 B10 31.4 -28.0 11 62. Maryland 10-4 18-13 B10 29.9 -42.6 8 63. Florida Gulf Coast 11-3 27-4 ASun 28.4 +20.3 64. Florida 7-6 19-12 SEC 26.9 +5.6 65. Pittsburgh 10-4 22-9 ACC 25.4 +16.9 66. Penn St. 11-3 17-14 B10 23.9 -32.7 11 67. UNLV 11-3 21-9 MWC 22.3 -19.2 13p
The bubble - above water: Memphis and Yale drop from fairly solid at-large teams to very questionable at best, though Yale still has the Ivy League title in their back pocket. The Tigers were upset by Tulane while Yale lost to Columbia. New borderline teams are Kansas State (yet another Big Twelve team) who beat West Virginia in overtime to start 12-1. The Wildcats are #37 in Strength but only projected to go 6-12 from here! Utah Valley upset Sam Houston State, and along with North Texas of C-USA are looking for rare extra bids for the WAC and C-USA, who have 2 and 3 teams in the seeding right now.
The bubble - below water: First let's address the big one: Kentucky plummets from a 5-seed to the First Four Out, triggered by a big loss to Missouri. The Wildcats were our #2 team pre-season but all that bias is gone now, and they rank just #34 in Strength. The close loss to Michigan State looks bad, as do the big losses (16 to Gonzaga, 10 UCLA, 14 Missouri) and their biggest wins are Michigan and Yale. Apparently a 19-12 projection in the SEC (down from 25-6 last week) isn't good enough for a bid unless the Wildcats win a couple of SEC tournament games.
They're not the only ones who fell a lot, however. The Big Ten lost three teams from the seedings, with Iowa, Maryland, and Penn State falling from 11-, 8-, and 11 respectively. The Hawkeyes continued their downward spiral that started with the Eastern Illinois loss by losing to Nebraska and Penn State. Maryland lost to Michigan 81-46 which was enough to knock 3 more projected wins off their slate. And although Penn State beat Iowa, their prior win over Delaware State almost resembled Iowa's loss to Eastern Illinois, as the Nittany Lions were up just 4 at the half against a team they were 30+ point favorites over and beat just 60-46.
NC State lost big to Clemson and UNLV fell to both San Jose State in overtime and San Diego State.
Not everything under the bubble was bad news, as Central Florida actually gained from their close (71-65) loss to Houston, 12-1 TCU beat Texas Tech and blasted Central Arkansas 103-57, and Pitt upset North Carolina.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/25) 74. UC Irvine 8-5 27-5 BW 11.8 -18.2 14 14 77. UMass Lowell 13-2 29-2 AE 8.6 -15.6 14 14 95. Youngstown St. 10-5 25-6 Horz 4.9 -7.7 15 15 104. Chattanooga 9-6 24-7 SC 3.7 -0.1 15 115. Longwood 10-5 24-7 BSth 3.4 +0.5 15 118. North Carolina Central 6-7 20-7 MEAC 3.4 +0.2 15 16 121. Gardner Webb 7-7 21-9 BSth 3.3 +0.3 16p 125. SIU Edwardsville 10-5 26-5 OVC 3.2 -0.1 16 15 130. Montana St. 8-7 21-10 BSky 3.1 -0.9 16 15 132. Grambling St. 7-5 24-6 SWAC 3.0 0.0 16p 16 139. Furman 10-5 22-9 SC 2.8 -4.6 15 140. Colgate 7-7 22-9 Pat 2.8 -0.1 16p 16p 177. Nicholls St. 6-7 20-10 Slnd 1.8 -0.1 16p 181. Northwestern St. 8-6 22-9 Slnd 1.7 -0.5 16p 284. Stonehill * 5-11 17-14 NEC <0.1 0.0 292. Wagner 8-5 17-10 NEC <0.1 -0.7 16p 16p
The One-Bid newsletter: Chattanooga takes the Southern Conference lead from Furman pretty commandingly. Despite losing to The Citadel, their 80-51 beatdown of Mercer boosted them. Coupled with Furman's loss to Western Carolina, the Mocs are in charge for now.
Longwood is ahead again in the rotating lead in the Big South, pulling ahead of Gardner Webb by a nose. The Lancers' 67-42 win over Campbell was key.
And Nicholls State leans in ahead of Northwestern State in an even closer race in the Southland. Apparently losing to Baylor 85-56 is a good thing, or it's not as bad as losing to Texas A&M Corpus Christi by 6. There's a lot of ball left to be played here even before the deciding tournament.
Last but not least—or maybe least—Wagner holds on to their projected auto-bid despite falling to #2 in the Northeast Conference. The Seahawks barely beat lowly LIU (#362 out of 363 teams in Strength) 69-61, then lost to Merrimack 58-48, plunging their projection from 23-4 to 17-10! They're now behind Stonehill who is not eligible for an NCAA berth. Wagner's been the clear NEC favorite since the beginning of the season but now it's looking competitive.
Also note that for the first time, one of our projected NCAA teams has basically zero chance for an at-large bid. Many more will follow suit in the coming weeks.
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