Summary of changes to Dance Chance during week of 12/11 to 12/18 and game previews for week of 12/19:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
1. Purdue 11-0 29-2 B10 89.6 +2.5 1 1
2. Connecticut 12-0 31-0 BE 89.3 +1.8 1 1
3. Arizona 10-1 29-2 P12 88.9 +2.1 1 1
4. Houston 11-1 30-1 Amer 88.5 +2.9 1 2
Not that much change to the 1-line, though Purdue has taken over the overall top seed from UConn. Strange that 29-2 Purdue would rank ahead of a 31-0 UConn, but the Big East is not looking that strong so the Huskies don't end up with a lot of big wins. And one of those big wins is Alabama, who just lost to Gonzaga—one of Purdue's big wins. In reality, a 31-0 UConn would be the overall top seed, but only because their name is UConn. Wichita State wasn't the overall top seed at 34-0 in 2014, and if it were say, Creighton rather than UConn with the same schedule? Probably not the overall #1.
UConn and Purdue didn't do much last week but Arizona earned their keep with a 75-70 win over Tennessee. And Houston's win over Virginia on the road put the Cougars back to a 1-seed. Houston still has some good tests in the American but the toughest is behind them. Their wins over Virginia and St. Mary's might remain their best of the season, their loss to Alabama could remain their only one, but it's a long conference season.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
5. Texas 9-1 28-3 B12 88.1 +2.9 2 2
6. UCLA 10-2 28-3 P12 87.8 +1.7 2 2
7. Baylor 8-2 27-4 B12 87.4 +2.9 2 3
8. Gonzaga 9-3 28-3 WCC 87.0 +5.1 2 4
9. Utah St. 9-0 28-1 MWC 86.7 +1.7 3 2
10. Virginia 8-1 27-2 ACC 86.3 +2.8 3 3
11. Alabama 9-2 27-4 SEC 85.9 -0.5 3 1
12. Tennessee 9-2 28-3 SEC 85.6 +1.7 3 3
Here's what happened to former 1-seed Alabama—they fell all the way to a 3-seed after their 100-90 loss to Gonzaga. Playing essentially at home they were favored to win, so their projected record suffers. Gonzaga gains a big win allowing the Zags jump from last week's 4-seed to a 2-seed. Baylor and Utah State both won games this week but Baylor moved up a seed line, displacing (along with Gonzaga) the Aggies to a 3-seed. Despite the Mountain West's quality this season—we have five teams in the seedings at this point—even a 28-1 record might not get a 2-seed. It depends on how strong Utah State looks, too, and at this point though they project to 28-1 game by game, there's a lot of uncertainty there.
While UCLA had a big win over Kentucky, and Virginia and Tennessee both lost, those results were all expected and didn't affect things very much. Of all the teams in the top lines, the only slightly interesting game this week is Virginia traveling to face Miami FL in an ACC clash. The Cavaliers look like the ACC favorite at this point, while the Big Twelve is looking like a fierce battle between Texas, Baylor, and Kansas.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
13. Duke 10-2 28-3 ACC 85.2 +2.5 4 4
14. Indiana 8-3 25-6 B10 84.8 +0.6 4 3
15. Kentucky 7-3 27-4 SEC 84.4 +1.4 4 4
16. Illinois 8-3 24-7 B10 84.1 +1.7 4 4
17. Kansas 10-1 25-6 B12 83.7 +3.2 5 5
18. Florida Atlantic 10-1 29-2 CUSA 83.3 +2.5 5 5
19. Charleston 11-1 30-1 CAA 83.0 +7.0 5 7
20. Ohio St. 7-3 22-9 B10 82.6 +1.0 5 5
21. San Diego St. 8-3 24-6 MWC 82.2 +1.0 6 5
22. UAB 9-2 28-3 CUSA 81.9 +1.7 6 6
23. James Madison 9-3 28-3 SB 81.5 +2.1 6 6
24. New Mexico 11-0 26-4 MWC 81.1 +1.4 6 6
The main story on the 4-line is Indiana's drop from a 3-seed. Though the Hoosiers were projected to lose to Kansas on the road, it was supposed to be closer to a 1-point loss than a 22-point loss. The Jayhawks didn't quite move up however, remaining a 5-seed but moving to the top of that line. Nor did Kentucky drop for their expected UCLA loss. Illinois faces 10-1 Missouri this week in St. Louis; the Tigers are only projected to be about .500 this year and a win over the 4-seed Illini would help change that.
Charleston is the big mover here, up 2 seeds from 7 to 5. The Cougars are now priced to perfection at 30-1 in a pretty easy Colonial Athletic where they still have some razor-thin edges over the likes of Wilmington and Towson. Ohio State holds their 5-seed despite the overtime loss to North Carolina, but San Diego State doesn't hold theirs in an idle week! The 6-line is chock full of mid-majors—including undefeated New Mexico—and in the pre-Christmas week nobody plays anything but cupcakes.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
25. North Carolina 8-4 24-7 ACC 80.7 +6.2 7 7
26. Kent St. 8-3 27-3 MAC 79.3 +6.0 7 8
27. Iowa 8-3 23-8 B10 77.9 -1.1 7 6
28. Sam Houston St. 9-2 28-3 WAC 76.5 -2.2 7 7
29. West Virginia 9-2 22-9 B12 75.1 +5.9 8 8
30. Rutgers 7-4 21-10 B10 73.7 +24.5 8 12
31. Saint Mary's 9-4 24-6 WCC 72.3 -4.9 8 7
32. Arkansas 10-1 23-8 SEC 70.9 +0.3 8 8
33. Arizona St. 11-1 24-7 P12 69.5 +19.0 9 12
34. Oral Roberts 9-3 27-3 Sum 68.1 +8.2 9 10
35. Marquette 9-3 23-8 BE 66.7 +21.5 9 13
36. Maryland 8-3 21-10 B10 65.3 -2.6 9 9
A trio of big movers in the 7-9 range. First Rutgers is up from a 12-seed to an 8-seed after beating Wake Forest on Saturday, but it's not that particular win it's the renewed faith in the Scarlet Knights' strength after the 81-57 thrashing they delivered that moves them off the bubble, with 10 expected losses now instead of 12. Arizona State is 11-1 and is finally convincing our algorithm they're for real; the Creighton win last week helped. And Marquette also jumps off the bubble to a 9-seed. The Golden Eagles are soaring on our Markov Chain ranking where they're at #5; they're not quite 2-seed material here yet but they also got a win over Creighton (the Jays are hurting yo) and are the 2nd highest ranked Big East team now, making their conference schedule look a lot easier. They face Providence this week in Big East action.
After their overtime miracle vs. Ohio State, North Carolina will face Michigan this week. And new 9-seed Oral Roberts hosts both South Dakota and South Dakota State.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
37. Penn St. 8-3 20-11 B10 63.9 +8.0 10 11
38. Utah 9-3 22-9 P12 62.6 -4.0 10 9
39. Xavier 9-3 24-7 BE 61.2 -10.8 10 8
40. Colorado 7-5 18-13 P12 59.8 -1.5 10 10
41. Boise St. 10-2 23-8 MWC 58.4 +13.7 11 13
42. Iona 7-3 26-3 MAAC 57.0 -8.3 11 9
43. Memphis 9-3 26-5 Amer 55.6 -3.0 11 10
44. Virginia Tech 11-1 25-6 ACC 54.2 +7.6 11 13
45. Yale 9-3 24-3 Ivy 52.8 -9.8 12 10
46. Mississippi St. 11-0 24-7 SEC 51.4 -1.8 12 11
47. Auburn 9-2 23-8 SEC 50.0 -13.9 12 9
48. Creighton 6-6 22-9 BE 48.6 -3.3 12 12
Auburn's fall from a 9-seed to a 12-seed is the big news here; it happened courtesy of a 74-71 upset by USC. The Tigers host Washington on Wednesday to try to regroup. Other that dropped include Iona who lost to New Mexico, dropping them 2 seeds despite the loss being expected (and expected to be their last one playing in the MAAC). Xavier won twice last week but also fell 2 seeds (they now lose to Marquette at least once); they face Seton Hall Tuesday. Yale also fell two seeds despite a win. Whaddya gonna do?
10-seed Utah lost to BYU 75-66 on the road, an expected loss but the Utes drop a seed; they face 9-1 TCU on Wednesday. A few teams did move up, including Boise State and Virginia Tech, both up from 13s to 11s.
Mississippi State didn't lose but it was really close. The undefeated Bulldogs survived a last-second steal and 3-point attempt by lowly Nicholls State. It didn't affect their win-loss outlook but it sure didn't make believers out of anyone, and they remain essentially on the bubble. Meanwhile Creighton lost twice and is 6-6 after 6 losses in a row but still stays in the seeding, as they remain strong in our power rating. The losses should mostly be over for the Bluejays unless they have confidence issues now. They'll try to break their losing streak against Butler on Thursday and/or DePaul on Sunday, both at home; 5 of their 6 losses were on the road or neutral courts.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
49. Saint Louis 8-4 26-5 A10 47.2 -0.7 13 12
50. UC Irvine 7-4 28-4 BW 45.8 -11.4 13 11
51. Southern Miss 11-1 26-5 SB 45.4 +20.7 13
52. Iowa St. 9-2 18-13 B12 44.0 +4.6 13p 14p
53. Nevada 9-3 21-10 MWC 42.6 -0.8 13p 13
54. Marshall 10-2 27-4 SB 41.2 -0.9 14p 14p
55. Oregon 7-5 18-13 P12 39.8 +4.4 14p
56. Wisconsin 9-2 18-13 B10 38.4 +7.0
57. Texas Tech 8-2 18-13 B12 37.0 +0.3
58. UNLV 10-1 22-8 MWC 35.6 -5.1 14p
59. N.C. State 10-3 22-9 ACC 34.2 +6.8
60. Michigan St. 7-4 14-17 B10 32.8 -5.2 14p
The bubble: New to the seedings this week is Southern Miss, now 11-1 and projected at 26-5, looking to make the Sun Belt a 2-bid league (unless Marshall can make it a 3-bid league). It's going to be close but the Golden Eagles can help themselves a lot by getting an upset win over fellow bubble mate UNLV on Thursday. The Rebels dropped into the First Four Out after a home loss to San Francisco on Saturday.
Also entering on the very tip of the Play-in games is Oregon, one of several Major conference teams (along with Wisconsin and Texas Tech) hoping that 18-13 means a bid. It could, but it would depend on the conference tournament results to separate who's in and who is out.
North Carolina State holds the last spot in the First Four Out, still looking in despite a 22-9 projection. The Dance Chance doesn't think much of the ACC this year, and one reason is NC State's next opponent, 2-9 Louisville. That's a must-win game for the Wolfpack as a loss to the Cardinals will be very damaging to whoever they upset. Meanwhile Michigan State falls off the seed line with a 14-17 projection. That they're still anywhere near with that record shows how differently our algorithm views the Big Ten compared to the ACC.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/11)
65. Bradley 7-4 24-7 MVC 25.8 +5.1 14 14
71. Jacksonville 6-3 24-5 ASun 17.5 -4.6 14 14
75. UMass Lowell 11-2 28-3 AE 11.9 -42.7 14 11
76. Furman 8-4 27-4 SC 10.5 -3.5 15 15
82. Youngstown St. 8-4 27-4 Horz 9.0 +1.7 15 15
106. Montana St. 7-5 24-7 BSky 4.4 +0.2 15 15
139. Colgate 6-6 24-7 Pat 3.6 -0.4 15 15
148. Southern 4-8 23-8 SWAC 3.3 -0.5 16 16
153. High Point 8-3 21-9 BSth 3.2 -0.2 16 16p
157. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 6-5 25-6 Slnd 3.1 -0.6 16p 16
163. SIU Edwardsville 8-4 24-7 OVC 2.9 -0.5 16p 16p
166. North Carolina Central 5-7 19-8 MEAC 2.9 +0.2 16p
174. Norfolk St. 9-4 23-7 MEAC 2.7 -0.6 16p
223. Wagner 5-4 23-4 NEC 1.4 -0.8 16p 16p
One bid-bonanza: UMass Lowell was riding high last week as an 11-seed, looking like a team that could get an at-large if they biffed their conference tournament. Well no longer. We misspoke last week when we said they were expected to lose to Rhode Island last week, they were favored but ended up losing in overtime, and their downgrade from 29-2 to 28-3 is all it takes when you play an America East schedule.
Nothing much else happens here except North Carolina Central narrowly takes over as the auto-bid favorite from the MEAC from Norfolk State. The Eagles accomplished this despite two losses last week; one to LSU (67-57) and one to Gardner-Webb (72-70), both on the road. Our power rating expected a 15 point loss and a 5-point loss, so the net result was a bump up for NC Central. Now 5-7, they're projected to go 14-1 from here on out, splitting two games with 9-4 Norfolk. It's gonna be quite a battle for the MEAC so stay tuned!
