After a busy week we have three new 1-seeds! Here's a rundown of the latest Dance Chance and the recap of games from 12/04 to 12/11/2022:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 1. Connecticut 11-0 31-0 BE 87.5 +2.9 1 1 2. Purdue 10-0 29-2 B10 87.1 +5.5 1 3 3. Arizona 8-1 29-2 P12 86.8 +3.3 1 2 4. Alabama 8-1 28-3 SEC 86.4 +7.0 1 5
UConn is the only constant in the top line, and the Huskies take over as the overall 1-seed. Undefeated Purdue needed overtime to stay that way but the Boilermakers topped Nebraska to go 10-0, but they probably have Arizona to thank for their #1 seed as the Wildcats knocked Indiana down enough that Purdue is now favored over the Hoosiers. So Arizona's 89-75 win in Las Vegas earned two #1 seeds. And of course Alabama came back to beat Houston 71-65 on the road and jumps all the way from a 5-seed to the top line.
Now the Huskies are the only team "expected" to be undefeated, but really now that Houston's out of the no-loss group it doesn't look like it's going to happen. UConn's Big East schedule is too much, and none of the other lossless teams look good enough or also have too hard of a schedule, like Purdue. Connecticut and Purdue have pretty relaxing weeks while Arizona faces Tennessee on Saturday and Alabama plays both Memphis and Gonzaga this week.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 5. UCLA 8-2 28-3 P12 86.0 +2.9 2 2 6. Houston 9-1 30-1 Amer 85.7 +0.7 2 1 7. Texas 7-1 28-3 B12 85.3 +1.1 2 1 8. Utah St. 8-0 28-1 MWC 84.9 +5.1 2 4 9. Baylor 7-2 27-4 B12 84.6 +0.7 3 2 10. Indiana 8-2 26-5 B10 84.2 -1.1 3 1 11. Tennessee 9-1 28-3 SEC 83.8 +1.1 3 2 12. Virginia 8-0 27-2 ACC 83.4 +2.2 3 3
Former 1-seeds: Houston drops one line for one loss, as their schedule doesn't have a lot of oomph. The Cougars play 3-seed Virginia on Saturday, their last big test before AAC conference play. Texas fell to Illinois in overtime in New York and also dropped a seed line. And Indiana fell all the way to a 3-seed from the very top spot after their 2nd loss downgraded them from 30-1 to 26-5 for the year, projected. The Hoosiers play Kansas on Saturday, a game they're now supposed to lose, so it's an opportunity for them to move back up.
The big surprise on the 2-line is Utah State, moving up from a 4-seed and now the top team in the Mountain West. The Aggies are unbeaten as yet and favored in all but one game! That's very little room for error to keep their 2-seed, they'll need lots of luck. Baylor and Tennessee both drop down to the 3-line; Baylor didn't play and Tennessee beat Maryland by 3 points...the high seeds are very unforgiving. But the Vols face 1-seed Arizona Saturday as mentioned so that's a chance for them to re-impress our algorithm.
Also on Saturday, top 2-seed UCLA takes on top 4-seed Kentucky, and speaking of the 4-seeds:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 13. Kentucky 7-2 27-4 SEC 83.1 +2.2 4 4 14. Duke 10-2 28-3 ACC 82.7 +4.0 4 5 15. Illinois 7-3 24-7 B10 82.3 +4.8 4 6 16. Gonzaga 7-3 27-4 WCC 82.0 0.0 4 3 17. Ohio St. 7-2 24-7 B10 81.6 +1.1 5 4 18. San Diego St. 7-3 25-5 MWC 81.2 -1.1 5 3 19. Florida Atlantic 8-1 29-2 CUSA 80.9 +0.7 5 4 20. Kansas 9-1 25-6 B12 80.5 +7.9 5 7
Duke makes its way in to the 4-line after beating former 5-seed Iowa, a slight upset in our book. Illinois of course beat Texas so they're up 2 seeds despite the subsequent loss to Penn State. And Gonzaga moves down another seed line after starting the pre-season a 1-seed. They didn't lose again, they're just getting re-evaluated as their pre-season shine wears off; the projection's rating system is now just 17% pre-season bias, so the Zags have settled to about where they belong. They face 1-seed Alabama on Saturday and it's the last game they're supposed to lose, thus it's their last chance to move up instead of down.
San Diego State was also a pre-season 1-seed mostly due to an easier schedule, but that pre-season schedule hid two very tough tournament losses, and on Saturday the Aztecs fell to St. Mary's 68-61 in Phoenix. They fall from a 3- to a 5- as Kansas moves up from a 7-seed after crushing Missouri 95-67 on the road. The Jayhawks were getting a bit underrated here that's for sure. They face Indiana on Saturday and are now the favorite.
5-seed Ohio State meets North Carolina, now a 7-seed, in New York on Saturday, too.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 21. UAB 7-2 28-3 CUSA 80.1 +1.8 6 5 22. New Mexico 9-0 25-4 MWC 79.8 +9.7 6 8 23. James Madison 8-3 28-3 SB 79.4 +2.2 6 6 24. Iowa 7-3 24-7 B10 79.0 0.0 6 5 25. Sam Houston St. 7-2 28-3 WAC 78.6 +9.9 7 8 26. Saint Mary's 8-3 25-5 WCC 77.3 +13.6 7 9 27. Charleston 10-1 29-2 CAA 75.9 -0.6 7 7 28. North Carolina 6-4 23-8 ACC 74.6 -2.3 7 6 29. Kent St. 7-3 26-4 MAC 73.2 +7.0 8 9 30. Xavier 7-3 25-6 BE 71.9 +7.0 8 9 31. Arkansas 9-1 23-8 SEC 70.6 -4.6 8 7 32. West Virginia 8-2 21-10 B12 69.2 +25.2 8 13p
New Mexico is the star of the 6-line, up from 8, as the Lobos are 9-0 and look to have a pretty good record in the Mountain West. Their previous win over St. Mary's helped, too, as the Gaels just beat SDSU and rise from a 9 to a 7-seed. West Virginia takes a huge jump off the bubble as the Mountaineers move from a 13-seed play-in team to an 8-seed after beat UAB, who falls from a 5 to a 6. West Virginia is our highest-ranked team that is expected to have a double-digit loss count, something hard to avoid playing in the Big Twelve.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 33. Maryland 8-2 20-11 B10 67.9 +6.8 9 10 34. Utah 8-2 22-9 P12 66.6 +20.7 9 13 35. Iona 6-2 26-3 MAAC 65.2 +2.8 9 9 36. Auburn 8-1 24-7 SEC 63.9 -14.0 9 6 37. Yale 8-3 24-3 Ivy 62.6 +23.6 10 14 38. Colorado 5-5 18-13 P12 61.2 +2.6 10 10 39. Oral Roberts 7-3 27-3 Sum 59.9 +12.8 10 12 40. Memphis 8-2 26-5 Amer 58.6 +2.5 10 11 41. UC Irvine 7-3 29-3 BW 57.2 +20.9 11 14 42. Penn St. 7-3 19-12 B10 55.9 +15.7 11 13p 43. UMass Lowell 11-1 29-2 AE 54.6 +49.9 11 44. Mississippi St. 9-0 24-7 SEC 53.2 -6.6 11 10
Utah leaps to a 9-seed from a 13 on the strength of a 99-58 win over Jacksonville that convinced our power rating that the Utes can go 22-9 instead of 21-10 and that's all it took (the boost in Strength helps, too). Going the opposite direction was formerly undefeated Auburn who lost to Memphis 82-73 in Atlanta.
Yale lost twice but moved up from a 14-seed to a 10-seed. What? The Bulldogs fell to Butler and Kentucky both as expected, but the UK loss was only 10 points instead of the expected 20. It made our power rating much more confident that Yale can achieve the 24-3 record we project for them—which means they can't lose a game in the (admittedly weak) Ivy League.
Penn State's move up to an 11-seed is due to their upset win at Illinois; their previous game, a home loss to Michigan State, was unexpected as well but the trade worked out in their favor. UC Irvine, the designated Big West champ, moves into the seed line area where they wouldn't need an auto-big. The Anteaters beat South Dakota 83-71, and it was enough to turn two future 1-point losses their way. They better not count on that at-large bid though come conference tournament time. And UMass Lowell is a big surprise at 11-1, taking over the top spot in the America East. The River Hawks were projected to have 5 losses last week; they took care of one of those by beating UMass and now are a haughty 29-2. Their only expected loss from here on out is their next game against Rhode Island on Tuesday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 45. Creighton 6-4 23-8 BE 51.9 -15.6 12 8 46. Arizona St. 9-1 22-9 P12 50.6 -4.2 12 11 47. Rutgers 6-4 19-12 B10 49.2 -22.1 12 8 48. Saint Louis 7-4 26-5 A10 47.9 -26.0 12 7 49. Virginia Tech 10-1 25-6 ACC 46.6 +15.3 13 50. Marquette 8-3 20-11 BE 45.2 +15.2 13 51. Boise St. 8-2 22-9 MWC 44.7 -6.2 13 12 52. Nevada 8-3 21-10 MWC 43.4 -8.8 13 11
Creighton falls from an 8-seed to a 12-seed after losing to BYU, their 4th loss in a row. The Bluejays will try to recover tonight (Monday night) against fellow 12-seed Arizona State in Las Vegas. Also dropping from 8 is Rutgers, who fell to Ohio State and Seton Hall last week, while St. Louis fell from a 7-seed after losing to Iona and Boise State. The 12-line is not a happy place right now.
The 13-line is luckier though. Virginia Tech and Marquette join the seedings as the Hokies beat Dayton and Oklahoma State to go 10-1, and the Golden Eagles topped Notre Dame 79-64 on Sunday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 53. Marshall 9-1 28-3 SB 42.0 +31.6 14p 54. UNLV 10-0 23-7 MWC 40.7 -12.8 14p 11 55. Iowa St. 8-2 18-13 B12 39.4 -3.4 14p 13p 56. Michigan St. 7-4 15-16 B10 38.0 +2.9 14p 57. Texas Tech 6-2 19-12 B12 36.7 -11.7 12 58. Oregon 5-5 18-13 P12 35.4 +13.0 59. Miami FL 10-1 24-7 ACC 34.0 +10.4 60. Oklahoma St. 6-4 15-16 B12 32.7 +6.5
The dreaded bubble: This week the seedings dip all the way to the top of the 14-line, with Marshall and Michigan State joining (or re-joining, as the case may be) while UNLV drops from the 11-line. The Thundering Herd won their 9th straight after an inexplicable loss to Queens in their opener. The Spartans beat Penn State and Brown and although they project to 15-16, they're good enough that they have the potential to do quite a bit better, that's why they just barely hang on to the bottom of the bubble. The Runnin' Rebels are 10-0, one of very few undefeated teams left in the country (7 to be exact).
Texas Tech falls from a 12-seed to the First Four Out as their win over lowly Nicholls State (78-71) was weak. Oregon made a sizable move by beating Nevada 78-65, while Miami beat Cornell and NC State. The Hurricanes are the opposite of Michigan State—their 24-7 projected record is good enough to be in for sure in the ACC, but they aren't considered good enough to make it happen. Oklahoma State is another team in a too-tough conference that will have a hard time staying above water, and 13-seed Virginia Tech handed them their 4th loss. Their win over 7-seed Sam Houston State offset that, though.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/04) 68. Jacksonville 5-3 24-5 ASun 22.0 -5.4 14 14 69. Bradley 7-3 23-8 MVC 20.7 -20.8 14 13p 72. Towson 8-3 25-6 CAA 16.7 -40.6 10 74. Furman 7-3 27-4 SC 14.0 -19.8 15 14 75. Southern Illinois 6-4 24-8 MVC 12.7 -37.0 12 91. Youngstown St. 7-4 26-5 Horz 7.4 -0.8 15 15 100. Bryant 8-3 24-5 AE 5.0 +0.2 15 103. VCU 6-4 23-8 A10 4.9 -39.7 13 129. Montana St. 6-5 23-7 BSky 4.2 +0.3 15 16p 139. Colgate 6-6 24-7 Pat 3.9 -0.5 15 15 144. Southern 4-5 23-8 SWAC 3.8 -0.4 16 16 147. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 5-4 25-6 Slnd 3.7 -0.6 16 15 158. High Point 8-2 21-9 BSth 3.5 -0.6 16p 160. SIU Edwardsville 7-4 24-7 OVC 3.4 -0.7 16p 16p 161. Longwood 5-5 22-9 BSth 3.4 -0.9 16 166. Norfolk St. 6-4 24-6 MEAC 3.2 -0.1 16p 16p 208. Wagner 4-4 23-4 NEC 2.2 -0.4 16p 16p
The rest of the field: Towson falls out of the seedings altogether from a 10-seed last week; they lost to both Clemson and Navy last week (they were supposed to beat the Midshipmen). So, too, does Southern Illinois as the Salukis lost to Indiana State at home.
Bryant had to give up the auto-bid for the America East to surging 11-seed UMass-Lowell, and VCU lost to Jacksonville at home and fell from a 10-seed wayyyy down to #103, going from 45% odds to 5%. Seems kinda harsh, but...
And last but not least (pretty close to least though), High Point stole Longwood's 16-seed auto-bid in the Big South. The two are so close (#158 and #161) that it could flip back next week. Stay tuned, I know you're excited about that one.