SportsRatings presents: the 2022-2023 Pre-season College Basketball rankings
How did we make these rankings? Pretty much the same as everyone else: started with last year's quality (determined by our Strength power rating), accounted for loss of players, and added in transfers and recruiting. Simple right? In truth, basketball is a tough sport to make sensible pre-season rankings as the balance of returning players, improvement, and estimation of new player impact is more of an art than a science. We compare our results to five other major pre-season forecasts: Associated Press (AP), ESPN's BPI (BPI), Ken Pomeroy (POM), Jeff Sagarin (SAG), and Sports Illustrated (SI)
With no further ado, here is our Top 363, with rundown commentary for the top 50:
- Gonzaga (AP: 2 • BPI: 1 • POM: 3 • SAG: 1 • SI: 2) Last year: #1
The Bulldogs/Zags are #1 again, as they finished the season on top of our Strength ratings despite not winning the NCAA tournament. That "failure" has turned into discussion as to whether they are "unprepared" for the tournament due to playing in the West Coast Conference. Tell me, how many Power conference teams have made Finals twice in the last five years? North Carolina, and that's it. Finishing #2 twice is certainly as difficult, or more so, than winning it. We're supposed to believe a WCC schedule doesn't prep the Zags to win it all, but somehow preps them to reach the finals 40% of the time. Ridiculous. Gonzaga is our pre-season #1 mainly from being so good last year and returning a lot of that talent including of course Drew Timme. BPI and Sagarin concur, and the others all have the Zags in the top 3. Meaning they might finally win a title, or possibly show how disastrously unprepared they were by finishing runner-up again (that was sarcasm :) - Kentucky (AP: 4 • BPI: 4 • POM: 1 • SAG: 5 • SI: 4) Last year: #6
Kentucky always reloads and this year is no exception, but this year in addition to having a stellar recruiting class they also return a decent amount of last year's team, led by Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. The Wildcats made an inauspicious exit from the tournament last year as a 2-seed but the consensus seems to be a 1-seed this year, with Pomeroy putting UK at #1. - Auburn (AP: 15 • BPI: 12 • POM: 13 • SAG: 24 • SI: 23) Last year: #11
We're definitely higher on Auburn than anyone else, as the Tigers return a lot of production and have solid incoming talent as well. That puts the Tigers at #3, but everyone else seems to think they'll hang out in the lower half of the top 25, focusing on who they lost rather than what they retain and gain. We'll soon find out whether this is Bruce Pearl's year. - Tennessee (AP: 11 • BPI: 6 • POM: 4 • SAG: 15 • SI: 11) Last year: #7
Our third SEC team in a row and we're only at #4. The Vols will be about as good as they were last year we think, given above-average retention and solid recruiting, but it puts them in the same place as Auburn: can they get to the next level? A 99-80 exhibition win over Gonzaga suggests they deserve this ranking, and Pomeroy, at least, concurs. - North Carolina (AP: 1 • BPI: 15 • POM: 9 • SAG: 7 • SI: 1) Last year: #22
Everybody's darling this year is North Carolina. Should they be? Sure, they finished runner-up to Kansas in the tournament, but the rest of their season was pedestrian enough that they only finished at #22 in Strength for the year. But winning begets winning, especially when you return most of your starters and add great recruits and key transfers to fill the gaps. Note that the human-based lists (AP and SI) put the Tar Heels #1 while the stats-driven lists are less enthusiastic. But everyone agrees this will be a team to watch, if not the team to beat next March. - Indiana (AP: 13 • BPI: 11 • POM: 12 • SAG: 11 • SI: 20) Last year: #37
This is our first big jump, from well outside the top 25 to the top 10. No one else quite puts the Hoosiers here but BPI, Pomeroy, and Sagarin come close, as do the AP voters. The reasons are clear: Indiana returns four starters and adds a great recruiting class to boot. How you weigh all that determines where the Hoosiers sit, and they just have to live up to it. - Texas (AP: 12 • BPI: 2 • POM: 2 • SAG: 12 • SI: 12) Last year: #16
Texas' leap into the top 10 is driven mostly by incoming talent, so it might not be as assured as some of the rankings based on returning starters. But the Longhorns actually have more production coming back than average (most teams lose a bit more than 50%) so there's a solid base to boot. And they add proven transfers, too. That may be why BPI and Pomeroy both put Texas at #2, while the others all put them at #12 - Kansas (AP: 5 • BPI: 13 • POM: 8 • SAG: 3 • SI: 9) Last year: #5
Last year's national champs hardly miss a beat. Finishing the year at #5 in Strength, the Jayhawks aren't quite back to that level after losing the bulk of last year's team, but they reload with one of the nation's best recruiting classes. A 3-spot difference at the beginning of the season doesn't mean anything come March, and everyone agrees Kansas should be within striking distance. - Arizona (AP: 17 • BPI: 14 • POM: 10 • SAG: 19 • SI: 16) Last year: #3
The Wildcats were among the elite last year by any measure, but like most of the 1-seeds had a disappointing exit. No one thinks the Cats will be nearly as good this year as they lose three critical players, but we don't dock them quite as much. Probably because they return an average amount of production overall and add decent recruits. Another 1-seed seems unlikely as the consensus has them in the 2nd ten, but where did they start last season? Oh yeah: in the "others receiving votes" section of the AP poll. - UCLA (AP: 8 • BPI: 9 • POM: 11 • SAG: 10 • SI: 10) Last year: #13
On paper UCLA returns a strictly average amount of production and adds a solid recruiting class, enough to move them up slightly into the top ten, a placement with which there is almost perfect consensus in our survey of rankings. Personnel-wise, the return of Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez gives them continuity going back to their Final Four run. It already seems like they've been around forever but they're normal Seniors. Guess that still feels rare these days. - Baylor (AP: 5 • BPI: 3 • POM: 6 • SAG: 2 • SI: 6) Last year: #4
Baylor follows a winning formula for our pre-season rankings: start high in last-year's Strength (#4), don't lose more than the average amount of production, and add at least a decent amount of recruits and transfers. The Bears drop out of our top ten but not by much. Other rankings think they'll be just as good as last year due to great guard play, but our formula disagrees. - Villanova (AP: 16 • BPI: 43 • POM: 20 • SAG: 14 • SI: 13) Last year: #9
On paper the Wildcats are just as good as last year, with decent returning production and good-enough recruiting to keep things basically the same. Everyone agrees except for BPI which slams the Cats down to #43. What gives? Could it be that the pre-season BPI takes coaching changes into account? If so, that's the only reason to doubt Villanova in a transition year from Jay Wright to Kyle Neptune. Indeed in ESPN's own words, for the BPI "a first-time head coach gets a replacement-level rating." - Virginia (AP: 18 • BPI: 17 • POM: 5 • SAG: 23 • SI: 26) Last year: #76
Another big mover, really big this time as the Cavaliers jump from a mediocre #76, NIT-season to nearly the top ten. And it looks like everyone's basically on board, especially Pomeroy who has Virginia in the top 5. The catalyst is the return of almost the entire team—all five starters—plus the addition of a top recruiting class. That's a great 1-2 punch in any formulaic system. - Houston (AP: 3 • BPI: 5 • POM: 7 • SAG: 6 • SI: 3) Last year: #2
We had Houston #2 in Strength at the end of the year but we downgrade them more than almost anyone else. The human-scored elements (AP & SI) put the Cougars #3, while the computer-based quants all keep them in the top 10. Ours doesn't, simply because of some talent loss and not the best replacement of that talent. There's more outgoing than incoming. But with Marcus Sasser back the Cougars will still be elite, and others grade their recruiting higher than we do it seems. It's not like we dropped them from the top 25! - Alabama (AP: 20 • BPI: 8 • POM: 18 • SAG: 26 • SI: 21) Last year: #25
The Tide rises from borderline top 25 to comfortably inside on the strength of one of the better recruiting classes in the nation plus some key transfers. Returning production is about average, which is to say, that alone should keep them in the top 25, the rest is just cake. The BPI is particularly fond of Alabama, putting them at #8; again, how you judge recruits—as much an art as a science—will drive a team's rating. - Duke (AP: 7 • BPI: 31 • POM: 15 • SAG: 4 • SI: 5) Last year: #10
Speaking of recruiting driving a team's rating, here we have Duke. The Blue Devils lose the lion's share of last year's team—over 80% of production by most estimates—but have the #1 recruiting class to restock. The results are all over the board, from #7 AP, #4 Sagarin, and #5 SI, to #15 in Pomeroy, in line with our #16 estimate. The outlier here is really the #31 BPI, which as I said in the Villanova review the BPI really docks teams where an experienced coach leaves. Jon Scheyer replaces Coach K so it's probably fitting that he start with a mostly brand-new team. - Texas Tech (AP: 25 • BPI: 16 • POM: 17 • SAG: 18 • SI: 17) Last year: #8
Everyone is downgrading the Red Raiders to about the same position—still in the top 25 but just barely. Arguably top ten last season, the Raiders are ravaged by personnel losses but attempt to recover with great recruiting—and recruiting, these days, is a term that includes the transfer portal, where much of the new team comes from. Transfers are more of a proven quantity than freshmen, but they also don't offer the upside excitement that a great recruiting class seems to. Hence the solid but lukewarm rankings. - Xavier (AP: 33 • BPI: 30 • POM: 38 • SAG: 29 • SI: 25) Last year: #33
We're the outlier where the Musketeers are concerned, pretty much the only ones putting them in the top 25 though they sneak in with SI. We're looking at their well-above-average returning production rate, and decent-enough recruiting, that they should improve from last year's solid squad. Winning the NIT last year didn't factor in our system other than it did increase their season-end Strength rating, but it's an intangible for confidence going forward. Sean Miller is back to coach the Musketeers again which should be a plus given his track record here, unless controversy follows him from Arizona. - USC (AP: 38 • BPI: 78 • POM: 36 • SAG: 37 • SI: 45) Last year: #46
Like Xavier, we are also the outlier with USC, placing them 17 spots above the nearest neighbor (Pomeroy #36). Consensus is broad that the Trojans belong in the high 30's except for the BPI which dumps them to #78—and they didn't even lose their coach which is usually the explanation for a low pre-season BPI. Not sure what is going on here, as USC doesn't lose more than most teams, and they add a top ten recruiting class. For us, that puts USC in the top 25, while almost everyone else keeps them about the same as they were last year. - Michigan (AP: 22 • BPI: 87 • POM: 26 • SAG: 8 • SI: 24) Last year: #26
Michigan's rankings are all over the place, from staying about where they were last year (AP, Pomeroy, SI) to jumping into the top 10 (Sagarin) to collapsing to #87 (BPI). Again we ask the BPI, what gives? The Wolverines didn't lose their coach (the sure way to have BPI crush your ranking) as Juwan Howard is back. It's true they lose a lot of production but they have big man Hunter Dickinson back and add very good recruits and transfers. You can argue whether they belong up at #8 but #87 seems downright insulting. - Arkansas (AP: 10 • BPI: 7 • POM: 14 • SAG: 17 • SI: 7) Last year: #19
Here's another team that's hard to rank due to their reliance on recruits. Having an astounding recruiting class used to mean a lower-top 25 start (like the Fab Five at Michigan in 1992). Now in the 1-and-done era the top recruiting class might start a team at #1, like Kentucky in 2014. Arkansas has the consensus #2 recruiting class (behind Duke) and that means some are putting them in the top ten, while others keep them a bit lower. Who knows how well the freshman will do? All we know is that the Razorbacks lose most of the team that made them good last year, so it's hard to say for sure that they're going to be better. - Oklahoma (AP: NR • BPI: 29 • POM: 28 • SAG: 39 • SI: 40) Last year: #28
The Sooners were a solid team last year but that didn't translate into a great season; due to a tough-as-nails schedule Oklahoma was 19-16 and went to the NIT rather than the NCAA. This year should be better with the addition of solid talent complementing two returning starters, but a better result depends on sometimes undependable freshmen. Hence the BPI and Pomeroy don't see improvement, Sagarin and SI see them slipping, and the AP gave them not a single vote—probably because they were 19-16 last year and most sportswriters aren't quants who can look past a mediocre record. - Purdue (AP: 29 • BPI: 33 • POM: 25 • SAG: 13 • SI: 35) Last year: #14
The first of three Big Ten teams that rounds out our top 25, Purdue was great at times last year but fell to the St. Peter's miracle in the Sweet Sixteen. The Boilermakers lose more than most teams in terms of production and they didn't replace it as well as most top teams do, hence the drop to the nether regions of the top 25. They still have 7-4 Zack Edey to build a defense around, but opinions vary on how far they'll drop, with Sagarin being optimistic and SI not. - Iowa (AP: 36 • BPI: 24 • POM: 23 • SAG: 22 • SI: 29) Last year: #12
The Hawkeyes were playing the best basketball in the country going into the tournament...then they lost in the first round. This year they're without lottery pick Keegan Murray, but last year they had to play without Luka Garza and did fine. Which is why they'll be all right this season, too. They don't get any transfers or great recruits but do return much of the team other than Murray, including his twin brother Kris who in theory should be able to do everything Keegan did, right? - Illinois (AP: 23 • BPI: 38 • POM: 33 • SAG: 9 • SI: 15) Last year: #17
Illinois will look very different without Kofi Cockburn in the middle. Looking at all they lost from last year it's hard to not downgrade them, but looking at their top ten ranked "acquisitions" class (recruits and transfers), you get into the age-old question: how do you rank a brand-new team full of often unproven—but possibly great—players? Pomeroy and BPI downgrade the Illini immensely while Sagarin and Sports Illustrated prop them up, citing their proven transfer talent. We end up in the middle with the AP, a downgrade but a small one. Will be interesting to see the new Illini play. - TCU (AP: 14 • BPI: 22 • POM: 16 • SI: 22) Last year: #29
Everyone has TCU in the top 25 except us, and it's not hard to see why: the Horned Frogs return almost everyone in the lineup. Somehow that doesn't impress our formula as much as it seems it should. It boosts them a bit but their lack of great recruits holds them back; other teams with high-flying freshmen pass them by. When you start in the top 30, moving up more than three spots is tough. - Virginia Tech (POM: 21) Last year: #24
The Hokies slip out of the top 25 for everyone except Pomeroy. They return an average amount of production, and had decent recruiting but not enough to do more than tread water in our projection. - Notre Dame • Last year: #50
The Irish make a big improvement in our estimation, leaping from #50 to #28 in the strength of solid recruiting. The others are not impressed; Notre Dame got 1 vote in the AP poll and are #43 in Pomeroy, for example. - Connecticut (SI: 19) Last year: #18
UConn should always be watched carefully as you never know when they might win a national championship out of the blue. This year doesn't seem likely but neither did 2014 even right up to the last game. Only Sports Illustrated is ranking the Huskies this year, citing quality transfers and good returnees, while we see a slight dropoff. - Miami FL (BPI: 23) Last year: #52
The Hurricanes are on the upward move due to a solid recruiting/transfer class, hoping to continue the momentum of last year's Elite Eight run which still only put them at #52 in Strength for the year (they were #64 pre-tournament). The BPI agrees they have it in them, and they get a lot of AP votes and finish at #28, but the others don't see anything special. - St. John's • Last year: #48
The Red Storm are also rising, mainly due to returning talent. They add some solid transfers, too. But everyone is focusing on the loss of Julian Champagnie so they don't really make anyone's top 25. - San Diego St. (AP: 19 • BPI: 18 • POM: 19 • SAG: 25 • SI: 14) Last year: #31
Here's a team that could go places. Even though we rate them #32, in our pre-season Dance Chance they're projected as a possible 1-seed! Basically, they're better than almost every team they play so their ceiling is very high. They do return much of last year's talent, though recruiting doesn't add much. In the end we drop them a spot from #31 to #32, while everyone else puts them in the top 25. If we are looking at expected results, they may very well be a top ten team, as we favor them in 27 out of 28 scheduled games. - Vanderbilt • Last year: #57
The Commodores zoom up just shy of the top 25 as the usual formula—decent returning production and solid though unspectacular recruiting—gets the job done. There is some disagreement here, to say the least. Vanderbilt gets no votes in the AP poll, Kenpom has them #66, Sagarin #78, and Sports Illustrated has them #112. The loss of key player Scotty Pippen Jr. is a drag on their ratings, though our formula seems to focus on an almost-top 25 recruiting/transfer class. - LSU (BPI: 25) Last year: #15
The Tigers are on the downswing and there is pretty clear agreement, though the BPI keeps them just inside the top 25. Their plunge comes from the loss of nearly the entire team after coach Will Wade was dismissed. Normally the BPI destroys new coaches but Matt McMahon gets kid gloves from them after assembling a decent class of recruits and transfers to form basically a whole new team. - Michigan St. (SAG: 16) Last year: #34
We barely move the needle on Michigan State from last year, as they return an above-average amount of production to offset an uninspiring recruiting class. Only Sagarin puts the Spartans in the top 25. - Creighton (AP: 9 • BPI: 19 • POM: 22 • SAG: 21 • SI: 8) Last year: #54
Here's another team where we are out of step with the consensus and this time we can't really explain it. Creighton wasn't a great team last year by any means and while they return more than most teams do, it isn't a staggering percentage of production. Nor is their recruiting class amazing or even particularly great. Yet here they are in the top 10 in AP and SI, and in the low top 25 in the others. Here's a clue: the human polls and rankings are the ones "high" on the Bluejays. There's something emotional going on, and while we don't put them as high as Pomeroy or BPI, we're not that far off, and we do move them up a pretty decent amount. The Blue Jays have a solid core and a couple of transfers that some think are going to be the secret ingredient that makes this team a world-beater. We'll see. - Dayton (AP: 24 • POM: 24 • SI: 18) Last year: #53
We move Dayton up about as much as we move Creighton up, and three of the five other rankings put them in the top 25. The difference is that Dayton does return nearly all their production from last season. So if their returning players improve, they'll be a top 25 team. They lack big name recruits or transfers though. - Cincinnati • Last year: #92
Now this is an upgrade. The Bearcats barely made our top 100 last season but they move up over 50 spots after returning a huge chunk of talent and adding good transfers and freshman to the mix. But there isn't a Creighton-like buzz for the Bearcats, not even a Dayton-like buzz. No votes in the AP, either. But SI and Pomeroy both put them around #50, which is a solid improvment (they finished #101 in Pomeroy last year) - Ohio St. (BPI: 20 • SAG: 20) Last year: #30
We have the Buckeyes backsliding a bit due to massive losses in production. On the other hand they have a top ten recruiting/transfer class, so you can pretty much put them wherever you want. BPI and Sagarin translate that into a top 25 ranking and I can't wholly disagree, we'll have to wait and see. - Texas A&M (BPI: 10) Last year: #40
Where does the BPI's ranking of Texas A&M come from? I have no idea. They finished #40 in Strength last year and hold that position in our pre-season; they finished #39 in BPI last year and jump to #10. The Aggies have decent returning production numbers and so-so recruiting numbers. That translates to not even a small step for us, but a giant leap for BPI. The AP puts them at #26, Pomeroy has them #33, SI #38, and Sagarin #54. We've seen some outliers this year but the BPI putting the Aggies at #10 is a puzzler. - Florida (BPI: 21) Last year: #49
The BPI also puts Florida at #21, way out of step with our #41 ranking, Pomeroy's #59, and Sagarin's #40. Sports Illustrated does have them at #27 and they get a few AP votes so someone thinks they're top 25 worthy. Not that the Gators are bad, they return the average amount of production and have decent incoming talent. It just doesn't move the needle into top 25 territory for us. - Seton Hall • Last year: #39
Very little change in Seton Hall's outlook from last year as the Pirates return more production than most teams do, but fail to supplement that with game-changing freshmen. They get a few transfers and a new coach—Shaheen Holloway who led St. Peter's on their miracle Elite Eight run. - Syracuse • Last year: #63
Solid bump for the Orange from recruiting + transfers, but production losses are a ceiling. It should be enough, though, to recover from Jim Boeheim's first-ever losing season in his never-ending career. - Wyoming • Last year: #67
The Cowboys jump from 67 to 44 is powered by a return of almost every player on the squad, certainly the key ones. They don't add a lot otherwise but don't need it to match or top last year's NCAA 12-seed squad. - Florida St. • Last year: #102
The Seminoles were pretty bad last year but that should be a thing of the past. Not that they'll be world-beaters in 2022-2023, but they shouldn't lose to the Georgia Techs and Pitts of the world (though Pitt is a lot better, too). Recruiting and transfers will make up the bulk of the team but the returning core should be better than last year, too. - Oregon (AP: 21) Last year: #70
The Ducks take a big step up mainly due to recruiting; one freshman, 7-foot Kel'el Ware, makes most of the difference in their recruiting ranking and might be the reason the AP pollsters put the Ducks all the way up at #21. - Penn St. • Last year: #79
Another team going from mediocre to NCAA bubble territory is Penn State. The Nittany Lions are above-average in returning production and above-average in recruiting. Not stellar in either, but when you start at #79 that's enough to push you into the top 50. - Iowa St. • Last year: #43
You would think this new transfer era would be right up Iowa State's alley, as the Cyclones for years signed 3-4 transfers every off-season that made up the core of their team. This time they're the ones giving up a key transfer—Tyrese Hunter—and suffering for it. But they took a few players from St. Bonaventure and one from VCU which should stanch the bleeding. - VCU • Last year: #61
The Rams look to be back into familiar territory—on the bubble and getting a seed—again this year after missing out last season. They lose quite a bit but assemble replacements from all over, including the old-fashioned "freshmen" route. - Mississippi • Last year: #101
Ole Miss is a big leaper, up 51 spots to #50. How did the Rebels do it? Mostly through recruiting at a top 25 level, something that really improves the fortunes of a team ranking in the triple digits. - Clemson • Last year: #71
- Oklahoma St. • Last year: #32
- Memphis • Last year: #23
- Mississippi St. • Last year: #45
- Providence • Last year: #38
The big mover in this group is Clemson, up from #71 and 17-16 last year, to a spot that should be right on the NCAA bubble. Meanwhile Oklahoma State, Memphis, and Providence slip; the Friars were an unusual team last year, winning a lot more than their Strength would suggest, but they have major turnover going into the season. - Saint Louis • Last year: #65
- Boston College • Last year: #118
- Wake Forest • Last year: #35
- Stanford • Last year: #107
- Boise St. • Last year: #41
Boston College and Stanford look to have much better fortunes this year after returning about 3/4 of last year's production apiece. Wake and Boise are headed the other direction, it seems; the Deacons lose 75% of production and Boise's recruiting lags. - UAB • Last year: #56
- DePaul • Last year: #87
- Arizona St. • Last year: #95
- Marquette • Last year: #51
- Fresno St. • Last year: #72
No major moves here, though DePaul is up 25 spots due to incoming talent, mostly transfers. ASU is in a similar position though it's their strong freshman class that boosts them. - Maryland • Last year: #77
- BYU • Last year: #60
- Louisville • Last year: #113
- Utah • Last year: #108
- Rutgers • Last year: #78
Louisville's poor 2021-2022 season (13-19) should be a thing of the past as the Cardinals will be a very different team with a borderline top 25 freshman class. Utah should boast similar improvement (from 11-20 last year) based on returning players and more-than-decent incoming talent. - Saint Mary's • Last year: #21
- Washington St. • Last year: #47
- New Mexico • Last year: #152
- Wisconsin • Last year: #36
- Kansas St. • Last year: #62
Saint Mary's was a 5-seed last year but that run is likely over as the Gaels lose some key players (esp. at PG) and don't refill at nearly the same level. Wisconsin fares even worse in some ways: they were a 3-seed and might miss the tournament this year. Like St. Mary's, the Badgers lose production and don't replace it with good enough freshman or transfers—at least on paper. Either team could surprise. Meanwhile New Mexico is up big with most of their roster returning and their recruiting class is better than either of the aforementioned programs this year. - South Carolina • Last year: #98
- Washington • Last year: #114
- Utah St. • Last year: #59
- Colorado • Last year: #75
- West Virginia • Last year: #64
No major moves here, though Washington, in spite of losing a sizeable chunk of production, moves out of the triple-digits zone due to good recruiting. South Carolina lost even more of their team but recruited even better than the Huskies. - Missouri • Last year: #137
- SMU • Last year: #55
- Florida Atlantic • Last year: #121
- Butler • Last year: #116
- Nevada • Last year: #117
Though FAU, Butler, and Nevada all move up almost in lockstep, the Missouri Tigers fly past all of them with a decent recruiting class and possibly the best "transfer class" in the country. New coach Dennis Gates needed all of them as most of last year's team transferred out during the coaching change. - George Mason • Last year: #109
- Georgia • Last year: #196
- UNLV • Last year: #94
- Tulane • Last year: #96
- Minnesota • Last year: #105
Georgia is the big mover here. After finishing almost in the 3rd 100 in Strength and an almost-criminal 6-26, the Bulldogs are all the way into the top 100. They return quite a few players, yes, but that's not very reassuring to fans. The real good news is their recruiting was good and in terms of recruiting transfers, they did great. - Georgetown • Last year: #154
- Nebraska • Last year: #128
- San Francisco • Last year: #20
- N.C. State • Last year: #122
- Pittsburgh • Last year: #169
Lots of teams here went from the 2nd 100 into the first 100, but San Francisco bucked the trend, going from the top 25 to #93. The Dons lose a good chunk of last year's underseeded (10-seed) squad and don't replace it with similar talent. - UCF • Last year: #103
- Western Kentucky • Last year: #112
- North Texas • Last year: #68
- Loyola Chicago • Last year: #27
- Northwestern • Last year: #74
Rounding out the top 100 we find mostly teams treading water and sinking a bit, especially Loyola U. Chicago, a 10-seed last year at 25-8 who lose a bit too much talent for our liking. - Missouri St. • Last year: #69
- California • Last year: #127
- Davidson • Last year: #58
- Massachusetts • Last year: #176
- Furman • Last year: #91
- Temple • Last year: #110
- Grand Canyon • Last year: #100
- Murray St. • Last year: #42
- Santa Clara • Last year: #73
- Saint Joseph's • Last year: #143
Murray State seems unlikely to match last year's 31-3 record as they lose over 90% of last year's production. They replenish that talent well enough to keep them in the race for the Missouri Valley however, where we have them 2nd to #101 Missouri State, who also loses a staggering amount of last year's team (but a less-staggering amount than the Racers). - San Diego • Last year: #211
- Southern Illinois • Last year: #119
- South Florida • Last year: #228
- Fordham • Last year: #174
- Ohio • Last year: #132
- Oral Roberts • Last year: #151
- Wichita St. • Last year: #85
- Rhode Island • Last year: #123
- New Mexico St. • Last year: #90
- UC Santa Barbara • Last year: #139
The big surprise here is either San Diego—up 100 spots to #111—or South Florida, up 115 to #113. Both do it the same way—by returning a slightly better-than-average amount of last year's production, and bringing in much more impressive talent primarily via the transfer portal. - Towson • Last year: #81
- Colorado St. • Last year: #44
- Vermont • Last year: #66
- Toledo • Last year: #88
- Iona • Last year: #97
- Drake • Last year: #83
- Richmond • Last year: #84
- St. Bonaventure • Last year: #80
- James Madison • Last year: #208
- Liberty • Last year: #134
Colorado State is due for a downer year if our prognostication is correct. The Rams were 25-6 last year and were a 6-seed, but their recruiting was dismal and they lose about half of last year's production. Almost every team in this section drops from the top 100 to the 120s other than James Madison who has most of their team back and should have a better year than their 15-14 2022 campaign. - Loyola Marymount • Last year: #198
- Chattanooga • Last year: #86
- Georgia St. • Last year: #161
- Jacksonville • Last year: #186
- Akron • Last year: #133
- Oregon St. • Last year: #203
- Middle Tennessee • Last year: #104
- Bryant • Last year: #212
- Pepperdine • Last year: #269
- Oakland • Last year: #165
The Oregon State Beavers were a Pac-12 mess last season, finishing an atrocious 3-28. They lose most of last year's team which is probably an okay thing since their incoming talent will no doubt be better. We'll go out on a limb and say they'll at least double their win count. Bryant and Pepperdine also soar into the 2nd 100, also due to better incoming players (though Pepperdine retains much of their squad too). - Eastern Kentucky • Last year: #249
- Bradley • Last year: #93
- Howard • Last year: #232
- Northeastern • Last year: #244
- East Carolina • Last year: #164
- South Dakota St. • Last year: #89
- Georgia Tech • Last year: #153
- Indiana St. • Last year: #205
- Tulsa • Last year: #157
- Hofstra • Last year: #120
Eastern Kentucky and Northeastern are both up 100+ spots from last year; both retain some production and add ostensibly much better players (both are in the top 100 in recruiting) - Louisiana Tech • Last year: #106
- St. Thomas • Last year: #303
- Portland • Last year: #177
- Long Beach St. • Last year: #179
- Sam Houston St. • Last year: #155
- Wright St. • Last year: #180
- Cornell • Last year: #191
- Fairfield • Last year: #215
- Eastern Michigan • Last year: #313
- Colgate • Last year: #126
St. Thomas and Eastern Michigan fly in from the 300s, a pretty decent accomplishment forged via recruiting at a top 100 level in St. Thomas's case, and raiding the transfer portal at a top 50 level in the Eagles' case. Meanwhile Colgate continues their decline from their miracle 14-2 Covid season in 2021 where they ranked #16 in the LRMC due to playing the same three teams 4 times each and beating each of them by 50 points on one occasion. The Raiders return a good base but lack impactful recruiting. - Harvard • Last year: #226
- Kent St. • Last year: #147
- Wofford • Last year: #124
- Norfolk St. • Last year: #181
- Seattle • Last year: #138
- Appalachian St. • Last year: #166
- Coastal Carolina • Last year: #148
- Penn • Last year: #202
- Texas St. • Last year: #140
- Longwood • Last year: #162
Not a lot of big moves here, in fact Appalachian State manages to keep their exact same ranking. They lose quite a bit from last year's team but recruiting is good enough to exactly offset that, it seems. The Mountaineers finished #166 in Kenpom last year, too but they fall to #197 in his pre-season. - San Jose St. • Last year: #258
- Belmont • Last year: #82
- Princeton • Last year: #111
- UC Irvine • Last year: #141
- Northern Iowa • Last year: #99
- Abilene Christian • Last year: #129
- Hawaii • Last year: #168
- Utah Valley • Last year: #135
- Rice • Last year: #204
- Cleveland St. • Last year: #178
San Jose State and Belmont meet at the same place from different directions; 176 places apart last year they're now next-door neighbors. The Spartans were 8-23 last season but return 70% of their production and add some decent new talent; the Bruins were 25-8 and lose 70% of their team with little replacement value incoming. - Samford • Last year: #219
- Troy • Last year: #201
- Kennesaw St. • Last year: #220
- Louisiana • Last year: #183
- Tarleton St. • Last year: #224
- Monmouth • Last year: #156
- Jacksonville St. • Last year: #144
- UNC Greensboro • Last year: #190
- Illinois St. • Last year: #170
- Winthrop • Last year: #195
No one really moves in this group. The standout from last year is Jacksonville State, a 15-seed in the tournament. We don't expect them to repeat but at 4th in the Atlantic Sun they're within striking range. - North Dakota St. • Last year: #173
- Marshall • Last year: #235
- Northern Kentucky • Last year: #213
- South Dakota • Last year: #217
- Stephen F. Austin • Last year: #130
- Tennessee Martin • Last year: #298
- Yale • Last year: #150
- Montana St. • Last year: #158
- Pacific • Last year: #291
- UNC Asheville • Last year: #194
Recruiting is the difference between Tennessee Martin's 100+ spot leap and Stephen F. Austin's 65-spot drop. But the Skyhawks are only ranked #297 in Pomeroy for this year, so don't get too excited just yet. - Texas A&M Corpus Chris
- Southern Utah
- Purdue Fort Wayne
- Brown
- Wagner
- UC Riverside
- Delaware
- Southern
- Rider
- Lehigh
- Charleston
- Quinnipiac
- George Washington
- Detroit Mercy
- UMass Lowell
- Navy
- Cal St. Fullerton
- North Florida
- Saint Peter's
- Duquesne
- Northern Colorado
- Texas Southern
- Boston University
- Drexel
- Lafayette
St. Peter's, last year's Cinderella 15-seed that made the Elite Eight, drops from #115 last year to #219 based on losing the bulk of last year's talent and not replacing it. Who knew the Peacocks weren't a recruiting powerhouse? But that doesn't mean teams at this level can't impact their odds, as both Lehigh (#299 last year) and Lafayette (up from #318) move the needle based on returning production and incoming talent. - South Alabama
- Bowling Green
- UNC Wilmington
- Weber St.
- Coppin St.
- Air Force
- High Point
- Mercer
- Youngstown St.
- Eastern Washington
- La Salle
- Loyola MD
- Nicholls St.
- Valparaiso
- Florida Gulf Coast
- UC Davis
- Gardner Webb
- North Carolina A&T
- Sacramento St.
- Bellarmine
- SIU Edwardsville
- Morehead St.
- Mount St. Mary's
- Dartmouth
- Cal Baptist
South Alabama was 21-12 last year and Morehead State was 23-11, but both fall around 100 spots for this year; both return only around 20% of their production and neither had any recruiting coups. - Hampton
- Niagara
- Lipscomb
- Charleston Southern
- Utah Tech
- Western Michigan
- Arkansas St.
- Montana
- Charlotte
- Buffalo
- Cal Poly
- Old Dominion
- Ball St.
- UTSA
- Columbia
- UC San Diego
- Siena
- North Carolina Central
- Presbyterian
- Campbell
- East Tennessee St.
- Georgia Southern
- VMI
- Army
- Binghamton
Buffalo is perhaps the largest drop, position-wise, in our countdown. The Bills were 19-11 and #125 in Strength last year but lose 90% of their production. This drops them below last year's #329 Hampton, #345 Charleston Southern, and #335 Western Michigan, all of whom parlay decent recruiting into a big jump. At this level, it doesn't take 5-star players to move the recruiting needle. - UTEP
- Austin Peay
- Central Michigan
- USC Upstate
- UT Arlington
- UT Rio Grande Valley
- Idaho
- Manhattan
- Southeast Missouri St.
- Little Rock
- Stetson
- FIU
- Northern Arizona
- New Orleans
- UMKC
- Maryland Eastern Shore
- Canisius
- Cal St. Bakersfield
- North Alabama
- Merrimack
- Grambling St.
- Northern Illinois
- Cal St. Northridge
- Chicago St.
- William & Mary
UTEP had a 20-win season last year but lost almost 90% of production from last season, so a second in a row looks unlikely. - St. Francis PA
- Alcorn St.
- Louisiana Monroe
- Miami OH
- Tennessee St.
- Marist
- UMBC
- Western Illinois
- The Citadel
- Elon
- Central Arkansas
- Robert Morris
- Southern Miss
- LIU
- Stony Brook
- Bucknell
- Alabama A&M
- Western Carolina
- New Hampshire
- Tennessee Tech
- McNeese St.
- Morgan St.
- Albany
- Radford
- American
- St. Francis NY
- Southeastern Louisiana
- Lamar
- Jackson St.
- Denver
- Portland St.
- NJIT
- Sacred Heart
- Milwaukee
- Hartford
- Illinois Chicago
- Eastern Illinois
- Bethune Cookman
- Prairie View A&M
- Alabama St.
- South Carolina St.
- Evansville
- Central Connecticut
- North Dakota
- Idaho St.
- Green Bay
- Maine
- Incarnate Word
- Florida A&M
- Houston Christian
- Northwestern St.
- Holy Cross
- Nebraska Omaha
- Fairleigh Dickinson
- Arkansas Pine Bluff
- Delaware St.
- Mississippi Valley St.
- IUPUI
- Southern Indiana
- Queens
- Texas A&M Commerce
- Stonehill
- Lindenwood
Not much to say about the teams in the 300s except good luck to all of you in climbing out of the lower reaches of the D-I college basketball world which is growing every year. This year we welcome five schools, who are all at the bottom (tied, even though they are numbered): the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles, the Queens Royals (of Charlotte NC, not NYC), the Texas A&M Commerce Lions, the Stonehill Skyhawks (of Easton, Mass), and the Lindenwood Lions of St. Charles, Missouri.