SportsRatings: College Basketball

2022 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Kansas vs. (2) Villanova

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 32-6
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 30-7
Conference: Big East

Date: Saturday, April 2
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA  
Channel: TBS

 

After all the Madness in the middle brackets, we get a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed.

     Kansas                             Villanova

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5              Strength:          #8
   Median:   #4                       Median:   #7 
   Markov:   #3                       Markov:   #8 
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #9
   Offense:  #7                       Offense:  #9
   Defense:  #18                      Defense:  #17
BPI:               #8              BPI:               #4
LRMC:              #5              LRMC:              #9

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #40             Tempo (Offense):   #349
Consistency:       #102            Consistency:       #186
2nd half season:   #3              2nd half season:   #9 
Last 4 games:      #3              Last 4 games:      #4  

These are pretty evenly matched teams, with Kansas slightly ahead in every power rating except for BPI, which has the teams reversed from the other ratings. The BPI has Villanova at #4, up from #7 prior to the tournament, with Kansas at #8, up from #9.

The Pomeroy numbers are pretty interesting. Kansas is #4, Villanova #9, a pretty significant difference in ranking. But in the breakdown of Offenses and Defenses, KU is only 2 spots ahead on offense, and is 1 spot behind on defense. Suddenly the matchup looks a lot closer.

There is a huge discrepancy in preferred tempo, with Kansas running to the #40 pace on offense while Villanova slows things down to 349th out of 358 teams.

 

Season overview: Kansas

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =(7)Michigan St.+13, (11)Iowa St.+1, (3)Texas Tech+OT, @(11)Iowa St.+9, (1)Baylor+24, (9)TCU+4, (6)Texas+OT, (9)TCU+13, (3)Texas Tech+9, =(16)Texas Southern+27, =(9)Creighton+7, =(4)Providence+5, =(10)Miami FL+26
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): (11)Iowa St.+1, (3)Texas Tech+OT, @(11)Iowa St.+9, (3)Texas Tech+9, =(4)Providence+5, =(10)Miami FL+26
• Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(3)Texas Tech-8, (2)Kentucky-18, @(6)Texas-3, @(1)Baylor-10, @(9)TCU-10
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(3)Texas Tech-8
• Losses to Final Four (0): None
• Other losses (1): =Dayton-1

Overview: Kansas always plays a tough schedule, but surprisingly their only tourney-team victim of the pre-conference season was 7-seed Michigan State in the opener. They lost to Dayton, too, but continued rolling along into the Big Twelve season racking up 8 big wins and only losing to 3-seed Texas Tech, 6-seed Texas, 1-seed Baylor, and 9-seed TCU in conference play. They also lost to 2-seed Kentucky at home, big—80-62, a game which is a big reason for their "2nd half of season" slide to #8 (it has since recovered to #3). (Similarly, the slide to #12 in "Last 6 games" was due to one bad loss. They're #2 now that it's rolled off the map.) Kansas recovered from a rare 2-game skid to win the Big Twelve tournament in impressive fashion to earn their 1-seed.

The Jayhawks play decent defense but it's their offense that shines. They do the basics well—shooting and rebounding—with an emphasis on 2-point shots. Four players average double figures led by 1st team All-American Ochai Agbaji's 19.7ppg. It was reserve guard Remy Martin who led with 15 against Texas Southern, however; he also led against Creighton with 20, playing 29 minutes. Martin also led against Providence with 23. Agbaji had 18 against Miami as the Jayhawks swamped the Hurricanes in the 2nd half en route to a 76-50 blowout.

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Season overview: Villanova

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =(3)Tennessee+18, @(8)Seton Hall+6, (9)Creighton+34, (5)Connecticut+11, (8)Seton Hall+6, @(4)Providence+5, (4)Providence+2, =(5)Connecticut+3, =(9)Creighton+6, =(15)Delaware+20, =(7)Ohio St.+10, =(11)Michigan+8, =(5)Houston+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): @(4)Providence+5, (4)Providence+2, =(11)Michigan+8, =(5)Houston+6
• Wins vs. Final Four (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(4)UCLA-OT, =(3)Purdue-6, @(1)Baylor-21, @(9)Creighton-20, (9)Marquette-3, @(9)Marquette-10, @(5)Connecticut-2
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)UCLA-OT, =(3)Purdue-6
• Losses to Final Four (0): None
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Villanova played one of the toughest schedules in the country, with four big names on their non-conference slate. They lost to 4-seed UCLA in overtime, beat 3-seed Tennessee by 18 points, lost to 3-seed Purdue and 1-seed Baylor. And that was just in their first 10 games! After that they settled in to the Big East schedule where they went 2-1 vs. both 9-seed Creighton and 5-seed UConn, 2-0 vs. 8-seed Seton Hall and 4-seed Providence, but 0-2 vs. 9-see Marquette. The Wildcats won 5 straight at the end to win the Big East tournament.

The Wildcat offense is in the top ten in efficiency but it's also one of the slowest so they don't always put up huge point totals. Perhaps the most impressive stat is their free throw shooting: #1 in the nation at 82.3%. Despite their slow pace four Wildcats average in double figures, led by senior guard Collin Gillespie's 15.9 ppg. Justin Moore led with 21 against Delaware. Gillespie hit just 2 of 9 threes but all 8 free throws and finished with 20 points in the win over Ohio State. Jermaine Samuels led against Michigan with 22. The Wildcats controlled the game from the start against Houston and held off a late Cougar rally; Samuels had 16.

2nd-leading scorer Justin Moore was lost for the rest of the Final Four, suffering an ACL tear in the final minute against Houston.

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Game Analysis: Both teams are playing well; that's no surprise when you get to the Final Four. Villanova is doing a little better each game while Kansas had a great win against Miami to reach New Orleans.

Justin Moore's injury has to be addressed. Moore is #2 with a 15-point average and Villanova has pretty balanced scoring, so at first blush it doesn't seem to be all that bad; teams lose their #2 scorer all the time and win big games nevertheless. But Villanova plays six players at about 30+ minutes each, with no others in double digits. So it could impact them significantly.

Both teams on offense will be facing a slightly inferior defense, and the efficiency numbers aren't that different for each team. One thing that stands out is Villanova's free throw shooting at 83%, with Kansas a mediocre 72%.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Kansas by   1.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas:        52.7% 
Villanova:     47.3% 

Tournament performance (last 4 games): 

Kansas:        43.8%   
Villanova:     56.3%

Kansas by   0.9 

This one is pretty interesting. Vegas is pretty high on Kansas to pick them by 4 to 5 points, considering that Strength only favors the Jayhawks by 1 point. Pomeroy also has KU by a point, while the BPI has Villanova favored by 0.2 points!  

Obviously Justin Moore's injury is the factor here, but that's a pretty big line move for losing a player unless he's the team's far-and-away leading scorer. We noted the other factors above, however: Moore is one of their 6-man rotation, and so his loss is potentially more impactful than a #2 scorer would be for other teams.  

Bottom line: It looked like a close contest but with Moore's injury things definitely tip to Kansas. The Jayhawks had better build a lead so it doesn't come down to free throw shooting, but Villanova may tire down the stretch anyway.  

Final prediction: Kansas 72, Villanova 69

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Duke vs. (8) North Carolina

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 2
Record: 32-6
Conference: ACC

vs.

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 8
Record: 28-9
Conference: ACC

Date: Saturday, Apri 2
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA  
Channel: TBS

 

The ACC sucked this year, probably the weakest season for the league since...maybe forever. Only a few good teams and a lot of borderline, bubble squads. Just an off-year in every department. So what does the ACC do? Send two teams to the Final Four, of course!

     Duke                               North Carolina

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10             Strength:          #24
   Median:   #9                       Median:   #18
   Markov:   #4                       Markov:   #16
Pomeroy:           #7              Pomeroy:           #16
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #18
   Defense:  #45                      Defense:  #39
BPI:               #9              BPI:               #20
LRMC:              #11             LRMC:              #35

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #181            Tempo (Offense):   #95 
Consistency:       #171            Consistency:       #351
2nd half season:   #12             2nd half season:   #25
Last 4:            #8              Last 4:            #1

Duke's numbers haven't changed too much since the start of the tournament; they were just outside the top 10 in all the power ratings, now they're just inside (except LRMC which doesn't update). They're up to #4 in our Markov ranking, from #10. And most interestingly, they now have the #1 offense in the nation, up from #7 at the start of the tournament (the defense has barely changed, from #44, suggesting a surge on offense has propelled them to the Final Four).

North Carolina is up from #40 in Strength to #24, and moved into the top 20 in Pomeroy and BPI. Their defense ranking in Pomeroy has jumped from #64 to #39, contributing more to their Final Four run than the offense (which did move from #27 to #18). So their defense ranks better now than Duke's, while the offense lags as much as it did before the tournament.

Duke's preferred tempo is mid-range, which UNC wants to hurry it up a bit. We will see that in their two games, the team that "controlled" the tempo won the game handily. Also note how inconsistent North Carolina has been. So far during the tournament they've played four well-above-average games in a row, and their losses tend to come on a severe downside game. But those 4 games make them the best-performing team in the tournament so far, and if the Final Four teams continue on their current trajectories then 8-seed North Carolina will be national champs.

 

Season overview: Duke

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(2)Kentucky+8, =(1)Gonzaga+3, (11)Virginia Tech+11, @(11)Notre Dame+14, @(8)North Carolina+20, =(10)Miami FL+4, =(15)Cal St. Fullerton+17, =(7)Michigan St.+9, =(3)Texas Tech+5, =(4)Arkansas+9
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Gonzaga+3, @(8)North Carolina+20, =(10)Miami FL+4, =(3)Texas Tech+5, =(4)Arkansas+9
• Wins vs. Final Four (1): @(8)North Carolina+20
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(7)Ohio St.-5, (10)Miami FL-2, (8)North Carolina-13, =(11)Virginia Tech-15
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (2): (10)Miami FL-2, (8)North Carolina-13
• Losses to Final Four (1): (8)North Carolina-13
• Other losses (2): @Florida St.-OT, Virginia-1

Overview: Duke quietly had a Duke-like season and nobody really noticed. Until the very end, the Blue Devils seemed like the typical Duke team that wins national titles: lose a handful of games and then win six in a row. They beat two of the best teams in the country—1-seed Gonzaga and 2-seed Kentucky—and people seem to treat it like a fluke.

Finally, then, they laid a couple of eggs and people said "I knew they weren't any good" but before that they played 7 of their best games in a row. It's kind of odd how the Blue Devils were counted out of a season where the possibility of team emotion taking them to a title had to be a strong possibility. The blowout loss to North Carolina in Coach K's home final seemed to indicate that there would be no amazing ending like there was to John Wooden's career (going out with a title) but then again Wooden didn't announce his retirement until the night before the championship game. Coach K announced it before the season started and it's been a Farewell Tour the whole year. It sounds like he just wants to get it over with.

The loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game was further evidence that the Big Dance might end early for Duke. That and the other home losses, to Miami and Virginia, were signposts that something is wrong in Durham. They're still a good team, still capable of beating anyone, but it didn't look like there would be any added magic due to Coach K's retirement. Now in the Final Four, we have to re-evaluate that stance.

This year's team has great talent, with 5 players averaging double figures on offense, led by 6-10 freshman forward Paolo Banchero's 17.0 points and 7.8 rebounds. As usual Duke shoots the ball well, shoots the 3 well, plays decent defense and doesn't foul much at all. True to form, all five starters were in double figures against CS Fullerton, including Banchero who led with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Gabe Brown's 18 led Duke to beat Tom Izzo and Michigan State 85-76, after Duke was down with 2 minutes to go.  Banchero had 22 in the Texas Tech win while AJ Griffin's 16 led against Arkansas.

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Season overview: UNC

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (11)Michigan+21, (11)Virginia Tech+10, @(11)Virginia Tech+8, @(2)Duke+13, =(9)Marquette+32, =(1)Baylor+OT, =(4)UCLA+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+20
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (11)Michigan+21, @(2)Duke+13, =(4)UCLA+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+20
• Wins vs. Final Four (1): @(2)Duke+13
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(3)Purdue-9, =(3)Tennessee-17, =(2)Kentucky-29, @(11)Notre Dame-5, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20, =(11)Virginia Tech-13
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(3)Purdue-9, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20
• Losses to Final Four (1): (2)Duke-20
• Other losses (2): @Wake Forest-22, Pittsburgh-9

Overview: North Carolina's low Consistency ranking comes from the fact that every five games or so, they collapse and have a terrible performance. And conversely, every 5 games or so they play at a quite high level. Normally only good enough to beat a number of 11-seeds—Michigan, Virginia Tech twice—the Tar Heels upped their game to thrash Duke on the road. But they also managed to lose in a big way to Duke and Kentucky by 20+ points, and even Miami and Wake Forest by similar amounts.

North Carolina's defense isn't great but they do one thing really well, and that is rebound. On offense they're top 25 level without really doing anything great; they just shoot pretty well, rebound decently, and don't turn over the ball. Four players average double figures led by Armando Bacot, who also gathers an incredible 12.5 rebounds per game. But it was Brady Manek who came up big against Marquette with 28 points and 11 rebounds in the 95-63 thrashing of Marquette, probably their best game of the season. Next game, of course, they got probably their biggest win of the season, knocking off 1-seed Baylor 93-86 in double overtime; RJ Davis had 30 points. Caleb Love poured in 30 points against UCLA, and Bacot had 20 in the 69=49 stuffing of St. Peter's.

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Game Analysis: These teams already met twice this year, with wildly different results. What's interesting is that each team was clobbered on their own home court, UNC by 20 (87-67) and then Duke by 13 (94-81). In Chapel Hill Duke marched to a 31-8 lead and never let the Tar Heels back in, while Coach K's last home game was spoiled by North Carolina in a game that was close most of the way until North Carolina extended their advantage at the end.

In UNC's win their starters had 20, 21, 22, and 23 (Bacot) points; in Duke's win AJ Griffin's 27 led while only one Tar Heel topped 12 points. The Duke win had a slower, 69 possession tempo while the North Carolina win was 75 possessions, with the winner's preferred tempo being enforced in each case.

So how will the rubber match go on a neutral court? Here we have to look at Duke's post-season run and how I lacked confidence in them to get this far. One big reason was the North Carolina loss. If the team can't rally around Coach K enough to beat their bitter rival at home for his last home game, how are they going to win the NCAA title? It didn't look good. That game alone didn't make me think they'd miss the Final Four, but their subsequent exit from the ACC tournament did. I didn't think they'd be here, Coach K-rallying or not.

But they made it. One thing's clear—the loss to UNC was probably a combination of North Carolina's late surge, pressure on Duke to win for Coach K, and overconfidence at facing a team they beat by 20 on the road. They're over any nerves, obviously, and they won't underestimate the Tar Heels this time around.

Meanwhile North Carolina, one of the most erratic teams in the nation, is overdue for a toe-stub. I don't think they'll have a terrible game against their rival in a Final Four game, but I doubt they'll play like they've been playing so far during March Madness.

Vegas Line:

Duke by   4

Power rating: spread

Duke by   5.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Duke:       61.2% 
UNC:        38.8% 

Tournament performance (last 4): 

Duke:       25%   
UNC:        75%

UNC by   6.6 

Our line and the Vegas line are close, as usual, with Duke winning 61% of the time based on our Strength numbers. Over the tournament North Carolina has played the best of any team, with one outstanding game (Marquette) and three solid ones. Duke's games have all been solid but unspectacular, and overall not as good as UNC's.

If we use their last 3 games it's pretty close, with the Tar Heels favored 56% of the time and by 0.3 points.

Bottom line: We'll soon find out just how much the "rally for Coach K" effect has left in the gas tank. In reality, Duke is just playing to their potential, not exceeding it. They won't underestimate North Carolina, and I don't think they'll waste a 2nd chance to let Coach K win his last game against the Tar Heels, who can't keep playing this well (can they?)

Final prediction: Duke 82, UNC 75

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.