All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule
Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 10
Record: 25-10
Conference: ACC
vs.
Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 11
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Chicago, IL
Channel: TBS
Two unlikely foes meet in Chicago, a 10-seed and an 11-seed, meaning a double-digit seed will reach the Elite Eight once again.
Miami Iowa St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #53 Strength: #38
Median: #51 Median: #28
Markov: #29 Markov: #24
Pomeroy: #42 Pomeroy: #37
Offense: #18 Offense: #156
Defense: #123 Defense: #5
BPI: #51 BPI: #46
LRMC: #54 LRMC: #50
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #154 Tempo (Offense): #215
SOS: #47 SOS: #17
Consistency: #266 Consistency: #323
2nd half season: #25 2nd half season: #60
Last 6 [-best]: #23 [#25] Last 6 [-best]: #80 [#76]
Interestingly Iowa State is ahead in most of the power ratings, well ahead in Strength and Median Strength but just slightly ahead in Markov. They're pretty close in Pomeroy and the BPI, and also in the Selection Sunday LRMC.
The big takeaway here is the terrible scores for Miami's defense and especially Iowa State's offense. Conversely, Miami has a great #18 offense while Iowa State's defense ranks #5. When Miami has the ball this is a true Elite Eight qualifier. But it's more like the Sun Belt championship game on the other end.
Iowa State hasn't played well since mid-season, and especially recently as long as you go back before the tournament started, they were reeling. Miami has upped their game but on average they are still just a borderline top 25 team. But with that offense they can beat some pretty good teams, just like Iowa State can with their defense.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): @(2)Duke+2, (8)North Carolina+28, @(11)Virginia Tech+3, =(7)USC+2, =(2)Auburn+19
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(2)Duke+2, (8)North Carolina+28
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(6)Alabama-32, (11)Notre Dame-4, (11)Virginia Tech-1, =(2)Duke-4
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Duke-4
- Other losses (6): UCF-6, =Dayton-16, @Florida St.-1, Florida St.-1, @Virginia-13, Virginia-3
Overview: To say Miami had a rough start to the season would be putting it mildly. The Hurricanes started 4-3 with losses to UCF at home, 76-60 to Dayton, and were blown out by Alabama 96-64. After that things got better quickly and they went on a 9-game winning streak that culminated in a road win over 2-seed Duke! The ups and downs continued as they lost to FSU twice by a point each time, beat 8-seed UNC 85-57, lost to Virginia twice but split with 11-seed Virginia Tech. They played well against Duke in the rematch before losing by 4 points.
What's clear is that Miami's Strength is weighted down by their early, bad games, and that may be why their "2nd half of season" score is such an improvement (#39). That's most of it—they rank #49 from there. It also happens that the cut-off for "2nd half of season" is the big win over North Carolina. Move it ahead one game and the 'Canes are #55. Still, they are pretty solid in recent play no matter how you measure it.
Miami's improvement has mostly been on defense; they were at #194 in Pomeroy on defense in mid-January, so their current #157 probably underestimates them. But in any case, it's still not great, as both their field goal defense and rebounding are atrocious. On offense they shoot well and don't turn the ball over. They still don't rebound well but it works out and the Canes have a top 25 offense. Leading the way is Kameron McGusty with 17.6ppg, and three others average in double figures. Isaiah Wong had 22 points in the 68-66 win over USC. He led with 21 in the big win over Auburn.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(9)Memphis+19, @(9)Creighton+6, (5)Iowa+20, (3)Texas Tech+4, (6)Texas+9, @(9)TCU+3, =(6)LSU+5, =(3)Wisconsin+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (3)Texas Tech+4
- Losses to tournament teams (8): (1)Baylor-5, @(1)Kansas-1, @(3)Texas Tech-12, (9)TCU-15, (1)Kansas-9, @(6)Texas-22, @(1)Baylor-7, =(3)Texas Tech-31
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(1)Kansas-1, @(3)Texas Tech-12, (1)Kansas-9, =(3)Texas Tech-31
- Other losses (4): @Oklahoma-13, @West Virginia-16, Kansas St.-OT, Oklahoma St.-17
Overview: Iowa State has as many tournament wins as LSU, lost to better teams, but got 5 seed lines lower. Much like the Tigers, the Cyclones started out strong winning 11 straight, beating 9-seed Memphis by 19 and 5-seed Iowa by 20, and after a loss to 1-seed Baylor (5 points) they beat 3-seed Texas Tech. 13-1 with those wins and a perfectly acceptable loss? Still in line for a 2-seed, I'd say. But then the losses started to add up...and up...and up. Pretty soon the Cyclones had lost 9 of 13 games. They won 4 in a row which probably saved their at-large bid, then lost their last three. You can almost track the frustration on their chart; by the end, they've thrown in the towel, losing to Texas Tech 72-41.
It's hard to figure out how the Cyclones had any success with their dismal offense. They get the ball stolen and shots blocked with regularity, and their rebounding and shooting are dismal. They can't even make free throws! (68.4%). On defense they're the opposite: stealing the ball, guarding the 3-line well. It's amazing the same players can be so bad on one end and good on the other, but here we are. The Cyclones are led by Izaiah Brockington who somehow puts in 17.1 points per game and nabs 7.1 rebounds (probably all on defense). Tyrese Hunter led the Cyclones with 23 points against LSU. Gabe Kalscheur came up big with 22 points in the win over Wisconsin in Milwaukee.
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Game Analysis: These teams took different paths to the NCAA tournament. Iowa State started off strong and looked like a shoo-in before they started losing—a lot. They needed some wins near the end to seal their bid. Miami started poorly and even after a decent run didn't look like they were going to make it until a 7-3 run at the end.
Both teams have a huge issue: on Iowa State it's offense, and for Miami it's defense. Luckily these will more or less cancel each other out, and the sloppy play and defending we'll see when the Cyclones have the ball will be offset by the solid offense and defensive play when Miami has the ball. There, the teams rank #18 and #5 in Pomeroy.
Prior to the brackets coming out, Iowa State is about the last team I thought would make the Sweet Sixteen. They had pretty much fizzled out by the season's end. But then they were paired with a very troubled LSU team that was on the same downward spiral (I still picked the Tigers in a coin-flip of non-deserving winners). The next game they faced Wisconsin, the weakest 3-seed in recent memory. It's not impressive that they beat the Badgers, who rank like an 11-seed themselves in the power ratings, but you have to give them credit for winning in Milwaukee. That's the only impressive thing I've seen from Iowa State so far, other than their defense of course which is stellar.
Miami on the other hand had to beat a legit national title contender in Auburn and it wasn't even close at the end. You can't overlook their defensive issues but their offense can be great. The bottom line is that either way, we're going to have a very flawed team in the Elite Eight.
The "good" side of the court will feature strong play all around, with a few exceptions: Miami doesn't rebound well on offense and Iowa State's D fouls a lot. The "bad" side will feature bad shooting from Iowa State and poor defense from Miami. One exception is that Miami's D creates a lot of turnovers, and that could be bad for Iowa State. And if the game is close and comes down to free throws, Miami shoots almost 75% to Iowa State's 68%
Vegas Line:
Miami by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa St. by 1.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Miami: 45.8%
Iowa St.: 54.2%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Miami: 58.3%
Iowa St.: 41.7%
Miami by 8.3
One of the very few discrepancies the entire tournament between Vegas and Strength, the oddsmakers take the Hurricanes by a pretty hefty 2 1/2 points. Our power rating has Iowa State by about a point and a half and it's not just us, Pomeroy favors the Cyclones by 1 and BPI has them by 1.4, matching our number exactly. We have the Cyclones winning 54% of the game comparisons; historically these seeds have rarely met and the 11-seed has won 2 of 3.
Vegas seems to be considering recent play, which they normally don't do much of (the betting public is swayed far more by recent play). Or they see something in the matchup that favors Miami, like turnovers or free throws. Or they're just more impressed by a win over Auburn by 18 than a win over Wisconsin by 5.
Bottom line: We're more impressed with Miami's win over Auburn, too. Both teams are flawed but we like the Hurricanes to make the Elite Eight (not the Final Four, however).
Final prediction: Miami 67, Iowa St. 61
More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.