SportsRatings: College Basketball

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (10) Miami vs. (11) Iowa State

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Miami Hurricanes
Seed: 10
Record: 25-10
Conference: ACC

vs.

Iowa State Cyclones
Seed: 11
Record: 22-12
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Chicago, IL  
Channel: TBS

 

Two unlikely foes meet in Chicago, a 10-seed and an 11-seed, meaning a double-digit seed will reach the Elite Eight once again.

     Miami                              Iowa St.

Power Ratings

Strength:          #53             Strength:          #38
   Median:   #51                      Median:   #28
   Markov:   #29                      Markov:   #24
Pomeroy:           #42             Pomeroy:           #37
   Offense:  #18                      Offense:  #156
   Defense:  #123                     Defense:  #5
BPI:               #51             BPI:               #46
LRMC:              #54             LRMC:              #50

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #154            Tempo (Offense):   #215
SOS:               #47             SOS:               #17    
Consistency:       #266            Consistency:       #323
2nd half season:   #25             2nd half season:   #60
Last 6 [-best]:    #23 [#25]       Last 6 [-best]:    #80 [#76]

Interestingly Iowa State is ahead in most of the power ratings, well ahead in Strength and Median Strength but just slightly ahead in Markov. They're pretty close in Pomeroy and the BPI, and also in the Selection Sunday LRMC.

The big takeaway here is the terrible scores for Miami's defense and especially Iowa State's offense. Conversely, Miami has a great #18 offense while Iowa State's defense ranks #5. When Miami has the ball this is a true Elite Eight qualifier. But it's more like the Sun Belt championship game on the other end.

Iowa State hasn't played well since mid-season, and especially recently as long as you go back before the tournament started, they were reeling. Miami has upped their game but on average they are still just a borderline top 25 team. But with that offense they can beat some pretty good teams, just like Iowa State can with their defense.

 

Season overview: Miami

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): @(2)Duke+2, (8)North Carolina+28, @(11)Virginia Tech+3, =(7)USC+2, =(2)Auburn+19
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(2)Duke+2, (8)North Carolina+28
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(6)Alabama-32, (11)Notre Dame-4, (11)Virginia Tech-1, =(2)Duke-4
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Duke-4
• Other losses (6): UCF-6, =Dayton-16, @Florida St.-1, Florida St.-1, @Virginia-13, Virginia-3

Overview: To say Miami had a rough start to the season would be putting it mildly. The Hurricanes started 4-3 with losses to UCF at home, 76-60 to Dayton, and were blown out by Alabama 96-64. After that things got better quickly and they went on a 9-game winning streak that culminated in a road win over 2-seed Duke! The ups and downs continued as they lost to FSU twice by a point each time, beat 8-seed UNC 85-57, lost to Virginia twice but split with 11-seed Virginia Tech. They played well against Duke in the rematch before losing by 4 points.

What's clear is that Miami's Strength is weighted down by their early, bad games, and that may be why their "2nd half of season" score is such an improvement (#39). That's most of it—they rank #49 from there. It also happens that the cut-off for "2nd half of season" is the big win over North Carolina. Move it ahead one game and the 'Canes are #55. Still, they are pretty solid in recent play no matter how you measure it.

Miami's improvement has mostly been on defense; they were at #194 in Pomeroy on defense in mid-January, so their current #157 probably underestimates them. But in any case, it's still not great, as both their field goal defense and rebounding are atrocious. On offense they shoot well and don't turn the ball over. They still don't rebound well but it works out and the Canes have a top 25 offense. Leading the way is Kameron McGusty with 17.6ppg, and three others average in double figures. Isaiah Wong had 22 points in the 68-66 win over USC. He led with 21 in the big win over Auburn.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Iowa State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(9)Memphis+19, @(9)Creighton+6, (5)Iowa+20, (3)Texas Tech+4, (6)Texas+9, @(9)TCU+3, =(6)LSU+5, =(3)Wisconsin+5
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (3)Texas Tech+4
• Losses to tournament teams (8): (1)Baylor-5, @(1)Kansas-1, @(3)Texas Tech-12, (9)TCU-15, (1)Kansas-9, @(6)Texas-22, @(1)Baylor-7, =(3)Texas Tech-31
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(1)Kansas-1, @(3)Texas Tech-12, (1)Kansas-9, =(3)Texas Tech-31
• Other losses (4): @Oklahoma-13, @West Virginia-16, Kansas St.-OT, Oklahoma St.-17

Overview: Iowa State has as many tournament wins as LSU, lost to better teams, but got 5 seed lines lower. Much like the Tigers, the Cyclones started out strong winning 11 straight, beating 9-seed Memphis by 19 and 5-seed Iowa by 20, and after a loss to 1-seed Baylor (5 points) they beat 3-seed Texas Tech. 13-1 with those wins and a perfectly acceptable loss? Still in line for a 2-seed, I'd say. But then the losses started to add up...and up...and up. Pretty soon the Cyclones had lost 9 of 13 games. They won 4 in a row which probably saved their at-large bid, then lost their last three. You can almost track the frustration on their chart; by the end, they've thrown in the towel, losing to Texas Tech 72-41.

It's hard to figure out how the Cyclones had any success with their dismal offense. They get the ball stolen and shots blocked with regularity, and their rebounding and shooting are dismal. They can't even make free throws! (68.4%). On defense they're the opposite: stealing the ball, guarding the 3-line well. It's amazing the same players can be so bad on one end and good on the other, but here we are. The Cyclones are led by Izaiah Brockington who somehow puts in 17.1 points per game and nabs 7.1 rebounds (probably all on defense). Tyrese Hunter led the Cyclones with 23 points against LSU. Gabe Kalscheur came up big with 22 points in the win over Wisconsin in Milwaukee.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: These teams took different paths to the NCAA tournament. Iowa State started off strong and looked like a shoo-in before they started losing—a lot. They needed some wins near the end to seal their bid. Miami started poorly and even after a decent run didn't look like they were going to make it until a 7-3 run at the end.

Both teams have a huge issue: on Iowa State it's offense, and for Miami it's defense. Luckily these will more or less cancel each other out, and the sloppy play and defending we'll see when the Cyclones have the ball will be offset by the solid offense and defensive play when Miami has the ball. There, the teams rank #18 and #5 in Pomeroy.

Prior to the brackets coming out, Iowa State is about the last team I thought would make the Sweet Sixteen. They had pretty much fizzled out by the season's end. But then they were paired with a very troubled LSU team that was on the same downward spiral (I still picked the Tigers in a coin-flip of non-deserving winners). The next game they faced Wisconsin, the weakest 3-seed in recent memory. It's not impressive that they beat the Badgers, who rank like an 11-seed themselves in the power ratings, but you have to give them credit for winning in Milwaukee. That's the only impressive thing I've seen from Iowa State so far, other than their defense of course which is stellar.

Miami on the other hand had to beat a legit national title contender in Auburn and it wasn't even close at the end. You can't overlook their defensive issues but their offense can be great. The bottom line is that either way, we're going to have a very flawed team in the Elite Eight.

The "good" side of the court will feature strong play all around, with a few exceptions: Miami doesn't rebound well on offense and Iowa State's D fouls a lot. The "bad" side will feature bad shooting from Iowa State and poor defense from Miami. One exception is that Miami's D creates a lot of turnovers, and that could be bad for Iowa State. And if the game is close and comes down to free throws, Miami shoots almost 75% to Iowa State's 68%

Vegas Line:

Miami by   2 1/2

Power rating: spread

Iowa St. by   1.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Miami:        45.8% 
Iowa St.:     54.2% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Miami:        58.3%   
Iowa St.:     41.7%

Miami by   8.3 

One of the very few discrepancies the entire tournament between Vegas and Strength, the oddsmakers take the Hurricanes by a pretty hefty 2 1/2 points. Our power rating has Iowa State by about a point and a half and it's not just us, Pomeroy favors the Cyclones by 1 and BPI has them by 1.4, matching our number exactly. We have the Cyclones winning 54% of the game comparisons;  historically these seeds have rarely met and the 11-seed has won 2 of 3.

Vegas seems to be considering recent play, which they normally don't do much of (the betting public is swayed far more by recent play). Or they see something in the matchup that favors Miami, like turnovers or free throws. Or they're just more impressed by a win over Auburn by 18 than a win over Wisconsin by 5. 

Bottom line: We're more impressed with Miami's win over Auburn, too. Both teams are flawed but we like the Hurricanes to make the Elite Eight (not the Final Four, however).

Final prediction: Miami 67, Iowa St. 61

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Arizona vs. (5) Houston

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

Houston Cougars
Seed: 5
Record: 31-5
Conference: American

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: San Antonio, TX  
Channel: TBS

 

Rightful 1-seed Arizona and woefully underseeded 5 Houston play in San Antonio.

     Arizona                            Houston

Power Ratings

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #3
   Median:   #5                       Median:   #2
   Markov:   #2                       Markov:   #5
Pomeroy:           #3              Pomeroy:           #2
   Offense:  #7                       Offense:  #10
   Defense:  #19                      Defense:  #10
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #2
LRMC:              #2              LRMC:              #3

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #4              Tempo (Offense):   #322
SOS:               #71             SOS:               #79   
Consistency:       #267            Consistency:       #332
2nd half season:   #6              2nd half season:   #3
Last 6 [-best]:    #14 [#11]       Last 6 [-best]:    #3 [#2]

This is really a national-championship caliber game being played to get into the Elite Eight. Arizona is actually a strong 1-seed, and Houston now outranks them in 2 of the 3 power ratings that update. The Cougars have moved past Arizona in Pomeroy, and the BPI had them ahead already. In Strength they are still a half-point behind, but they've moved ahead in Median Strength and in out Markov chain implementation.

How Houston got a 5-seed is a mystery. It's true they didn't have many "quality" wins but neither did last year's team that got a 2-seed and this team rated just as well by any other measure. They were #3 in the NET rankings this year and only #5 last year. They should have gotten a 3-seed this year, and probably last year, too. There's certainly not a 3 seed difference between last year's results and this year's.

Houston's offense and defense both rank #10 in efficiency, while Arizona has a better offense but not as good defense. For a given game, those differences are too small to worry about, as is the difference between these teams. There's a big difference in tempo: Arizona plays as fast as just about anyone, while Houston slows it down to a crawl on offense by comparison. The Wildcats play halfcourt defense so Houston's pace on offense will stand, but the Cougars like to do the same on defense so that's where the battle of pace will occur.

Another interesting comparison is Strength of Schedule. Since Arizona is in a major conference most would assume their SOS to be quite a bit higher than Houston's as part of the American, but it's actually really close. Arizona played a weaker non-conference schedule is one reason the numbers end up close; also as a 1-seed Arizona diluted their SOS by playing 16-seed Wright State while Houston just played 4-seed Illinois to boost theirs.

In recent play Houston has done much better, especially over the last 5 games. The 6th game back for Houston is a 14-point loss to Memphis, which demonstrates their lack of consistency (#332 of 358). Arizona is pretty up and down too but you have to go 9 games back now for their last awful performance, 79-63 to Colorado. 

Season overview: Arizona

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Michigan+18, (12)Wyoming+29, @(4)Illinois+4, (4)UCLA+10, (7)USC+9, @(7)USC+20, =(4)UCLA+8, =(16)Wright St.+17, =(9)TCU+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(11)Michigan+18, (4)UCLA+10, =(4)UCLA+8
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Tennessee-4, @(4)UCLA-16
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(4)UCLA-16
• Other losses (1): @Colorado-16

Overview: Arizona raced to an 11-0 start beating 11-seed Michigan and 4-seed Illinois, and by that time people were starting to take notice. They stubbed their toe on 3-seed Tennessee on the road but they picked right back up and were 16-1 when 4-seed UCLA beat them 75-59. No problem: 9 wins later they're a crazy 25-2. That's when they suffered their worst loss by far: 79-63 at Colorado. But once again, six wins later the Wildcats were 31-3, Pac-12 champs, and had beaten a good collection of tough teams.

Arizona's fast-paced offense is one of the very best in the country. They're good on defense, too, and they settle down into the half court there and defend well, especially from 2-point range. But it's the offense that drives them. They're top 5 from 2-point range and rebound very well. Four Wildcats average in double figures led by Benedict Mathurin's 17.4ppg. Note that point guard Kerr Kriisa (#4 scorer, #1 assists) may miss the first round game. He's very likely to be back for the next game if he does. Mathurin led five in double figures with 18 in the win over Wright State. Arizona won a wild overtime game vs. TCU leaning almost exclusively on Mathurin (30 points) and Christian Koloko (12-13 from the floor, 28 points, 12 rebounds).

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (16)Bryant+67, =(9)Memphis+18, =(12)UAB+14, =(4) Illinois+15
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(3)Wisconsin-2, @(6)Alabama-1, (9)Memphis-10, @(9)Memphis-14
• Other losses (1): @SMU-2

Overview: This is why Houston got a 5-seed: only two wins over tournament teams, one of them a 16-seed play-in team. And four losses in their other opportunities to beat tournament teams. But to be fair, last year's team got a 2-seed and their résumé wasn't much different. Certainly not worthy of a 2-seed if this year's team is only a 5-seed. I mean, Houston finished #3 in the NET rankings, what are those even for?

Regardless, Houston is good enough that their seeding is going to cause an imbalance in the Force. They've shown they can lay an egg here and there but they can also beat a tournament team 111-44 (Bryant again), and a 9-seed by 18 points. Last year's team didn't get to show what they really had until the tournament and the same thing could happen here.

The Cougars shoot the 2 really well and rebound really well, too. They don't make their free throws, however (67%). They play great defense with numerous blocks and steals and everything. It's hard to compare numbers across different leagues but their schedule wasn't that bad. Houston is led by Kyler Edwards' 13.6 points per game; Marcus Sasser was the leading scorer at 17.7 but he only played 12 games before an injury ended his season (he's hinting at trying to come back for the tournament but that's pretty unlikely). Edwards led with 25 in the win over UAB, making 6 of 8 threes. Taze Moore's 21 led the rout of Illinois.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: This is going to be a killer game. It's being played in San Antonio, a lot closer to home for Houston but not that far for Arizona (almost 1,000 miles, true, but at least they're not coming in from the East coast). I'd make the case for a partial home court advantage for Houston.

Both teams appear to have the advantage when on offense, per Pomeroy, but it's close on both sides of the court. Both offenses rebound really well and will probably get a lot of 2nd opportunities. Both teams' strength is their 2-point shooting, but both teams are very solid on defense against 2-pointers. 

One big advantage Arizona has overall is height, across the board from guards to their 7-1 center. They're also a much better free throw shooting team, 74% to 67%. Houston has a big edge in turnovers; they create a lot of steals while Arizona doesn't.

Vegas Line:

Arizona by   2

Power rating: spread

Arizona by   0.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Arizona:        52.5% 
Houston:        47.5% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Arizona:        33.3%   
Houston:        66.7%

Houston by   4.0 

Vegas is clearly not giving Houston any partial home court for playing in San Antonio. The oddsmakers' spread for Arizona is a couple of points higher than ours, when usually it's the other way around. If we gave Houston full home court advantage (which is too much) the Cougars would be a 2 point favorite. It would also essentially flip the % to win between the teams. As it stands, with no home court consideration, Arizona is a 52.5% favorite, which is well below the rate that 1-seeds beat 5-seeds (around 80%). Houston is possibly the best-rated 5-seed in the 64-team era; going back to 1985 I could only find two others, 2000 Florida (went to Final Four) and 2002 Florida (lost in first round) that were in the top 5 in Strength. In the pre-64-team era, Iowa in 1980 was a 5-seed, ranked #1 in Strength, and made the FInal Four.

Bottom line: Really this is too close to call. If it comes down to turnovers Houston wins. If it comes down to free throws, Arizona wins. Probably it comes down to which way the ball bounces. I had Arizona winning here in my bracket but the way Houston is playing, plus their proximity to home might be the intangibles they need for the upset.

Final prediction: Houston 74, Arizona 72

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Villanova vs. (11) Michigan

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 28-7
Conference: Big East

vs.

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 11
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 7:29 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: San Antonio, TX  
Channel: TBS

 

A replay of the 2018 national championship game; this time only the Elite Eight as at stake.

     Villanova                          Michigan

Power Ratings

Strength:          #10             Strength:          #25
   Median:   #9                       Median:   #42
   Markov:   #11                      Markov:   #51
Pomeroy:           #11             Pomeroy:           #28
   Offense:  #8                       Offense:  #19
   Defense:  #30                      Defense:  #76
BPI:               #7              BPI:               #25
LRMC:              #9              LRMC:              #40

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #348            Tempo (Offense):   #186
SOS:               #8              SOS:               #2   
Consistency:       #213            Consistency:       #350
2nd half season:   #11             2nd half season:   #21
Last 6 [-best]:    #12 [#6]        Last 6 [-best]:    #16 [#13]

Villanova scores better across the board, which makes sense as Michigan is just an 11-seed. The one consolation for Michigan in the full-season numbers (the power ratings) is that their Offense ranks better than Villanova's defense. They just need to compensate for the fact that Villanova has a top ten Offense and their own Defense is outside the top 50 by a lot. 

The Wildcats play a super-slow tempo on offense while Michigan is about average. One area they have completely in common is a tough schedule; both are in the top ten in SOS. The fact that Villanova has half as many losses as Michigan is why they're a 2-seed and Michigan isn't. Also, Michigan's #2 SOS is the only reason they made the field in the first place at 17-14 going in.

Consistency is the big factor here. Michigan is one of the ten least consistent teams in the country, and what we've seen over the past few games is their upside. Their downside frequently strikes without warning (but normally, every 2 or 3 games) so the question is how they're going to avoid having that happen. Villanova isn't the most consistent team either, but lately they have been. With Michigan's two big tournament wins they're pretty close to playing at Villanova's level, but still just shy 

 

Season overview: Villanova

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(3)Tennessee+18, @(8)Seton Hall+6, (9)Creighton+34, (5)Connecticut+11, (8)Seton Hall+6, @(4)Providence+5, (4)Providence+2, =(5)Connecticut+3, =(9)Creighton+6, =(15)Delaware+20, =(7)Ohio St.+10
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)Providence+5, (4)Providence+2
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(4)UCLA-OT, =(3)Purdue-6, @(1)Baylor-21, @(9)Creighton-20, (9)Marquette-3, @(9)Marquette-10, @(5)Connecticut-2
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)UCLA-OT, =(3)Purdue-6
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Villanova played one of the toughest schedules in the country, with four big names on their non-conference slate. They lost to 4-seed UCLA in overtime, beat 3-seed Tennessee by 18 points, lost to 3-seed Purdue and 1-seed Baylor. And that was just in their first 10 games! After that they settled in to the Big East schedule where they went 2-1 vs. both 9-seed Creighton and 5-seed UConn, 2-0 vs. 8-seed Seton Hall and 4-seed Providence, but 0-2 vs. 9-see Marquette. The Wildcats won 5 straight at the end to win the Big East tournament.

The Wildcat offense is in the top ten in efficiency but it's also one of the slowest so they don't always put up huge point totals. Perhaps the most impressive stat is their free throw shooting: #1 in the nation at 82.3%. Despite their slow pace four Wildcats average in double figures, led by senior guard Collin Gillespie's 15.9 ppg. Justin Moore led with 21 against Delaware. Gillespie hit just 2 of 9 threes but all 8 free throws and finished with 20 points in the win over Ohio State.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Michigan

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (8)San Diego St.+14, @(12)Indiana+18, (3)Purdue+24, @(5)Iowa+5, (11)Rutgers+9, (7)Michigan St.+17, @(7)Ohio St.+6, =(6)Colorado St.+12, =(3)Tennessee+8
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (3)Purdue+24
• Losses to tournament teams (12): (8)Seton Hall-2, =(1)Arizona-18, @(8)North Carolina-21, @(11)Rutgers-8, @(4)Illinois-15, @(7)Michigan St.-16, @(3)Purdue-6, (7)Ohio St.-11, @(3)Wisconsin-14, (4)Illinois-8, (5)Iowa-11, =(12)Indiana-5
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Arizona-18, @(8)North Carolina-21, @(3)Purdue-6
• Other losses (2): Minnesota-10, @UCF-14

Overview: Michigan's season was an up and down mess as seen on their chart, punctuated appropriately by Juwan Howard's suspension and return late in the season. The Wolverines went from a great performance one day to an embarrassing loss the next, particularly near the end. Their longest win streak is 3 games back in January. But for all their losses they only fell to two non-tournament teams all year, Minnesota and UCF. And they almost always won following a loss; if they had beaten Rutgers on January 4th that would be true of the entire season.

Michigan's offense is good because they do what they're good at—shoot 2's—not what they're mediocre at (3s). They rebound well on both sides of the court, especially on defense where they don't cause many turnovers. Center Hunter Dickinson leads the team with 18.3 ppg and 8.3 rebounds. Dickinson had 21 against Colorado State on 8 of 10 shooting and 27 against Tennessee on 8 of 13 shooting to lead the Wolverines in both victories.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Michigan did it—they played 2 solid games in a row and upset 3-seed Tennessee. They broke their pattern of following a good performance with a bad one. Now they have to go for three in a row—something they haven't done all year.What makes anyone think this very inconsistent team can suddenly be reliable?

There might be one explanation, and it's the kind sportswriters love, and credit for a team's "new attitude." Whether or not there was a causal effect is unknown, but there has to be a story. In this case, it's Michigan rallying around Juwan Howard, following his suspension and return. Is this really happening? Well, sure, they're rallying behind their coach, but if the Howard incident hadn't occurred, would they not be in the Sweet Sixteen? Maybe, maybe not. But it sounds convincing because 11-seed Michigan wasn't supposed to beat a 6-seed and then a 3-seed. So if we're to believe there's something new and different about Michigan, it has to be that. Never mind that plenty of teams—like last year's UCLA—won two (or more) games as an 11-seed without any rallying behind the coach.

It's sort of important in this case, because unless that's the answer, then there's no reason to believe Michigan's win streak is going to continue. They're close to being the most erratic team in the country, so unless we know for sure why this is happening, we have to assume that their next performance is randomly much better or worse than normal, and in their case three good games in a row is so far unheard-of. 

As far as basketball goes: Michigan's edge when playing offense might not be so great; according to Pomeroy's stats, the teams are both #65 in effective field goal% (Michigan's offense and Villanova playing defense). The Wolverines do have a rebounding edge there, probably due to their height advantage, which is big: Michigan starts a 6-8, 6-11, 7-1 frontcourt to Villanova's 6-4, 6-7, 6-8. That rebounding edge will carry over to the other side of the court. But Villanova doesn't play the inside game (#350 in 2-pointers as % of points) so the don't have the notion of the "frontcourt" players on offense. They shoot 3s, a lot, and make them a lot. 

Vegas Line:

Villanova by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Villanova by   5.5

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Villanova:       62.6% 
Michigan:        37.4% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Villanova:       41.7%   
Michigan:        58.3%

Villanova by   1.0 

It's a bit surprising the line is so high on Villanova; normally Vegas is a few points lower than our Strength power rating line, and with Michigan's recent performance it might be even lower than that. But the oddsmakers are also factoring in the (high) chance of a Michigan outlier on the downside. Look at any of the red marks on the chart and see how low they are. That's what can happen. In other words, they don't believe Michigan has turned over a new leaf and is going to continue playing out of their heads.

Villanova's 63% chance to win is a lot lower than the 82% historical odds of a 2-seed beating an 11-seed (they're 14-3). These clashes are becoming more common; last year 11-seed Syracuse lost to Houston, while 11-seed UCLA beat Alabama. I keep telling people about 11-seeds and no one listens (I'm even picking against them all the time!)

Over the last 6 games Michigan has had four great performances and by comparison they beat Villanova's Last 6 games 58% of the time. But their bad performances were so bad that Villanova still comes out a point ahead.

Bottom line: Villanova will have trouble defending against Michigan's height. But I still say it's time for Michigan to have a downside game. If they have three good games in a row, we'll have to start believing our "rally-behind-the-coach" theory.

We could go with a slim win for Villanova, and that makes the most sense (which is why Vegas has it) but when making a prediction you should go bold. Either pick the upset or a big win for the favorite. In this case, if we're picking Villanova, it means they are going to have to make their threes. And if they're really on, it could be bad for Michigan. That's the scenario depicted below.

Final prediction: Villanova 80, Michigan 65

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) UCLA vs. (8) North Carolina

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

UCLA Bruins
Seed: 4
Record: 27-7
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 8
Record: 26-9
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:39 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Channel: CBS

 

March Madness Lament: I picked UNC to upset 1-seed Baylor last year and was a year early. Can the Tar Heels keep it going against UCLA?

     UCLA                               North Carolina

Power Ratings

Strength:          #11             Strength:          #28
   Median:   #11                      Median:   #21
   Markov:   #12                      Markov:   #24
Pomeroy:           #9              Pomeroy:           #22
   Offense:  #12                      Offense:  #21
   Defense:  #14                      Defense:  #44
BPI:               #11             BPI:               #21
LRMC:              #12             LRMC:              #35

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #249            Tempo (Offense):   #87
SOS:               #30             SOS:               #37   
Consistency:       #49             Consistency:       #355
2nd half season:   #9              2nd half season:   #30
Last 6 [-best]:    #16 [#15]       Last 6 [-best]:    #3 [#5]

UCLA still looks like a strong 4-seed, and North Carolina is starting to rate like a really good 8-seed. Beating a 1-seed will do that. They're in the 20s now in all the power ratings except LRMC which doesn't update.

There will be a bit of a tempo clash as UCLA is measured on offense while North Carolina is fast. Not as fast as they used to be known for, but still on the quick side. The real "clash" is consistency. UCLA plays pretty much the same game to game while North Carolina is one of the most unpredictable teams, 4th most unpredictable to be exact. Their last 2 games have pushed them to a new level of uncertainty. Lucky for them, they were both upside outliers. That makes their Last 6 Games ranking a bit hard to swallow: how do we know they don't have a downside game next? But 4 of their last 5 games have been among their best of the season, so they're in new territory. UCLA isn't playing their very best but they're getting the job done, and their previous game was one of their best, too.

Season overview: UCLA

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (2)Villanova+OT, @(9)Marquette+11, (1)Arizona+16, (7)USC+7, =(7)USC+10, =(13)Akron+4, =(5)Saint Mary's+16
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (2)Villanova+OT, (1)Arizona+16
• Losses to tournament teams (4): =(1)Gonzaga-20, @(1)Arizona-10, @(7)USC-3, =(1)Arizona-8
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Gonzaga-20, @(1)Arizona-10, =(1)Arizona-8
• Other losses (3): Oregon-OT, @Arizona St.-OT, @Oregon-5

Overview: UCLA is one of those rare teams that didn't play a terrible game; even their losses aren't bad performances. They have wins over a 1-seed (Arizona) and a 2-seed (Villanova) and three of their 7 losses are to 1-seeds Gonzaga and Arizona (twice). Two of the others are overtime losses. They just didn't ever play an objectively bad game.

UCLA's defense doesn't really excel at anything in particular, they just do everything pretty well. And on offense the Bruins avoid turnovers and shoot the ball well. Four starters average in double figures for the Bruins, and all four of them averaged double figures last year for UCLA, too—that's something you don't see too often any more. Johnny Juzang leads the team with 16.0 points per game; Jaime Jacques is #2 with 14.0 and leads with 5.8 rebounds; Jules Bernard is #3 with 12.8; and PG Tyger Campbell adds 11.5 and leads with 4.2 assists. Against Akron the Bruins were down with 5 minutes left but a 10-2 run saved their tournament; Tyger Campbell led with 16, including 8 clutch points that put them ahead for good. Campbell also led against St. Mary's with 16 again, 8 for 8 on free throws as the Bruins shot 84% as a team.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: North Carolina

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (11)Michigan+21, (11)Virginia Tech+10, @(11)Virginia Tech+8, @(2)Duke+13, =(9)Marquette+32, =(1)Baylor+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (11)Michigan+21, @(2)Duke+13
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(3)Purdue-9, =(3)Tennessee-17, =(2)Kentucky-29, @(11)Notre Dame-5, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20, =(11)Virginia Tech-13
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(3)Purdue-9, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20
• Other losses (2): @Wake Forest-22, Pittsburgh-9

Overview: North Carolina's low Consistency ranking comes from the fact that every five games or so, they collapse and have a terrible performance. And conversely, every 5 games or so they play at a quite high level. Normally only good enough to beat a number of 11-seeds—Michigan, Virginia Tech twice—the Tar Heels upped their game to thrash Duke on the road. But they also managed to lose in a big way to Duke and Kentucky by 20+ points, and even Miami and Wake Forest by similar amounts.

North Carolina's defense isn't great but they do one thing really well, and that is rebound. On offense they're top 25 level without really doing anything great; they just shoot pretty well, rebound decently, and don't turn over the ball. Four players average double figures led by Armando Bacot, who also gathers an incredible 12.5 rebounds per game. But it was Brady Manek who came up big against Marquette with 28 points and 11 rebounds in the 95-63 thrashing of Marquette, probably their best game of the season. Next game, of course, they got probably their biggest win of the season, knocking off 1-seed Baylor 93-86 in double overtime; RJ Davis had 30 points.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: What we have here is a very steady, gets the job done team vs. one that either wins big or fails spectacularly. Maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration but look at North Carolina's last 6 games in reverse order: (1) Beat 1-seed Baylor; (2) Beat Marquette by 32 points. Those are two of the best performances you could ask for. But before that (3) lost to Virginia Tech 72-59. Not so hot. Prior to that, though: (4) beat Virginia 63-43; (5) beat Duke at Duke 94-81. Again, two amazing games. Yet just before that, they needed overtime to (6) beat Syracuse at home.

The lesson here is that North Carolina is unpredictable. It's also the case that they're on a run of sorts, raising their game to a new level. Still very inconsistent, but overall probably peaking based on the fact that 4 of their 7 best performances of the year have been in the last 5 games. The question is can that last? Does the break between the 2nd round and the Sweet Sixteen cool them off?

On offense North Carolina shoots well and UCLA defends equally well, per their effective field goal percentages. It's a very even matchup. When UCLA is on offense is where they have the efficiency edge, #12 to #44. They won't worry much about turnovers—they're top 5 in avoiding them while UNC is bottom ten in causing them—but UNC defends basically as well as UCLA shoots, and they're also the #2 rebounding defense in the country. Nor do they foul a lot. UCLA's edge here looks minimal by the stats, and overall the game looks close. Surprise!

Vegas Line:

UCLA by   2 1/2

Power rating: spread

UCLA by   5.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

UCLA:        61.8% 
UNC:         38.2% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

UCLA:       36%   
UNC:        64%

UNC by   4.3 

Vegas is sticking with UCLA, but their line is unusually low compared to the Strength power rating, suggesting about a point of modification for North Carolina's great recent play. Note that the oddsmakers always stick with full-season performance first, and maybe adjust a bit for recent play. Recent play is something to consider if you're looking to pick more likely upsets on your bracket, not something to trust if you place money!

UCLA's 62% chance to win is well above the historical rate for 4-seeds against 8-seeds, which is 44%. Yes, the 8-seed normally wins, but it's only happened 9 times, with the 4-seed winning 4 of the 9. So it's not exactly an established pattern. It's going to take a while, too, since 8-seeds have made the Sweet Sixteen only 14 times in the past, and 5 of those times they met a 5 (twice), 12 (twice), or even a 13-seed (once). 

Recent performance gives the edge to North Carolina of course, as they're lighting up the court right now. 

Bottom line: I had UCLA beating Baylor at this juncture so I'm sticking with the Bruins, who have direct experience fighting their way toward the Final Four. Slow and steady win the race, right?

Final prediction: UCLA 73, North Carolina 70

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Kansas vs. (4) Providence

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Providence Friars
Seed: 4
Record: 27-5
Conference: Big East

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 7:29 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Chicago, IL  
Channel: TBS

 

As if Providence weren't hard enough to figure out before, they go and have their best game of the season.

     Kansas                             Providence

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5              Strength:          #40
   Median:   #5                       Median:   #22
   Markov:   #4                       Markov:   #29
Pomeroy:           #5              Pomeroy:           #35
   Offense:  #5                       Offense:  #32
   Defense:  #26                      Defense:  #57
BPI:               #8              BPI:               #42
LRMC:              #5              LRMC:              #56

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #46             Tempo (Offense):   #289
SOS:               #5              SOS:               #47
Consistency:       #80             Consistency:       #323
2nd half season:   #3              2nd half season:   #33
Last 6 [-best]:    #2 [#1]         Last 6 [-best]:    #25 [#32]

The numbers tell us that Kansas is good; top five in most of the power ratings, a top 5 offense and solid defense. They even play a top five schedule (it rated even higher but they played a 16-seed which diluted their SOS). They're a pretty consistent team, too, and even moreso recently it seems. After two solid tournament games they're #2 in the Last 6 Games ranking, and #1 when everyone's best game is tossed. 

The numbers don't tell us very much about Providence. Based on those numbers and their SOS of 47 you'd have to conclude they must have about 10 losses or so, but no, they have fewer losses than 1-seed Kansas. Unlike Kansas they're very inconsistent, and while Kansas has become more consistent lately, the Friars have been on a roller coaster. They play a slow tempo that will clash with Kansas' speedier style.

Season overview: Kansas

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(7)Michigan St.+13, (11)Iowa St.+1, (3)Texas Tech+OT, @(11)Iowa St.+9, (1)Baylor+24, (9)TCU+4, (6)Texas+OT, (9)TCU+13, (3)Texas Tech+9, =(16)Texas Southern+27, =(9)Creighton+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (11)Iowa St.+1, (3)Texas Tech+OT, @(11)Iowa St.+9, (3)Texas Tech+9
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(3)Texas Tech-8, (2)Kentucky-18, @(6)Texas-3, @(1)Baylor-10, @(9)TCU-10
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @(3)Texas Tech-8
• Other losses (1): =Dayton-1

Overview: Kansas always plays a tough schedule, but surprisingly their only tourney-team victim of the pre-conference season was 7-seed Michigan State in the opener. They lost to Dayton, too, but continued rolling along into the Big Twelve season racking up 8 big wins and only losing to 3-seed Texas Tech, 6-seed Texas, 1-seed Baylor, and 9-seed TCU in conference play. They also lost to 2-seed Kentucky at home, big—80-62, a game which is a big reason for their "2nd half of season" slide to #8 (it has since recovered to #3). (Similarly, the slide to #12 in "Last 6 games" was due to one bad loss. They're #2 now that it's rolled off the map.) Kansas recovered from a rare 2-game skid to win the Big Twelve tournament in impressive fashion to earn their 1-seed.

The Jayhawks play decent defense but it's their offense that shines. They do the basics well—shooting and rebounding—with an emphasis on 2-point shots. Four players average double figures led by 1st team All-American Ochai Agbaji's 19.7ppg. It was reserve guard Remy Martin who led with 15 against Texas Southern, however; he also led against Creighton with 20, playing 29 minutes.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Providence

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): @(3)Wisconsin+5, (15)Saint Peter's+14, (3)Texas Tech+4, (13)Vermont+10, @(5)Connecticut+4, (8)Seton Hall+5, (9)Marquette+2, (9)Creighton+21, =(13)South Dakota St.+13, =(12)Richmond+28
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (15)Saint Peter's+14, (3)Texas Tech+4
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(9)Marquette-32, (2)Villanova-5, @(2)Villanova-2, =(9)Creighton-27
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (2): (2)Villanova-5, @(2)Villanova-2
• Other losses (1): =Virginia-18

Overview: As mentioned, Providence is the paradox of 2022, a topic we've explored several times, asking Why are they winning? and how they would Rule the RPI, and Probably be ranked #1 if this were the 1980s. From their chart you see a lot of decent performances—but none extraordinary—with a handful of very bad collapses. On their résumé you see wins over 8 tournament teams including two 3-seeds, and losses to tournament teams with one exception. That exception, an 18-point loss to Virginia, was one of their three terrible games (the others were the 32-point loss to Marquette and 27-point loss to Creighton.

The few bad losses aside, Providence probably confounds power ratings because they play to the level of their competition. There's a reason their Strength rating is approximately equal to their SOS. They beat most teams—good or bad—by a few points; during one stretch they beat mediocre Depaul and Butler both in overtime, took 3 overtimes to beat Xavier, and lost to 2-seed Villanova by 5 on the road. What they do well is play solid defense, not forcing turnovers but defending shots well, and playing solid offense while getting to the free throw line often. Four Friars score in low double-digits led by Nate Watson's 13.8. Against South Dakota State Noah Horchler had 13 points and added 9 rebounds as the Friars coasted 66-57. He had 16 points and 14 rebounds in the 79-51 blowout of Richmond.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: These teams couldn't be more different in their consistency over the last several games. Kansas has put together solid performances to win their conference tournament and made to the Sweet Sixteen. No game was drastically different than another.

Providence on the other hand, over the last 6 games has: had their best game of the season, beating Creighton 72-51; had their worst game of the season, to the same team, losing 85-68; played their best game of the season again, besting the other one by beating Richmond by 28 points. How is it possible to know what they're going to do in their next outing?

Though it looks (by the efficiency numbers) that Providence will be more effective on offense, since KU's defense is only #26, and their real problem will be dealing with the #5 Jayhawk offense. But Providence defends very well; there's not much wrong with their defense other than not causing turnovers. Kansas wants to run and shoot the ball quick, Providence wants to force a half court possession. And it's not exactly roses when Providence has the ball, as they aren't a good shooting team and get a lot of shots blocked. So paradoxically the Friars might surprise when on defense, and struggle a bit on offense.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by   8

Power rating: spread

Kansas by   8.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas:        71.4% 
Providence:    28.6% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Kansas:        61%   
Providence:    39%

Kansas by   7.8 

Kansas is an 8 point favorite in Vegas, and a bit more in out Strength power rating. Kansas wins 71% of our game-comparisons, roughly matching the historical rate that 1-seeds beat 4-seeds. Things get closer in the recent sample, but the error margin on that must be off the charts given Providence's mood swings over the last 6 games. Ultimately the point spread doesn't change much, but the Friars' volatility has given them a better chance of an upset—or of getting blown out.

Bottom line: Since I have no idea what Providence is going to do next, I'll just assume they play their average game. That's probably what Kansas will do.

Final prediction: Kansas 72, Providence 63

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Gonzaga vs. (4) Arkansas

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 28-3
Conference: WCC

vs.

Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: SEC

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 7:09 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: San Francisco, CA  
Channel: CBS

 

Now we're getting into the nitty-gritty: Gonzaga vs. Arkansas for an Elite Eight berth.

     Gonzaga                            Arkansas

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #19
   Median:   #1                       Median:   #17
   Markov:   #1                       Markov:   #15
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #18
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #54
   Defense:  #9                       Defense:  #13
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #20
LRMC:              #1              LRMC:              #22

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #2              Tempo (Offense):   #45
SOS:               #93             SOS:               #43    
Consistency:       #253            Consistency:       #230
2nd half season:   #1              2nd half season:   #12
Last 6 [-best]:    #5 [#4]         Last 6 [-best]:    #34 [#47]

Gonzaga remains on top of the power rating heap, with Arkansas in the top 25 or so. The Zags and the Razorbacks are pretty close on defense but that's about it. They also both play a fast pace on offense, with Gonzaga much faster of course. And neither team is terribly consistent one game to the next. That's about the only thing that looks good for Arkansas in terms of getting an upset; their recent play does them no favors, and that includes their last game.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (6)Texas+12, =(4)UCLA+20, =(3)Texas Tech+14, (10)San Francisco+16, (5)Saint Mary's+16, @(10)San Francisco+16, =(10)San Francisco+10, =(5)Saint Mary's+13, =(16)Georgia St.+21, =(9)Memphis+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(4)UCLA+20, =(3)Texas Tech+14
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =(2)Duke-3, (6)Alabama-9, @(5)Saint Mary's-10
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Duke-3
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Gonzaga used to have only a handful of tournament wins, now they have several from the West Coast Conference in addition to their pre-conference season skins. The Zags beat 6-seed Texas and after beating 4-seed UCLA 83-63 they looked unstoppable. Next game they lost to 2-seed Duke  by three and then 6-seed Alabama by 9. Even the game between—a 64-55 win over powerhouse Tarleton State—was just as bad as those losses.

The Zags recovered and went on a tear, destroying every team in their path, eventually working their way back to #1. They beat 3-seed Texas Tech by 14 and added WCC wins over San Francisco (x3) and St. Mary's (x2). Late in the year they ran out of gas, just a bit. They were a little less dominant in their wins and suffered a bad loss to St. Mary's, 67-57. They beat the Gaels for the WCC title though, 82-69.

Drew Timme is the main player back from last year's team; the 6-10 center leads the team with 17.5 points per game, and right behind him is 7-0 freshman Chet Holmgren who averages 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds. Timme and Holmgren took over when things were looking bleak against Georgia State; from a 54-52 deficit they teamed up for 24 points in the next seven minutes to put the game away. Timme finished with 32, Holmgren 19. Timme had 25 points and 14 rebounds in the 82-78 comeback win vs. Memphis.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Arkansas

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @(6)LSU+7, (2)Auburn+OT, (3)Tennessee+10, (2)Kentucky+2, (6)LSU+1, =(6)LSU+12, =(13)Vermont+4, =(12)New Mexico St.+5
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @(6)Alabama-1, @(3)Tennessee-4
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Other losses (6): =Oklahoma-22, Hofstra-8, @Mississippi St.-13, Vanderbilt-1, @Texas A&M-5, =Texas A&M-18

Overview: Arkansas started out good and became great. After a 9-0 start they suffered 5 quick losses but in stair-step fashion (obviously this is a fluke but it's amusing) they got a little better with each loss, until bam! They exploded with their best game, an 87-43 beatdown of Missouri. From there they won 15 of 17 games at a high level, beating 6-seed LSU twice, 2-seed Auburn, 2-seed Kentucky, and 3-seed Tennessee. Even their losses were respectable: road losses by 1 to Alabama and 4 to Tennessee. Then came the last game, an 82-64 loss to Texas A&M, the Razorbacks' only bad game in 2 months. Does it mean anything? Did they really just run out of gas? It's possible that Texas A&M just has their number, as they beat Arkansas 2 of three times and the Razorback win went to overtime.

The Razorback fast-paced offense does everything pretty well except shoot the 3; on defense they're even better. Four players average in double figures led by JD Notae's 18.4 ppg. Stanley Umude led with 21 points against Vermont. Despite being just 5 of 18 from the floor Notae led all scorers with 18 against New Mexico State.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: There's not much hope for Arkansas on paper. They play great defense, but they're facing the top offense in the country. They play decent offense but that's probably not good enough against Gonzaga. Both teams are unpredictable, and that might be their only shot: the random luck that Gonzaga plays a bad game while they play a good game. That's not a lot to go on when making a prediction.

Arkansas' last game against New Mexico State didn't inspire confidence either. Compare that to Gonzaga's game vs. Memphis. The Bulldogs were down at half and had to battle back and win at clutch time. Arkansas led at the half, let New Mexico State back in, and held on. Gonzaga won by 4, Arkansas by 5. Not only was the "story" of Gonzaga's game a lot more reassuring, they were playing Memphis. No offense to New Mexico State, but they aren't Memphis.

Gonzaga has the height advantage by quite a bit; Arkansas will have trouble stopping both of the Zags' big men when their 2nd tallest guy on the court is 6-6.

At this point the hope for Arkansas is to get lucky with three pointers. Gonzaga is #1 in 2 point defense so that's out. Arkansas is unfortunately a terrible 3-point shooting team (30.5%) but any team can get lucky. Let them fly and see what happens!

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   8 1/2

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   10.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:        78.2% 
Arkansas:       21.8% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Gonzaga:        72%   
Arkansas:       28%

Gonzaga by   8.8 

The early line is Gonzaga by 8 1/2, and that's probably about where it will stay as that is 2 points under the Strength power rating's spread. Gonzaga's 78% chance to win is well above the historical rate of 72% for 1-seeds to beat 4-seeds. They achieve that rate in the Last 6 Games comparison, though, with a line that's close to the Vegas standard.

Bottom line: I picked Arkansas to lost to Vermont in the opener partly due to their terrible final season game. I wasn't sure they would recover from it in just one game. They didn't really, even in two games, though they won both of them. They'll need a hell of a 3rd game to beat Gonzaga.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 83, Arkansas 73

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (2) Duke vs. (3) Texas Tech

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: ACC

vs.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 27-9
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 9:39 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: San Francisco, CA  
Channel: CBS

 

Both Duke and Texas Tech will play very competitive basketball on both ends of the court.

     Duke                               Texas Tech

Power Ratings

Strength:          #11             Strength:          #7
   Median:   #10                      Median:   #7
   Markov:   #10                      Markov:   #5
Pomeroy:           #11             Pomeroy:           #6
   Offense:  #4                       Offense:  #44
   Defense:  #44                      Defense:  #1
BPI:               #12             BPI:               #9
LRMC:              #11             LRMC:              #6

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #178            Tempo (Offense):   #208
SOS:               #63             SOS:               #22    
Consistency:       #185            Consistency:       #214
2nd half season:   #12             2nd half season:   #2
Last 6 [-best]:    #53 [#50]       Last 6 [-best]:    #1 [#5]

An interesting situation where the 3-seed outranks the 2-seed in every power rating, without exception. The most interesting part however is the Offense and Defense breakdowns by Pomeroy. Texas Tech has the #44 offense, matched by Duke's #44 defense. Meanwhile when they have the ball Duke is the #4 offense playing against the nation's #1 defense. Both ends of the court are too close to call but the real fireworks will be when the Blue Devils are trying to score.

Many times in our reviews we've seen that the team with the full-season advantage is not the team with the recent play advantage. In this case, Texas Tech's margin grows: they're #2 in the 2nd half of the season, and #1 in very recent play (Last 6 games), while Duke fades to a dismal #53! The real story behind those last 6 games only becomes clear on the charts. Basically Duke has played 4 good-but-not-great games and two awful duds, while Texas Tech has played 4 good-but-not-great games and 2 outrageously good ones. So each team is playing majority "good" games, 4 of the last 6; it's the other two that makes all the difference.

Season overview: Duke

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(2)Kentucky+8, =(1)Gonzaga+3, (11)Virginia Tech+11, @(11)Notre Dame+14, @(8)North Carolina+20, =(10)Miami FL+4, =(15)Cal St. Fullerton+17, =(7)Michigan St.+9
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Gonzaga+3, @(8)North Carolina+20, =(10)Miami FL+4
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @(7)Ohio St.-5, (10)Miami FL-2, (8)North Carolina-13, =(11)Virginia Tech-15
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (2): (10)Miami FL-2, (8)North Carolina-13
• Other losses (2): @Florida St.-OT, Virginia-1

Overview: Duke quietly had a Duke-like season and nobody really noticed. Until the very end, the Blue Devils seemed like the typical Duke team that wins national titles: lose a handful of games and then win six in a row. They beat two of the best teams in the country—1-seed Gonzaga and 2-seed Kentucky—and people seem to treat it like a fluke.

Finally, then, they laid a couple of eggs and people said "I knew they weren't any good" but before that they played 7 of their best games in a row. It's kind of odd how the Blue Devils were counted out of a season where the possibility of team emotion taking them to a title had to be a strong possibility. The blowout loss to North Carolina in Coach K's home final seemed to indicate that there would be no amazing ending like there was to John Wooden's career (going out with a title) but then again Wooden didn't announce his retirement until the night before the championship game. Coach K announced it before the season started and it's been a Farewell Tour the whole year. It sounds like he just wants to get it over with.

The loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game was further evidence that the Big Dance may end early for Duke. That and the other home losses, to Miami and Virginia, were signposts that something is wrong in Durham. They're still a good team, still capable of beating anyone, but it doesn't look like there will be any added magic due to Coach K's retirement. Maybe it's because of one-and-done turnover that the team can't muster a proper send-off?

This year's team has great talent, with 5 players averaging double figures on offense, led by 6-10 freshman forward Paolo Banchero's 17.0 points and 7.8 rebounds. As usual Duke shoots the ball well, shoots the 3 well, plays decent defense and doesn't foul much at all. True to form, all five starters were in double figures against CS Fullerton, including Banchero who led with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Gabe Brown's 18 led Duke to beat Tom Izzo and Michigan State 85-76, after Duke was down with 2 minutes to go. 

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Texas Tech

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(3)Tennessee+OT, (1)Kansas+8, @(1)Baylor+3, (11)Iowa St.+12, (6)Texas+13, (9)TCU+13, (1)Baylor+10, @(6)Texas+6, =(11)Iowa St.+31, =(14)Montana St.+35, =(11)Notre Dame+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (1)Kansas+8, (11)Iowa St.+12, =(11)Iowa St.+31
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(4)Providence-4, =(1)Gonzaga-14, @(11)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-OT, @(9)TCU-3, @(1)Kansas-9
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (5): @(4)Providence-4, =(1)Gonzaga-14, @(11)Iowa St.-4, @(1)Kansas-OT, @(1)Kansas-9
• Other losses (3): @Kansas St.-11, @Oklahoma-15, @Oklahoma St.-1

Overview: Texas Tech plays in the Big Twelve so there's a wealth of tournament teams to play; they ended up 9-6 vs. the field, with three other conference losses. They played three tournament teams outside the conference and went 1-2, beating 3-seed Tennessee in overtime but losing to 4-seed Providence and 1-seed Gonzaga. They beat 1-seeds Baylor twice and Kansas once to make them 3-1 vs. 1-seeds, not bad for a 3-seed.

Looking at their last 6 games you can imagine a slight decline. Five of the six games were a bit lower than their average, with one outlier (the 72-41 win over 11-seed Iowa State), which is how you get the #13 ranking, #24 with high score removed. Either way it doesn't look great, but note that just before that they played four fantastic games; in a sample of the "last 10 games" Texas Tech ranks #4.

Defense is the key for Texas Tech and they do it all: turnovers, blocks, and limiting opponents' field goal percentage. On offense the Raiders aren't nearly as productive but they're still very close to having 5 double-digit scorers, led by Bryson Williams' 13.7ppg. Williams had 20 against Montana State, matched by Terrence Shannon, Jr. in the 97-62 romp. The Red Raiders overcame terrible shooting (36%) to beat Notre Dame 59-53 led by Kevin Obanor's 15 (that's what defense does for you—Notre Dame shot 33%).

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: The cool thing about this game is the Pomeroy numbers for Offense and Defense and the matchups it makes (ok, only a power rating geek would say something like that but it's true). Duke and Texas Tech share a #44 rating when the Red Raiders have the ball, and they are #4 and #1 when Duke has the ball. Somehow that slight edge for Tech on defense translates into being 5 spots higher overall.

So let's look at those matchups, especially when Duke has the ball. Texas Tech's guards are much taller than Duke's, but the height advantage doesn't extend to the bigs. In the end the teams are roughly the same average height. Duke's offense shoots well and rebounds well but guess what, Tech's defense guards well and rebounds well. The 2-point range will be key as both are borderline top ten (Duke in making 2s, Tech in preventing them). Tech's defense also gets a lot of blocks and steals; they do pretty much everything, hence the #1 ranking.

When Tech is on offense they are pretty focused on the 2-point shot and they're good at it. Duke defends pretty well there, and rarely fouls. The Raiders should have a big rebounding edge here. They're vulnerable to steals but Duke doesn't cause many turnovers.

Overall it looks really even, naturally, on both sides of the court but it almost seems like Texas Tech's offense might have to win this one for them, even more than their defense. Duke has to make their 2-point shots against Tech's stingy defense, and they have the big men to do it.

Vegas Line:

Texas Tech by   1

Power rating: spread

Texas Tech by   0.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Duke:        49.4% 
Texas Tech:  50.6% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Duke:        41.7%   
Texas Tech:  58.3%

Texas Tech by   11.6 

If you ever doubted that computer power ratings form the basic for Vegas' oddsmaking (does anyone still?) look no further than the fact that Texas Tech is favored by a point, matching almost exactly the Strength power ratings's margin (Pomeroy also has Tech by 1). Fans in the 90's would be dismayed by things like this; they didn't know about the computers and to them power ratings were that thing Sagarin had in the USA Today that didn't have any effect on Selection Sunday or the AP Poll.

Note how close the game is by the game-comparison system, almost a 50/50 split. 2-seeds beat 3-seeds more than 60% of the time historically, but Texas Tech is a 2-seed quality team so it's very even. The recent sample boosts Texas Tech's odds by a bit and the spread by a lot, mainly because that 6-game spread includes 2 of Tech's best games and 2 of Duke's worst. If we make it a 10-game spread it's back to exactly 50/50, but Tech still "wins" by 5 points in the average game.

Bottom line: I picked this game for Texas Tech in my bracket and don't see a reason to change. Duke has done about as well as I expected with no real "boost" for Coach K yet. Beating Tom Izzo is probably all he really wanted to do when he saw the brackets anyway.

Final prediction: Texas Tech 70, Duke 65

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (3) Purdue vs. (15) St. Peter's

All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 3
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

St. Peter's Peacocks
Seed: 15
Record: 21-11
Conference: MAAC

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 7:09 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Philadelphia, PA  
Channel: CBS

 

Is third try a charm? St. Peter's tries to be the first 15-seed to reach the Elite Eight.

     Purdue                             St. Peter's

Power Ratings

Strength:          #13             Strength:          #117
   Median:   #11                      Median:   #112
   Markov:   #13                      Markov:   #124
Pomeroy:           #14             Pomeroy:           #101
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #225
   Defense:  #86                      Defense:  #28
BPI:               #10             BPI:               #98
LRMC:              #14             LRMC:              #118

Other Measures:

Tempo (Offense):   #204            Tempo (Offense):   #289
SOS:               #26             SOS:               #145   
Consistency:       #217            Consistency:       #287
2nd half season:   #15             2nd half season:   #99
Last 6 [-best]:    #19 [#16]       Last 6 [-best]:    #39 [#31]

None of the numbers here are a surprise; Purdue will be a pretty huge favorite in this game, St. Peter's recent heroics notwithstanding. As we mentioned in our first review of St. Peter's (vs. Kentucky): it's astounding that they play such great defense. It's also astounding that they somehow overcame their terrible offense to beat teams like Kentucky and Murray State. Their defense will be put to the test by one of the best offenses in the country. Hell, their offense will be put to the test by Purdue's mediocre defense.

Season overview: Purdue

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (16)Wright St.+44, =(8)North Carolina+9, =(2)Villanova+6, (5)Iowa+7, @(4)Illinois+OT, @(5)Iowa+10, (7)Ohio St.+3, (11)Michigan+6, (4)Illinois+16, (11)Rutgers+12, (12)Indiana+2, =(7)Michigan St.+5, =(14)Yale+22, =(6)Texas+10
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(8)North Carolina+9, =(2)Villanova+6, (11)Michigan+6
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @(11)Rutgers-2, (3)Wisconsin-5, @(12)Indiana-3, @(11)Michigan-24, @(7)Michigan St.-3, @(3)Wisconsin-3, =(5)Iowa-9
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(11)Michigan-24
• Other losses (0): None

Overview: Purdue didn't lose to anyone outside the Big Ten this year, or outside the NCAA tournament field. They beat three tournament teams outside the Big Ten, 16-seed Wright State, 8-seed UNC, and most impressively 2-seed Villanova on a neutral court. They beat just about every Big Ten team at least once except for fellow 3-seed Wisconsin.

After their worst loss (82-58 at Michigan) the Boilermakers played their last 9 games at a very consistent level. They went 6-3 over this span and were very even keel, win or lose. Their rating during this time period is only about #32, substantially lower than they played before. The losses (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa) were not bad losses but neither were the wins astounding. If they did decline, did their defense get worse or their offense become less awesome? It looks like the defense played the same but the offense lost about 10 points on average, starting with the Michigan loss, or about 7.5 points average over the last 8 games. Purdue was ranked #1 in offensive efficiency a month ago, now they're #3.

But the #3 offense is nothing to sneeze at. And having the #4 3-point shooting team and #12 2-point shooting team is a good thing. The Boilermakers boast 4 players in double figures led by Jaden Ivey with 17.4 points per game; he led Purdue over Yale with 22 points. Trevion Williams had 22 against Texas on 10 of 13 shooting. 

             **************************************************************

Season overview: St. Peter's

• Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(2)Kentucky+OT, =(7)Murray St.+10
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (1): @(4)Providence-14
• Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(4)Providence-14
• Other losses (10): @VCU-3, @St. John's-21, Siena-2, St. Francis NY-11, @Stony Brook-1, @Canisius-3, @Iona-8, Rider-9, Iona-9, @Siena-14

Overview: St. Peter's struggled early and finished great. 3-6 midway through December, the Peacocks persevered and waded through the Metro Atlantic schedule, but things didn't really click until after they'd lost 3 of 4, badly, with four games left. They suddenly seemed to hit their stride, winning all four by double digits and carrying that level of play through to the MAAC tournament, which they won.

In the end they have little to show for it as a résumé: no tournament teams defeated, and only one played, plus 10 losses to non-tournament teams. Hence the 15-seed. But right now they're playing like a 12-seed, and 12-seeds very often win games in the tournament. Only two 15-seeds have even made the Sweet Sixteen (Florida Gulf Coast and just last year, Oral Roberts). It's happened 22 times with 12-seeds. Of course, they start by playing a 5-seed not a 2-seed...but St. Peter's took the first step.

In any case, St. Peter's full-season offensive figures look dismal: poor shooting, lots of shots blocked and victimized by steals a lot. But the defense does everything right except than their high free throw rate (lots of shooting fouls). The Peacocks only have two players in double figures—a bad offense with a slow tempo will do that—but one of them is KC Ndefo (10.6 ppg) who also leads the team in steals and blocks, which is what wins games for St. Peter's. The Peacocks got their first victory of the year over a tournament team in style, beating Kentucky in overtime behind Daryl Banks III's 27 points. They advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, beating Murray State as Ndefo led with 17 points and 10 rebounds. 

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams have played 2 great games in the tournament, with Purdue's slightly more impressive. If you grade on a curve, however, St. Peter's wins as a 15-seed are way more amazing certainly. But the question is can they keep it going? Can they do what the other 15-seeds before them failed to do, reach the Elite Eight? Let's take a look at their predecessors, 2013 Florida Gulf Coast and 2021 Oral Roberts.

In 2013 Florida Gulf Coast, or Dunk City, reached the Sweet Sixteen by beating 2-seed Georgetown by 10, and 7-seed San Diego State by 10. They lost to 3-seed Florida by 12.

Last year, Oral Roberts beat 2-seed Ohio State 75-72 in overtime, and 7-seed Florida by 3. They lost to 3-seed Arkansas by 2.

Those were pretty different paths in terms of margin of victory. FGCU dominated their first two opponents, then were gut-punched back to reality by Florida. Oral Roberts edged both their opponents and barely got beat themselves.

St. Peter's is a combo of the two; they needed overtime to beat Kentucky, and beat Murray State handily in the end. But their game performances are more like FCGU's, a higher level than Oral Roberts achieved last season. 

Oral Roberts had a decent offense and terrible defense, the inverse of St. Peter's. FCGU was more balanced in efficiency. The only thing the two past examples really have in common is a loss in the Sweet Sixteen. So we can assume the end is coming for St. Peter's but it's not clear if they'll flop or make it close...or blaze their own trail with another upset.

To do that they'll have to solve the problem of Purdue's great offense, and also the problem of their own terrible offense. They did that twice in a row, but this time the offense is the best they've faced, and also the tallest team they've faced.

Vegas Line:

Purdue by   12 1/2

Power rating: spread

Purdue by   14.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Purdue:        84.4% 
St. Peter's:   15.6% 

Recent game performance (last 6): 

Purdue:        72.2%   
St. Peter's:   27.8%

Purdue by   4.3 

Purdue is a whopping favorite; normally by the Sweet Sixteen the lines are all single digits, but that's because the seeds usually are, too. Or at at least 12 or better. We give Purdue an 84% chance to win the game; historically, 100% of 3-seeds have defeated 15-seeds (2 times out of 2). Since one of those was a 2-point game, 84% is probably not far from the real odds if they played more often.You have to figure these odds would fall between the 93% win rate of 2-seeds to beat 15-seeds and the 86% rate of 3-seeds to beat 14-seeds. Let's call it about 90%.

Those odds fall in the recent sample, and by going back further you can get it pretty close (down to about 2 points) before you start to hit St. Peter's really bad games, then it falls apart. 

Bottom line: We'll assume the two teams will play the way they played in the tournament so far, as both have had two similar games.

Final prediction: Purdue 70, St. Peter's 67

More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.