SportsRatings: College Basketball

Crouching Tigers: Missouri, LSU defy nay-sayers (that's us) by beating Kentucky, Arkansas

Missouri and LSU both pulled off huge upsets yesterday, with Mizzou impressively topping Kentucky 89-75 and LSU beating Arkansas 60-57.

Both Tiger teams were both 11-1 as of last Sunday. That sounds pretty good, but in our Dance Chance we only gave Missouri a 9.6% chance of making the tournament, and LSU a paltry 3.6% chance! The reason is the same for both teams: neither rated very high in Strength (Missouri was #60, LSU just #124) and both were entering the thick of the SEC season. 

Thus far, at 11-1 Missouri's SOS ranked #184 out of 363 teams and we put LSU's at #236. By the end of the season those will be up to #64 and #63, meaning the easy part is done and the tough part ahead for both teams, especially LSU. As a result, we projected Missouri to finish 17-14 and LSU 16-15. After an 11-1 start for each, that's 6-13 and 5-14.

The first step toward that slump for each was supposed to be Wednesday night. Though both Tiger teams were playing at home, we figured Kentucky would beat Mizzou by around 7 points and Arkansas would handle LSU by about the same. 

So while neither game is a huge upset, it does show that maybe these teams will rise to the occasion and prove their early records aren't a fluke. Both are now 12-1 and neither is ranked in the AP poll—which goes to show just how much power ratings like Kenpom.com affect voters these days. In the 80s, both these teams would have been ranked in the top 20 for sure, maybe top ten. Instead, Missouri is tied at #31 with 57 AP points, while LSU doesn't have a single vote.

LSU moved up to #109 in Strength with the win, and Missouri is up to #56. In Kenpom LSU only moved up 2 spots, but they were already #78 and moved to #76. Missouri jumped from #43 to #34. 

Missouri's start is quite a turnaround from last year's lackluster 12-21 performance. We put the Tigers #81 in our pre-season rankings, which was quite an improvement from last year's finish but they've been a lot more impressive. Missouri had a great "transfer class" which led to our upgrade, but things have worked out even better than we'd foreseen.

LSU's success is both more expected yet more amazing in some ways. Despite finishing 22-12 and making the NCAA tournament, the LSU Tigers faced an NCAA probe that led to the firing of coach Will Wade, and the departure of pretty much every scholarship player on the roster: one went pro, one graduated, and 11 others transferred.

New coach Matt McMahon put together a team of transfer portal players that joined the few who remained in Baton Rouge, and along with 4 traditional recruits from high school formed a team that we generously ranked at #34 pre-season. Only the BPI had the Tigers in the top 25 (at #25)—they've since fallen to #70. So while they haven't exceeded expectations in power ratings, they've certainly done well in the win-loss column. And measured from the point at which they basically had no players, they've made quite a turnaround.

It's still not known whether LSU will be allowed to play in the post-season should they make it, as the NCAA probe continues. Like Missouri they've got a long way to go but Wednesday was a good start for both Tiger teams.

 

2023 week 7 recap: Xmas upsets bring seed change

The slower week ahead of Christmas day was met with some shocking upsets and careless losses. Though there weren't as many games there was still some movement in our projected seeding via the Dance Chance.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
  1. Connecticut              13-0   31-0    BE     91.7   +2.4    1    1
  2. Purdue                   12-0   29-2    B10    91.3   +1.7    1    1
  3. Arizona                  12-1   29-2    P12    90.9   +2.0    1    1
  4. Tennessee                10-2   29-2    SEC    90.5   +5.0    1    3

First order of business: UConn sneaks past Purdue to take over as the overall #1 seed. Not surprising given the fact that UConn is favored in every game going forward. But can the Huskies really go unbeaten in the Big East? They really do have a small chance, and face hurdles in Villanova and Xavier this week. The Boilermakers have one non-conference game left before they go all-Big-Ten next week. Arizona's non-conference slate is over; they play at Arizona State on Saturday.

New in the top seed line is Tennessee, up from the 3-line primarily because their 42-point win over Austin Peay upgraded their Strength enough to project the Vols at 29-2 instead of 28-3. Even if that comes true, the bottom line is that conference tournaments can determine a lot about the 1-seeds. If these four teams entered their conference tournaments exactly as shown, only UConn would be guaranteed to remain there. Tennessee plays at Mississippi Wednesday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
  5. Houston                  12-1   30-1    Amer   90.2   +1.7    2    1
  6. UCLA                     11-2   28-3    P12    89.8   +2.0    2    2
  7. Baylor                    9-2   26-5    B12    89.4   +2.0    2    2
  8. Gonzaga                  10-3   28-3    WCC    89.1   +2.0    2    2
  9. Texas                    10-1   27-4    B12    88.7   +0.5    3    2
 10. Alabama                  10-2   26-5    SEC    88.3   +2.4    3    3
 11. Kansas                   11-1   26-5    B12    88.0   +4.2    3    5
 12. Virginia                  8-2   26-3    ACC    87.6   +1.3    3    3

Houston is the team that slips from a 1-seed, even while projected to win out. That's what happens when you're in a non-Major conference. The Cougars have a much better shot at actually winning out from here than any of the 1-seeds, so they probably end up there if they go 30-1. Their American Athletic season begins on Wednesday at Tulsa.

Texas and Kansas both land on the 3-line this week, with the Longhorns dropping from a 2-seed and the Jayhawks moving up from a 5-seed. It looks like they're related phenomenon, as Kansas gains a win and Texas loses one—Kansas is now favored against Texas in one of their two future clashes. Strange, because Texas' 100-72 win over Louisiana was stronger than KU's 68-54 win over Yale. But the bottom line is that these teams are very close in ratings and split the home/away, which is probably accurate. Both dive into the Big Twelve season this week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 13. Indiana                  10-3   24-7    B10    87.2   +2.4    4    4
 14. Duke                     10-3   26-5    ACC    86.8   +1.7    4    4
 15. Charleston               12-1   30-1    CAA    86.5   +3.5    4    5
 16. Florida Atlantic         11-1   29-2    CUSA   86.1   +2.8    4    5
 17. Illinois                  8-4   23-8    B10    85.7   +1.6    5    4
 18. North Carolina            9-4   24-7    ACC    85.4   +4.6    5    7
 19. Arkansas                 11-1   25-6    SEC    85.0  +14.1    5    8
 20. Kentucky                  8-3   25-6    SEC    84.6   +0.2    5    4
 21. Ohio St.                  8-3   22-9    B10    84.2   +1.6    6    5
 22. UAB                      10-2   28-3    CUSA   83.9   +2.0    6    6
 23. Utah St.                 11-2   28-3    MWC    83.5   -3.2    6    3
 24. Sam Houston St.          10-2   28-2    WAC    83.1   +6.6    6    7

Duke got hit by one of last week's upsets (to Wake Forest) but it didn't set them back in the long run it seems. Meanwhile mid-Majors Charleston (of the Colonial Athletic) and Florida Atlantic (of Conference USA) are still priced to perfection, or nearly so, and both move up to 4-seeds. Can either of them really finish out like this? Probably not but FAU has a much better chance, given that they are #19 in Strength to Charleston's #72, and the Owls have a loss to give. One of their toughest tests—at North Texas—is up next. Charleston also has a very tough test on Saturday vs. Towson.

North Carolina's season has been a mixed bag so far, but they've recovered from their slump and are up to a 5-seed now going into the ACC season. And Arkansas is flying high, up from an 8-seed as their 85-51 win over UNC Asheville impressed our power ratings apparently—they went from 23-8 to 25-6. Meanwhile the upset bug hit Illinois, though losing to 11-1 Missouri isn't necessarily an upset. The Illini drop from a 4-seed to a 5-seed, as does Kentucky. The Wildcats face the Tigers on Wednesday before facing Louisville on Saturday at home, which should be an interesting atmosphere to say the least. Now there's an upset that would make headlines!

Speaking of upsets, Utah State went into last week undefeated with 2 games on their schedule, and ended up going 2-2. First they were picked off by lowly Weber State 75-72, then the Aggies went 2-1 in a tournament, beating SMU and Washington State while losing to SMU 77-74 in between. The result isn't as bad as it could have been; they fall from a 3-seed to a 6-seed and are still favored in every game except one, and still our favorite to win the Mountain West. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 25. West Virginia            10-2   23-8    B12    82.8   +7.7    7    8
 26. San Diego St.             9-3   24-6    MWC    81.2   -1.0    7    6
 27. Kent St.                 10-3   28-3    MAC    79.8   +0.5    7    7
 28. New Mexico               12-0   26-4    MWC    78.3   -2.8    7    6
 29. James Madison             9-4   27-4    SB     76.9   -4.6    8    6
 30. Oral Roberts             10-3   26-3    Sum    75.4   +7.3    8    9
 31. Yale                     10-3   24-3    Ivy    74.0  +21.2    8   12
 32. Maryland                  9-3   22-9    B10    72.5   +7.2    8    9
 33. Saint Mary's             10-4   24-6    WCC    71.1   -1.2    9    8
 34. Rutgers                   8-4   22-9    B10    69.6   -4.1    9    8
 35. Colorado                  8-5   18-13   P12    68.2   +8.4    9   10
 36. Marquette                 9-4   23-8    BE     66.7   +0.0    9    9

The rest of the Mountain West's contingent is here, with San Diego State and New Mexico both sliding to 7-seeds for unknown reasons (probably Utah State's losses hurt their SOS). The Lobos are one of the nation's few (three) undefeated teams; they take on Colorado State and Wyoming this week with about a 50/50 chance to stay unbeaten, though they are favored in both games.

The 8-line is filled with minor-conference "winners" who could all be strong enough to get an at-large if they need it. James Madison (Sun Belt) drops from a 6-seed though after losing in double overtime to Coppin State. Yale leaps from a 12-seed to an 8-seed despite their 24-3 projection remaining constant. The Bulldogs' Strength went up a lot as our pre-season component (where Yale was #197) is diminishing rapidly. Both teams—as well as the Summit League's Oral Roberts—are favored in all their remaining games so they'll all have to be near-perfect to remain in at-large territory. James Madison has the toughest test this week when they head to Marshall on Saturday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 37. Xavier                   10-3   24-7    BE     65.3   +4.1   10   10
 38. Memphis                  10-3   26-5    Amer   63.8   +8.2   10   11
 39. Creighton                 8-6   22-9    BE     62.3  +13.7   10   12
 40. Auburn                   10-2   23-8    SEC    60.9  +10.9   10   12
 41. Iowa                      8-4   22-9    B10    59.4  -18.4   11    7
 42. Arizona St.              11-2   22-9    P12    58.0  -11.5   11    9
 43. Penn St.                  9-3   20-11   B10    56.5   -7.4   11   10
 44. Utah                      9-4   21-10   P12    55.1   -7.5   11   10
 45. Virginia Tech            11-2   24-7    ACC    53.6   -0.6   12   11
 46. N.C. State               11-3   23-8    ACC    52.2  +18.0   12    
 47. Southern Miss            11-2   26-5    SB     50.7   +5.4   12   13
 48. Iona                      9-4   27-4    MAAC   49.3   -7.7   12   11

Creighton finally broke their 6-game losing streak with wins vs. Butler and DePaul, but it gets tougher this week: Seton Hall on Tuesday and UConn—on the road—on Saturday. Would be a great way to bounce back though, right?

When we talk about Xmas upsets, the Iowa loss to Eastern Illinois will be one for the ages. The Panthers were #342 in Strength with Iowa at #21. The Hawkeyes were 31.5 point favorites and lost by 9, four days before Xmas and hours before the huge winter storm that's still covering the nation was moving in. Rarely is there a "trap" game at home but this one was it, how overconfident were the Hawks going in? The result was a fall from a 7-seed to an 11-seed, meaning they're still expected to make it but pretty much a bubble team now, though getting leading scorer Kris Murray back will help going forward. They face fellow 11-seed Penn State on Sunday.

On the 12-line, Virginia Tech was upset by Boston College last week and falls a seed, while Southern Miss was beaten by UNLV but moves up as the loss was expected and accounted for in their 26-5 projection. Joining the seeding is NC State, who was in the First Four out but gained a lot this week. They only beat Louisville so it had to be something else amongst all the data that led to the jump (it looks like they flipped one game in their favor as their pre-season #94 rating fades away).

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 49. Miami FL                 12-1   23-8    ACC    47.8  +16.4   13     
 50. Mississippi St.          11-1   23-8    SEC    46.4   -5.0   13p  12
 51. Bradley                   9-4   25-6    MVC    45.9  +20.1   13   14
 52. Iowa St.                  9-2   17-13   B12    44.5   +0.5   13p  13p
 53. Marshall                 11-2   27-4    SB     43.0   +1.9   13p  14p
 54. UNLV                     11-1   23-7    MWC    41.6   +6.0   13p     
 55. Texas Tech                9-2   18-13   B12    40.1   +3.1        
 56. Nevada                   10-3   21-10   MWC    38.7   -3.9        13p
 57. Boise St.                10-3   21-10   MWC    37.2  -21.1        11
 58. Wisconsin                 9-2   17-13   B10    35.8   -2.6        
 59. Oklahoma St.              8-4   14-17   B12    34.3   +5.7        
 60. Oregon                    7-6   17-14   P12    32.9   -6.9        14p

This week's bubble adds two teams above water, Miami and UNLV. The Hurricanes are now 12-1, the Rebels 11-1, with realistic projections of 23-8 and 23-7. That would put them in position to get at-large bids if they do well in their conference tournaments, otherwise they're still in the danger zone. Meanwhile it's Bradley that improves their lot the most; the Braves might still have to win the Missouri Valley but two strong wins last week improved their at-large potential a lot.

UNLV isn't the only Mountain West team hoping to become the 4th team from that conference to go dancing—Nevada and Boise State are on the bubble but fall to the First Four Out this week. The Wolf Pack had a tepid win over Norfolk State, and the Broncos were worse, losing to Santa Clara 73-58. The rest of the bubble is made up of good Major conference teams stuck with a tough schedule: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Oregon may struggle to stay above .500 overall but they're good enough that they have a chance to turn things in their favor, hence the bubble locale. The Ducks have had a killer pre-conference schedule with Houston and UConn, plus UCLA already. But losing to Utah Valley at home—another Xmas surprise—dropped them to 7-6, not the best place to be in December if you're hunting an at-large bid.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/18)
 62. UC Irvine                 7-5   27-5    BW     30.0  -15.9   14   13
 65. Dayton                    8-5   24-7    A10    25.6  +15.6   14    
 66. UMass Lowell             12-2   29-2    AE     24.2  +12.3   14   14
 72. Liberty                   9-4   26-5    ASun   15.5   +2.2   14    
 73. Saint Louis               8-5   23-8    A10    14.0  -33.2        13
 74. Youngstown St.            9-4   27-4    Horz   12.5   +3.5   15   15
 86. Furman                    9-4   26-5    SC      7.4   -3.1   15   15
 89. Jacksonville              7-3   23-6    ASun    6.7  -10.8        14
110. Montana St.               7-6   23-8    BSky    4.0   -0.5   15   15
136. SIU Edwardsville          9-4   25-6    OVC     3.3   +0.3   15   16p
142. North Carolina Central    6-7   19-8    MEAC    3.1   +0.2   16   16p
145. Grambling St.             6-5   24-6    SWAC    3.0   -0.1   16    
146. Gardner Webb              5-7   19-11   BSth    3.0   +0.2   16p    
152. Colgate                   6-7   23-8    Pat     2.9   -0.7   16p  15
153. High Point                8-4   21-9    BSth    2.8   -0.4        16
170. Southern                  4-9   21-10   SWAC    2.4   -1.0        16
178. Northwestern St.          8-4   23-8    Slnd    2.2    0.0   16p    
181. Texas A&M Corpus Chris    6-6   22-9    Slnd    2.1   -1.0        16p
235. Wagner                    7-4   23-4    NEC     0.7   -0.7   16p  16p

Past the at-large teams to the 1-bid arena, we have Dayton taking over as the Atlantic 10 favorite from St. Louis, yet another victim of the pre-Xmas massacre as the Billikens lost to SIU Edwardsville 69-67 at home. 

In the Atlantic Sun, we now have Liberty as the auto-bid, replacing Jacksonville whose 11-point win over lowly Louisiana Monroe looks like it sapped the Dolphins' Strength a bit.

In the SWAC, despite losing twice last week Grambling State replaces Southern (who lost once), with their rankings so close things could easily change next week. It will probably come down to what should be a competitive conference tournament.

The Big South now shows 5-7 Gardner Webb over 8-4 High Point, another matchup that looks like a close conference tournament will have to decide.

And finally the closest cut of all: Northwestern State barely moves in front of Texas A&M CC, or rather the latter drops beneath the Demons. The two face each other on Saturday for what might be a preview of the Southland tournament final.

Upsets roil teams pre-Xmas: First loss for Utah State, Mississippi State; Iowa falls to Eastern Illinois

Beware: If you are a favorite before the holiday break then watch your back, because the upsets are flying this week so far!

On Monday, undefeated Utah State (#19 in Strength, projected 3-seed) fell to #241 Weber State, 75-72, for their first loss. 

On Tuesday, 11-0 Mississippi State fell to Drake, 58-52, and that's not all. Check out Kenpom.com's top games on Tuesday:

These are the top 12 games on Tuesday: 10 were upsets. Many were expected to be close as you can see, like Virginia-Miami, but Duke was soundly beaten by Wake Forest, and Oregon was a solid favorite over Utah Valley. Even Louisville was the favorite and lost!

But the worst upset so far, maybe the upset of the year? Has to beat Eastern Illinois beating Iowa. The Hawkeyes came in #21 in Strength while Eastern Illinois was #342, making Iowa a 33 point favorite (32 in Pomeroy, 32.5 by the oddsmakers). The Panthers won 92-83, a 40+ point swing.

Iowa was without star Kris Murray, but they beat Southeast Missouri State 106-75 without him a few days ago. They even led at halftime, 45-37! Clearly what happened here is that Iowa didn't take Eastern Illinois seriously—probably after looking at their Pomeroy ranking—and just went through the motions before their Christmas break, which lasts until the 29th. They just wanted to get this game over with and get home before the big national storm/freezeout that's coming starting tonight.

Iowa jumped to an 18-4 lead and that's it, game over, we can relax, right? And though that lead dwindled to 8 by halftime, any halftime lead just causes more complacency. But Eastern Illinois, despite being ranked so low, revealed an insane bench that outscored Iowa's bench 54-10 and shot 73% from the floor. As a team they shot 72% in the 2nd half.

The win by Eastern Illinois is listed as the biggest upset of the year on Kenpom; Iowa lost as a 99.8% favorite. It's tied for the biggest upset since Pomeroy has ranked upsets in 2011, tied with Stephen F Austin beating Duke in overtime on Nov. 26, 2019.

The Panthers now have four wins on the year:

• St. Mary of the Woods - the "Pomeroys", an NAIA team, lost 102-40
• Blackburn - the Beavers lost 93-43; they are an NCAA Division III team
• IUPUI - or, Indiana University/Purdue University Indianapolis, lost 70-59. The Jaguars are almost dead last in Strength, #362 of 363 D-I teams
• Iowa

It's like Sesame Street said: one of these things is not like the other.

In Pomeroy Iowa fell from #21 to #38 as a result, while Eastern Illinois jumped from #356 to #348 (I'd be a bit disappointed at that). It looks like Iowa will fall to about #45 in Strength and the Panthers will leap from #342 to #312. The biggest effect will be seen in our Success ratings, which rank without considering the score; Iowa will drop around 100 spots, from #68 to #168 after the bad loss. Eastern Illinois might jump from their present #348 to around #312, pretty much what they did in Strength.

Every coach in the country that is playing a game—against any level of opponent—before Christmas should be pointing to the Iowa loss and saying, "Yes, it could happen to us, too, if we don't take this team seriously!"

2023 week 6 Dance Chance update: Alabama off 1-line, Houston back in

Summary of changes to Dance Chance during week of 12/11 to 12/18 and game previews for week of 12/19:

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
  1. Purdue                   11-0   29-2    B10    89.6   +2.5    1    1
  2. Connecticut              12-0   31-0    BE     89.3   +1.8    1    1
  3. Arizona                  10-1   29-2    P12    88.9   +2.1    1    1
  4. Houston                  11-1   30-1    Amer   88.5   +2.9    1    2

Not that much change to the 1-line, though Purdue has taken over the overall top seed from UConn. Strange that 29-2 Purdue would rank ahead of a 31-0 UConn, but the Big East is not looking that strong so the Huskies don't end up with a lot of big wins. And one of those big wins is Alabama, who just lost to Gonzaga—one of Purdue's big wins. In reality, a 31-0 UConn would be the overall top seed, but only because their name is UConn. Wichita State wasn't the overall top seed at 34-0 in 2014, and if it were say, Creighton rather than UConn with the same schedule? Probably not the overall #1. 

UConn and Purdue didn't do much last week but Arizona earned their keep with a 75-70 win over Tennessee. And Houston's win over Virginia on the road put the Cougars back to a 1-seed. Houston still has some good tests in the American but the toughest is behind them. Their wins over Virginia and St. Mary's might remain their best of the season, their loss to Alabama could remain their only one, but it's a long conference season.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
  5. Texas                     9-1   28-3    B12    88.1   +2.9    2    2
  6. UCLA                     10-2   28-3    P12    87.8   +1.7    2    2
  7. Baylor                    8-2   27-4    B12    87.4   +2.9    2    3
  8. Gonzaga                   9-3   28-3    WCC    87.0   +5.1    2    4
  9. Utah St.                  9-0   28-1    MWC    86.7   +1.7    3    2
 10. Virginia                  8-1   27-2    ACC    86.3   +2.8    3    3
 11. Alabama                   9-2   27-4    SEC    85.9   -0.5    3    1
 12. Tennessee                 9-2   28-3    SEC    85.6   +1.7    3    3

Here's what happened to former 1-seed Alabama—they fell all the way to a 3-seed after their 100-90 loss to Gonzaga. Playing essentially at home they were favored to win, so their projected record suffers. Gonzaga gains a big win allowing the Zags jump from last week's 4-seed to a 2-seed. Baylor and Utah State both won games this week but Baylor moved up a seed line, displacing (along with Gonzaga) the Aggies to a 3-seed. Despite the Mountain West's quality this season—we have five teams in the seedings at this point—even a 28-1 record might not get a 2-seed. It depends on how strong Utah State looks, too, and at this point though they project to 28-1 game by game, there's a lot of uncertainty there.

While UCLA had a big win over Kentucky, and Virginia and Tennessee both lost, those results were all expected and didn't affect things very much. Of all the teams in the top lines, the only slightly interesting game this week is Virginia traveling to face Miami FL in an ACC clash. The Cavaliers look like the ACC favorite at this point, while the Big Twelve is looking like a fierce battle between Texas, Baylor, and Kansas.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
 13. Duke                     10-2   28-3    ACC    85.2   +2.5    4    4
 14. Indiana                   8-3   25-6    B10    84.8   +0.6    4    3
 15. Kentucky                  7-3   27-4    SEC    84.4   +1.4    4    4
 16. Illinois                  8-3   24-7    B10    84.1   +1.7    4    4
 17. Kansas                   10-1   25-6    B12    83.7   +3.2    5    5
 18. Florida Atlantic         10-1   29-2    CUSA   83.3   +2.5    5    5
 19. Charleston               11-1   30-1    CAA    83.0   +7.0    5    7
 20. Ohio St.                  7-3   22-9    B10    82.6   +1.0    5    5
 21. San Diego St.             8-3   24-6    MWC    82.2   +1.0    6    5
 22. UAB                       9-2   28-3    CUSA   81.9   +1.7    6    6
 23. James Madison             9-3   28-3    SB     81.5   +2.1    6    6
 24. New Mexico               11-0   26-4    MWC    81.1   +1.4    6    6

The main story on the 4-line is Indiana's drop from a 3-seed. Though the Hoosiers were projected to lose to Kansas on the road, it was supposed to be closer to a 1-point loss than a 22-point loss. The Jayhawks didn't quite move up however, remaining a 5-seed but moving to the top of that line. Nor did Kentucky drop for their expected UCLA loss. Illinois faces 10-1 Missouri this week in St. Louis; the Tigers are only projected to be about .500 this year and a win over the 4-seed Illini would help change that.  

Charleston is the big mover here, up 2 seeds from 7 to 5. The Cougars are now priced to perfection at 30-1 in a pretty easy Colonial Athletic where they still have some razor-thin edges over the likes of Wilmington and Towson. Ohio State holds their 5-seed despite the overtime loss to North Carolina, but San Diego State doesn't hold theirs in an idle week! The 6-line is chock full of mid-majors—including undefeated New Mexico—and in the pre-Christmas week nobody plays anything but cupcakes. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
 25. North Carolina            8-4   24-7    ACC    80.7   +6.2    7    7
 26. Kent St.                  8-3   27-3    MAC    79.3   +6.0    7    8
 27. Iowa                      8-3   23-8    B10    77.9   -1.1    7    6
 28. Sam Houston St.           9-2   28-3    WAC    76.5   -2.2    7    7
 29. West Virginia             9-2   22-9    B12    75.1   +5.9    8    8
 30. Rutgers                   7-4   21-10   B10    73.7  +24.5    8   12
 31. Saint Mary's              9-4   24-6    WCC    72.3   -4.9    8    7
 32. Arkansas                 10-1   23-8    SEC    70.9   +0.3    8    8
 33. Arizona St.              11-1   24-7    P12    69.5  +19.0    9   12
 34. Oral Roberts              9-3   27-3    Sum    68.1   +8.2    9   10
 35. Marquette                 9-3   23-8    BE     66.7  +21.5    9   13
 36. Maryland                  8-3   21-10   B10    65.3   -2.6    9    9

A trio of big movers in the 7-9 range. First Rutgers is up from a 12-seed to an 8-seed after beating Wake Forest on Saturday, but it's not that particular win it's the renewed faith in the Scarlet Knights' strength after the 81-57 thrashing they delivered that moves them off the bubble, with 10 expected losses now instead of 12. Arizona State is 11-1 and is finally convincing our algorithm they're for real; the Creighton win last week helped. And Marquette also jumps off the bubble to a 9-seed. The Golden Eagles are soaring on our Markov Chain ranking where they're at #5; they're not quite 2-seed material here yet but they also got a win over Creighton (the Jays are hurting yo) and are the 2nd highest ranked Big East team now, making their conference schedule look a lot easier. They face Providence this week in Big East action.

After their overtime miracle vs. Ohio State, North Carolina will face Michigan this week. And new 9-seed Oral Roberts hosts both South Dakota and South Dakota State.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
 37. Penn St.                  8-3   20-11   B10    63.9   +8.0   10   11
 38. Utah                      9-3   22-9    P12    62.6   -4.0   10    9
 39. Xavier                    9-3   24-7    BE     61.2  -10.8   10    8
 40. Colorado                  7-5   18-13   P12    59.8   -1.5   10   10
 41. Boise St.                10-2   23-8    MWC    58.4  +13.7   11   13
 42. Iona                      7-3   26-3    MAAC   57.0   -8.3   11    9
 43. Memphis                   9-3   26-5    Amer   55.6   -3.0   11   10
 44. Virginia Tech            11-1   25-6    ACC    54.2   +7.6   11   13
 45. Yale                      9-3   24-3    Ivy    52.8   -9.8   12   10
 46. Mississippi St.          11-0   24-7    SEC    51.4   -1.8   12   11
 47. Auburn                    9-2   23-8    SEC    50.0  -13.9   12    9
 48. Creighton                 6-6   22-9    BE     48.6   -3.3   12   12

Auburn's fall from a 9-seed to a 12-seed is the big news here; it happened courtesy of a 74-71 upset by USC. The Tigers host Washington on Wednesday to try to regroup. Other that dropped include Iona who lost to New Mexico, dropping them 2 seeds despite the loss being expected (and expected to be their last one playing in the MAAC). Xavier won twice last week but also fell 2 seeds (they now lose to Marquette at least once); they face Seton Hall Tuesday. Yale also fell two seeds despite a win. Whaddya gonna do?

10-seed Utah lost to BYU 75-66 on the road, an expected loss but the Utes drop a seed; they face 9-1 TCU on Wednesday. A few teams did move up, including Boise State and Virginia Tech, both up from 13s to 11s. 

Mississippi State didn't lose but it was really close. The undefeated Bulldogs survived a last-second steal and 3-point attempt by lowly Nicholls State. It didn't affect their win-loss outlook but it sure didn't make believers out of anyone, and they remain essentially on the bubble. Meanwhile Creighton lost twice and is 6-6 after 6 losses in a row but still stays in the seeding, as they remain strong in our power rating. The losses should mostly be over for the Bluejays unless they have confidence issues now. They'll try to break their losing streak against Butler on Thursday and/or DePaul on Sunday, both at home; 5 of their 6 losses were on the road or neutral courts.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
 49. Saint Louis               8-4   26-5    A10    47.2   -0.7   13   12
 50. UC Irvine                 7-4   28-4    BW     45.8  -11.4   13   11
 51. Southern Miss            11-1   26-5    SB     45.4  +20.7   13     
 52. Iowa St.                  9-2   18-13   B12    44.0   +4.6   13p  14p
 53. Nevada                    9-3   21-10   MWC    42.6   -0.8   13p  13
 54. Marshall                 10-2   27-4    SB     41.2   -0.9   14p  14p
 55. Oregon                    7-5   18-13   P12    39.8   +4.4   14p    
 56. Wisconsin                 9-2   18-13   B10    38.4   +7.0        
 57. Texas Tech                8-2   18-13   B12    37.0   +0.3        
 58. UNLV                     10-1   22-8    MWC    35.6   -5.1        14p
 59. N.C. State               10-3   22-9    ACC    34.2   +6.8        
 60. Michigan St.              7-4   14-17   B10    32.8   -5.2        14p

The bubble: New to the seedings this week is Southern Miss, now 11-1 and projected at 26-5, looking to make the Sun Belt a 2-bid league (unless Marshall can make it a 3-bid league). It's going to be close but the Golden Eagles can help themselves a lot by getting an upset win over fellow bubble mate UNLV on Thursday. The Rebels dropped into the First Four Out after a home loss to San Francisco on Saturday.

Also entering on the very tip of the Play-in games is Oregon, one of several Major conference teams (along with Wisconsin and Texas Tech) hoping that 18-13 means a bid. It could, but it would depend on the conference tournament results to separate who's in and who is out. 

North Carolina State holds the last spot in the First Four Out, still looking in despite a 22-9 projection. The Dance Chance doesn't think much of the ACC this year, and one reason is NC State's next opponent, 2-9 Louisville. That's a must-win game for the Wolfpack as a loss to the Cardinals will be very damaging to whoever they upset. Meanwhile Michigan State falls off the seed line with a 14-17 projection. That they're still anywhere near with that record shows how differently our algorithm views the Big Ten compared to the ACC.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/11)
 65. Bradley                   7-4   24-7    MVC    25.8   +5.1   14   14
 71. Jacksonville              6-3   24-5    ASun   17.5   -4.6   14   14
 75. UMass Lowell             11-2   28-3    AE     11.9  -42.7   14   11
 76. Furman                    8-4   27-4    SC     10.5   -3.5   15   15
 82. Youngstown St.            8-4   27-4    Horz    9.0   +1.7   15   15
106. Montana St.               7-5   24-7    BSky    4.4   +0.2   15   15
139. Colgate                   6-6   24-7    Pat     3.6   -0.4   15   15
148. Southern                  4-8   23-8    SWAC    3.3   -0.5   16   16
153. High Point                8-3   21-9    BSth    3.2   -0.2   16   16p
157. Texas A&M Corpus Chris    6-5   25-6    Slnd    3.1   -0.6   16p  16
163. SIU Edwardsville          8-4   24-7    OVC     2.9   -0.5   16p  16p
166. North Carolina Central    5-7   19-8    MEAC    2.9   +0.2   16p    
174. Norfolk St.               9-4   23-7    MEAC    2.7   -0.6        16p
223. Wagner                    5-4   23-4    NEC     1.4   -0.8   16p  16p

One bid-bonanza: UMass Lowell was riding high last week as an 11-seed, looking like a team that could get an at-large if they biffed their conference tournament. Well no longer. We misspoke last week when we said they were expected to lose to Rhode Island last week, they were favored but ended up losing in overtime, and their downgrade from 29-2 to 28-3 is all it takes when you play an America East schedule. 

Nothing much else happens here except North Carolina Central narrowly takes over as the auto-bid favorite from the MEAC from Norfolk State. The Eagles accomplished this despite two losses last week; one to LSU (67-57) and one to Gardner-Webb (72-70), both on the road. Our power rating expected a 15 point loss and a 5-point loss, so the net result was a bump up for NC Central. Now 5-7, they're projected to go 14-1 from here on out, splitting two games with 9-4 Norfolk. It's gonna be quite a battle for the MEAC so stay tuned!

2022-2023 Week 5 Recap: Three new 1-seeds

After a busy week we have three new 1-seeds! Here's a rundown of the latest Dance Chance and the recap of games from 12/04 to 12/11/2022:

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
  1. Connecticut              11-0   31-0    BE     87.5   +2.9    1    1
  2. Purdue                   10-0   29-2    B10    87.1   +5.5    1    3
  3. Arizona                   8-1   29-2    P12    86.8   +3.3    1    2
  4. Alabama                   8-1   28-3    SEC    86.4   +7.0    1    5

UConn is the only constant in the top line, and the Huskies take over as the overall 1-seed. Undefeated Purdue needed overtime to stay that way but the Boilermakers topped Nebraska to go 10-0, but they probably have Arizona to thank for their #1 seed as the Wildcats knocked Indiana down enough that Purdue is now favored over the Hoosiers. So Arizona's 89-75 win in Las Vegas earned two #1 seeds. And of course Alabama came back to beat Houston 71-65 on the road and jumps all the way from a 5-seed to the top line.

Now the Huskies are the only team "expected" to be undefeated, but really now that Houston's out of the no-loss group it doesn't look like it's going to happen. UConn's Big East schedule is too much, and none of the other lossless teams look good enough or also have too hard of a schedule, like Purdue. Connecticut and Purdue have pretty relaxing weeks while Arizona faces Tennessee on Saturday and Alabama plays both Memphis and Gonzaga this week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
  5. UCLA                      8-2   28-3    P12    86.0   +2.9    2    2
  6. Houston                   9-1   30-1    Amer   85.7   +0.7    2    1
  7. Texas                     7-1   28-3    B12    85.3   +1.1    2    1
  8. Utah St.                  8-0   28-1    MWC    84.9   +5.1    2    4
  9. Baylor                    7-2   27-4    B12    84.6   +0.7    3    2
 10. Indiana                   8-2   26-5    B10    84.2   -1.1    3    1
 11. Tennessee                 9-1   28-3    SEC    83.8   +1.1    3    2
 12. Virginia                  8-0   27-2    ACC    83.4   +2.2    3    3

Former 1-seeds: Houston drops one line for one loss, as their schedule doesn't have a lot of oomph. The Cougars play 3-seed Virginia on Saturday, their last big test before AAC conference play. Texas fell to Illinois in overtime in New York and also dropped a seed line. And Indiana fell all the way to a 3-seed from the very top spot after their 2nd loss downgraded them from 30-1 to 26-5 for the year, projected. The Hoosiers play Kansas on Saturday, a game they're now supposed to lose, so it's an opportunity for them to move back up.

The big surprise on the 2-line is Utah State, moving up from a 4-seed and now the top team in the Mountain West. The Aggies are unbeaten as yet and favored in all but one game! That's very little room for error to keep their 2-seed, they'll need lots of luck. Baylor and Tennessee both drop down to the 3-line; Baylor didn't play and Tennessee beat Maryland by 3 points...the high seeds are very unforgiving. But the Vols face 1-seed Arizona Saturday as mentioned so that's a chance for them to re-impress our algorithm.

Also on Saturday, top 2-seed UCLA takes on top 4-seed Kentucky, and speaking of the 4-seeds:

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
 13. Kentucky                  7-2   27-4    SEC    83.1   +2.2    4    4
 14. Duke                     10-2   28-3    ACC    82.7   +4.0    4    5
 15. Illinois                  7-3   24-7    B10    82.3   +4.8    4    6
 16. Gonzaga                   7-3   27-4    WCC    82.0    0.0    4    3
 17. Ohio St.                  7-2   24-7    B10    81.6   +1.1    5    4
 18. San Diego St.             7-3   25-5    MWC    81.2   -1.1    5    3
 19. Florida Atlantic          8-1   29-2    CUSA   80.9   +0.7    5    4
 20. Kansas                    9-1   25-6    B12    80.5   +7.9    5    7

Duke makes its way in to the 4-line after beating former 5-seed Iowa, a slight upset in our book. Illinois of course beat Texas so they're up 2 seeds despite the subsequent loss to Penn State. And Gonzaga moves down another seed line after starting the pre-season a 1-seed. They didn't lose again, they're just getting re-evaluated as their pre-season shine wears off; the projection's rating system is now just 17% pre-season bias, so the Zags have settled to about where they belong. They face 1-seed Alabama on Saturday and it's the last game they're supposed to lose, thus it's their last chance to move up instead of down. 

San Diego State was also a pre-season 1-seed mostly due to an easier schedule, but that pre-season schedule hid two very tough tournament losses, and on Saturday the Aztecs fell to St. Mary's 68-61 in Phoenix. They fall from a 3- to a 5- as Kansas moves up from a 7-seed after crushing Missouri 95-67 on the road. The Jayhawks were getting a bit underrated here that's for sure. They face Indiana on Saturday and are now the favorite.

5-seed Ohio State meets North Carolina, now a 7-seed, in New York on Saturday, too.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
 21. UAB                       7-2   28-3    CUSA   80.1   +1.8    6    5
 22. New Mexico                9-0   25-4    MWC    79.8   +9.7    6    8
 23. James Madison             8-3   28-3    SB     79.4   +2.2    6    6
 24. Iowa                      7-3   24-7    B10    79.0    0.0    6    5
 25. Sam Houston St.           7-2   28-3    WAC    78.6   +9.9    7    8
 26. Saint Mary's              8-3   25-5    WCC    77.3  +13.6    7    9
 27. Charleston               10-1   29-2    CAA    75.9   -0.6    7    7
 28. North Carolina            6-4   23-8    ACC    74.6   -2.3    7    6
 29. Kent St.                  7-3   26-4    MAC    73.2   +7.0    8    9
 30. Xavier                    7-3   25-6    BE     71.9   +7.0    8    9
 31. Arkansas                  9-1   23-8    SEC    70.6   -4.6    8    7
 32. West Virginia             8-2   21-10   B12    69.2  +25.2    8   13p

New Mexico is the star of the 6-line, up from 8, as the Lobos are 9-0 and look to have a pretty good record in the Mountain West. Their previous win over St. Mary's helped, too, as the Gaels just beat SDSU and rise from a 9 to a 7-seed. West Virginia takes a huge jump off the bubble as the Mountaineers move from a 13-seed play-in team to an 8-seed after beat UAB, who falls from a 5 to a 6. West Virginia is our highest-ranked team that is expected to have a double-digit loss count, something hard to avoid playing in the Big Twelve.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
 33. Maryland                  8-2   20-11   B10    67.9   +6.8    9   10
 34. Utah                      8-2   22-9    P12    66.6  +20.7    9   13
 35. Iona                      6-2   26-3    MAAC   65.2   +2.8    9    9
 36. Auburn                    8-1   24-7    SEC    63.9  -14.0    9    6
 37. Yale                      8-3   24-3    Ivy    62.6  +23.6   10   14
 38. Colorado                  5-5   18-13   P12    61.2   +2.6   10   10
 39. Oral Roberts              7-3   27-3    Sum    59.9  +12.8   10   12
 40. Memphis                   8-2   26-5    Amer   58.6   +2.5   10   11
 41. UC Irvine                 7-3   29-3    BW     57.2  +20.9   11   14
 42. Penn St.                  7-3   19-12   B10    55.9  +15.7   11   13p
 43. UMass Lowell             11-1   29-2    AE     54.6  +49.9   11     
 44. Mississippi St.           9-0   24-7    SEC    53.2   -6.6   11   10

Utah leaps to a 9-seed from a 13 on the strength of a 99-58 win over Jacksonville that convinced our power rating that the Utes can go 22-9 instead of 21-10 and that's all it took (the boost in Strength helps, too). Going the opposite direction was formerly undefeated Auburn who lost to Memphis  82-73 in Atlanta.

Yale lost twice but moved up from a 14-seed to a 10-seed. What? The Bulldogs fell to Butler and Kentucky both as expected, but the UK loss was only 10 points instead of the expected 20. It made our power rating much more confident that Yale can achieve the 24-3 record we project for them—which means they can't lose a game in the (admittedly weak) Ivy League.  

Penn State's move up to an 11-seed is due to their upset win at Illinois; their previous game, a home loss to Michigan State, was unexpected as well but the trade worked out in their favor. UC Irvine, the designated Big West champ, moves into the seed line area where they wouldn't need an auto-big. The Anteaters beat South Dakota 83-71, and it was enough to turn two future 1-point losses their way. They better not count on that at-large bid though come conference tournament time. And UMass Lowell is a big surprise at 11-1, taking over the top spot in the America East. The River Hawks were projected to have 5 losses last week; they took care of one of those by beating UMass and now are a haughty 29-2. Their only expected loss from here on out is their next game against Rhode Island on Tuesday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
 45. Creighton                 6-4   23-8    BE     51.9  -15.6   12    8
 46. Arizona St.               9-1   22-9    P12    50.6   -4.2   12   11
 47. Rutgers                   6-4   19-12   B10    49.2  -22.1   12    8
 48. Saint Louis               7-4   26-5    A10    47.9  -26.0   12    7
 49. Virginia Tech            10-1   25-6    ACC    46.6  +15.3   13     
 50. Marquette                 8-3   20-11   BE     45.2  +15.2   13     
 51. Boise St.                 8-2   22-9    MWC    44.7   -6.2   13   12
 52. Nevada                    8-3   21-10   MWC    43.4   -8.8   13   11

Creighton falls from an 8-seed to a 12-seed after losing to BYU, their 4th loss in a row. The Bluejays will try to recover tonight (Monday night) against fellow 12-seed Arizona State in Las Vegas. Also dropping from 8 is Rutgers, who fell to Ohio State and Seton Hall last week, while St. Louis fell from a 7-seed after losing to Iona and Boise State. The 12-line is not a happy place right now.

The 13-line is luckier though. Virginia Tech and Marquette join the seedings as the Hokies beat Dayton and Oklahoma State to go 10-1, and the Golden Eagles topped Notre Dame 79-64 on Sunday. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
 53. Marshall                  9-1   28-3    SB     42.0  +31.6   14p    
 54. UNLV                     10-0   23-7    MWC    40.7  -12.8   14p  11
 55. Iowa St.                  8-2   18-13   B12    39.4   -3.4   14p  13p
 56. Michigan St.              7-4   15-16   B10    38.0   +2.9   14p    
 57. Texas Tech                6-2   19-12   B12    36.7  -11.7        12
 58. Oregon                    5-5   18-13   P12    35.4  +13.0        
 59. Miami FL                 10-1   24-7    ACC    34.0  +10.4        
 60. Oklahoma St.              6-4   15-16   B12    32.7   +6.5        

The dreaded bubble: This week the seedings dip all the way to the top of the 14-line, with Marshall and Michigan State joining (or re-joining, as the case may be) while UNLV drops from the 11-line. The Thundering Herd won their 9th straight after an inexplicable loss to Queens in their opener. The Spartans beat Penn State and Brown and although they project to 15-16, they're good enough that they have the potential to do quite a bit better, that's why they just barely hang on to the bottom of the bubble. The Runnin' Rebels are 10-0, one of very few undefeated teams left in the country (7 to be exact).

Texas Tech falls from a 12-seed to the First Four Out as their win over lowly Nicholls State (78-71) was weak. Oregon made a sizable move by beating Nevada 78-65, while Miami beat Cornell and NC State. The Hurricanes are the opposite of Michigan State—their 24-7 projected record is good enough to be in for sure in the ACC, but they aren't considered good enough to make it happen. Oklahoma State is another team in a too-tough conference that will have a hard time staying above water, and 13-seed Virginia Tech handed them their 4th loss. Their win over 7-seed Sam Houston State offset that, though.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(12/04)
 68. Jacksonville              5-3   24-5    ASun   22.0   -5.4   14   14
 69. Bradley                   7-3   23-8    MVC    20.7  -20.8   14   13p
 72. Towson                    8-3   25-6    CAA    16.7  -40.6        10
 74. Furman                    7-3   27-4    SC     14.0  -19.8   15   14
 75. Southern Illinois         6-4   24-8    MVC    12.7  -37.0        12
 91. Youngstown St.            7-4   26-5    Horz    7.4   -0.8   15   15
100. Bryant                    8-3   24-5    AE      5.0   +0.2        15
103. VCU                       6-4   23-8    A10     4.9  -39.7        13
129. Montana St.               6-5   23-7    BSky    4.2   +0.3   15   16p
139. Colgate                   6-6   24-7    Pat     3.9   -0.5   15   15
144. Southern                  4-5   23-8    SWAC    3.8   -0.4   16   16
147. Texas A&M Corpus Chris    5-4   25-6    Slnd    3.7   -0.6   16   15
158. High Point                8-2   21-9    BSth    3.5   -0.6   16p    
160. SIU Edwardsville          7-4   24-7    OVC     3.4   -0.7   16p  16p
161. Longwood                  5-5   22-9    BSth    3.4   -0.9        16
166. Norfolk St.               6-4   24-6    MEAC    3.2   -0.1   16p  16p
208. Wagner                    4-4   23-4    NEC     2.2   -0.4   16p  16p

The rest of the field: Towson falls out of the seedings altogether from a 10-seed last week; they lost to both Clemson and Navy last week (they were supposed to beat the Midshipmen). So, too, does Southern Illinois as the Salukis lost to Indiana State at home. 

Bryant had to give up the auto-bid for the America East to surging 11-seed UMass-Lowell, and VCU lost to Jacksonville at home and fell from a 10-seed wayyyy down to #103, going from 45% odds to 5%. Seems kinda harsh, but...

And last but not least (pretty close to least though), High Point stole Longwood's 16-seed auto-bid in the Big South. The two are so close (#158 and #161) that it could flip back next week. Stay tuned, I know you're excited about that one.

NET rating is startlingly similar to SportsRatings Combined ratings (or, explaining Sam Houston State)

The NET ratings just came out and I must say, now that they tweaked the formula a few years ago to go from an opaque, 5-component ranking to use just 2 components, it really looks like they've replicated a lot of our Combined Rating. That rating, which as the name suggests combines our Strength and Success ratings into a composite, currently uses a healthy dose of pre-season information on the Strength side but when I run it without pre-season bias, the teams match up pretty well with the NET. 

What I'm saying is, clearly the NET is using a similar philosophy now: use a true power rating (like Strength) that is based on point margins, or per-possession stats rated by strength of opposition, and combine that with a points-free Win vs. Loss system that heavily uses home/away court. In their own words:

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played.

Here's how it looks for the season so far:

NCAA NET top 25, 12/5/2022

 1. Houston 
 2. UConn 
 3. Purdue
 4. Tennessee 
 5. Mississippi St. 
 6. Maryland 
 7. Sam Houston 
 8. Alabama 
 9. Virginia 
10. Indiana 
11. West Virginia 
12. Texas 
13. Illinois 
14. UCLA
15. Utah St. 
16. Saint Mary's 
17. Duke
18. Kansas
19. Utah
20. Iowa
21. Auburn
22. Iowa St.
23. Fla. Atlantic
24. Kent St.
25. Arkansas

You can see the influence of a Strength, or Sagarin Predictor, or probably closest, a Kenpom type of system in use, in that the teams that rate high in those rate high in NET. The difference being that Sagarin and Kenpom have pre-season bias to smooth out the early weirdness; the NET doesn't.

You can also see a heavy influence of a wins-only system, and in particular one that really gives a heavy advantage to teams that win on the road or on neutral courts. Early in the season, road wins are at a premium. 95% of early games are overmatched opponents traveling to get beaten by a much better foe. That means that the home team wins almost all the time. Not only conference play do road wins start to add up. So early on, if you have road wins, you have everything.

This is why Sam Houston State is at #7, for example. The Bearkats have four D-I wins and a loss. Two of the wins are on the road and the other two are on neutral courts. It doesn't matter all that much who they beat at this point, given the lack of pre-season bias, just getting road wins is a big deal. But they happened to be Oklahoma and Utah that they beat on the road, which by this point is very impressive. Their one loss is on the road too, which mitigates it since losing on the road is what 95% of teams are doing right now.

Here is our Combined Power Rating for 12/5/2022, without any pre-season bias:

num  Team                    record    rating   NET
1.  Connecticut                9-0     44.10     2
2.  Purdue                     8-0     40.41     3
3.  Houston                    8-0     40.19     1
4.  Maryland                   8-0     35.89     6
5.  Tennessee                  7-1     31.38     4
6.  Utah St.                   7-0     31.12    15
7.  West Virginia              6-2     30.25    11
8.  Mississippi St.            8-0     30.17     5
9.  Virginia                   7-0     30.02     9
10. Sam Houston St.            7-1     30.01     7
11. Texas                      6-0     29.91    12
12. Alabama                    7-1     29.81     8
13. Indiana                    7-1     28.72    10
14. Auburn                     8-0     27.16    21
15. UCLA                       7-2     26.97    14
16. Arizona                    7-1     26.37    26
17. New Mexico                 7-0     26.07    27
18. Arizona St.                8-1     25.83    35
19. Illinois                   6-2     25.82    13
20. Kansas                     8-1     25.46    18
21. Iowa                       6-1     24.82    20
22. Gonzaga                    5-3     24.22    29
23. Arkansas                   7-1     24.13    25
24. Kent St.                   6-2     23.72    24
25. Rutgers                    6-2     23.71    30

Lots of similarity there, more than you'll see with other power ratings around the web. Both for the fact that almost everyone "smooths" with pre-season bias for the first few months, and that most are single-purpose, like either Strength or Success, or Kenpom, either to predict future games OR to "reward" accomplishments, but not to do both at the same time. That's what the NET tries to do, as well as our Combined rankings.

The other similarity is early-season stress on winning road games, which occurs naturally in ours since road wins are very valuable (due to rarity) early on. This might seem overvalued at the time, but the purpose of the NET isn't to measure who is best in December but to work in mid-March.

Another team that's a good example is Florida Atlantic, #23 in NET and #27 in "unbiased" Combined ratings. The Owls have three road wins, including one at Florida, and their only loss is a road loss.

Perhaps the best example of similarity? Look at Louisville. The Cardinals are 0-8 right now but few ratings would put them in the bottom three in the nation, right? Kenpom for example has them #206.

But from a wins and losses-only perspective, Louisville is among the very worst teams. Three of their losses are by a single point—but that doesn't matter in a wins vs. losses system. What does matter is how many home losses you have. And right now Louisville has FIVE home losses! And three more neutral-court losses. That makes the Cardinals the worst team in the nation in our Success rankings. Combine that with unbiased Strength (which has them #336) and you get this:

361. Hartford                  4-7     -26.07
362. Louisville                0-8     -27.63
363. Houston Christian         2-7     -30.82

Compare that to the bottom three in NET:

361  Louisville
362  Houston Christian
363  Hartford

Wow. That's some pretty close agreement. But we were here first, like over 15 years ago. Should have asked us back then and we could have replaced that stupid RPI a lot sooner.

2022-2023 Week 4 Recap: UConn up to a 1-seed, Zags dragged down to 3-seed

After all the tournament action two weeks ago, last week's action was more few and far between, but there were still several big games and some big moves in our NCAA seeding projection. Here's a rundown of the moves from Nov. 27 to Dec. 4 and some of the notable upcoming games for this week, especially those on Saturday the 10th.

Dance Chance rankings for December 5, 2022

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
  1. Indiana                   7-1   30-1    B10    85.3   +2.3    1    1
  2. Houston                   8-0   31-0    Amer   84.9   +2.3    1    1
  3. Connecticut               9-0   31-0    BE     84.6   +4.8    1    3
  4. Texas                     6-0   29-2    B12    84.2   +1.9    1    1
  5. Baylor                    6-2   28-3    B12    83.8   +2.6    2    2
  6. Arizona                   7-1   28-3    P12    83.5   +1.9    2    2
  7. UCLA                      7-2   28-3    P12    83.1   +4.8    2    4
  8. Tennessee                 7-1   28-3    SEC    82.7   +5.2    2    4

Indiana rather surprisingly retains not only a 1-seed but also the overall top seed despite their 63-48 loss to Rutgers on Saturday, which was a big letdown following their 77-65 win over North Carolina last Wednesday. The Hoosiers still rank high enough to be favored the rest of the way and at 30-1 they still outrank 31-0 Houston, who rises to the top of our Strength ratings (as well as hitting #1 in Pomeroy) after edging St. Mary's on Saturday. Joining the 1-line is UConn, who is also favored to be "undefeated" on a strict game-by-game basis. The Huskies beat Oklahoma State to start 9-0. Texas holds their 1-seed after beating Creighton 72-67; they face Illinois on Tuesday, while Houston takes on Alabama on a loaded Saturday (the 10th) which also sees Indiana host 2-seed Arizona.

Speaking of Arizona, the Wildcats lost at Utah 81-66 but hold their 2-seed; Baylor also suffered a bad loss—96-70 at Marquette—but followed it up with a win over Gonzaga. Two teams leap from 4-seeds to 2-seeds: UCLA won its first 2 Pac-12 games; Tennessee crushed McNeese and Alcorn 76-40 and 94-40 which boosted their outlook from 26-5 to 28-3. The Vols face Maryland next Sunday.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
  9. San Diego St.             6-2   27-3    MWC    82.4   +1.5    3    2
 10. Gonzaga                   5-3   28-3    WCC    82.0   +0.1    3    1
 11. Purdue                    8-0   28-3    B10    81.6   +1.5    3    3
 12. Virginia                  7-0   27-2    ACC    81.3   +1.9    3    3
 13. Kentucky                  6-2   27-4    SEC    80.9   +0.4    4    2
 14. Ohio St.                  6-2   24-7    B10    80.5   +3.7    4    5
 15. Florida Atlantic          7-1   29-2    CUSA   80.2  +14.4    4    8
 16. Utah St.                  7-0   25-4    MWC    79.8  +12.9    4    8

Gonzaga started the year as our #1 team in Strength, expected to have only 1 loss; they've already had three now after falling to Baylor 64-63 in South Dakota. The Zags drop all the way to a projected 3-seed. They're still favored in every subsequent game, mostly because they play in the West Coast Conference, but 28-3 doesn't get you a 1-seed unless you win the big non-conference games. San Diego State also started the year as a 1-seed and are down from a 2- to a 3- after a week where they edged UC Irvine at home 72-69. The Aztecs face St. Mary's on Saturday the 10th.

Kentucky drops a few seeds as their tight game at Michigan negatively affected their outlook, adding a single projected loss; the Wildcats play 2-seed UCLA on Saturday. 4-seed Ohio State, meanwhile, moves up from a 5-seed despite losing to Duke on Wednesday. That loss was already "accounted for" and the Buckeyes managed to improve to a 24-7 projection. They host surging Rutgers on Wednesday.

Huge leaps into the 4-line are taken by Florida Atlantic and Utah State, both mid-majors who were 8-seeds last week. The Owls were projected at 27-4 a week ago but their recent wins—84-59 over South Alabama and 101-73 over Eastern Michigan—lifted their Strength and bumped their outlook to a lofty 29-2. Of course that means they would come crashing back down after any upset loss. The Aggies also lifted their outlook by 2 wins, and their 25-4 projection might be a bit more sustainable. Their 18-point win over San Francisco was the catalyst of their climb.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
 17. Alabama                   7-1   25-6    SEC    79.4   +1.5    5    4
 18. Iowa                      6-1   26-5    B10    79.1   +1.9    5    5
 19. Duke                      8-2   26-5    ACC    78.7   +2.6    5    5
 20. UAB                       7-1   28-3    CUSA   78.3   -0.3    5    4
 21. Auburn                    8-0   27-4    SEC    77.9   -1.1    6    3
 22. Illinois                  6-2   23-8    B10    77.6   +2.6    6    6
 23. James Madison             7-2   28-3    SB     77.2   +1.9    6    6
 24. North Carolina            5-4   24-7    ACC    76.8   +1.1    6    6

Not much action on the 5-line except for Alabama and UAB both slipping there from a 4-seed. The Tide face 1-seed Houston on Saturday as noted before, and the Blazers travel to West Virginia in perhaps the toughest game on their schedule going forward. Meanwhile 5-seeds Iowa and Duke clash on Tuesday in Madison Square Garden. This is actually an opportunity for Duke as we favor the Hawkeyes by a point (Kenpom has Duke by a point, and Vegas has Duke by 3).

The 6-line is even more constant, with three teams remaining there. Auburn slips all the way there from a 3-seed however, though they remain undefeated after beating Colgate 93-66. Blame Tennessee's surge as the Vols are now favored in both their home and away clashes with the Tigers. The rest of the 6-line has a tough road ahead. Illinois, coming off a loss to Maryland, faces Texas and Penn State; James Madison travels to 3-seed Virginia Tuesday; and North Carolina looks to break a 4-game skid against Georgia Tech on Saturday in Chapel Hill. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
 25. Charleston                8-1   29-2    CAA    76.5  +21.7    7   11
 26. Arkansas                  7-1   23-8    SEC    75.2   +2.2    7    7
 27. Saint Louis               7-2   26-5    A10    73.9   -2.6    7    5
 28. Kansas                    8-1   23-8    B12    72.6   +3.3    7    8
 29. Rutgers                   6-2   18-13   B10    71.3  +49.9    8    
 30. New Mexico                7-0   24-5    MWC    70.1  +28.0    8   13p
 31. Sam Houston St.           7-1   26-5    WAC    68.8   +9.1    8   10
 32. Creighton                 6-3   25-6    BE     67.5   -7.1    8    6

Charleston is the big news among the 7-seeds, up from an 11 last week after two strong wins pushed their projection to a tough-to-sustain 29-2. It's hard to find more than one loss on their rest of the Cougars' easy schedule but staying that consistent is very tough. Saint Louis falls from a 5-seed despite two wins, showing you don't even have to lose to drop in our projection! 

Rutgers had last week's biggest win, beating overall top seed Indiana 63-48 and it wasn't close for the last 10 minutes. From nowhere the Scarlet Knights move to an 8-seed and gain nearly 50% in March Madness probability! Undefeated New Mexico makes almost the same leap from the very bubble after upsetting St. Mary's 69-65 on the road. Sam Houston State suffered their first loss, 78-60 to Nevada—but are still projected to be 26-5, and as the pre-season influence (which put the Bearkats at #155 in Strength) continues to diminish, their current Strength rank of #66 pulls them up two rungs from an 8-seed last week. Tuesday brings another of their projected losses—at Oklahoma State—so really it's an opportunity to move up even more. Creighton lost twice more last week to Texas and Nebraska, the latter of which was a surprise and dropped the Jays from a 6-seed. They close out their pre-conference season against BYU and 11-seed Arizona State in Las Vegas.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
 33. Kent St.                  6-2   26-4    MAC    66.2  +26.6    9   13
 34. Xavier                    6-3   25-6    BE     65.0   -6.8    9    7
 35. Saint Mary's              6-3   24-6    WCC    63.7  -10.6    9    7
 36. Iona                      4-2   26-3    MAAC   62.4  +26.4    9   14
 37. Maryland                  8-0   20-11   B10    61.1  +17.8   10   13p
 38. Mississippi St.           8-0   24-7    SEC    59.9   +3.9   10   10
 39. Colorado                  4-5   18-13   P12    58.6  +21.4   10    
 40. Towson                    8-1   27-4    CAA    57.3   +4.9   10   11

The 9 line is occupied by four new teams, either moving up or down. The upwardly mobile are Kent State and Iona, jumping from 13 and 14 seeds. The Golden Flashes beat South Dakota State 83-68 and their 5-point loss at Houston the previous week is looking better and better. If they really want to make a move, they have the chance: they are taking on 3-seed Gonzaga Monday evening. Iona won by 22 and 30 last week and those wins affected their Strength more than most since they had just four games under their belt previously. On the way down are Xavier and St. Mary's. The Musketeers got a solid win over West Virginia while St. Mary's lost to New Mexico and Houston, yet both dropped, the Gaels a bit more percentage-wise though.

Two new teams join the 10-seed line in a significant way. Maryland is 8-0 now after beating 0-9 Louisville and 6-2 Illinois, they're up from the bubble. Colorado is just 4-5 but is projected to be 18-13 or so, which is enough to bring them in from below the bubble despite two losses last week to ASU and Washington. How did this happen? Let's figure it out, because I'm wondering that exact thing. Last week they were projected to be 19-12, lost unexpectedly to ASU, and now are 18-13, yet they make a decent move from the First Four Out to a 10-seed. Clearly someone they beat—or will beat—made a big move that affected the Buffaloes status. It's probably their early win over Tennessee that's working its magic. That huge win is even huger now that the Vols are a 2-seed. Yale also made a decent move up and that helps, too, in fact it looks like every team Colorado played did well last week.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
 41. Memphis                   6-2   24-7    Amer   56.0   -4.8   11    9
 42. Arizona St.               8-1   21-10   P12    54.8  +23.6   11     
 43. UNLV                      8-0   22-8    MWC    53.5   +4.8   11   12
 44. Nevada                    7-2   21-10   MWC    52.2   +5.9   11   12
 45. Boise St.                 6-2   22-9    MWC    50.9  +22.2   12    
 46. Southern Illinois         5-3   25-7    MVC    49.7  -12.4   12    9
 47. Texas Tech                5-2   21-10   B12    48.4  -14.9   12    9
 48. Oral Roberts              6-3   26-4    Sum    47.1  +37.8   12   14

Arizona State's wins over Colorado and Stanford moves the Sun Devils into the seedings at 11. Boise State beat Colorado a few weeks ago and beat Texas A&M last week to enter as a 12-seed; the Broncos take on 7-seed St. Louis on Saturday. Speaking of St. Louis they just beat Southern Illinois 85-72 and the Salukis fall 3 seed-lines from a 9, as does Texas Tech who beat Georgetown yet sees their projection drop from 23-8 to 21-10, clearly due to future opponents gaining strength, not anything they did. 

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
 49. Utah                      7-2   21-10   P12    45.9  +34.7   13     
 50. VCU                       5-3   26-5    A10    44.6  -23.6   13    8
 51. West Virginia             6-2   17-14   B12    44.0  +10.4   13p    
 52. Iowa St.                  7-1   19-12   B12    42.8   -2.3   13p  13
 53. Bradley                   6-3   23-8    MVC    41.5  +35.9   13p    
 54. Penn St.                  6-2   19-12   B10    40.2   -3.7   13p  13p
 55. Yale                      8-1   23-4    Ivy    38.9  +33.3   14   15
 56. Drake                     7-1   24-7    MVC    37.7   -9.9        12
 57. UC Irvine                 6-3   27-5    BW     36.4  -13.6   14   12
 58. Michigan St.              5-4   16-15   B10    35.1  -35.5         7
 59. Furman                    6-2   28-3    SC     33.8  -17.3   14   11
 60. Dayton                    5-4   24-7    A10    32.6  -25.9        10
 61. Virginia Tech             8-1   23-8    ACC    31.3  +12.2        

Now for the bubble. VCU was looking good as an 8-seed last week but is just holding on after losing to Temple. There's plenty of time to recover, though. Jumping into the bubble in a big way are Utah and Bradley, both up around 35% in probability. Utah's rise is clearly due to their 81-66 upset of Arizona, while the Braves won two nondescript games last week but have a big opportunity when they face 7-seed Arkansas on Saturday. 

First Four Out: Drake drops from a 12-seed after losing a close one to Indiana State. Dayton falls a bit further, from a 10-seed, as the Flyers weren't impressive enough against their overmatched foes last week. Virginia Tech moves up into the bubble after upsetting North Carolina, but even that isn't enough to put them above the waterline. And the shocking drop this week is Michigan State, falling out of the seeding from a 7-seed as the Spartans lost twice to unheralded teams: at Notre Dame 70-52, and at home to Northwestern 70-63. Is Sparty tired from their grueling early schedule? We now have them just 16-15 on the year which is a hard sell considering no team with 15 losses has made the cut yet. 

Furman also dropped despite winning twice; the Paladins looked at-large-bidworthy last week but fall to an auto-bid 14-seed as the top-ranked Southern Conference team, suggesting they might not have much leeway even if they are 28-3 before their conference tournament.

Rank Team                     Curr   Proj    Conf  %Odds   %Chg  Seed Prev(11/27)
 62. Marquette                 6-3   18-13   BE     30.0  +24.7        
 63. Grand Canyon              7-2   25-6    WAC    28.7  -24.8        11
 64. Jacksonville              4-2   24-5    ASun   27.5   +2.4   14   14
 72. UC Santa Barbara          5-2   27-4    BW     17.3  -40.0        10
 90. Youngstown St.            6-3   27-4    Horz    8.2   +3.3   15     
 91. Missouri St.              4-4   20-11   MVC     7.9  -56.6         9
 92. Western Kentucky          7-1   24-7    CUSA    7.6  -33.3        13p
122. Bryant                    6-3   23-6    AE      4.7   -7.6   15   14
135. Colgate                   5-5   25-6    Pat     4.4   -0.6   15   15
139. Texas A&M Corpus Chris    4-4   25-6    Slnd    4.3   -0.7   15   15
141. Longwood                  5-4   23-8    BSth    4.3    0.0   16   
144. Southern                  3-5   23-8    SWAC    4.2   -0.1   16   16
148. SIU Edwardsville          7-2   24-7    OVC     4.1   +0.2   16p   
153. Montana St.               4-5   22-8    BSky    3.9   +0.0   16p  16p
167. UNC Asheville             5-3   20-11   BSth    3.6   -0.8        16
168. Tennessee Martin          4-5   24-7    OVC     3.6   -0.5        16p
176. Wright St.                5-4   21-10   Horz    3.4   -1.5        15
178. Norfolk St.               5-4   23-7    MEAC    3.3   -0.8   16p  16p
206. Wagner                    4-3   23-4    NEC     2.6   -0.6   16p  16p

Now the 1-bid leagues and other teams falling off the seeding shelf. 

First, let's take a look at Marquette, who had an up and down week beating 2-seed Baylor 96-70 but then losing in overtime to unseeded Wisconsin. Had the Eagles beaten the Badgers they'd be in the seeding for sure, as they are the "fifth" team out after a near 25% gain. 

The Dropouts: 9-seed Missouri State lost 58-40 to Bradley and is now 4-4, and a 20-11 record on an MVC schedule probably won't get them in. Santa Barbara lost to Duquesne and dropped off the 10-line. And Grand Canyon beat Alcorn State and Wyoming by 8 points each which didn't convince our formula they're destined for an at-large bid. The harsh truth of being a mid-major is coming true for many teams already, including C-USA's Western Kentucky who drops off the end of the bubble as they barely held on to beat Austin Peay by a point. All of these teams have ample time to right the ship and, failing that, to win their conference tournament.

Youngstown State is our new Horizon rep; the Penguins went 1-1 this week losing to Northern Kentucky in double overtime, but also beating last week's Horizon rep Wright State. That always helps. Longwood takes over from UNC Asheville in the Big South; the Lancers were 1-1 and so were the Bulldogs but were apparently more impressive (or less unimpressive) and own the 16-seed for the time being. And SIU Edwardsville is the new team to beat in the Ohio Valley not Tennessee-Martin, who lost to former Big South rep Asheville last weekend and are just 4-5 to Edwardsville's 7-2.