Missouri and LSU both pulled off huge upsets yesterday, with Mizzou impressively topping Kentucky 89-75 and LSU beating Arkansas 60-57.
Both Tiger teams were both 11-1 as of last Sunday. That sounds pretty good, but in our Dance Chance we only gave Missouri a 9.6% chance of making the tournament, and LSU a paltry 3.6% chance! The reason is the same for both teams: neither rated very high in Strength (Missouri was #60, LSU just #124) and both were entering the thick of the SEC season.
Thus far, at 11-1 Missouri's SOS ranked #184 out of 363 teams and we put LSU's at #236. By the end of the season those will be up to #64 and #63, meaning the easy part is done and the tough part ahead for both teams, especially LSU. As a result, we projected Missouri to finish 17-14 and LSU 16-15. After an 11-1 start for each, that's 6-13 and 5-14.
The first step toward that slump for each was supposed to be Wednesday night. Though both Tiger teams were playing at home, we figured Kentucky would beat Mizzou by around 7 points and Arkansas would handle LSU by about the same.
So while neither game is a huge upset, it does show that maybe these teams will rise to the occasion and prove their early records aren't a fluke. Both are now 12-1 and neither is ranked in the AP poll—which goes to show just how much power ratings like Kenpom.com affect voters these days. In the 80s, both these teams would have been ranked in the top 20 for sure, maybe top ten. Instead, Missouri is tied at #31 with 57 AP points, while LSU doesn't have a single vote.
LSU moved up to #109 in Strength with the win, and Missouri is up to #56. In Kenpom LSU only moved up 2 spots, but they were already #78 and moved to #76. Missouri jumped from #43 to #34.
Missouri's start is quite a turnaround from last year's lackluster 12-21 performance. We put the Tigers #81 in our pre-season rankings, which was quite an improvement from last year's finish but they've been a lot more impressive. Missouri had a great "transfer class" which led to our upgrade, but things have worked out even better than we'd foreseen.
LSU's success is both more expected yet more amazing in some ways. Despite finishing 22-12 and making the NCAA tournament, the LSU Tigers faced an NCAA probe that led to the firing of coach Will Wade, and the departure of pretty much every scholarship player on the roster: one went pro, one graduated, and 11 others transferred.
New coach Matt McMahon put together a team of transfer portal players that joined the few who remained in Baton Rouge, and along with 4 traditional recruits from high school formed a team that we generously ranked at #34 pre-season. Only the BPI had the Tigers in the top 25 (at #25)—they've since fallen to #70. So while they haven't exceeded expectations in power ratings, they've certainly done well in the win-loss column. And measured from the point at which they basically had no players, they've made quite a turnaround.
It's still not known whether LSU will be allowed to play in the post-season should they make it, as the NCAA probe continues. Like Missouri they've got a long way to go but Wednesday was a good start for both Tiger teams.
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