The slower week ahead of Christmas day was met with some shocking upsets and careless losses. Though there weren't as many games there was still some movement in our projected seeding via the Dance Chance.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 1. Connecticut 13-0 31-0 BE 91.7 +2.4 1 1 2. Purdue 12-0 29-2 B10 91.3 +1.7 1 1 3. Arizona 12-1 29-2 P12 90.9 +2.0 1 1 4. Tennessee 10-2 29-2 SEC 90.5 +5.0 1 3
First order of business: UConn sneaks past Purdue to take over as the overall #1 seed. Not surprising given the fact that UConn is favored in every game going forward. But can the Huskies really go unbeaten in the Big East? They really do have a small chance, and face hurdles in Villanova and Xavier this week. The Boilermakers have one non-conference game left before they go all-Big-Ten next week. Arizona's non-conference slate is over; they play at Arizona State on Saturday.
New in the top seed line is Tennessee, up from the 3-line primarily because their 42-point win over Austin Peay upgraded their Strength enough to project the Vols at 29-2 instead of 28-3. Even if that comes true, the bottom line is that conference tournaments can determine a lot about the 1-seeds. If these four teams entered their conference tournaments exactly as shown, only UConn would be guaranteed to remain there. Tennessee plays at Mississippi Wednesday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 5. Houston 12-1 30-1 Amer 90.2 +1.7 2 1 6. UCLA 11-2 28-3 P12 89.8 +2.0 2 2 7. Baylor 9-2 26-5 B12 89.4 +2.0 2 2 8. Gonzaga 10-3 28-3 WCC 89.1 +2.0 2 2 9. Texas 10-1 27-4 B12 88.7 +0.5 3 2 10. Alabama 10-2 26-5 SEC 88.3 +2.4 3 3 11. Kansas 11-1 26-5 B12 88.0 +4.2 3 5 12. Virginia 8-2 26-3 ACC 87.6 +1.3 3 3
Houston is the team that slips from a 1-seed, even while projected to win out. That's what happens when you're in a non-Major conference. The Cougars have a much better shot at actually winning out from here than any of the 1-seeds, so they probably end up there if they go 30-1. Their American Athletic season begins on Wednesday at Tulsa.
Texas and Kansas both land on the 3-line this week, with the Longhorns dropping from a 2-seed and the Jayhawks moving up from a 5-seed. It looks like they're related phenomenon, as Kansas gains a win and Texas loses one—Kansas is now favored against Texas in one of their two future clashes. Strange, because Texas' 100-72 win over Louisiana was stronger than KU's 68-54 win over Yale. But the bottom line is that these teams are very close in ratings and split the home/away, which is probably accurate. Both dive into the Big Twelve season this week.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 13. Indiana 10-3 24-7 B10 87.2 +2.4 4 4 14. Duke 10-3 26-5 ACC 86.8 +1.7 4 4 15. Charleston 12-1 30-1 CAA 86.5 +3.5 4 5 16. Florida Atlantic 11-1 29-2 CUSA 86.1 +2.8 4 5 17. Illinois 8-4 23-8 B10 85.7 +1.6 5 4 18. North Carolina 9-4 24-7 ACC 85.4 +4.6 5 7 19. Arkansas 11-1 25-6 SEC 85.0 +14.1 5 8 20. Kentucky 8-3 25-6 SEC 84.6 +0.2 5 4 21. Ohio St. 8-3 22-9 B10 84.2 +1.6 6 5 22. UAB 10-2 28-3 CUSA 83.9 +2.0 6 6 23. Utah St. 11-2 28-3 MWC 83.5 -3.2 6 3 24. Sam Houston St. 10-2 28-2 WAC 83.1 +6.6 6 7
Duke got hit by one of last week's upsets (to Wake Forest) but it didn't set them back in the long run it seems. Meanwhile mid-Majors Charleston (of the Colonial Athletic) and Florida Atlantic (of Conference USA) are still priced to perfection, or nearly so, and both move up to 4-seeds. Can either of them really finish out like this? Probably not but FAU has a much better chance, given that they are #19 in Strength to Charleston's #72, and the Owls have a loss to give. One of their toughest tests—at North Texas—is up next. Charleston also has a very tough test on Saturday vs. Towson.
North Carolina's season has been a mixed bag so far, but they've recovered from their slump and are up to a 5-seed now going into the ACC season. And Arkansas is flying high, up from an 8-seed as their 85-51 win over UNC Asheville impressed our power ratings apparently—they went from 23-8 to 25-6. Meanwhile the upset bug hit Illinois, though losing to 11-1 Missouri isn't necessarily an upset. The Illini drop from a 4-seed to a 5-seed, as does Kentucky. The Wildcats face the Tigers on Wednesday before facing Louisville on Saturday at home, which should be an interesting atmosphere to say the least. Now there's an upset that would make headlines!
Speaking of upsets, Utah State went into last week undefeated with 2 games on their schedule, and ended up going 2-2. First they were picked off by lowly Weber State 75-72, then the Aggies went 2-1 in a tournament, beating SMU and Washington State while losing to SMU 77-74 in between. The result isn't as bad as it could have been; they fall from a 3-seed to a 6-seed and are still favored in every game except one, and still our favorite to win the Mountain West.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 25. West Virginia 10-2 23-8 B12 82.8 +7.7 7 8 26. San Diego St. 9-3 24-6 MWC 81.2 -1.0 7 6 27. Kent St. 10-3 28-3 MAC 79.8 +0.5 7 7 28. New Mexico 12-0 26-4 MWC 78.3 -2.8 7 6 29. James Madison 9-4 27-4 SB 76.9 -4.6 8 6 30. Oral Roberts 10-3 26-3 Sum 75.4 +7.3 8 9 31. Yale 10-3 24-3 Ivy 74.0 +21.2 8 12 32. Maryland 9-3 22-9 B10 72.5 +7.2 8 9 33. Saint Mary's 10-4 24-6 WCC 71.1 -1.2 9 8 34. Rutgers 8-4 22-9 B10 69.6 -4.1 9 8 35. Colorado 8-5 18-13 P12 68.2 +8.4 9 10 36. Marquette 9-4 23-8 BE 66.7 +0.0 9 9
The rest of the Mountain West's contingent is here, with San Diego State and New Mexico both sliding to 7-seeds for unknown reasons (probably Utah State's losses hurt their SOS). The Lobos are one of the nation's few (three) undefeated teams; they take on Colorado State and Wyoming this week with about a 50/50 chance to stay unbeaten, though they are favored in both games.
The 8-line is filled with minor-conference "winners" who could all be strong enough to get an at-large if they need it. James Madison (Sun Belt) drops from a 6-seed though after losing in double overtime to Coppin State. Yale leaps from a 12-seed to an 8-seed despite their 24-3 projection remaining constant. The Bulldogs' Strength went up a lot as our pre-season component (where Yale was #197) is diminishing rapidly. Both teams—as well as the Summit League's Oral Roberts—are favored in all their remaining games so they'll all have to be near-perfect to remain in at-large territory. James Madison has the toughest test this week when they head to Marshall on Saturday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 37. Xavier 10-3 24-7 BE 65.3 +4.1 10 10 38. Memphis 10-3 26-5 Amer 63.8 +8.2 10 11 39. Creighton 8-6 22-9 BE 62.3 +13.7 10 12 40. Auburn 10-2 23-8 SEC 60.9 +10.9 10 12 41. Iowa 8-4 22-9 B10 59.4 -18.4 11 7 42. Arizona St. 11-2 22-9 P12 58.0 -11.5 11 9 43. Penn St. 9-3 20-11 B10 56.5 -7.4 11 10 44. Utah 9-4 21-10 P12 55.1 -7.5 11 10 45. Virginia Tech 11-2 24-7 ACC 53.6 -0.6 12 11 46. N.C. State 11-3 23-8 ACC 52.2 +18.0 12 47. Southern Miss 11-2 26-5 SB 50.7 +5.4 12 13 48. Iona 9-4 27-4 MAAC 49.3 -7.7 12 11
Creighton finally broke their 6-game losing streak with wins vs. Butler and DePaul, but it gets tougher this week: Seton Hall on Tuesday and UConn—on the road—on Saturday. Would be a great way to bounce back though, right?
When we talk about Xmas upsets, the Iowa loss to Eastern Illinois will be one for the ages. The Panthers were #342 in Strength with Iowa at #21. The Hawkeyes were 31.5 point favorites and lost by 9, four days before Xmas and hours before the huge winter storm that's still covering the nation was moving in. Rarely is there a "trap" game at home but this one was it, how overconfident were the Hawks going in? The result was a fall from a 7-seed to an 11-seed, meaning they're still expected to make it but pretty much a bubble team now, though getting leading scorer Kris Murray back will help going forward. They face fellow 11-seed Penn State on Sunday.
On the 12-line, Virginia Tech was upset by Boston College last week and falls a seed, while Southern Miss was beaten by UNLV but moves up as the loss was expected and accounted for in their 26-5 projection. Joining the seeding is NC State, who was in the First Four out but gained a lot this week. They only beat Louisville so it had to be something else amongst all the data that led to the jump (it looks like they flipped one game in their favor as their pre-season #94 rating fades away).
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 49. Miami FL 12-1 23-8 ACC 47.8 +16.4 13 50. Mississippi St. 11-1 23-8 SEC 46.4 -5.0 13p 12 51. Bradley 9-4 25-6 MVC 45.9 +20.1 13 14 52. Iowa St. 9-2 17-13 B12 44.5 +0.5 13p 13p 53. Marshall 11-2 27-4 SB 43.0 +1.9 13p 14p 54. UNLV 11-1 23-7 MWC 41.6 +6.0 13p 55. Texas Tech 9-2 18-13 B12 40.1 +3.1 56. Nevada 10-3 21-10 MWC 38.7 -3.9 13p 57. Boise St. 10-3 21-10 MWC 37.2 -21.1 11 58. Wisconsin 9-2 17-13 B10 35.8 -2.6 59. Oklahoma St. 8-4 14-17 B12 34.3 +5.7 60. Oregon 7-6 17-14 P12 32.9 -6.9 14p
This week's bubble adds two teams above water, Miami and UNLV. The Hurricanes are now 12-1, the Rebels 11-1, with realistic projections of 23-8 and 23-7. That would put them in position to get at-large bids if they do well in their conference tournaments, otherwise they're still in the danger zone. Meanwhile it's Bradley that improves their lot the most; the Braves might still have to win the Missouri Valley but two strong wins last week improved their at-large potential a lot.
UNLV isn't the only Mountain West team hoping to become the 4th team from that conference to go dancing—Nevada and Boise State are on the bubble but fall to the First Four Out this week. The Wolf Pack had a tepid win over Norfolk State, and the Broncos were worse, losing to Santa Clara 73-58. The rest of the bubble is made up of good Major conference teams stuck with a tough schedule: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Oregon may struggle to stay above .500 overall but they're good enough that they have a chance to turn things in their favor, hence the bubble locale. The Ducks have had a killer pre-conference schedule with Houston and UConn, plus UCLA already. But losing to Utah Valley at home—another Xmas surprise—dropped them to 7-6, not the best place to be in December if you're hunting an at-large bid.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(12/18) 62. UC Irvine 7-5 27-5 BW 30.0 -15.9 14 13 65. Dayton 8-5 24-7 A10 25.6 +15.6 14 66. UMass Lowell 12-2 29-2 AE 24.2 +12.3 14 14 72. Liberty 9-4 26-5 ASun 15.5 +2.2 14 73. Saint Louis 8-5 23-8 A10 14.0 -33.2 13 74. Youngstown St. 9-4 27-4 Horz 12.5 +3.5 15 15 86. Furman 9-4 26-5 SC 7.4 -3.1 15 15 89. Jacksonville 7-3 23-6 ASun 6.7 -10.8 14 110. Montana St. 7-6 23-8 BSky 4.0 -0.5 15 15 136. SIU Edwardsville 9-4 25-6 OVC 3.3 +0.3 15 16p 142. North Carolina Central 6-7 19-8 MEAC 3.1 +0.2 16 16p 145. Grambling St. 6-5 24-6 SWAC 3.0 -0.1 16 146. Gardner Webb 5-7 19-11 BSth 3.0 +0.2 16p 152. Colgate 6-7 23-8 Pat 2.9 -0.7 16p 15 153. High Point 8-4 21-9 BSth 2.8 -0.4 16 170. Southern 4-9 21-10 SWAC 2.4 -1.0 16 178. Northwestern St. 8-4 23-8 Slnd 2.2 0.0 16p 181. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 6-6 22-9 Slnd 2.1 -1.0 16p 235. Wagner 7-4 23-4 NEC 0.7 -0.7 16p 16p
Past the at-large teams to the 1-bid arena, we have Dayton taking over as the Atlantic 10 favorite from St. Louis, yet another victim of the pre-Xmas massacre as the Billikens lost to SIU Edwardsville 69-67 at home.
In the Atlantic Sun, we now have Liberty as the auto-bid, replacing Jacksonville whose 11-point win over lowly Louisiana Monroe looks like it sapped the Dolphins' Strength a bit.
In the SWAC, despite losing twice last week Grambling State replaces Southern (who lost once), with their rankings so close things could easily change next week. It will probably come down to what should be a competitive conference tournament.
The Big South now shows 5-7 Gardner Webb over 8-4 High Point, another matchup that looks like a close conference tournament will have to decide.
And finally the closest cut of all: Northwestern State barely moves in front of Texas A&M CC, or rather the latter drops beneath the Demons. The two face each other on Saturday for what might be a preview of the Southland tournament final.
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