After all the tournament action two weeks ago, last week's action was more few and far between, but there were still several big games and some big moves in our NCAA seeding projection. Here's a rundown of the moves from Nov. 27 to Dec. 4 and some of the notable upcoming games for this week, especially those on Saturday the 10th.
Dance Chance rankings for December 5, 2022
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 1. Indiana 7-1 30-1 B10 85.3 +2.3 1 1 2. Houston 8-0 31-0 Amer 84.9 +2.3 1 1 3. Connecticut 9-0 31-0 BE 84.6 +4.8 1 3 4. Texas 6-0 29-2 B12 84.2 +1.9 1 1 5. Baylor 6-2 28-3 B12 83.8 +2.6 2 2 6. Arizona 7-1 28-3 P12 83.5 +1.9 2 2 7. UCLA 7-2 28-3 P12 83.1 +4.8 2 4 8. Tennessee 7-1 28-3 SEC 82.7 +5.2 2 4
Indiana rather surprisingly retains not only a 1-seed but also the overall top seed despite their 63-48 loss to Rutgers on Saturday, which was a big letdown following their 77-65 win over North Carolina last Wednesday. The Hoosiers still rank high enough to be favored the rest of the way and at 30-1 they still outrank 31-0 Houston, who rises to the top of our Strength ratings (as well as hitting #1 in Pomeroy) after edging St. Mary's on Saturday. Joining the 1-line is UConn, who is also favored to be "undefeated" on a strict game-by-game basis. The Huskies beat Oklahoma State to start 9-0. Texas holds their 1-seed after beating Creighton 72-67; they face Illinois on Tuesday, while Houston takes on Alabama on a loaded Saturday (the 10th) which also sees Indiana host 2-seed Arizona.
Speaking of Arizona, the Wildcats lost at Utah 81-66 but hold their 2-seed; Baylor also suffered a bad loss—96-70 at Marquette—but followed it up with a win over Gonzaga. Two teams leap from 4-seeds to 2-seeds: UCLA won its first 2 Pac-12 games; Tennessee crushed McNeese and Alcorn 76-40 and 94-40 which boosted their outlook from 26-5 to 28-3. The Vols face Maryland next Sunday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 9. San Diego St. 6-2 27-3 MWC 82.4 +1.5 3 2 10. Gonzaga 5-3 28-3 WCC 82.0 +0.1 3 1 11. Purdue 8-0 28-3 B10 81.6 +1.5 3 3 12. Virginia 7-0 27-2 ACC 81.3 +1.9 3 3 13. Kentucky 6-2 27-4 SEC 80.9 +0.4 4 2 14. Ohio St. 6-2 24-7 B10 80.5 +3.7 4 5 15. Florida Atlantic 7-1 29-2 CUSA 80.2 +14.4 4 8 16. Utah St. 7-0 25-4 MWC 79.8 +12.9 4 8
Gonzaga started the year as our #1 team in Strength, expected to have only 1 loss; they've already had three now after falling to Baylor 64-63 in South Dakota. The Zags drop all the way to a projected 3-seed. They're still favored in every subsequent game, mostly because they play in the West Coast Conference, but 28-3 doesn't get you a 1-seed unless you win the big non-conference games. San Diego State also started the year as a 1-seed and are down from a 2- to a 3- after a week where they edged UC Irvine at home 72-69. The Aztecs face St. Mary's on Saturday the 10th.
Kentucky drops a few seeds as their tight game at Michigan negatively affected their outlook, adding a single projected loss; the Wildcats play 2-seed UCLA on Saturday. 4-seed Ohio State, meanwhile, moves up from a 5-seed despite losing to Duke on Wednesday. That loss was already "accounted for" and the Buckeyes managed to improve to a 24-7 projection. They host surging Rutgers on Wednesday.
Huge leaps into the 4-line are taken by Florida Atlantic and Utah State, both mid-majors who were 8-seeds last week. The Owls were projected at 27-4 a week ago but their recent wins—84-59 over South Alabama and 101-73 over Eastern Michigan—lifted their Strength and bumped their outlook to a lofty 29-2. Of course that means they would come crashing back down after any upset loss. The Aggies also lifted their outlook by 2 wins, and their 25-4 projection might be a bit more sustainable. Their 18-point win over San Francisco was the catalyst of their climb.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 17. Alabama 7-1 25-6 SEC 79.4 +1.5 5 4 18. Iowa 6-1 26-5 B10 79.1 +1.9 5 5 19. Duke 8-2 26-5 ACC 78.7 +2.6 5 5 20. UAB 7-1 28-3 CUSA 78.3 -0.3 5 4 21. Auburn 8-0 27-4 SEC 77.9 -1.1 6 3 22. Illinois 6-2 23-8 B10 77.6 +2.6 6 6 23. James Madison 7-2 28-3 SB 77.2 +1.9 6 6 24. North Carolina 5-4 24-7 ACC 76.8 +1.1 6 6
Not much action on the 5-line except for Alabama and UAB both slipping there from a 4-seed. The Tide face 1-seed Houston on Saturday as noted before, and the Blazers travel to West Virginia in perhaps the toughest game on their schedule going forward. Meanwhile 5-seeds Iowa and Duke clash on Tuesday in Madison Square Garden. This is actually an opportunity for Duke as we favor the Hawkeyes by a point (Kenpom has Duke by a point, and Vegas has Duke by 3).
The 6-line is even more constant, with three teams remaining there. Auburn slips all the way there from a 3-seed however, though they remain undefeated after beating Colgate 93-66. Blame Tennessee's surge as the Vols are now favored in both their home and away clashes with the Tigers. The rest of the 6-line has a tough road ahead. Illinois, coming off a loss to Maryland, faces Texas and Penn State; James Madison travels to 3-seed Virginia Tuesday; and North Carolina looks to break a 4-game skid against Georgia Tech on Saturday in Chapel Hill.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 25. Charleston 8-1 29-2 CAA 76.5 +21.7 7 11 26. Arkansas 7-1 23-8 SEC 75.2 +2.2 7 7 27. Saint Louis 7-2 26-5 A10 73.9 -2.6 7 5 28. Kansas 8-1 23-8 B12 72.6 +3.3 7 8 29. Rutgers 6-2 18-13 B10 71.3 +49.9 8 30. New Mexico 7-0 24-5 MWC 70.1 +28.0 8 13p 31. Sam Houston St. 7-1 26-5 WAC 68.8 +9.1 8 10 32. Creighton 6-3 25-6 BE 67.5 -7.1 8 6
Charleston is the big news among the 7-seeds, up from an 11 last week after two strong wins pushed their projection to a tough-to-sustain 29-2. It's hard to find more than one loss on their rest of the Cougars' easy schedule but staying that consistent is very tough. Saint Louis falls from a 5-seed despite two wins, showing you don't even have to lose to drop in our projection!
Rutgers had last week's biggest win, beating overall top seed Indiana 63-48 and it wasn't close for the last 10 minutes. From nowhere the Scarlet Knights move to an 8-seed and gain nearly 50% in March Madness probability! Undefeated New Mexico makes almost the same leap from the very bubble after upsetting St. Mary's 69-65 on the road. Sam Houston State suffered their first loss, 78-60 to Nevada—but are still projected to be 26-5, and as the pre-season influence (which put the Bearkats at #155 in Strength) continues to diminish, their current Strength rank of #66 pulls them up two rungs from an 8-seed last week. Tuesday brings another of their projected losses—at Oklahoma State—so really it's an opportunity to move up even more. Creighton lost twice more last week to Texas and Nebraska, the latter of which was a surprise and dropped the Jays from a 6-seed. They close out their pre-conference season against BYU and 11-seed Arizona State in Las Vegas.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 33. Kent St. 6-2 26-4 MAC 66.2 +26.6 9 13 34. Xavier 6-3 25-6 BE 65.0 -6.8 9 7 35. Saint Mary's 6-3 24-6 WCC 63.7 -10.6 9 7 36. Iona 4-2 26-3 MAAC 62.4 +26.4 9 14 37. Maryland 8-0 20-11 B10 61.1 +17.8 10 13p 38. Mississippi St. 8-0 24-7 SEC 59.9 +3.9 10 10 39. Colorado 4-5 18-13 P12 58.6 +21.4 10 40. Towson 8-1 27-4 CAA 57.3 +4.9 10 11
The 9 line is occupied by four new teams, either moving up or down. The upwardly mobile are Kent State and Iona, jumping from 13 and 14 seeds. The Golden Flashes beat South Dakota State 83-68 and their 5-point loss at Houston the previous week is looking better and better. If they really want to make a move, they have the chance: they are taking on 3-seed Gonzaga Monday evening. Iona won by 22 and 30 last week and those wins affected their Strength more than most since they had just four games under their belt previously. On the way down are Xavier and St. Mary's. The Musketeers got a solid win over West Virginia while St. Mary's lost to New Mexico and Houston, yet both dropped, the Gaels a bit more percentage-wise though.
Two new teams join the 10-seed line in a significant way. Maryland is 8-0 now after beating 0-9 Louisville and 6-2 Illinois, they're up from the bubble. Colorado is just 4-5 but is projected to be 18-13 or so, which is enough to bring them in from below the bubble despite two losses last week to ASU and Washington. How did this happen? Let's figure it out, because I'm wondering that exact thing. Last week they were projected to be 19-12, lost unexpectedly to ASU, and now are 18-13, yet they make a decent move from the First Four Out to a 10-seed. Clearly someone they beat—or will beat—made a big move that affected the Buffaloes status. It's probably their early win over Tennessee that's working its magic. That huge win is even huger now that the Vols are a 2-seed. Yale also made a decent move up and that helps, too, in fact it looks like every team Colorado played did well last week.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 41. Memphis 6-2 24-7 Amer 56.0 -4.8 11 9 42. Arizona St. 8-1 21-10 P12 54.8 +23.6 11 43. UNLV 8-0 22-8 MWC 53.5 +4.8 11 12 44. Nevada 7-2 21-10 MWC 52.2 +5.9 11 12 45. Boise St. 6-2 22-9 MWC 50.9 +22.2 12 46. Southern Illinois 5-3 25-7 MVC 49.7 -12.4 12 9 47. Texas Tech 5-2 21-10 B12 48.4 -14.9 12 9 48. Oral Roberts 6-3 26-4 Sum 47.1 +37.8 12 14
Arizona State's wins over Colorado and Stanford moves the Sun Devils into the seedings at 11. Boise State beat Colorado a few weeks ago and beat Texas A&M last week to enter as a 12-seed; the Broncos take on 7-seed St. Louis on Saturday. Speaking of St. Louis they just beat Southern Illinois 85-72 and the Salukis fall 3 seed-lines from a 9, as does Texas Tech who beat Georgetown yet sees their projection drop from 23-8 to 21-10, clearly due to future opponents gaining strength, not anything they did.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 49. Utah 7-2 21-10 P12 45.9 +34.7 13 50. VCU 5-3 26-5 A10 44.6 -23.6 13 8 51. West Virginia 6-2 17-14 B12 44.0 +10.4 13p 52. Iowa St. 7-1 19-12 B12 42.8 -2.3 13p 13 53. Bradley 6-3 23-8 MVC 41.5 +35.9 13p 54. Penn St. 6-2 19-12 B10 40.2 -3.7 13p 13p 55. Yale 8-1 23-4 Ivy 38.9 +33.3 14 15 56. Drake 7-1 24-7 MVC 37.7 -9.9 12 57. UC Irvine 6-3 27-5 BW 36.4 -13.6 14 12 58. Michigan St. 5-4 16-15 B10 35.1 -35.5 7 59. Furman 6-2 28-3 SC 33.8 -17.3 14 11 60. Dayton 5-4 24-7 A10 32.6 -25.9 10 61. Virginia Tech 8-1 23-8 ACC 31.3 +12.2
Now for the bubble. VCU was looking good as an 8-seed last week but is just holding on after losing to Temple. There's plenty of time to recover, though. Jumping into the bubble in a big way are Utah and Bradley, both up around 35% in probability. Utah's rise is clearly due to their 81-66 upset of Arizona, while the Braves won two nondescript games last week but have a big opportunity when they face 7-seed Arkansas on Saturday.
First Four Out: Drake drops from a 12-seed after losing a close one to Indiana State. Dayton falls a bit further, from a 10-seed, as the Flyers weren't impressive enough against their overmatched foes last week. Virginia Tech moves up into the bubble after upsetting North Carolina, but even that isn't enough to put them above the waterline. And the shocking drop this week is Michigan State, falling out of the seeding from a 7-seed as the Spartans lost twice to unheralded teams: at Notre Dame 70-52, and at home to Northwestern 70-63. Is Sparty tired from their grueling early schedule? We now have them just 16-15 on the year which is a hard sell considering no team with 15 losses has made the cut yet.
Furman also dropped despite winning twice; the Paladins looked at-large-bidworthy last week but fall to an auto-bid 14-seed as the top-ranked Southern Conference team, suggesting they might not have much leeway even if they are 28-3 before their conference tournament.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/27) 62. Marquette 6-3 18-13 BE 30.0 +24.7 63. Grand Canyon 7-2 25-6 WAC 28.7 -24.8 11 64. Jacksonville 4-2 24-5 ASun 27.5 +2.4 14 14 72. UC Santa Barbara 5-2 27-4 BW 17.3 -40.0 10 90. Youngstown St. 6-3 27-4 Horz 8.2 +3.3 15 91. Missouri St. 4-4 20-11 MVC 7.9 -56.6 9 92. Western Kentucky 7-1 24-7 CUSA 7.6 -33.3 13p 122. Bryant 6-3 23-6 AE 4.7 -7.6 15 14 135. Colgate 5-5 25-6 Pat 4.4 -0.6 15 15 139. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 4-4 25-6 Slnd 4.3 -0.7 15 15 141. Longwood 5-4 23-8 BSth 4.3 0.0 16 144. Southern 3-5 23-8 SWAC 4.2 -0.1 16 16 148. SIU Edwardsville 7-2 24-7 OVC 4.1 +0.2 16p 153. Montana St. 4-5 22-8 BSky 3.9 +0.0 16p 16p 167. UNC Asheville 5-3 20-11 BSth 3.6 -0.8 16 168. Tennessee Martin 4-5 24-7 OVC 3.6 -0.5 16p 176. Wright St. 5-4 21-10 Horz 3.4 -1.5 15 178. Norfolk St. 5-4 23-7 MEAC 3.3 -0.8 16p 16p 206. Wagner 4-3 23-4 NEC 2.6 -0.6 16p 16p
Now the 1-bid leagues and other teams falling off the seeding shelf.
First, let's take a look at Marquette, who had an up and down week beating 2-seed Baylor 96-70 but then losing in overtime to unseeded Wisconsin. Had the Eagles beaten the Badgers they'd be in the seeding for sure, as they are the "fifth" team out after a near 25% gain.
The Dropouts: 9-seed Missouri State lost 58-40 to Bradley and is now 4-4, and a 20-11 record on an MVC schedule probably won't get them in. Santa Barbara lost to Duquesne and dropped off the 10-line. And Grand Canyon beat Alcorn State and Wyoming by 8 points each which didn't convince our formula they're destined for an at-large bid. The harsh truth of being a mid-major is coming true for many teams already, including C-USA's Western Kentucky who drops off the end of the bubble as they barely held on to beat Austin Peay by a point. All of these teams have ample time to right the ship and, failing that, to win their conference tournament.
Youngstown State is our new Horizon rep; the Penguins went 1-1 this week losing to Northern Kentucky in double overtime, but also beating last week's Horizon rep Wright State. That always helps. Longwood takes over from UNC Asheville in the Big South; the Lancers were 1-1 and so were the Bulldogs but were apparently more impressive (or less unimpressive) and own the 16-seed for the time being. And SIU Edwardsville is the new team to beat in the Ohio Valley not Tennessee-Martin, who lost to former Big South rep Asheville last weekend and are just 4-5 to Edwardsville's 7-2.
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