Upset pick: James Madison beats AP#1 North Carolina on Sunday

Here's an upset pick: James Madison over North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Sunday November 20, 2022.

At the beginning of the year we would have favored the Tar Heels by 23 points. And no doubt they'll still be the favorite when the line comes out.

But it's rare when teams diverge this much from their pre-season expectations so consistently in their first several performances. Here are our pre-season predictions for the teams' first games:

James Madison projected and actual results:

Valley Forge             42, James Madison          97   (55) actual: W 123-38 (+30)
Hampton                  64, James Madison          75   (11) actual: W 106-58 (+37)
James Madison            72, Buffalo                67   (5)  actual: W  97-62 (+30)
James Madison            69, Howard                 70   (-1) actual: W  95-69 (+27)

The Dukes have been outperforming like gangbusters, an unreal +31 points per game so far. 

North Carolina projected and actual results:

UNC Wilmington           54, North Carolina         85   (31) actual: W  69-56 (-18)
Charleston               55, North Carolina         84   (29) actual: W 102-86 (-13)
Gardner Webb             54, North Carolina         85   (31) actual: W  72-66 (-25)

The Tar Heels were supposed to crush Wilmington, Charleston, and Gardner-Webb at home by about 30 points each game, but instead averaged a win by 11.7 points, an underperformance of 18.7 points per game.

Original prediction:

James Madison 58, North Carolina 81

At the beginning of the season this looked like a 23 point win for UNC. They haven't beaten a team by more than 16 so far, and those were teams they were supposed to beat by 30. 

By UNC's underperformance, a 23 point win becomes about a 4 point win.

By James Madison's overperformance, a 23 point loss becomes an 8 point win.

Put the two together and it's a blowout win for James Madison by 31+19-23 = 27 points

Realistically James Madison won't beat North Carolina by 27 points at Chapel Hill, but we could see a 1-point upset win easily.

Maybe this will be the game to wake up the Tar Heels? Maybe they'll look at what the Dukes have been doing and take this game seriously, finally playing up to their potential. Or they'll go into halftime with a deficit and finally wake up in the 2nd half.

If neither of those scenarios plays out, then North Carolina will lose this game. 

In 1982, James Madison lost to UNC 52-50,. The Tar Heels went on to win the national title.

This could be their revenge, 40 years later.

Our official pick: James Madison 79, UNC 75