I wanted to call this post "How great is the Big 8" because it rhymes, and because the Big 12 only has 10 teams anyway so they could have reverted to calling it the Big 8 anyway. But that's not the point—the point is, the Big Twelve is pretty amazing so far in 2022-2023.
Not just because they have three teams in the AP top 10, the most of any conference, but because their bottom half is definitely the best in the country, too. They have 5 teams in the top 26, and four of the remaining 5 are receiving votes.
But we look at power ratings here, so let's look at each team in our Strength power rating and see what they've been up to:
Rank Team Rec Rating 2. Texas 5-0 24.30 5. Baylor 5-1 23.26 18. Kansas 6-1 18.10 22. Texas Tech 4-2 16.52 29. Iowa St. 5-1 15.23 35. West Virginia 6-1 14.63 36. Oklahoma St. 5-2 13.59 41. Oklahoma 6-1 13.04 44. Kansas St. 6-0 12.29 52. TCU 5-1 11.58
The best team in the conference isn't even defending national champion Kansas; that says something already. It's probably Texas, who is 5-0 with a 93-74 win over Gonzaga. Texas is #1 in Pomeroy currently. If not Texas it's probably Baylor; though the Bears have a loss to Virginia they also beat UCLA. Kansas lost to Tennessee but beat Duke. At any rate these are very good teams.
But every Major conference has good teams at the top. Let's look for the worst Big 12 team and see how bad they are. We'll start at the bottom with TCU.
- TCU lost at home to Northwestern State, I think we've found a terrible team. But wait...they just beat Iowa 79-66. Ok, next:
- Kansas State: They're 6-0 and just won the Cayman Islands Classic with a win over LSU. Next.
- Oklahoma: The Sooners lost their home opener to Sam Houston State. But only by one point. And the Bearkats are a pretty solid opponent. And the Sooners rallied to win 6 straight games including winning the ESPN Events Invitational beating Seton Hall and Mississippi. Not bad.
- Oklahoma State: Here's the only team without an AP vote. No impressive wins and two losses. But if the Cowboys are stinking up the place so bad why are they #36 in Strength and #34 in Pomeroy? Their two losses are by 1 point, and in overtime. It's hard to call them a bad team but by résumé they're probably the "worst" team in the Big 12 so far this year.
The point is that even the bottom four teams are not easy outs by any means. Now let's see if the Big 12 has a soft middle or not.
- West Virginia: 6-1 this year so far, their only loss is to undefeated and skyrocketing Purdue, who had a tougher time with the Mountaineers than they did with Gonzaga.
- Iowa State: Expected to be perhaps the worst team in the conference, the Cyclones are 5-1 with a win over pre-season #1 North Carolina. Add the Villanova win and they've beaten half of last year's Final Four.
- Texas Tech: Only 4-2, but the losses are to Creighton and Ohio State. No big wins (Louisville doesn't count). Maybe the only real disappointment in the league so far, but still a consensus top 30 or so team
So what we have is a league who doesn't really have a bad team, instead its teams are either arguably in the top five (Texas, Baylor), winning tournaments (Kansas State, Oklahoma), scoring impressive upsets (TCU, Iowa State), losing only to very tough teams (West Virginia, Texas Tech), or could be undefeated easily with a couple of bounces of the ball (Oklahoma State).
That's only 9 teams. The other one is the defending national champion. That's the Big 12 right now.
The problem is that once conference season starts, the losses will add up, and several probably-deserving teams won't get in. By their Strength numbers 9 of the 10 conference teams should make it, with TCU on the bubble. But in our projected Dance Chance tournament seeding algorithm, only 5 Big Twelve teams are in. Left out are (projected) West Virginia (15-16), Oklahoma State (15-16), Oklahoma (14-17), Kansas State (16-15), and TCU (15-16).
With so many talented teams and so much parity, the Big Twelve is again destined to be great but might again look typical among the Major conferences come March.
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