Updating our Dance Chance for week two and suddenly there are three undefeated teams in the forecast, up from ZERO last week. What changed? Not much, given that the forecast is strictly game-by-game so if a team is favored to win all its games, it shows as undefeated. That's an accomplishment in itself, but following through to win all those games is damn near impossible, and if game-by-game odds were figured in, no team would appear likely to go undefeated.
Adding to the difficulty is that we track only scheduled games; this week is full of mini-tournaments where each team plays three games, which means the winner will face ever-tougher competition not accounted for yet on their slate. Not to mention the conference tournaments at the end of the regular season.
So with that in mind let's look at what happened last week and how it affected our long-distance Dance Chance tournament seeding prognostication:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 1. Indiana 4-0 31-0 B10 80.7 +2.4 1 1 2. Houston 5-0 32-0 Amer 80.3 +3.5 1 2 3. Gonzaga 3-1 30-1 WCC 80.0 +2.1 1 1 4. San Diego St. 3-0 28-0 MWC 79.6 +5.7 1 4 5. Texas 3-0 28-3 B12 79.2 +2.7 2 2 6. Kentucky 3-2 28-3 SEC 78.9 +1.3 2 1 7. Toledo 3-0 29-1 MAC 78.5 +8.2 2 6 8. Auburn 4-0 27-3 SEC 78.1 +2.7 2 3
Indiana remained the overall 1-seed, Houston joined from the 2-line, and San Diego State jumped back into the 1-line from a 4-seed. The thing they have in common is they're all projected to be undefeated (last week, none was projected thus). Games that were 1-point losses last week look like 1-point wins now, either because the team in question played really well last week (Houston, San Diego State) or a key opponent played poorly (Indiana, whose future loss to Kansas got erased). Note that the Aztecs face Ohio State in Hawaii today, in a tournament where they will face two other potentially tough teams not accounted for on their advance schedule.
Gonzaga holds their 1-seed despite the big loss to Texas, who remains a 2-seed. The Zags came back to demolish Kentucky, which evened things out; both the win and the loss were expected, but not the excessive point margins. Neither was Kentucky's loss to Michigan State, which is why the Wildcats drop to a 2-seed. Fellow SEC member Auburn moves up a seed, but the Tigers remain untested thus far and shouldn't have much trouble in the Cancun Challenge.
The big surprise here is Toledo, jumping from a 6-seed to a 2-seed after their outlook changed from 27-3 to 29-1. A MAC schedule won't normally get you a 2-seed but if you go 29-1 it might, and just a few more losses will drop you a lot. The Rockets look capable of having a good year but that kind of consistency is elusive, and the early-year outlooks on a game-by-game basis are always more favorable than the reality that emerges. Let's just say we don't foresee Toledo maintaining their 2-seed outlook, especially since they're only #86 in Strength.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 9. Arizona 3-0 27-2 P12 77.8 +4.2 3 4 10. UAB 2-1 28-2 CUSA 77.4 +6.0 3 5 11. North Carolina 4-0 26-3 ACC 77.0 +1.3 3 2 12. Baylor 4-1 27-4 B12 76.7 +0.6 3 2 13. Virginia 4-0 26-3 ACC 76.3 +1.3 4 3 14. Tennessee 2-1 25-4 SEC 75.9 +3.4 4 5 15. UCLA 3-2 28-4 P12 75.6 +1.3 4 3 16. Kansas 4-0 25-4 B12 75.2 -2.0 4 1
Arizona is sort of flying under the radar again this season but they move up to a 3-seed, ready for their Maui Invitational test, while North Carolina—definitely not flying under the radar—falls from 2 to 3. The Tar Heels beat James Madison handily but their earlier 72-66 win over Gardner-Webb left a lot to be desired. Another mid-major surprise here in UAB, tops in the C-USA and moving up from a 5-seed to a 3-seed; they already have a loss—to Toledo—but they're almost exclusively favored the rest of the way.
Baylor lost to Virginia and fell a seed from 2 to 3, while the Cavaliers also slipped a seed despite their solid wins this week (they also beat Illinois). Go figure. In that same tournament UCLA had two losses: to Illinois and to Baylor, dropping the Bruins a seed. And Kansas fell from a 1-seed to the lowest 4-seed, despite beating Duke 69-64 on a neutral court. That win was expected, and their subsequent game vs. Southern Utah was tight enough (82-76) that their Strength suffered; Strength rating is what drives the future projections, and Kansas went from 26-3 to 25-4. They're in the Battle 4 Atlantis this week which also features 4-seed Tennessee.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 17. Saint Louis 4-1 28-4 A10 74.9 +1.7 5 4 18. James Madison 4-1 28-2 SB 74.5 +4.5 5 6 19. Duke 3-1 25-4 ACC 74.1 +1.2 5 4 20. Iowa 3-0 25-5 B10 73.8 +8.6 5 8 21. Alabama 4-0 24-6 SEC 73.4 +2.4 6 6 22. Missouri St. 2-1 25-4 MVC 73.0 +21.9 6 11 23. Saint Mary's 5-0 25-5 WCC 72.7 +20.5 6 11 24. Dayton 3-1 26-5 A10 72.3 +0.2 6 5
Iowa is the only big mover into the 5-seed line, and it took just one game: an impressive 83-67 win at Seton Hall to move the Hawkeyes from 8- to 5. Saint Louis, James Madison, Duke, and Dayton all lost a game last week, and it hurt the Billikens, the Blue Devils, and the Flyers. But James Madison's overall play so far kept them moving up in spite of a rough game at North Carolina. Meanwhile a couple of teams launch from 11-seeds to 6-seeds. Missouri State lost to BYU on the road as expected, but only by 2 points, and they turned around and blasted MTSU by 24. Saint Mary's added a couple of easy home wins and the Gaels are now projected to be 25-5, up from last week's 22-8.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 25. Grand Canyon 3-1 27-3 WAC 71.9 +17.5 7 10 26. Illinois 4-1 24-7 B10 70.8 +6.6 7 8 27. VCU 3-2 27-4 A10 69.6 -2.2 7 5 28. Michigan St. 3-1 19-10 B10 68.5 +27.9 7 13 29. UC Santa Barbara 2-1 30-2 BW 67.3 -3.4 8 6 30. Connecticut 5-0 23-6 BE 66.2 +9.7 8 10 31. Purdue 3-0 23-6 B10 65.0 +1.9 8 8 32. Creighton 4-0 22-7 BE 63.9 +10.6 8 10
It was pretty obvious that Michigan State would make some kind of big move after getting upset wins over then 1-seed Kentucky (86-77 in double overtime) and 3-seed Villanova (73-71 at home). The Spartans rise from a 13-seed to a 7-seed but they're still expected to suffer double-digits in the L column due to a killer schedule. They compete in the Phil Knight Invitational this week facing 6-seed Alabama in the first round and possibly meeting Villanova again.
Other notable moves here include Grand Canyon up from a 10-seed, and UConn and Creighton both moving up 2 seed lines, both due to strong play against overmatched competition. Illinois only moves up 1 line with their upset of UCLA, since they lost to Virginia after. On the downside VCU and Santa Barbara both lost games last week, VCU to Memphis (as expected but 62-47 instead of a close game) and UCSB to Northern Arizona 63-54, a game they were supposed to win handily. So far our system, which blends in new results to replace pre-season bias, is sticking with the Gauchos as the Big West conference champ but we'll see how much longer they can maintain a gaudy 30-2 outlook.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 33. Towson 4-0 29-2 CAA 62.7 +1.8 9 9 34. Ohio St. 3-0 20-9 B10 61.6 -8.0 9 7 35. Seton Hall 3-1 22-7 BE 60.4 -1.6 9 8 36. Villanova 2-2 22-7 BE 59.3 -15.4 9 3 37. Xavier 3-1 23-7 BE 58.1 -9.3 10 7 38. St. John's 4-0 24-6 BE 57.0 +7.0 10 11 39. Michigan 4-1 22-9 B10 55.8 -10.5 10 7 40. Memphis 2-1 22-7 Amer 54.7 -5.1 10 9
Ohio State didn't play poorly this week, but what dropped them 2 seeds is they "lost" their projected biggest win over San Diego State. That game happens today (Monday, the 21st) so if they get that one back, they'll be in good shape again. That game is part of the Maui Invitational and also features Arkansas, Arizona, and Creighton. Villanova fell the old-fashioned way—by losing a game they were expected to win, at Michigan State. As a 3-seed just last week, they were projected (ideally) at 27-2 but now it's 22-7, a huge difference caused as much by their tepid 60-50 win over Delaware State.
Xavier and Michigan also dropped multiple seed lines from last week. The Musketeers played Indiana close in a loss as expected to within a point and they have the same W-L projection so it must be more fluke than anything else. The Wolverines' drop is easier to explain: they lost to Arizona State 87-62, and needed overtime to beat Ohio 70-66.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 41. Florida Atlantic 4-1 26-5 CUSA 53.5 +29.2 11 42. Murray St. 3-2 24-6 MVC 52.4 +31.3 11 43. Arkansas 3-0 22-7 SEC 51.2 -6.4 11 9 44. Western Kentucky 3-0 25-4 CUSA 50.1 +24.7 11 45. New Mexico 3-0 22-8 MWC 48.9 +34.7 12 46. Texas Tech 3-0 22-7 B12 47.8 -1.1 12 11 47. Cincinnati 3-1 24-6 Amer 46.6 -12.1 12 9 48. Utah St. 4-0 21-8 MWC 45.5 +27.7 12
A bunch of new teams slip in above the bubble line this week: Florida Atlantic upset Florida on the road 76-74; Murray State stunned Texas A&M, 88-79, which was enough to offset a loss to UMass, already their 2nd, a day later; Western Kentucky beat non-DI Indianapolis but their outlook was helped by the struggles of Louisville and South Carolina, both games they look able to win en route to a 25-4 season; New Mexico upset SMU 84-63 on the road; and Utah State drubbed Santa Clara in a more dominant fashion than expected, which was apparently enough to revise the Aggies upward quite a bit from last week. Meanwhile Cincinnati's loss to Northern Kentucky put their outlook in doubt.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 49. Penn St. 5-1 21-10 B10 44.3 -2.4 13 12 50. Nevada 4-0 20-9 MWC 43.2 +23.2 13p 51. Southern Illinois 3-1 25-7 MVC 42.5 +31.4 13p 52. USC 3-1 22-7 P12 41.4 -14.0 13p 10 53. Wyoming 3-2 20-10 MWC 40.2 -28.3 13p 7 54. Furman 3-2 30-3 SC 39.1 -5.5 13 12 55. Mississippi St. 4-0 21-9 SEC 37.9 +2.7 56. New Mexico St. 1-1 23-6 WAC 36.8 +26.7 57. Colorado 3-3 18-13 P12 35.6 -0.7 14p 58. Jacksonville 2-1 25-4 ASun 34.5 +3.6 14 14 59. UNLV 4-0 21-9 MWC 33.3 +24.2
Here's the actual bubble at this very-early juncture. USC and Wyoming stumble into the Play-in territory, after struggling more than they should have in wins in USC's case, and taking a loss to Drake in Wyoming's. Nevada and Southern Illinois launched into the last four with strong wins last week. Mississippi State remained on the bubble while Colorado slipped out of the play-in game, their win over Texas A&M and earlier win over Tennessee balanced by two losses last week to UMass and Boise State. Also in the last four out are New Mexico State—who didn't play but somehow increased their odds visibly—and UNLV who upset Dayton.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/13) 62. Virginia Tech 5-1 22-9 ACC 29.9 -17.9 12 66. Miami FL 4-1 24-7 ACC 25.3 -13.2 13p 68. Fresno St. 1-3 20-10 MWC 23.0 -16.6 13p 69. Ohio 1-3 24-7 MAC 21.8 -19.9 13 77. Texas A&M 3-2 17-14 SEC 13.4 -24.0 14p 81. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 3-1 28-3 Slnd 12.2 +5.9 14 15 82. Oral Roberts 3-2 24-6 Sum 11.8 -33.9 14 12 84. Iona 2-1 24-5 MAAC 11.2 -0.9 14 14 88. Notre Dame 4-0 22-9 ACC 9.9 -33.6 13 89. Bryant 3-1 23-6 AE 9.6 -1.9 15 103. Colgate 3-2 28-3 Pat 5.9 +0.2 15 15 110. Vermont 1-4 21-8 AE 5.8 -24.0 14 126. Wright St. 3-1 24-7 Horz 5.3 -0.6 15 15 129. Southern 1-3 21-8 SWAC 5.3 +0.6 15 16p 130. Montana St. 3-2 23-7 BSky 5.2 +0.1 16 16 140. Longwood 3-3 23-9 BSth 5.0 +0.1 16 16p 150. Norfolk St. 4-2 24-6 MEAC 4.7 -0.7 16p 153. Howard 3-4 23-7 MEAC 4.7 -1.0 15 156. Cornell 3-1 20-7 Ivy 4.6 -0.5 16p 16p 169. Wagner 3-2 24-3 NEC 4.2 -1.0 16p 16 180. Tennessee Martin 3-3 22-9 OVC 4.0 -0.1 16p 16p
And on to the auto-bid qualifiers. First we note a number of teams who slipped out of the seeding: Virginia Tech, Miami, Fresno State, Ohio, and Texas A&M. The Hokies were upset by Charleston; the Hurricanes got smoked 88-70 by Maryland; Fresno and Ohio both fell to 1-3; and the Aggies lost to both Murray State and Colorado. Notre Dame didn't lost but played two lackluster games against expansion team Southern Indiana (82-70) and Lipscomb (66-65).
Two divisional "champs" changed: Bryant took over in the America East for Vermont, who is now just 1-4, albeit against a tough schedule. And Norfolk State is our designed MEAC champ now that Howard is just 3-4, but this one is close and could change back at any time.
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