Thanksgiving week was full of tournaments—nothing close the real one that happens in March, though many did resemble the strength of a conference tournament. Of course that led to many games between the highest-ranked opponents, and furthermore it revealed several "hidden" games on a team's schedule, since any games past the first game in a tournament are only uncovered after the first round.
Amid all the tournament chaos, the early season projections are starting to take form. Here's a rundown of our latest Dance Chance three weeks into the short season:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 1. Indiana 6-0 31-0 B10 83.0 +2.3 1 1 2. Houston 6-0 31-0 Amer 82.7 +2.3 1 1 3. Texas 5-0 30-1 B12 82.3 +3.1 1 2 4. Gonzaga 5-2 29-2 WCC 81.9 +2.0 1 1 5. Arizona 6-0 29-2 P12 81.6 +3.8 2 3 6. Baylor 5-1 28-3 B12 81.2 +4.5 2 3 7. San Diego St. 4-2 28-2 MWC 80.8 +1.2 2 1 8. Kentucky 4-2 28-3 SEC 80.5 +1.6 2 2
Indiana remains our overall top seed, a bit surprisingly. The Hoosiers are still favored in all their games despite the surge of many Big Ten teams. Indiana has no real chance of going undefeated against a Big Ten schedule—this isn't 1976—but they now boast our #1 Strength rating after winning by 19 and 39 against overmatched opponents last week. This Wednesday they have their first major test when they host North Carolina.
Houston is also projected to be undefeated, and they might actually achieve it given their much friendlier schedule. The Cougars struggled in their only game of the week (Kent State) though, winning just 49-44. It's rare when any team goes undefeated, but each year seems to have one or two teams that make it 18-0 or so before their first loss, and Houston looks like one of those teams. They do face St. Mary's in one of their bigger remaining non-conference tests on Saturday.
Gonzaga also holds on to their 1-seed for now despite taking their 2nd loss against Purdue, 84-66, in the 2nd round of the Phil Knight Legacy tourney. The Zags beat Xavier to rebound from the loss and are still favored in the rest of their games but their toughest test is coming against Baylor in South Dakota (now that is a neutral court!). New in the top seed line is Texas (5-0), who like Indiana avoided the tournament scene and just beat a couple of marginal squads 73-48 and 91-54. Still, it improved their outlook from 28-3 to 30-1, which is a clear 1-seed due to the Longhorns' Big 12 schedule and their previous win over fellow 1-seed Gonzaga. Their face another staunch test in their only game this week vs. Creighton.
Falling out of the 1-seed line is San Diego State. The Aztecs were favored in every scheduled game this year, which made them 28-0—but althought they beat their initial foe, Ohio State, in the Maui Invitational, they were outclassed by Arizona 87-70, and fell short in overtime vs. Arkansas 78-74. They are still favored to win every scheduled game in the future. Joining them on the 2-line is Arizona who went on to win the Maui tournament by beating Creighton. Also moving up is Baylor, winner over McNeese State 89-60. As mentioned, the Bears face 1-seed Gonzaga on Friday, Dec. 2 in a rematch of the 2021 national title game.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 9. Purdue 6-0 27-4 B10 80.1 +15.1 3 8 10. Connecticut 8-0 29-2 BE 79.7 +13.6 3 8 11. Virginia 5-0 27-2 ACC 79.4 +3.1 3 4 12. Auburn 7-0 28-3 SEC 79.0 +0.9 3 2 13. UAB 5-1 29-2 CUSA 78.6 +1.2 4 3 14. UCLA 5-2 27-4 P12 78.3 +2.7 4 4 15. Alabama 6-1 25-6 SEC 77.9 +4.5 4 6 16. Tennessee 5-1 26-5 SEC 77.5 +1.6 4 4
PK85 Tournament winners: Making major leaps into the 3-seed line are rising stars Purdue and UConn. Both move up from 8-seeds after each won one of the PK85 tournaments in Portland. The Boilermakers warmed up by beating West Virginia, then took out Gonzaga 84-66, and then crushed Duke 75-56 to win the Phil Knight Legacy tournament. The Huskies beat Oregon, Alabama, and Iowa State—all by 15 or more points, in the Phil Knight Invitational side. These are clearly two teams to watch. Alabama's PK85 run started by beating Michigan State, and after the UConn loss they rebounded with a crazy 4 overtime win over North Carolina; the Tide move up to a 4-seed from last week's 6-seed.
Auburn drops from a 2- to a 3-seed; the Tigers are undefeated at 7-0 but beat Northwestern by just 1 point to win the Cancun Challenge, then edged St. Louis 65-60 at home. Virginia is unbeaten and moves up after a solid win over UMES, 72-45. Meanwhile UAB falls a seed despite winning three games comfortably; you can probably blame Toledo for that, as the Rockets sputtered last week after handing the Blazers their sole loss in week one.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 17. Iowa 5-1 26-5 B10 77.2 +3.4 5 5 18. Ohio St. 5-1 23-8 B10 76.8 +15.2 5 9 19. Saint Louis 5-2 27-4 A10 76.4 +1.6 5 5 20. Duke 6-2 26-5 ACC 76.1 +1.9 5 5 21. North Carolina 5-2 25-6 ACC 75.7 -1.3 6 3 22. James Madison 6-2 28-3 SB 75.3 +0.8 6 5 23. Illinois 5-1 24-7 B10 75.0 +4.2 6 7 24. Creighton 6-1 24-7 BE 74.6 +10.7 6 8
The 5-seed line is remarkably stable but for the surge of Ohio State. The Buckeyes didn't do well in football but in roundball they gave 2-seed San Diego State a good run before losing 88-77, then beat Cincinnati and Texas Tech to improve their projected record from 20-9 to 23-8 and move from a 9-seed to a 5-seed. They play fellow 5-seed Duke on the road on Wednesday.
Going the opposite direction is 6-seed North Carolina. Does it already look like the gun was jumped by putting the Tar Heels at #1 in the AP poll? We'll just note that we (and the other quant prognosticators) were a bit more cautious in our pre-season ranking. UNC lost to unheralded Iowa State in the 2nd round of the Phil Knight Invitational, then lost in the 4-overtime marathon to Alabama. If they do what they did last year—have a mediocre regular season before a March Madness near-miracle—then those losses won't matter. They travel to 1-seed Indiana Wednesday to try and right the ship with their pride on the line.
Creighton is noteworthy for their 2 seed-line rise, as the Bluejays very nearly won the Maui Invitational last week. They beat Texas Tech and Arkansas before losing by 2 points to Arizona. It doesn't get easier soon for Creighton who takes on 1-seed Texas, currently ranked #1 in Pomeroy, on the road.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 25. Saint Mary's 6-1 25-5 WCC 74.2 +1.6 7 6 26. Arkansas 5-1 23-8 SEC 73.0 +21.8 7 11 27. Xavier 4-3 24-7 BE 71.8 +13.7 7 10 28. Michigan St. 5-2 20-11 B10 70.6 +2.1 7 7 29. Kansas 6-1 23-8 B12 69.4 -5.9 8 4 30. VCU 4-2 27-4 A10 68.1 -1.5 8 7 31. Utah St. 5-0 23-6 MWC 66.9 +21.5 8 12 32. Florida Atlantic 5-1 27-4 CUSA 65.7 +12.2 8 11
Arkansas and Xavier are the big movers on the 7-line. As noted above the Razorbacks were in the Maui Invitational, beating hapless Louisville (now 0-6) before losing to Creighton and rebounding with a win over San Diego State in overtime. The win over the 2-seed Aztecs is what caused their move from 11 to 7. Xavier moves from 10 to 7 despite two losses last week: 71-64 to Duke and 88-84 to Gonzaga. Both losses were close and now the Musketeers are only picked to lose 4 games from here on out (the decline of Villanova helped with that, too).
Mid-major surge: Utah State and Florida Atlantic both moved up from the bubble to the 8-seed line. The Aggies won a single game—beating Oral Roberts 95-85—but improved their outlook by two wins somehow. The Owls, too, won once (Albany 73-56), which was good enough to tilt a future game or two their way. Sometimes you just trust the algorithm and don't look behind the curtain too much.
It's much easier to see why Kansas's stock is falling, dropping them from a 4-seed to an 8-seed. The defending national champ Jayhawks really had a lousy time at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, holding off NC State by just 6 points, needing overtime to get by Wisconsin 69-68, and then getting bombarded by Tennessee 64-50; the Vols made 12 of 27 3's while Kansas made just 5 of 21. The Jayhawks' outlook went from 25-4 to 23-8 (the extra games were the 'revealed' tournament games)
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 33. Missouri St. 3-3 24-7 MVC 64.5 -8.5 9 6 34. Texas Tech 4-2 23-8 B12 63.3 +15.5 9 12 35. Southern Illinois 4-2 26-6 MVC 62.1 +19.5 9 13p 36. Memphis 4-2 24-7 Amer 60.9 +6.2 9 10 37. Sam Houston St. 6-0 26-5 WAC 59.7 +50.4 10 38. Dayton 3-4 24-7 A10 58.4 -13.9 10 6 39. UC Santa Barbara 4-1 28-3 BW 57.2 -10.1 10 8 40. Mississippi St. 6-0 24-7 SEC 56.0 +18.1 10
The 9-seeds are mostly mid-Major conference teams, and two are from the Missouri Valley: Missouri State is still the MVC favorite despite losing their first two games in the Baha Mar Hoops tournament in the Bahamas; the Bears fell to UNC Wilmington 68-54 and Ball State 67-64, and drop from a 6-seed to a 9-seed. Meanwhile Southern Illinois makes its case for being the best in the Valley, moving up from the bubble. The Salukis had a mixed week, losing to UNLV then beating Cal Baptist in overtime at the SoCal Challenge, but they gained in the future wins column—one of them courtesy of Missouri State, as they are now favored at home vs. the Bears.
Texas Tech also rises into the 9-line from the bubble. The Red Raiders went 1-2 in the Maui Invitational, beating Louisville between losses to Creighton and Ohio State. Since they beat the Cardinals 70-38, the close losses against two good teams didn't hurt them. Another Texas team, Sam Houston State, won the "Palms" division of the Fort Myers Tipoff with scores of 88-54 and 80-49 and come out of nowhere into the 10-seed line. The Bearkats now boast two neutral court wins to match their solid road wins over Oklahoma and Utah. Mississippi State also rises into the 10-seed line by winning in Fort Myers, as the Bulldogs won the "Beach" division by beating Marquette and Utah.
Dayton falls from a 6-seed to the 10 line after three losses in the Battle 4 Atlantis gave them a 3-4 start to the season. They Flyers lost to Wisconsin (by one point), NC State, and BYU (in overtime). Despite the disappointment they are expected to rebound to a 24-7 finish as one of the best Atlantic 10 teams.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 41. Charleston 6-1 28-3 CAA 54.8 +49.5 11 42. Grand Canyon 5-2 26-5 WAC 53.6 -18.4 11 7 43. Towson 7-1 27-4 CAA 52.4 -10.3 11 9 44. Furman 4-2 28-3 SC 51.2 +12.1 11 13 45. UC Irvine 6-1 27-5 BW 50.0 +44.1 12 46. UNLV 7-0 22-8 MWC 48.7 +15.4 12 47. Drake 6-0 24-7 MVC 47.5 +36.0 12 48. Nevada 6-1 21-10 MWC 46.3 +3.2 12 13p
It was reality check time for Grand Canyon, down to a 10-seed as a 7-seed seemed a bit lofty for the Antelopes. They lost to Wichita State and edged Northern Iowa 69-67 to claim 3rd place at the Hall of Fame classic. But jumping into the 11-line is Charleston of the Colonial Athletic who now looks to be 28-3 and presumably conference champs. The Cougars upset Kent State and have only lost to North Carolina.
Three mid-Major teams move from outside the tournament into a 12-seed. UC Irvine won the Las Vegas Holiday Classic beating Nicholls State 83-56 and New Mexico State 85-68; the Anteaters face 2-seed San Diego State next. UNLV beat Southern Illinois and Minnesota last week to win the SoCal Challenge tournament (they also beat Life Pacific, 126-54). Drake also remained unbeaten, winning the Paradise Jam in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 49. Iowa St. 5-1 18-13 B12 45.1 +12.9 13 50. Penn St. 6-1 20-11 B10 43.9 -0.4 13p 13 51. Maryland 6-0 17-14 B10 43.3 +12.3 13p 52. New Mexico 6-0 21-8 MWC 42.1 -6.8 13p 12 53. Western Kentucky 6-1 26-5 CUSA 40.9 -9.2 13p 11 54. Kent St. 5-2 24-6 MAC 39.7 +24.7 13 55. Seton Hall 4-3 20-11 BE 38.5 -22.0 9 56. Colorado 4-3 19-12 P12 37.2 +1.6 57. Iona 2-2 25-4 MAAC 36.0 +24.8 14 14 58. Cincinnati 4-3 24-7 Amer 34.8 -11.8 12 59. West Virginia 6-1 15-16 B12 33.6 +19.8
And now the bubble: After Iowa State's phenomenal weekend, where the Cyclones beat Villanova in overtime and upset North Carolina before falling to UConn at the PK85, you'd think they'd be higher than a 13-seed. But the Big Twelve is unforgiving and the Cyclones' outlook for the season slog didn't change much. Still, they're in on the bubble as a 13-seed, as are Maryland (who won the Hall of Fame Tipoff Tournament by crushing St. Louis and Miami) and Kent State (who lost twice last week but played Houston so well on the road that their season's outlook went up from 22-8 to 24-6).
First four out: Seton Hall drops from a 9-seed after losing to Oklahoma and Siena at the ESPN Events Invitational; Cincinnati was a 12-seed last week but fared poorly at the Maui Invitational, losing to Arizona and Ohio State (by 28) before beating 0-6 Louisville 81-62. Colorado pretty much treaded water under the bubble with a win over Yale. West Virginia played well in Portland; after losing to Purdue they rebounded to beat Portland State and Florida, but still project to around .500 with their tough Big 12 schedule.
Opportunities: Seton Hall can get a big win at 8-seed Kansas on Thursday, while a win over ASU (also below the bubble) would help the Buffaloes. West Virginia travels to 7-seed Xavier on Saturday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 60. Michigan 5-1 18-13 B10 32.4 -23.4 10 62. Murray St. 3-3 22-8 MVC 30.0 -22.4 11 64. Toledo 4-2 24-6 MAC 27.5 -51.0 2 66. Jacksonville 3-1 24-5 ASun 25.1 -9.4 14 14 67. Villanova 2-5 20-11 BE 23.9 -35.4 9 70. St. John's 7-0 21-10 BE 20.3 -36.7 10 73. USC 4-3 19-12 P12 16.6 -24.8 13p
The graveyard: Ok, it's a bit too early to say these teams have fallen off the cliff but they were seeded last week and dropped out. Let's start with the biggest fall: Toledo. Unrealistically set for a 2-seed last week, we said we knew it wouldn't last bit didn't think it would happen so fast or so dramatically. The Rockets were projected 29-1 by strict favorite/underdog accounting last week but now they're 24-6 thanks to losing to two mediocre teams, UMKC and East Carolina at the Gulf Coast Showcase tournament. Our pre-season ranking of the Rockets, combined with a great win over UAB and an easy MAC schedule, pumped their projected record up to unattainable heights. This is roughly where they belong, given the recent losses.
Another team dropping out is Villanova, off to a 2-5 start under new coach Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats dropped all three of their PK85 (whichever one it was) tournament games, losing to Iowa State in overtime, then to Portland and Oregon as frustration seems to be setting in. Props to the BPI I guess for downgrading Villanova due to the coaching change in their pre-season formula. There's lots of time to turn things around but it's looking like a 20-11 record in the Big East (or 21-10 like St. John's) won't cut it this year. The Red Storm are 7-0 now but it might be the league is weaker this year and that's keeping teams down.
Michigan, Murray State, and USC all fell out. The Wolverines barely beat lowly Jackson State last Wednesday and this week? They face 3-seed Virginia and 4-2-seed Kentucky. It's all opportunity I suppose since they're expected to lose both. Murray State lost at Chattanooga and now are just 3-3 to start. And the Trojans went 1-2 at the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/20) 78. Bryant 5-1 24-5 AE 12.4 +2.8 14 15 79. Wyoming 3-3 18-12 MWC 12.1 -28.2 13p 88. Oral Roberts 4-3 24-6 Sum 9.3 -2.5 14 14 103. Yale 6-1 21-6 Ivy 5.6 +1.3 15 124. Colgate 5-4 26-5 Pat 5.1 -0.9 15 15 125. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 4-3 26-5 Slnd 5.0 -7.1 15 14 129. Cornell 5-1 21-6 Ivy 4.9 +0.3 16p 130. Wright St. 5-2 24-7 Horz 4.9 -0.4 15 15 151. UNC Asheville 4-2 22-9 BSth 4.4 -0.3 16 153. Longwood 4-3 22-9 BSth 4.3 -0.7 16 154. Southern 2-4 21-9 SWAC 4.3 -1.0 16 15 160. Norfolk St. 5-2 24-6 MEAC 4.1 -0.6 16p 16p 162. Tennessee Martin 3-4 23-8 OVC 4.1 +0.1 16p 16p 167. Montana St. 3-5 21-9 BSky 3.9 -1.3 16p 16 195. Wagner 4-2 24-3 NEC 3.2 -1.0 16p 16p
Conference Champs: Wyoming was the Mountain West favorite until they lost to both Drake and Boston College in St. Thomas. Meanwhile Yale nabbed the Ivy League title (for now) from Cornell, despite losing to Colorado. The Bulldogs kept that game close enough on the road (65-62) that when added to a 73-44 win over Vermont, their fortunes improved enough to pass the Big Red, who won twice.
And it's very close but our designated Big South winner is UNC Asheville. Apparently the Bulldogs' 73-61 win over Western Carolina was more impressive than Longwood's 112-60 demolition of Mary Baldwin. Beating an individual by 52 just isn't fair anyway, especially one who has been deceased for over 100 years.
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