It's never too early to start seeding the teams for March madness, and anyway it's a good way to review what's happened in the first week of college basketball in the 2022-2023 season. Looking at the state of our Dance Chance and seeing which teams made big moves—up or down—here is the recap of Week One:
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 1. Indiana 2-0 30-1 B10 78.3 +2.8 1 1 2. Gonzaga 2-0 30-1 WCC 77.9 +2.1 1 1 3. Kentucky 2-0 29-2 SEC 77.6 +2.5 1 1 4. Kansas 2-0 26-3 B12 77.2 +3.9 1 2 5. Houston 2-0 31-1 Amer 76.8 +4.9 2 3 6. Texas 2-0 28-3 B12 76.5 +3.5 2 3 7. Baylor 2-0 27-3 B12 76.1 +3.9 2 3 8. North Carolina 2-0 26-3 ACC 75.7 +1.3 2 2
Indiana was a 1-seed in our pre-season Dance Chance but only #6 in our pre-season power rating. They're already up to #2 in Strength and have taken over as overall #1 seed in the Dance Chance by beating two overmatched teams. Meanwhile Gonzaga barely beat Michigan State, 64-63, which contributed to their drop to #2, though they hold a 1-seed comfortably; they travel to Texas for the only game in which they are underdog at this point, and then meet Kentucky on Sunday for a battle of (very early) projected Final Four teams. Kansas joins the elite group despite a lukewarm start; their rise depended more on the fall of San Diego State and others. They play Duke this week which will test their seeding.
Houston, Texas, and Baylor also moved up a seed with gains in Strength; as mentioned, Texas hosts Gonzaga on Wednesday and is favored, though a loss won't hurt them. Meanwhile Baylor is favored at 3-seed Virginia this coming Friday. North Carolina didn't set the world on fire last week with two mediocre wins, especially the 69-56 win over UNC Wilmington. The projections for the first week of Dance Chance are still based 88.4% on our pre-season rankings, but a poor win hurts when you're trying to be one of the very top teams.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 9. Auburn 2-0 27-3 SEC 75.4 +1.4 3 2 10. Virginia 2-0 26-3 ACC 75.0 +1.3 3 2 11. Villanova 1-1 27-2 BE 74.7 +3.5 3 4 12. UCLA 2-0 29-2 P12 74.3 +4.6 3 5 13. San Diego St. 2-0 26-2 MWC 73.9 -0.8 4 1 14. Arizona 2-0 27-2 P12 73.6 +3.2 4 4 15. Saint Louis 2-0 28-3 A10 73.2 +1.7 4 4 16. Duke 2-0 26-3 ACC 72.9 +4.2 4 6
The early play of Auburn and Virginia wasn't the best; Auburn beat South Florida by 8, the Cavaliers topped NC Central by just 12. In each case it was enough to increase their projected losses by 1 and drop them from 2-seeds to 3-seeds. Virginia can get the 2-seed back with a win over Baylor on Friday. Perplexingly, Villanova moved up a seed line despite an upset loss at Temple, and they're still only underdog in one other game. UCLA earned their 2-seed jump with two steady, dominant wins.
The team that dropped the most was San Diego State, a pre-season 1-seed despite only starting at #32 in Strength for the pre-season. Originally projected to go 27-1, they've already added another "future loss" which knocks them down quite a bit, since their SOS in the Mountain West isn't the greatest. And Duke is up two seeds already, from 6 to 4, with dominant wins. The Blue Devils are only underdogs in three games, including Kansas on Tuesday.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 17. Tennessee 1-1 25-4 SEC 72.5 -0.1 5 3 18. Dayton 2-0 27-4 A10 72.1 +2.0 5 5 19. VCU 2-0 27-3 A10 71.8 +2.8 5 5 20. UAB 1-1 28-2 CUSA 71.4 +2.0 5 5 21. Alabama 2-0 23-7 SEC 71.0 +3.1 6 6 22. UC Santa Barbara 2-0 31-1 BW 70.7 +26.0 6 12 23. Toledo 2-0 27-3 MAC 70.3 +37.6 6 24. James Madison 3-0 27-3 SB 70.0 +15.1 6 10
Tennessee was upset by Colorado 78-66 and falls 2 seed lines because of it. At this stage we don't know whether that was a fluke, or the Vols are overrated and will continue to fall. Maybe Colorado is just that good? We'll take a look at the Buffs later on. On the 6-seed line there are three big movers: UC Santa Barbara, jumping from a 12-seed; Toledo, coming in from left field; and James Madison, up from a 10-seed. UCSB upset Fresno State and now is favored in all but one game on their slate. Toledo upset 5-seed UAB and while it didn't affect the Blazers much at all to have the extra loss, the extra win over a ranked foe really helped the Rockets. And James Madison won three games in dominant fashion which propped their Strength up from 129 to 81 and put their projection at 27-3.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 25. Ohio St. 2-0 21-8 B10 69.6 +30.8 7 13p 26. Wyoming 2-1 24-5 MWC 68.5 -2.3 7 4 27. Xavier 2-0 23-7 BE 67.4 -0.9 7 6 28. Michigan 2-0 22-8 B10 66.3 +7.3 7 9 29. Iowa 2-0 23-7 B10 65.2 +5.2 8 8 30. Illinois 2-0 23-7 B10 64.2 +6.2 8 9 31. Purdue 2-0 23-6 B10 63.1 +2.0 8 8 32. Seton Hall 2-0 22-7 BE 62.0 +21.1 8 13p
Ohio State played solidly enough that they tipped their future game with San Diego State in their favor, giving the Buckeyes a huge extra win and taking them off the early-season bubble up to a 7-seed. Seton Hall makes a similar move to an 8-seed, as they move their projection from 20-9 to 22-7. Meanwhile Wyoming's loss to SE Louisiana knocked their projection down two wins and three seeds. A mess of Big Ten teams occupies the early 7s and 8s; Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois hang out on the 8-line while Michigan leaps to a 7-seed despite a really shaky 88-83 win over Eastern Michigan. Sometimes these algorithms have minds of their own.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 33. Towson 3-0 29-2 CAA 60.9 +17.3 9 12 34. Memphis 1-0 22-7 Amer 59.8 +3.9 9 9 35. Cincinnati 3-0 25-5 Amer 58.7 -3.4 9 8 36. Arkansas 2-0 20-9 SEC 57.6 +10.9 9 12 37. Connecticut 2-0 22-7 BE 56.5 +2.6 10 10 38. USC 1-1 23-6 P12 55.4 -7.7 10 8 39. Grand Canyon 2-1 27-3 WAC 54.4 +12.8 10 13 40. Creighton 2-0 21-8 BE 53.3 +3.5 10 11
Towson from the Colonial Athletic is a darling of some prognosticators, and they move up 3 seeds early on in ours. The Tigers went 3-0 including an upset of UMass that puts them at an idealized 29-2 for the year. Arkansas made the same rise—12-seed to 9-seed—without getting an upset, but doing well enough to improve their future from 19-10 to 20-9. Grand Canyon lost at Nevada as expected and that didn't hurt their outlook, in fact they move up quite a bit (algorithms, again...). The loser in this pack was USC, who we ranked higher (#19) in the pre-season than anyone else. The Trojans lost their opener to Florida Gulf Coast 74-61 and drop 2 seeds. We're not giving up on them after two games—young teams take time to develop—but may eventually have to admit the others were more accurate in their assessment.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 41. Saint Mary's 3-0 22-8 WCC 52.2 +9.6 11 13 42. Missouri St. 1-0 24-5 MVC 51.1 -5.9 11 9 43. St. John's 2-0 23-7 BE 50.0 -0.8 11 11 44. Texas Tech 2-0 21-8 B12 48.9 -4.0 11 10 45. Virginia Tech 3-0 21-8 ACC 47.8 -18.4 12 7 46. Penn St. 2-0 20-9 B10 46.7 +20.2 12 47. Oral Roberts 1-1 25-5 Sum 45.7 -19.5 12 7 48. Furman 2-0 29-2 SC 44.6 +12.9 12 14
A bunch of teams in this group fell quite a bit. Missouri State only played one game, against a non-D-I foe, so that didn't affect their outlook. But they play in the Mountain West, home of San Diego State, whose outlook dropped. The Bears are collateral damage as their SOS drops, and that alone dumps them from a 9-seed to an 11-seed. Despite winning three games Virginia Tech fell from a 7-seed to a 12-seed as they "lost" their "future win" at home over Duke! Oral Roberts is the only team of the bunch who actually lost a game, and it wasn't a bad loss, 8 points on the road to St. Mary's. But good play by two of their future opponents turned their 27-3 record into 25-5; sometimes it's not what you do, but what the other teams do.
Speaking of Saint Mary's, they moved up 2 seeds on the strength of 3 wins, the aforementioned win over Oral Roberts but in particular the 63-33 drubbing of North Texas. Penn State moves into the lineup with two wins; caught in the tough Big Ten, the Nittany Lions looked like they might get lost in the shuffle but we now project them to win 20 games (before the Big Ten tournament). Furman plays Penn State next, and it's one of only two losses we see for them (in an ideal world). The Paladins make their way into at-large territory but that requires they go 29-2! So without a Southern Conference title they're probably out of luck.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 49. Notre Dame 2-0 24-7 ACC 43.5 -20.6 13 7 50. St. Thomas * 2-1 27-4 Sum 42.4 +36.8 51. Ohio 1-1 26-5 MAC 41.7 +5.9 13 14 52. Michigan St. 1-1 16-13 B10 40.6 +12.0 13 53. Fresno St. 1-1 22-8 MWC 39.6 +9.0 13p 54. Miami FL 2-0 22-8 ACC 38.5 -13.3 13p 10 55. Texas A&M 2-0 18-11 SEC 37.4 -0.4 14p 13p 56. Colorado 2-1 17-12 P12 36.3 +27.8 14p
Notre Dame started off pretty high in our Dance Chance, due to their #28 Strength. That's already fallen to #46 and their expected seed drops with it, from 7- to 13. Two awful games—79-76 over Radford, and 88-81 over Youngstown, both at home—make it look like the AP voters were right to ignore them (they got one vote total). Miami didn't impress either but at least they won by double digits over Lafayette and UNC Greensboro, and it didn't affect their W-L projection. Michigan State's strong showing vs. Gonzaga, even though they took the (expected) L, moves them into the lineup. Also moving in despite losses are Fresno State and Colorado; the Bulldogs lost to UCSB but it didn't hurt them, while Colorado lost to Grambling but then upset Tennessee! It looks like the big win carried more weight than the bad loss for the Buffs, but it does make it look like the Vols might be overrated.
St. Thomas, a provisional D-I team, is suddenly looking like a bubble team. They played well at Creighton, battling back for a late tie before losing by 12, and won two other games, but even if they manage a 27-4 record against their easy schedule it will be for naught as they are ineligible during their transition to D-I.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 57. Mississippi St. 3-0 21-9 SEC 35.2 +12.8 58. Boise St. 1-1 20-9 MWC 34.1 -33.5 6 59. George Mason 2-1 23-6 A10 33.0 +8.5 60. BYU 1-1 22-7 WCC 31.9 -8.0 13p 61. Jacksonville 1-1 25-4 ASun 30.9 +16.0 14 14 62. Vermont 1-2 23-6 AE 29.8 -37.4 14 7 68. TCU 2-0 20-11 B12 23.2 -25.6 11 69. Oklahoma 1-1 16-13 B12 22.1 -25.6 11 70. Murray St. 1-1 22-6 MVC 21.1 -24.6 12
Now we're below the bubble: the first four out are Mississippi State, Boise State, George Mason, and BYU. Of these, Boise was firmly in according to our pre-season list, while BYU fell off the bubble. The Broncos lost to South Dakota State at home while the Cougars played well at San Diego State but fell out anyway. Vermont also fell a lot—7 seeds!—but they hang on because they're still the top-rated American East team and are the assumed automatic bid. Projected 25-4—in a perfect world—they suffered two losses already, one of them an upset to Cal-Fullerton in overtime. Now we're projecting they will lose their next two games, to USC and Iona, and go 23-6 instead of 25-4.
Skipping a bit further down we see three other teams that fell out. TCU went 2-0 as everyone expected but no one thought they'd need a huge comeback to beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a single point, and follow that up with a tepid 11-point win over Lamar. The Horned Frogs are acting like the football team with their close games and comebacks. Former 11-seed Oklahoma had the game won vs. Sam Houston State but the Bearkats rallied at the end and a last-second 3 pointer gave them the win. The Sooners also had trouble putting away Pine Bluff, maybe the #347 Golden Lions are a team to watch? And Murray State shows how the non-Major conferences can't take too many losses or be left out; their loss to St. Louis was expected but their projection fell from 23-5 to 22-6 and that's not good enough even coming from the pretty solid Missouri Valley.
Rank Team Curr Proj Conf %Odds %Chg Seed Prev(11/06) 83. Iona 1-1 24-5 MAAC 12.1 +0.4 14 14 101. Texas A&M Corpus Chris 1-1 27-4 Slnd 6.3 +0.5 15 15 117. Wright St. 1-1 26-5 Horz 5.9 0.0 15 124. Colgate 2-1 26-5 Pat 5.7 -0.9 15 15 126. Howard 2-2 23-6 MEAC 5.7 -3.1 15 15 143. Wagner 1-1 24-3 NEC 5.2 +0.5 16 16p 147. Montana St. 1-1 22-8 BSky 5.1 +0.6 16 16p 148. Cornell 1-1 19-8 Ivy 5.1 -0.5 16p 16 152. Oakland 1-2 20-9 Horz 5.0 -1.4 15 155. Longwood 1-2 24-8 BSth 4.9 -0.8 16p 16 163. Southern 0-2 20-9 SWAC 4.7 +0.1 16p 16p
Finally we look at the auto-bids. Not much changed at all as it takes pretty big moves to change these teams which are spaced pretty far apart. But note that Wright State took over as the top team in the Horizon League when Oakland suffered two losses. One loss—to Oklahoma State—was expected, but the loss to Bowling Green was not. And the Cowboys weren't supposed to beat Oakland by almost 30 points in their own house, either. Wright State didn't have a great week on paper—their odds stayed the same at 5.9% for an at-large bid, and they went 1-1—but the Raiders took Davidson into double overtime before falling, and then got a huge upset of Louisville on the road.
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