All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 33-6
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 8
Record: 29-9
Conference: ACC
Date: Monday, April 4
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA
Channel: TBS
First time since 1985, it's a 1-seed vs. an 8-seed in the national championship game. That time, the 8-seed won.
Kansas North Carolina
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #22
Median: #3 Median: #17
Markov: #3 Markov: #16
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #16
Offense: #6 Offense: #18
Defense: #17 Defense: #39
BPI: #6 BPI: #19
LRMC: #5 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #44 Tempo (Offense): #96
Consistency: #118 Consistency: #351
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #24
Last 5 games: #3 Last 5 games: #1
The last time a 1-seed faced an 8-seed in the final it was Georgetown vs. Villanova. The Hoyas had already beaten the Wildcats twice that season and the conclusion seemed foregone. But Villanova played a perfect game and came up with the upset, one that was way bigger than a Tar Heel win would be in this case.
North Carolina's numbers have "advanced" over the last 5 games to resemble a 4- or 5-seed more than an 8-seed. The un-updated LRMC ranking of #35 reflects the "old" Tar Heels squad, while Kansas remains mostly unchanged. Though the Tar Heels offense appears to be a challenge to Kansas, their defense still lags at #39, but then again they did pretty good against Duke's high-rated offense.
Over the course of the tournament the Tar Heels are the best team on average; Kansas is #3. It's a pretty narrow edge and a lot has to do with North Carolina's first blowout win over Marquette; after that they played 4 very good, consistent games, a shocker for the 351st most-consistent team.
When are they due for a bad game? At this point the "consistency" stat doesn't mean much, since it's meant to be applied to a range of games. As in, can an inconsistent team hold up over a 4 or 5 game stretch? Since UNC has already done that, it's not really appropriate to use the Consistency ranking to judge their next game. All it says is, yes, they might have a bad game, or a good game. Kansas is more of a known quantity.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(7)Michigan St.+13, (11)Iowa St.+1, (3)Texas Tech+OT, @(11)Iowa St.+9, (1)Baylor+24, (9)TCU+4, (6)Texas+OT, (9)TCU+13, (3)Texas Tech+9, =(16)Texas Southern+27, =(9)Creighton+7, =(4)Providence+5, =(10)Miami FL+26, =(2)Villanova+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): (11)Iowa St.+1, (3)Texas Tech+OT, @(11)Iowa St.+9, (3)Texas Tech+9, =(4)Providence+5, =(10)Miami FL+26, =(2)Villanova+16
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(2)Villanova+16
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(3)Texas Tech-8, (2)Kentucky-18, @(6)Texas-3, @(1)Baylor-10, @(9)TCU-10
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(3)Texas Tech-8
- Losses to Final Four (0): None
- Other losses (1): =Dayton-1
Overview: Kansas always plays a tough schedule, but surprisingly their only tourney-team victim of the pre-conference season was 7-seed Michigan State in the opener. They lost to Dayton, too, but continued rolling along into the Big Twelve season racking up 8 big wins and only losing to 3-seed Texas Tech, 6-seed Texas, 1-seed Baylor, and 9-seed TCU in conference play. They also lost to 2-seed Kentucky at home, big—80-62, a game which is a big reason for their "2nd half of season" slide to #8 (it has since recovered to #3). (Similarly, the slide to #12 in "Last 6 games" was due to one bad loss. They're #2 now that it's rolled off the map.) Kansas recovered from a rare 2-game skid to win the Big Twelve tournament in impressive fashion to earn their 1-seed.
The Jayhawks play decent defense but it's their offense that shines. They do the basics well—shooting and rebounding—with an emphasis on 2-point shots. Four players average double figures led by 1st team All-American Ochai Agbaji's 19.7ppg. It was reserve guard Remy Martin who led with 15 against Texas Southern, however; he also led against Creighton with 20, playing 29 minutes. Martin also led against Providence with 23. Agbaji had 18 against Miami as the Jayhawks swamped the Hurricanes in the 2nd half en route to a 76-50 blowout.
The Jayhawks took control in the first half against Villanova and after a Wildcat run in the 2nd half, put them away for good in the final minutes. David McCormack led with 25 points on 10 of 12 shooting.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (11)Michigan+21, (11)Virginia Tech+10, @(11)Virginia Tech+8, @(2)Duke+13, =(9)Marquette+32, =(1)Baylor+OT, =(4)UCLA+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+20, =(2)Duke+4
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (11)Michigan+21, @(2)Duke+13, =(4)UCLA+7, =(15)Saint Peter's+20, =(2)Duke+4
- Wins vs. Final Four (2): @(2)Duke+13, =(2)Duke+4
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(3)Purdue-9, =(3)Tennessee-17, =(2)Kentucky-29, @(11)Notre Dame-5, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20, =(11)Virginia Tech-13
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(3)Purdue-9, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20
- Losses to Final Four (1): (2)Duke-20
- Other losses (2): @Wake Forest-22, Pittsburgh-9
Overview: North Carolina's low Consistency ranking comes from the fact that every five games or so, they collapse and have a terrible performance. And conversely, every 5 games or so they play at a quite high level. Normally only good enough to beat a number of 11-seeds—Michigan, Virginia Tech twice—the Tar Heels upped their game to thrash Duke on the road. But they also managed to lose in a big way to Duke and Kentucky by 20+ points, and even Miami and Wake Forest by similar amounts.
North Carolina's defense isn't great but they do one thing really well, and that is rebound. On offense they're top 25 level without really doing anything great; they just shoot pretty well, rebound decently, and don't turn over the ball. Four players average double figures led by Armando Bacot, who also gathers an incredible 12.5 rebounds per game. But it was Brady Manek who came up big against Marquette with 28 points and 11 rebounds in the 95-63 thrashing of Marquette, probably their best game of the season. Next game, of course, they got probably their biggest win of the season, knocking off 1-seed Baylor 93-86 in double overtime; RJ Davis had 30 points. Caleb Love poured in 30 points against UCLA, and Bacot had 20 points in the 69=49 stuffing of St. Peter's along with 22 rebounds.
The instant-classic game vs. Duke didn't disappoint as it went back and forth the entire time. In the end it was Love's 28 points and Bacot's 21 rebounds that made the difference as they ended Coach K's career, 81-77.
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Game Analysis: This 1-seed vs. 8-seed doesn't really compare to the 1985 game. For one thing, these aren't teams in the same conference who have played each other twice already. And Kansas is no Georgetown, let's face it: the Hoyas were far and away the favorite to win the 1985 tournament from the start, while Kansas is just one of many teams people envisioned could be in the final. If anything, they were a weaker 1-seed, the only 1-seed not in the top 4 of any of the power ratings we survey.
And North Carolina is no Villanova. In the one-and-done era the idea of an 8-seed having the talent to push through to the Final Four is not as big of a shock as it was back then. Georgetown had to be a bit overconfident going in against a team they'd beaten twice (though only by 2 and 7 points), and then Villanova played a pretty much flawless game that any team would be hard-pressed to duplicate, shooting a staggering 79% from the floor. So let's throw that comparison away.
As we said in the numbers section, North Carolina's inconsistency is an idea best applied across several games, not a single game. They're no more "due" for a bad game than a coin is "due" for a certain flip after so many in a row. But there's another matter which makes me think they're going to have a letdown.
North Carolina just played a bigger game than the national championship: they played arch-rival Duke in the Final Four, in the two teams' first meeting ever in the tournament, and they won, ending their career of their nemesis, Coach K.
For North Carolina fans, it doesn't get bigger than that. Not even a national championship tops that. Yeah, winning the national title would be icing on the cake but even if they lose, no big deal—fans will remember the previous game forever.
It's true, for the players it might be different, but there's still bound to be an issue with coming down from that high. Kansas has no such issue, and they can focus on the prize.
Armando Bacot's ankle rolled late in the Duke game but he came back to play within minutes; it probably won't be a big factor in the title game but if it's even a slight issue that hurts the Tar Heels.
Vegas Line:
Kansas by 4
Power rating: spread
Kansas by 6.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 65.6%
North Carolina: 34.4%
Tournament performance (last 5 games):
Kansas: 48%
North Carolina: 52%
North Carolina by 0.9
Vegas has Kansas a slim favorite; we see them winning about 2 of 3 times. The tournament performance is very close, almost 50/50, which you would expect from the two teams who made it this far. North Carolina's best game of the tournament was their first, against Marquette, while Kansas' best performances have been their last two.
Bottom line: North Carolina either carries the Duke-game momentum forward or they have a letdown against a team they don't hate nearly as much, and don't know remotely as well. It's hard to keep the brilliance turned on 24/7, and I think UNC's bulb finally burns out.
Final prediction: Kansas 84, North Carolina 71
More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.