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UCLA Bruins
Seed: 4
Record: 27-7
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 8
Record: 26-9
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:39 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Channel: CBS
March Madness Lament: I picked UNC to upset 1-seed Baylor last year and was a year early. Can the Tar Heels keep it going against UCLA?
UCLA North Carolina
Power Ratings
Strength: #11 Strength: #28
Median: #11 Median: #21
Markov: #12 Markov: #24
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #22
Offense: #12 Offense: #21
Defense: #14 Defense: #44
BPI: #11 BPI: #21
LRMC: #12 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #249 Tempo (Offense): #87
SOS: #30 SOS: #37
Consistency: #49 Consistency: #355
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #30
Last 6 [-best]: #16 [#15] Last 6 [-best]: #3 [#5]
UCLA still looks like a strong 4-seed, and North Carolina is starting to rate like a really good 8-seed. Beating a 1-seed will do that. They're in the 20s now in all the power ratings except LRMC which doesn't update.
There will be a bit of a tempo clash as UCLA is measured on offense while North Carolina is fast. Not as fast as they used to be known for, but still on the quick side. The real "clash" is consistency. UCLA plays pretty much the same game to game while North Carolina is one of the most unpredictable teams, 4th most unpredictable to be exact. Their last 2 games have pushed them to a new level of uncertainty. Lucky for them, they were both upside outliers. That makes their Last 6 Games ranking a bit hard to swallow: how do we know they don't have a downside game next? But 4 of their last 5 games have been among their best of the season, so they're in new territory. UCLA isn't playing their very best but they're getting the job done, and their previous game was one of their best, too.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (2)Villanova+OT, @(9)Marquette+11, (1)Arizona+16, (7)USC+7, =(7)USC+10, =(13)Akron+4, =(5)Saint Mary's+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (2)Villanova+OT, (1)Arizona+16
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(1)Gonzaga-20, @(1)Arizona-10, @(7)USC-3, =(1)Arizona-8
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Gonzaga-20, @(1)Arizona-10, =(1)Arizona-8
- Other losses (3): Oregon-OT, @Arizona St.-OT, @Oregon-5
Overview: UCLA is one of those rare teams that didn't play a terrible game; even their losses aren't bad performances. They have wins over a 1-seed (Arizona) and a 2-seed (Villanova) and three of their 7 losses are to 1-seeds Gonzaga and Arizona (twice). Two of the others are overtime losses. They just didn't ever play an objectively bad game.
UCLA's defense doesn't really excel at anything in particular, they just do everything pretty well. And on offense the Bruins avoid turnovers and shoot the ball well. Four starters average in double figures for the Bruins, and all four of them averaged double figures last year for UCLA, too—that's something you don't see too often any more. Johnny Juzang leads the team with 16.0 points per game; Jaime Jacques is #2 with 14.0 and leads with 5.8 rebounds; Jules Bernard is #3 with 12.8; and PG Tyger Campbell adds 11.5 and leads with 4.2 assists. Against Akron the Bruins were down with 5 minutes left but a 10-2 run saved their tournament; Tyger Campbell led with 16, including 8 clutch points that put them ahead for good. Campbell also led against St. Mary's with 16 again, 8 for 8 on free throws as the Bruins shot 84% as a team.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (11)Michigan+21, (11)Virginia Tech+10, @(11)Virginia Tech+8, @(2)Duke+13, =(9)Marquette+32, =(1)Baylor+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (11)Michigan+21, @(2)Duke+13
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(3)Purdue-9, =(3)Tennessee-17, =(2)Kentucky-29, @(11)Notre Dame-5, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20, =(11)Virginia Tech-13
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(3)Purdue-9, @(10)Miami FL-28, (2)Duke-20
- Other losses (2): @Wake Forest-22, Pittsburgh-9
Overview: North Carolina's low Consistency ranking comes from the fact that every five games or so, they collapse and have a terrible performance. And conversely, every 5 games or so they play at a quite high level. Normally only good enough to beat a number of 11-seeds—Michigan, Virginia Tech twice—the Tar Heels upped their game to thrash Duke on the road. But they also managed to lose in a big way to Duke and Kentucky by 20+ points, and even Miami and Wake Forest by similar amounts.
North Carolina's defense isn't great but they do one thing really well, and that is rebound. On offense they're top 25 level without really doing anything great; they just shoot pretty well, rebound decently, and don't turn over the ball. Four players average double figures led by Armando Bacot, who also gathers an incredible 12.5 rebounds per game. But it was Brady Manek who came up big against Marquette with 28 points and 11 rebounds in the 95-63 thrashing of Marquette, probably their best game of the season. Next game, of course, they got probably their biggest win of the season, knocking off 1-seed Baylor 93-86 in double overtime; RJ Davis had 30 points.
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Game Analysis: What we have here is a very steady, gets the job done team vs. one that either wins big or fails spectacularly. Maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration but look at North Carolina's last 6 games in reverse order: (1) Beat 1-seed Baylor; (2) Beat Marquette by 32 points. Those are two of the best performances you could ask for. But before that (3) lost to Virginia Tech 72-59. Not so hot. Prior to that, though: (4) beat Virginia 63-43; (5) beat Duke at Duke 94-81. Again, two amazing games. Yet just before that, they needed overtime to (6) beat Syracuse at home.
The lesson here is that North Carolina is unpredictable. It's also the case that they're on a run of sorts, raising their game to a new level. Still very inconsistent, but overall probably peaking based on the fact that 4 of their 7 best performances of the year have been in the last 5 games. The question is can that last? Does the break between the 2nd round and the Sweet Sixteen cool them off?
On offense North Carolina shoots well and UCLA defends equally well, per their effective field goal percentages. It's a very even matchup. When UCLA is on offense is where they have the efficiency edge, #12 to #44. They won't worry much about turnovers—they're top 5 in avoiding them while UNC is bottom ten in causing them—but UNC defends basically as well as UCLA shoots, and they're also the #2 rebounding defense in the country. Nor do they foul a lot. UCLA's edge here looks minimal by the stats, and overall the game looks close. Surprise!
Vegas Line:
UCLA by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
UCLA by 5.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UCLA: 61.8%
UNC: 38.2%
Recent game performance (last 6):
UCLA: 36%
UNC: 64%
UNC by 4.3
Vegas is sticking with UCLA, but their line is unusually low compared to the Strength power rating, suggesting about a point of modification for North Carolina's great recent play. Note that the oddsmakers always stick with full-season performance first, and maybe adjust a bit for recent play. Recent play is something to consider if you're looking to pick more likely upsets on your bracket, not something to trust if you place money!
UCLA's 62% chance to win is well above the historical rate for 4-seeds against 8-seeds, which is 44%. Yes, the 8-seed normally wins, but it's only happened 9 times, with the 4-seed winning 4 of the 9. So it's not exactly an established pattern. It's going to take a while, too, since 8-seeds have made the Sweet Sixteen only 14 times in the past, and 5 of those times they met a 5 (twice), 12 (twice), or even a 13-seed (once).
Recent performance gives the edge to North Carolina of course, as they're lighting up the court right now.
Bottom line: I had UCLA beating Baylor at this juncture so I'm sticking with the Bruins, who have direct experience fighting their way toward the Final Four. Slow and steady win the race, right?
Final prediction: UCLA 73, North Carolina 70
More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.
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