All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule
Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 28-7
Conference: Big East
vs.
Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 11
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 7:29 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: San Antonio, TX
Channel: TBS
A replay of the 2018 national championship game; this time only the Elite Eight as at stake.
Villanova Michigan
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #25
Median: #9 Median: #42
Markov: #11 Markov: #51
Pomeroy: #11 Pomeroy: #28
Offense: #8 Offense: #19
Defense: #30 Defense: #76
BPI: #7 BPI: #25
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #40
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #348 Tempo (Offense): #186
SOS: #8 SOS: #2
Consistency: #213 Consistency: #350
2nd half season: #11 2nd half season: #21
Last 6 [-best]: #12 [#6] Last 6 [-best]: #16 [#13]
Villanova scores better across the board, which makes sense as Michigan is just an 11-seed. The one consolation for Michigan in the full-season numbers (the power ratings) is that their Offense ranks better than Villanova's defense. They just need to compensate for the fact that Villanova has a top ten Offense and their own Defense is outside the top 50 by a lot.
The Wildcats play a super-slow tempo on offense while Michigan is about average. One area they have completely in common is a tough schedule; both are in the top ten in SOS. The fact that Villanova has half as many losses as Michigan is why they're a 2-seed and Michigan isn't. Also, Michigan's #2 SOS is the only reason they made the field in the first place at 17-14 going in.
Consistency is the big factor here. Michigan is one of the ten least consistent teams in the country, and what we've seen over the past few games is their upside. Their downside frequently strikes without warning (but normally, every 2 or 3 games) so the question is how they're going to avoid having that happen. Villanova isn't the most consistent team either, but lately they have been. With Michigan's two big tournament wins they're pretty close to playing at Villanova's level, but still just shy
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(3)Tennessee+18, @(8)Seton Hall+6, (9)Creighton+34, (5)Connecticut+11, (8)Seton Hall+6, @(4)Providence+5, (4)Providence+2, =(5)Connecticut+3, =(9)Creighton+6, =(15)Delaware+20, =(7)Ohio St.+10
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)Providence+5, (4)Providence+2
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(4)UCLA-OT, =(3)Purdue-6, @(1)Baylor-21, @(9)Creighton-20, (9)Marquette-3, @(9)Marquette-10, @(5)Connecticut-2
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (2): @(4)UCLA-OT, =(3)Purdue-6
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Villanova played one of the toughest schedules in the country, with four big names on their non-conference slate. They lost to 4-seed UCLA in overtime, beat 3-seed Tennessee by 18 points, lost to 3-seed Purdue and 1-seed Baylor. And that was just in their first 10 games! After that they settled in to the Big East schedule where they went 2-1 vs. both 9-seed Creighton and 5-seed UConn, 2-0 vs. 8-seed Seton Hall and 4-seed Providence, but 0-2 vs. 9-see Marquette. The Wildcats won 5 straight at the end to win the Big East tournament.
The Wildcat offense is in the top ten in efficiency but it's also one of the slowest so they don't always put up huge point totals. Perhaps the most impressive stat is their free throw shooting: #1 in the nation at 82.3%. Despite their slow pace four Wildcats average in double figures, led by senior guard Collin Gillespie's 15.9 ppg. Justin Moore led with 21 against Delaware. Gillespie hit just 2 of 9 threes but all 8 free throws and finished with 20 points in the win over Ohio State.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (8)San Diego St.+14, @(12)Indiana+18, (3)Purdue+24, @(5)Iowa+5, (11)Rutgers+9, (7)Michigan St.+17, @(7)Ohio St.+6, =(6)Colorado St.+12, =(3)Tennessee+8
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (3)Purdue+24
- Losses to tournament teams (12): (8)Seton Hall-2, =(1)Arizona-18, @(8)North Carolina-21, @(11)Rutgers-8, @(4)Illinois-15, @(7)Michigan St.-16, @(3)Purdue-6, (7)Ohio St.-11, @(3)Wisconsin-14, (4)Illinois-8, (5)Iowa-11, =(12)Indiana-5
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): =(1)Arizona-18, @(8)North Carolina-21, @(3)Purdue-6
- Other losses (2): Minnesota-10, @UCF-14
Overview: Michigan's season was an up and down mess as seen on their chart, punctuated appropriately by Juwan Howard's suspension and return late in the season. The Wolverines went from a great performance one day to an embarrassing loss the next, particularly near the end. Their longest win streak is 3 games back in January. But for all their losses they only fell to two non-tournament teams all year, Minnesota and UCF. And they almost always won following a loss; if they had beaten Rutgers on January 4th that would be true of the entire season.
Michigan's offense is good because they do what they're good at—shoot 2's—not what they're mediocre at (3s). They rebound well on both sides of the court, especially on defense where they don't cause many turnovers. Center Hunter Dickinson leads the team with 18.3 ppg and 8.3 rebounds. Dickinson had 21 against Colorado State on 8 of 10 shooting and 27 against Tennessee on 8 of 13 shooting to lead the Wolverines in both victories.
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Game Analysis: Michigan did it—they played 2 solid games in a row and upset 3-seed Tennessee. They broke their pattern of following a good performance with a bad one. Now they have to go for three in a row—something they haven't done all year.What makes anyone think this very inconsistent team can suddenly be reliable?
There might be one explanation, and it's the kind sportswriters love, and credit for a team's "new attitude." Whether or not there was a causal effect is unknown, but there has to be a story. In this case, it's Michigan rallying around Juwan Howard, following his suspension and return. Is this really happening? Well, sure, they're rallying behind their coach, but if the Howard incident hadn't occurred, would they not be in the Sweet Sixteen? Maybe, maybe not. But it sounds convincing because 11-seed Michigan wasn't supposed to beat a 6-seed and then a 3-seed. So if we're to believe there's something new and different about Michigan, it has to be that. Never mind that plenty of teams—like last year's UCLA—won two (or more) games as an 11-seed without any rallying behind the coach.
It's sort of important in this case, because unless that's the answer, then there's no reason to believe Michigan's win streak is going to continue. They're close to being the most erratic team in the country, so unless we know for sure why this is happening, we have to assume that their next performance is randomly much better or worse than normal, and in their case three good games in a row is so far unheard-of.
As far as basketball goes: Michigan's edge when playing offense might not be so great; according to Pomeroy's stats, the teams are both #65 in effective field goal% (Michigan's offense and Villanova playing defense). The Wolverines do have a rebounding edge there, probably due to their height advantage, which is big: Michigan starts a 6-8, 6-11, 7-1 frontcourt to Villanova's 6-4, 6-7, 6-8. That rebounding edge will carry over to the other side of the court. But Villanova doesn't play the inside game (#350 in 2-pointers as % of points) so the don't have the notion of the "frontcourt" players on offense. They shoot 3s, a lot, and make them a lot.
Vegas Line:
Villanova by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Villanova by 5.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Villanova: 62.6%
Michigan: 37.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Villanova: 41.7%
Michigan: 58.3%
Villanova by 1.0
It's a bit surprising the line is so high on Villanova; normally Vegas is a few points lower than our Strength power rating line, and with Michigan's recent performance it might be even lower than that. But the oddsmakers are also factoring in the (high) chance of a Michigan outlier on the downside. Look at any of the red marks on the chart and see how low they are. That's what can happen. In other words, they don't believe Michigan has turned over a new leaf and is going to continue playing out of their heads.
Villanova's 63% chance to win is a lot lower than the 82% historical odds of a 2-seed beating an 11-seed (they're 14-3). These clashes are becoming more common; last year 11-seed Syracuse lost to Houston, while 11-seed UCLA beat Alabama. I keep telling people about 11-seeds and no one listens (I'm even picking against them all the time!)
Over the last 6 games Michigan has had four great performances and by comparison they beat Villanova's Last 6 games 58% of the time. But their bad performances were so bad that Villanova still comes out a point ahead.
Bottom line: Villanova will have trouble defending against Michigan's height. But I still say it's time for Michigan to have a downside game. If they have three good games in a row, we'll have to start believing our "rally-behind-the-coach" theory.
We could go with a slim win for Villanova, and that makes the most sense (which is why Vegas has it) but when making a prediction you should go bold. Either pick the upset or a big win for the favorite. In this case, if we're picking Villanova, it means they are going to have to make their threes. And if they're really on, it could be bad for Michigan. That's the scenario depicted below.
Final prediction: Villanova 80, Michigan 65
More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.
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