All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 28-3
Conference: WCC
vs.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: SEC
Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 7:09 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: San Francisco, CA
Channel: CBS
Now we're getting into the nitty-gritty: Gonzaga vs. Arkansas for an Elite Eight berth.
Gonzaga Arkansas
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #19
Median: #1 Median: #17
Markov: #1 Markov: #15
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #1 Offense: #54
Defense: #9 Defense: #13
BPI: #1 BPI: #20
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #22
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #2 Tempo (Offense): #45
SOS: #93 SOS: #43
Consistency: #253 Consistency: #230
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #12
Last 6 [-best]: #5 [#4] Last 6 [-best]: #34 [#47]
Gonzaga remains on top of the power rating heap, with Arkansas in the top 25 or so. The Zags and the Razorbacks are pretty close on defense but that's about it. They also both play a fast pace on offense, with Gonzaga much faster of course. And neither team is terribly consistent one game to the next. That's about the only thing that looks good for Arkansas in terms of getting an upset; their recent play does them no favors, and that includes their last game.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (6)Texas+12, =(4)UCLA+20, =(3)Texas Tech+14, (10)San Francisco+16, (5)Saint Mary's+16, @(10)San Francisco+16, =(10)San Francisco+10, =(5)Saint Mary's+13, =(16)Georgia St.+21, =(9)Memphis+4
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(4)UCLA+20, =(3)Texas Tech+14
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(2)Duke-3, (6)Alabama-9, @(5)Saint Mary's-10
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Duke-3
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Gonzaga used to have only a handful of tournament wins, now they have several from the West Coast Conference in addition to their pre-conference season skins. The Zags beat 6-seed Texas and after beating 4-seed UCLA 83-63 they looked unstoppable. Next game they lost to 2-seed Duke by three and then 6-seed Alabama by 9. Even the game between—a 64-55 win over powerhouse Tarleton State—was just as bad as those losses.
The Zags recovered and went on a tear, destroying every team in their path, eventually working their way back to #1. They beat 3-seed Texas Tech by 14 and added WCC wins over San Francisco (x3) and St. Mary's (x2). Late in the year they ran out of gas, just a bit. They were a little less dominant in their wins and suffered a bad loss to St. Mary's, 67-57. They beat the Gaels for the WCC title though, 82-69.
Drew Timme is the main player back from last year's team; the 6-10 center leads the team with 17.5 points per game, and right behind him is 7-0 freshman Chet Holmgren who averages 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds. Timme and Holmgren took over when things were looking bleak against Georgia State; from a 54-52 deficit they teamed up for 24 points in the next seven minutes to put the game away. Timme finished with 32, Holmgren 19. Timme had 25 points and 14 rebounds in the 82-78 comeback win vs. Memphis.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): @(6)LSU+7, (2)Auburn+OT, (3)Tennessee+10, (2)Kentucky+2, (6)LSU+1, =(6)LSU+12, =(13)Vermont+4, =(12)New Mexico St.+5
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(6)Alabama-1, @(3)Tennessee-4
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Other losses (6): =Oklahoma-22, Hofstra-8, @Mississippi St.-13, Vanderbilt-1, @Texas A&M-5, =Texas A&M-18
Overview: Arkansas started out good and became great. After a 9-0 start they suffered 5 quick losses but in stair-step fashion (obviously this is a fluke but it's amusing) they got a little better with each loss, until bam! They exploded with their best game, an 87-43 beatdown of Missouri. From there they won 15 of 17 games at a high level, beating 6-seed LSU twice, 2-seed Auburn, 2-seed Kentucky, and 3-seed Tennessee. Even their losses were respectable: road losses by 1 to Alabama and 4 to Tennessee. Then came the last game, an 82-64 loss to Texas A&M, the Razorbacks' only bad game in 2 months. Does it mean anything? Did they really just run out of gas? It's possible that Texas A&M just has their number, as they beat Arkansas 2 of three times and the Razorback win went to overtime.
The Razorback fast-paced offense does everything pretty well except shoot the 3; on defense they're even better. Four players average in double figures led by JD Notae's 18.4 ppg. Stanley Umude led with 21 points against Vermont. Despite being just 5 of 18 from the floor Notae led all scorers with 18 against New Mexico State.
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Game Analysis: There's not much hope for Arkansas on paper. They play great defense, but they're facing the top offense in the country. They play decent offense but that's probably not good enough against Gonzaga. Both teams are unpredictable, and that might be their only shot: the random luck that Gonzaga plays a bad game while they play a good game. That's not a lot to go on when making a prediction.
Arkansas' last game against New Mexico State didn't inspire confidence either. Compare that to Gonzaga's game vs. Memphis. The Bulldogs were down at half and had to battle back and win at clutch time. Arkansas led at the half, let New Mexico State back in, and held on. Gonzaga won by 4, Arkansas by 5. Not only was the "story" of Gonzaga's game a lot more reassuring, they were playing Memphis. No offense to New Mexico State, but they aren't Memphis.
Gonzaga has the height advantage by quite a bit; Arkansas will have trouble stopping both of the Zags' big men when their 2nd tallest guy on the court is 6-6.
At this point the hope for Arkansas is to get lucky with three pointers. Gonzaga is #1 in 2 point defense so that's out. Arkansas is unfortunately a terrible 3-point shooting team (30.5%) but any team can get lucky. Let them fly and see what happens!
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 8 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 10.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 78.2%
Arkansas: 21.8%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Gonzaga: 72%
Arkansas: 28%
Gonzaga by 8.8
The early line is Gonzaga by 8 1/2, and that's probably about where it will stay as that is 2 points under the Strength power rating's spread. Gonzaga's 78% chance to win is well above the historical rate of 72% for 1-seeds to beat 4-seeds. They achieve that rate in the Last 6 Games comparison, though, with a line that's close to the Vegas standard.
Bottom line: I picked Arkansas to lost to Vermont in the opener partly due to their terrible final season game. I wasn't sure they would recover from it in just one game. They didn't really, even in two games, though they won both of them. They'll need a hell of a 3rd game to beat Gonzaga.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 83, Arkansas 73
More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.
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