All previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule
Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Houston Cougars
Seed: 5
Record: 31-5
Conference: American
Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: San Antonio, TX
Channel: TBS
Rightful 1-seed Arizona and woefully underseeded 5 Houston play in San Antonio.
Arizona Houston
Power Ratings
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #3
Median: #5 Median: #2
Markov: #2 Markov: #5
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #2
Offense: #7 Offense: #10
Defense: #19 Defense: #10
BPI: #3 BPI: #2
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #3
Other Measures:
Tempo (Offense): #4 Tempo (Offense): #322
SOS: #71 SOS: #79
Consistency: #267 Consistency: #332
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #3
Last 6 [-best]: #14 [#11] Last 6 [-best]: #3 [#2]
This is really a national-championship caliber game being played to get into the Elite Eight. Arizona is actually a strong 1-seed, and Houston now outranks them in 2 of the 3 power ratings that update. The Cougars have moved past Arizona in Pomeroy, and the BPI had them ahead already. In Strength they are still a half-point behind, but they've moved ahead in Median Strength and in out Markov chain implementation.
How Houston got a 5-seed is a mystery. It's true they didn't have many "quality" wins but neither did last year's team that got a 2-seed and this team rated just as well by any other measure. They were #3 in the NET rankings this year and only #5 last year. They should have gotten a 3-seed this year, and probably last year, too. There's certainly not a 3 seed difference between last year's results and this year's.
Houston's offense and defense both rank #10 in efficiency, while Arizona has a better offense but not as good defense. For a given game, those differences are too small to worry about, as is the difference between these teams. There's a big difference in tempo: Arizona plays as fast as just about anyone, while Houston slows it down to a crawl on offense by comparison. The Wildcats play halfcourt defense so Houston's pace on offense will stand, but the Cougars like to do the same on defense so that's where the battle of pace will occur.
Another interesting comparison is Strength of Schedule. Since Arizona is in a major conference most would assume their SOS to be quite a bit higher than Houston's as part of the American, but it's actually really close. Arizona played a weaker non-conference schedule is one reason the numbers end up close; also as a 1-seed Arizona diluted their SOS by playing 16-seed Wright State while Houston just played 4-seed Illinois to boost theirs.
In recent play Houston has done much better, especially over the last 5 games. The 6th game back for Houston is a 14-point loss to Memphis, which demonstrates their lack of consistency (#332 of 358). Arizona is pretty up and down too but you have to go 9 games back now for their last awful performance, 79-63 to Colorado.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Michigan+18, (12)Wyoming+29, @(4)Illinois+4, (4)UCLA+10, (7)USC+9, @(7)USC+20, =(4)UCLA+8, =(16)Wright St.+17, =(9)TCU+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(11)Michigan+18, (4)UCLA+10, =(4)UCLA+8
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Tennessee-4, @(4)UCLA-16
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(4)UCLA-16
- Other losses (1): @Colorado-16
Overview: Arizona raced to an 11-0 start beating 11-seed Michigan and 4-seed Illinois, and by that time people were starting to take notice. They stubbed their toe on 3-seed Tennessee on the road but they picked right back up and were 16-1 when 4-seed UCLA beat them 75-59. No problem: 9 wins later they're a crazy 25-2. That's when they suffered their worst loss by far: 79-63 at Colorado. But once again, six wins later the Wildcats were 31-3, Pac-12 champs, and had beaten a good collection of tough teams.
Arizona's fast-paced offense is one of the very best in the country. They're good on defense, too, and they settle down into the half court there and defend well, especially from 2-point range. But it's the offense that drives them. They're top 5 from 2-point range and rebound very well. Four Wildcats average in double figures led by Benedict Mathurin's 17.4ppg. Note that point guard Kerr Kriisa (#4 scorer, #1 assists) may miss the first round game. He's very likely to be back for the next game if he does. Mathurin led five in double figures with 18 in the win over Wright State. Arizona won a wild overtime game vs. TCU leaning almost exclusively on Mathurin (30 points) and Christian Koloko (12-13 from the floor, 28 points, 12 rebounds).
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (16)Bryant+67, =(9)Memphis+18, =(12)UAB+14, =(4) Illinois+15
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(3)Wisconsin-2, @(6)Alabama-1, (9)Memphis-10, @(9)Memphis-14
- Other losses (1): @SMU-2
Overview: This is why Houston got a 5-seed: only two wins over tournament teams, one of them a 16-seed play-in team. And four losses in their other opportunities to beat tournament teams. But to be fair, last year's team got a 2-seed and their résumé wasn't much different. Certainly not worthy of a 2-seed if this year's team is only a 5-seed. I mean, Houston finished #3 in the NET rankings, what are those even for?
Regardless, Houston is good enough that their seeding is going to cause an imbalance in the Force. They've shown they can lay an egg here and there but they can also beat a tournament team 111-44 (Bryant again), and a 9-seed by 18 points. Last year's team didn't get to show what they really had until the tournament and the same thing could happen here.
The Cougars shoot the 2 really well and rebound really well, too. They don't make their free throws, however (67%). They play great defense with numerous blocks and steals and everything. It's hard to compare numbers across different leagues but their schedule wasn't that bad. Houston is led by Kyler Edwards' 13.6 points per game; Marcus Sasser was the leading scorer at 17.7 but he only played 12 games before an injury ended his season (he's hinting at trying to come back for the tournament but that's pretty unlikely). Edwards led with 25 in the win over UAB, making 6 of 8 threes. Taze Moore's 21 led the rout of Illinois.
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Game Analysis: This is going to be a killer game. It's being played in San Antonio, a lot closer to home for Houston but not that far for Arizona (almost 1,000 miles, true, but at least they're not coming in from the East coast). I'd make the case for a partial home court advantage for Houston.
Both teams appear to have the advantage when on offense, per Pomeroy, but it's close on both sides of the court. Both offenses rebound really well and will probably get a lot of 2nd opportunities. Both teams' strength is their 2-point shooting, but both teams are very solid on defense against 2-pointers.
One big advantage Arizona has overall is height, across the board from guards to their 7-1 center. They're also a much better free throw shooting team, 74% to 67%. Houston has a big edge in turnovers; they create a lot of steals while Arizona doesn't.
Vegas Line:
Arizona by 2
Power rating: spread
Arizona by 0.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arizona: 52.5%
Houston: 47.5%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Arizona: 33.3%
Houston: 66.7%
Houston by 4.0
Vegas is clearly not giving Houston any partial home court for playing in San Antonio. The oddsmakers' spread for Arizona is a couple of points higher than ours, when usually it's the other way around. If we gave Houston full home court advantage (which is too much) the Cougars would be a 2 point favorite. It would also essentially flip the % to win between the teams. As it stands, with no home court consideration, Arizona is a 52.5% favorite, which is well below the rate that 1-seeds beat 5-seeds (around 80%). Houston is possibly the best-rated 5-seed in the 64-team era; going back to 1985 I could only find two others, 2000 Florida (went to Final Four) and 2002 Florida (lost in first round) that were in the top 5 in Strength. In the pre-64-team era, Iowa in 1980 was a 5-seed, ranked #1 in Strength, and made the FInal Four.
Bottom line: Really this is too close to call. If it comes down to turnovers Houston wins. If it comes down to free throws, Arizona wins. Probably it comes down to which way the ball bounces. I had Arizona winning here in my bracket but the way Houston is playing, plus their proximity to home might be the intangibles they need for the upset.
Final prediction: Houston 74, Arizona 72
More previews: click here for the full 2022 NCAA tournament schedule.
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