All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 31-0
Conference: West Coast
vs.
Baylor Bears
Seed: 1
Record: 27-2
Conference: Big 12
Date: Monday, April 5
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
For most of the season this seemed like the inevitable clash to prove who is really #1.
Gonzaga Baylor
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #2
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #2
Offense: #1 Offense: #2
Defense: #8 Defense: #27
BPI: #1 BPI: #2
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1 LRMC: #3
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #7/#3 Tempo Total/Off: #201/#129
Last 5 games: #1 Last 5 games: #2
Across the board, it's #1 Gonzaga vs. #2 Baylor. The LRMC doesn't update during the tournament so they still have Baylor #3. They had Illinois #2, so they projected a Gonzaga-Illinois final. What would the others have said? Strength would also have said Gonzaga-Illinois, and so would Pomeroy (he had Michigan #2 and Illinois #3 but the Illini would still have faced Gonzaga from the other side of the bracket). The BPI is the only one of the four that projected a Gonzaga-Baylor championship game pre-tourney.
Our Strength power rating had the two teams neck-and-neck until Baylor's post-Covid slump, which included their last 7 games before the tournament. We weren't sure whether they were still slumping or not, but it's pretty clear now that they are fully out of that slump. For tournament performance Gonzaga ranks #1 and Baylor #2, rating about 1.7 points better.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16, =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19, =(11)UCLA+OT
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19, =(11)UCLA+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.
The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.
Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.
The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds. Timme had 22 as the Zags handled Creighton with relative ease, 83-65. The Bulldogs decimation of USC was a thing of beauty, probably the best game a team has played this tournament, considering that USC's beatdown of Kansas was clearly another high-water mark. Drew Timme had 23 points, mostly in the first half as the game was already put out of reach at 49-30. They finally had a test—a big one—against 11-seed UCLA, needing overtime to eke out a 93-90 win on Suggs' last second 3-pointer.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(1)Illinois+13, (8)Oklahoma+15, @(6)Texas Tech+8, (3)Kansas+8, @(4)Oklahoma St.+15, @(3)Texas+14, @(3)West Virginia+OT, (4)Oklahoma St.+11, (6)Texas Tech+15, =(16)Hartford+24, =(9)Wisconsin+13, =(5)Villanova+11, =(3)Arkansas+11, =(2)Houston+19
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(5)Villanova+11, =(3)Arkansas+11, =(2)Houston+19
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Kansas-13, =(4)Oklahoma St.-9
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Baylor raced from the gate ranked #2 and looking like it as they beat future 1-seed Illinois in an otherwise cupcake pre-conference season. Those cupcakes, coupled with their three-week break leaves them with a résumé that would be worthy of a 3-seed any other year in terms of big wins. But this year it's pretty stellar; only 4 teams have more than their 9 tourney-team skins. Amazingly though as they reach the Sweet Sixteen they've beaten none of the rest of the field as the Big Twelve has fizzled out much like the Big Ten.
The Bears' Covid break occurred between game 17 (Texas) and game 18 (Iowa State). Though they beat the 2-win Cyclones it was close, 77-72 at home, by far their worst game of the season at that point. The loss at Kansas wasn't quite as bad but spoiled their perfect season. The Bears recovered over the next three games and looked to be recapturing their form—which would make sense, their practice was greatly limited during the off time—but then they had another relapse, barely beating 9-19 Kansas State 74-68 then falling to Oklahoma State 83-74. They look like they recovered against Hartford, but the jury is still out.
Baylor boasts three players in double figures: Jared Butler (17.1), MaCio Teague (16.2) and Davion Mitchell (14.1). They play a smaller, guard-heavy lineup, often having only one player over 6-5 on the court. Against Hartford, Teague led the Bears with 22 points. Against Wisconsin Teague and Mitchell at 16 but it was Matthew Mayer leading off the bench with 17. And in the win over Villanova another bench player, Adam Flagler, led with 16; the Bears won comfortably despite making only 3 of 19 threes as Villanova made just 3 of 17. Teague had 22 in the Bears's solid win over Arkansas, and Butler's 17 led as they rolled over Houston 78-59.
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Game Analysis: These are the best offensive teams in college basketball, but only Gonzaga ranks in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Bears are just outside the top 25. That should make a big difference—it should be THE difference—but if UCLA can nearly beat Gonzaga, then Baylor is perfectly capable of beating the Bulldogs. UCLA's defense ranks 46th and that didn't stop them from taking Gonzaga into overtime.
Does it matter that Gonzaga had a nail-biter while Baylor crushed Houston? Clearly UCLA was just about the hottest team in college basketball during the tournament—they beat a surging Michigan State, upset BYU, then beat 2-seed Alabama and 1-seed Michigan in very close contests. They were going to play any team close. If they'd been on the other side of the bracket it probably would have been the same with Baylor.
Both teams shoot very well and should be able to against the other team; neither team turns the ball over much on offense, but Baylor's D might push Gonzaga in that area as the Bears are #6 in steals. Both teams rebound well on offense (Baylor is #6), but Baylor's defensive rebounding is a suspect #280 so Gonzaga might end up with more 2nd shots. The most interesting comparison: Baylor is #1 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 41.2%, while Gonzaga is #1 in 2-point percentage at 63.9%.
Baylor is a pretty short team playing a guard-heavy lineup most of the time. They face one of the taller teams in Gonzaga, who has tall guard/forwards plus 6-10 Drew Timme inside. It's Gonzaga that wants to run on offense, however, so it will be interesting to see when and how Baylor uses their smaller lineup and when they put in 6-10 Flo Thamba for more height.
Gonzaga's Mark Few has been on a long march toward a championship for decades now. A few years ago he finally reached the title game and lost to North Carolina. This year's team has the feel of destiny to it; I don't think it will be hard for him to get the players more fired up than they've ever been.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 4.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 59.9%
Baylor: 40.1%
Recent game performance (last 5):
Gonzaga: 60.0%
Baylor: 40.0%
Gonzaga by 1.7
Vegas seems to be looking at the full year, including Baylor's slump games, when making this line as it nearly matches our full-year estimate. But our own odds for Gonzaga winning hardly change whether you use the full year's games or just the last 5—both say Gonzaga is 60% likely to win. What does change is the score estimate, dropping from 4.0 to 1.7.
What do Pomeroy and BPI say? Pomeroy give the Zags a 65% chance to win, taking them by 4. The BPI gives Gonzaga a 55% chance to win, with a 1.4 point expected spread.
Bottom line: We picked Gonzaga at the start, and had Baylor as a big question mark. If they hadn't recovered fully from Covid they would make a quick exit. If they had, they would run straight to the championship game and have a solid chance of winning it all. It turned out the latter happened, and here we are. We don't put too much stock in just the last game for each team, but the full tournament is a 5-game sample which gets about as close as you can to seeing where the teams are right now. Gonzaga has too many and varied weapons and is better on defense, and the players will be beyond hyped to get Mark Few his national title.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 85, Baylor 83
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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