All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 30-0
Conference: West Coast
vs.
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 22-9
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Saturday, April 3
Time: 8:34 pm Eastern
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Pesky 11-seeds have overperformed greatly in the last 10 years, with two reaching the Final Four. But no 11-seed has won a Final Four game in the tournament in four tries. Can UCLA be the first?
Gonzaga UCLA
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #23
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #15
Offense: #1 Offense: #13
Defense: #5 Defense: #45
BPI: #1 BPI: #30
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1 LRMC: #47
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #6/#3 Tempo Total/Off: #338/#319
Consistency: #78 Consistency: #55
Last 4 games: #1 Last 4 games: #4
UCLA has made a remarkable rise in the power ratings in just 5 tournament games, advancing from a play-in 11-seed ranked in the 40s by all power ratings, to a solid top 20 to top 30 team (LRMC is the pre-tourney ranking). They're still a far cry from Gonzaga's unanimous #1, with top FIVE offense and defense now.
If pace is important, than this game will show that. UCLA plays at a snail's pace compared to Gonzaga's fast tempo. The main difference will be when the Zags have the ball; they want to strike very fast while UCLA's defense bogs teams down in half-court hell.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16, =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(5)Creighton+18, =(6)USC+19
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.
The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.
Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.
The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds. Timme had 22 as the Zags handled Creighton with relative ease, 83-65. The Bulldogs decimation of USC was a thing of beauty, probably the best game a team has played this tournament, considering that USC's beatdown of Kansas was clearly another high-water mark. Drew Timme had 23 points, mostly in the first half as the game was already put out of reach at 49-30.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT, =(6)BYU+11, =(14)Abilene Christian+20, =(2)Alabama+OT, =(1)Michigan+2
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (12)Oregon St.+5, =(2)Alabama+OT, =(1)Michigan+2
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(6)USC-18, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
- Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8
Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.
What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.
The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.
Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory vs. Michigan State; Juzang had 27 against BYU in their first-round win vs. BYU, and led with 17 against Abilene Christian. Six Bruins scored in double figures in the 88-78 overtime win vs. 2-seed Alabama. UCLA had another close win left in the tank as they survived three late 3-point attempts by the Wolverines and won 51-49; Juzang was unstoppable hitting 11 of 19 shots for 28 points.
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Game Analysis: Will UCLA's luck run out like every other 11-seed? LSU was the first real 11-seed in the 1986 tournament; they lost to eventual winner 2-seed Louisville 88-77. George Mason famously made the Final Four in 2006 but lost to eventual winner 3-seed Florida, 73-58. VCU was the first play-in 11-seed in 2011 and made the Final Four, losing to runner-up Butler (8-seed) 70-62; and a few years back Loyola Chicago stormed the Final Four before falling to 3-seed Michigan 69-57.
UCLA's odds are about as good as those teams' odds were, probably worse since they're facing a 1-seed and an undefeated 1-seed at that. And an undefeated 1-seed that is playing its best basketball of the season. To be fair so is UCLA, but the Bruins are scraping by on overtime or 2 points in three of their five wins.
The tempo difference is as stark as we've seen in the tournament. UCLA's offense is slow and doesn't turn the ball over, so on that side of the court the game will probably be very slow-paced. When Gonzaga has the ball things will change if Gonzaga has their way, but not if UCLA can establish a solid half-court defense. The difficulty there is defense is UCLA's weak point, and they're facing the top offense in the land. Maybe tempo can be an equalizer?
In terms of getting another upset, UCLA might be finally out of luck. Against 2-seed Alabama and 1-seed Michigan they were facing teams that perform inconsistently. Gonzaga isn't one of those teams. UCLA isn't either, though we can assume they're playing steadily on the upside of their range right now. That's still not enough to overcome the Bulldogs unless the Bulldogs have a down day, and they don't have that very often. In fact it looks like they've been getting better every game for the last month or so.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 14
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 13.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 86.2%
UCLA: 13.8%
Recent game performance (last 4):
Gonzaga: 100%
UCLA: 0%
Gonzaga by 11.0
As expected, a pretty solid line in favor of Gonzaga. Our percentage-to-win for the full season is 86%, much greater than the historical 57% 1-seeds have over 11-seeds (they've won 4 of 7 meetings). This is the first meeting for an 11-seed and a 1-seed in the Final Four.
Over the course of the tournament, every game Gonzaga has played is better than every game UCLA has played. The 4-game span doesn't count UCLA's play-in game, which was their worst performance anyway, so it's still 100-0 for Gonzaga.
Bottom line: It would take a huge drop in performance for Gonzaga to lose to UCLA, even with the Bruins playing at their highest level. Mark Few seems to be coaching his best and should keep any overconfidence in check. We don't see UCLA winning another close one, or even having a close game here.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 94, UCLA 71
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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