Several top-rated major-conference games fell into trap games on Saturday with different results. What is a trap game? Definitions vary but normally a "trap game" is a road game against a heavy underdog which lulls the favorite into a poor performance. Often trap games come before a big rivalry game for the favorite—or when the game itself is a mismatch rivalry game. Another case is when the underdog is playing their final game of the season with little or no hope for the NCAA tournament. That was the case in all three games on Saturday: the last home game of the season—senior day—for a team unlikely to make the tournament.
The three teams handled their traps with varying success. Here we describe all three and what it might mean for their March Madness chances.
Florida State(15-4) at Notre Dame (10-13)
Projected Seed coming in: 4-seed
Fell Behind by: 20
Cut Lead to: 4
Result: Lost 83-73
Florida State went into Notre Dame with the Irish on 4-game losing streak. Notre Dame was only a 7 point underdog, probably because it was recognized as a trap game by oddsmakers and they're a tough home team. But the Irish got off to a huge lead and held it through the first half, leading 47-31. In the 2nd half the Seminoles came back but never got to a better than 30% chance of winning according to Kenpom.com and ESPN's Gamecast. By the time they cut the lead to 74-70 they had just 2 minutes left, but they made two big mistake turnovers—likely from being tired from battling back—that sealed the game for Notre Dame.
Florida State's Grade: C-
This doesn't bode well for Florida State's chances in the tournament. Great teams sometimes fall in trap games but they don't get flustered, and make a comeback. Even their fast tempo couldn't right the ship for the Seminoles. They did make the game interesting, but at the end they didn't have it.
Villanova (16-4) at Providence (12-12)
Projected Seed coming in: 3-seed
Fell Behind by: 20
Cut Lead to: up by 1
Result: Lost 54-52
Villanova met Providence at the Friars' last home game, and at 12-12 no chance for an at-large bid. Providence got out early, 21-7, and extended it to 38-18 before the half. Villanova made a run at the start of the 2nd half to cut the lead to 38-32, but Providence kept the lead until Villanova made another run to lead 50-49 with 2:30 left. Ultimately the result was a coin flip, tied 52-52 when a last-second Providence layup gave them the win.
Villanova's Grade: C+
The Wildcats shouldn't lose a game like this, and it shows they're vulnerable to being overconfident. And when they get behind, it's harder for the Wildcats with their slow tempo to make a quick run. But they did, and led the game late—a good sign, but not good enough to win. Even if they had won I'd give them the same C+ grade; the result doesn't matter as much as the fact that they put themselves into this position.
Alabama (20-6) at Georgia (14-10)
Projected Seed coming in: 2-seed
Fell Behind by: 14
Cut Lead to: led by 10
Result: Won 89-79
Alabama was facing a team that wasn't as hopeless as the others at 14-10 but it might have been the worst of the trap games considering that Alabama beat the Bulldogs by 33 points just a few weeks ago. It's hard to take an opponent like that seriously, and Georgia took advantage by running out to a 29-15 lead. But Bama didn't get flustered, and came back methodically to cut the lead to 36-30 at the half. The Tide completed their 21-2 run in the 2nd half and took a 45-38 lead. They didn't get burned out by the run, either, holding a 4+ point lead the rest of the way.
Alabama's Grade: A
A solid performance by the Crimson Tide; they fell behind but unlike FSU and Villanova they didn't let it get out of control, responding strong in the first half. By not letting the Bulldogs hold a big halftime lead they didn't tire themselves out. They were tested and passed.
Upshot: This makes Alabama look a lot better and Florida State look suspect. Villanova is somewhere in-between since their result was a tossup, but their slow tempo makes them vulnerable if they get in a hole in the tournament. FSU and Villanova are both on the upset watch.
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