All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
USC Trojans
Seed: 6
Record: 24-7
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Oregon Ducks
Seed: 7
Record: 21-6
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Two Pac-12 teams—one who has played only one game—meet in the Sweet Sixteen.
USC Oregon
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #19
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #17
Offense: #15 Offense: #10
Defense: #5 Defense: #52
BPI: #10 BPI: #29
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #11 LRMC: #30
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #236/#190 Tempo Total/Off: #227/#183
Consistency: #318 Consistency: #69
Last 2 games: #1 Last 2 games: #3
These are two of the hottest teams in the tournament—even if Oregon's result is based on just one game. USC has made its way firmly into the top 10 of the power ratings (LRMC almost had them there already) while the Ducks are mostly in the top 20. Oregon's defense is the outlier here, however, in efficiency.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(6)BYU+26, (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(11)Drake+16, =(3)Kansas+34
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(7)Connecticut-3, (5)Colorado-10, @(12)Oregon St.-2, @(5)Colorado-18, =(5)Colorado-2
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(12)Oregon St.-2
- Other losses (2): Arizona-9, @Utah-10
Overview: USC kicked off the season with a 95-87 overtime win over Cal Baptist, hardly a promising start. But a few games later they topped 6-seed BYU 79-53. Losses to UConn and Colorado stalled the Trojans before a 13-1 run put them at the top of the Pac-12 and in the forefront of the college basketball world. Then some turbulence hit; they lost to Arizona, Colorado, and Utah in a 4-game stretch, strangely interrupted by a huge 72-58 win over 7-seed Oregon. And right after these issues, they crushed Stanford 79-42, one of their very best outings, and beat 11-seed UCLA on the road. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado—their third loss to the Buffaloes. The Trojans have become a very unpredictable team lately.
USC is led by the Evan Mobley (16.8 ppg, 8.6 rebounds) a 7-0 forward who is a certain lottery pick in the next NBA draft; brother Isaiah, 6-10, is the 4th leading scorer at 9.0 ppg and 2nd leading rebounder. As a team they shoot the ball well and get a lot of rebounds, as they are statistically the 2nd tallest team in the nation. On defense they are lockdown inside the arc, allowing opponents only 42% on 2-pointers. One big flaw: they shoot only 64.7% from the foul line.
Evan Mobley led with 17 against Drake while Isaiah added 15 in the 72-56 win; Isaiah had 17 in the stunning 85-51 beatdown of Kansas, while Evan had 10 points and 13 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (14)Eastern Washington+17, (5)Colorado+4, (11)UCLA+8, @(12)Oregon St.+13, =(2)Iowa+15
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (11)UCLA+8, @(12)Oregon St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Missouri-8, @(5)Colorado-7, (12)Oregon St.-11, @(6)USC-14, =(12)Oregon St.-11
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): (12)Oregon St.-11, @(6)USC-14, =(12)Oregon St.-11
- Other losses (1): Washington St.-3
Overview: Oregon lost to 9-seed Missouri early but won 8 straight after that, mostly over cupcakes though that included 14-seed Eastern Washington. After losing to Colorado and beating Utah on January 9, they had Covid issues, not playing again for two weeks; that was a bad loss to Oregon State, after which they had another 2 weeks off before losing to 14-13 Washington State. They barely beat lowly 5-21 Washington, but seemed to recover after that, winning 5 straight in all before the USC loss, after which they played their very best in winning 6 straight. Then they played terribly in their last game, losing to Oregon State. If not for that last dud, Oregon might look like a team that's going places.
Oregon has five scorers in double figures, led by 6-6 senior guard Chris Duarte and 6-6 senior forward Eugene Omoruyi, both of whom average 16.7 points per game. The Ducks shoot the ball well and pretty much do everything right on offense; they don't defend nearly as well.
Oregon had the strangest "win" in NCAA tournament history on Saturday, advancing to the Round of 32 because VCU couldn't compete due to positive Covid tests. The game was declared a No Contest, like it was a boxing match, except that usually happens after the fight. This makes the contrast between their last game—the bad loss to Oregon State—and their dominant win over Iowa even more stark. Chris Duarte had 23 and LJ Figueroa 21 as the starters scored all but 6 points in the 95-80 win over the Hawkeyes despite 36 points from Luka Garza.
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Game Analysis: Oregon's status as a 1-game winner in the Sweet Sixteen is unprecedented in the 64-team era. Of course from 1975-1984 it was normal to only need one win to make the Sweet Sixteen, and before that teams often started the tournament there. But it's unheard of for the last 35 years. And think about this—what if Drake had defeated USC and made it this far? They'd have three tournament wins, and would be facing 1-win Oregon.
It's hard to say what affect Oregon's bye had on their game with Iowa, but they pulled ahead at the end of the first half when teams are normally tiring. Of course, this logic would imply that 11-seed play-in teams are at a big disadvantage and they seem to do just fine.
The main dynamic in this game is the fact that the teams have faced each other before—surprisingly, only once. USC won that game 72-58 playing at home, but playing without Isaiah Mobley. With him, USC's height advantage over the uniformly 6-6 Ducks is even greater.
In the first meeting USC's Tahj Eaddy scored 24 points hitting 6 of 11 threes; in all USC made 10 of 21 threes. If they only make 7 of those that's a 9 point swing in Oregon's favor; it still doesn't close the 12 point gap but makes the game closer. USC opened the first game and raced to a 15-0 lead; after that the game was essentially even but then again, that's all USC needed it to be.
Vegas Line:
USC by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
USC by 3.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
USC: 56.5%
Oregon: 43.5%
Recent game performance (last 6):
USC: 52.8%
Oregon: 47.2%
USC by 6.0
The 6-seed vs. 7-seed matchup has only happened 7 times, and the 6-seed has won 4 of 7 (57%). So our 56.5% odds for USC are right in line with that. It tightens even more over the last 6-game sample but the average margin widens to 6 points for USC.
Bottom line: Oregon's win over Iowa was special, but it was nothing compared to how USC demolished Kansas. Neither team is likely to repeat that level of play; it's more likely to look like their previous meeting which USC won without Isaiah Mobley.
Final prediction: USC 78, Oregon 65
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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