All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 3
Record: 24-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Seed: 15
Record: 18-10
Conference: Summit
Date: Saturday, March 27
Time: 7:25 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Oral Roberts attempts to become the first 15-seed to make the Elite Eight. To do so they must win a rematch with Arkansas.
Arkansas Oral Roberts
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #138
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #128
Offense: #37 Offense: #65
Defense: #10 Defense: #239
BPI: #13 BPI: #143
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #18 LRMC: #119
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #17/#36 Tempo Total/Off: #46/#41
Consistency: #253 Consistency: #126
Last 2 games: #9 Last 2 games: #26
No surprise, the 3-seed ranks better than the shocking Sweet Sixteen interloper 15-seed. The interesting takeaways are that Oral Roberts' offense is nearly as good as Arkansas' offense, and that even after upsetting a 2-seed and a 7-seed the other power ratings have yet to catch up to LRMC's pre-tourney ranking of Oral Roberts at #119. It wouldn't have picked the upset over either team but it's interesting they ranked that high; it's probably due to their close early season games against good opponents.
The teams play similar tempos and neither is wildly inconsistent. And for as well as Oral Roberts has played in the tourney, Arkansas has still been better.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (13)North Texas+15, (15)Oral Roberts+11, (14)Abilene Christian+13, @(9)Missouri+OT, (7)Florida+11, (2)Alabama+15, (8)LSU+8, =(9)Missouri+6, =(14)Colgate+17, =(6)Texas Tech+2
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (15)Oral Roberts+11, (2)Alabama+15
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (9)Missouri-13, @(5)Tennessee-5, @(8)LSU-16, @(2)Alabama-31, @(4)Oklahoma St.-4, =(8)LSU-7
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(2)Alabama-31
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Arkansas has an excellent record against the field, winning 5 games against SEC teams that made the cut and beating three other small-conference champs while they were at it. They also took their lumps in the SEC, including a stretch where they lost 4 of 5, but they turned their season around and won nine straight, 12 straight in-conference before losing to LSU in the SEC tournament. They didn't lose a game to a non-tournament team, nor did they lose to any team seeded lower than 9.
Moses Moody (17.4ppg) leads four scorers in double figures. The Razorbacks aren't reliant on shooting the 3, and don't shoot it particularly well, but they're above 50% on 2-pointers. On defense they're pretty good across the board. Justin Smith's 29 led the team against Colgate in their back-and-forth 85-68 victory; all of his 20 points against Texas Tech were needed in the Hogs' 68-66 2nd round win.
Arkansas has 2 wins over the Sweet Sixteen field, including one over Oral Roberts from back in December.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(2)Ohio St.+OT, =(7)Florida+3
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(9)Missouri-27, @(11)Wichita St.-5, @(4)Oklahoma St.-5, @(8)Oklahoma-14, @(3)Arkansas-11
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (5): @(3)Arkansas-11
- Other losses (5): North Dakota-1, UMKC-5, @North Dakota St.-7, South Dakota St.-15, @South Dakota-2
Overview: Oral Roberts played a killer non-conference schedule, losing to Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Arkansas before Summit League play started. That's a 9, 11, 4, 8, and 3-seed all in the first month. So Ohio State won't shock them with anything they do; they even played two of those teams to single digits, and led 3-seed Arkansas 40-30 at the half before falling 87-76.
Oral Roberts boasts the nation's leading scorer in Max Abmas (pronounced Ace - Muss despite all indications otherwise) who scores 24.2 point per game; #2 scorer Kevin Obanor adds a healthy 18.2. Part of this is due to the speed they play, but they are #11 in the nation in 3-point percentage. It's not about the low level of competition either, as Abmas scored 28 against Wichita State, 33 on Oklahoma State, and 20 vs. Oklahoma.
The Golden Eagles got their first win over a tournament team in a big way, upsetting 2-seed Ohio State 75-72 in overtime. The top scoring duo in the nation was on show, with Obanor scoring 30 and Abmas 29, 79% of the team's output. They combined for 54 (Obanor 28, Abmas 26), 2/3 of the Eagles' points in their 81-78 win over Florida.
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Game Analysis: Oral Roberts' tough non-conference schedule has to be a key to their March Madness success. In a span of a month they played Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, all future tournament teams. And in-between those losses were confidence-building wins over non-Division I opponents Rogers State (93-63), Southwestern Christian (111-58), and Bacone (96-65). That combo of very tough and very easy opponents seems to have prepared them well for post-season play; their conference schedule had no one as good or as bad as they faced early in the year.
The Eagles first game with Arkansas in Fayetteville was closer than the 87-67 final score indicates. Oral Roberts took a led mid-way through the first half and was up 40-30 at the half. They led 48-39 before an Arkansas run closed the gap and the Razorbacks started to pull away.
This leads to two conclusions: 1) the Eagles can play with the Razorbacks. And 2) Arkansas isn't going to underestimate the Golden Eagles, not for a second. Five Eagles scored in double figures that game, led by Obanor's 21. They shot just 8 of 29 from beyond the arc or the game would have been much closer.
Vegas Line:
Arkansas by 11
Power rating: spread
Arkansas by 16.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arkansas: 86.3%
Oral Roberts: 13.7%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Arkansas: 77.7%
Oral Roberts: 22.2%
Arkansas by 8.1
The line is 11 points, interestingly the same margin Arkansas won by back in December. Back then neither Arkansas nor Oral Roberts was as highly though-of. Our power rating suggests 16 points is more appropriate, but clearly Oral Roberts is playing far better than they did for most of the season, or back in December when these teams met last. Indeed for the most recent 6 games the margin is cut in half and Oral Roberts has a 22%, up from 14%.
Historically 15-seeds technically have a 0% chance, as they've only met a 3-seed once in tournament history and that's when 3-seed Florida beat Florida Gulf Coast 62-50.
Bottom line: We almost picked Oral Roberts in the first round, and really considered it in round 2 when it didn't matter to the brackets...is three a charm? Fraid not. We think Oral Roberts will make more of their threes than they did last time (8 of 29) against Arkansas—but Arkansas will improve on their 4 of 24 outing too. Arkansas knows first-hand what they're in for, so they won't be taken by surprise like Ohio State and Florida.
Final prediction: Arkansas 88, Oral Roberts 74
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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