All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 2
Record: 26-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 20-9
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
UCLA is the 5th play-in team in 10 tournaments to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Will they be the 2nd to reach the Elite Eight?
Alabama UCLA
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #29
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #24
Offense: #28 Offense: #12
Defense: #3 Defense: #63
BPI: #8 BPI: #34
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #6 LRMC: #47
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #11/#3 Tempo Total/Off: #337/#309
Consistency: #331 Consistency: #57
Last 2 games: #13 Last 2 games: #7
Advantage to the 2-seed Alabama according to the numbers, though UCLA has the better offense. That offense will face Alabama's #3 defense while on the other end, UCLA's defense is just #63 and will face a very hurry-up Bama team, #3 in the nation is pulling the trigger quick. Consistency is UCLA's strong point, but that means they are less likely to rise above their #29 Strength. Alabama on the other hand often plays well above or below its #7 Strength ranking. And during the tournament, they've played below it while UCLA is having a rare upward surge—not counting the play-in game itself where they played par for the course.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): @(5)Tennessee+8, (7)Florida+15, (3)Arkansas+31, @(8)LSU+30, (8)LSU+18, =(5)Tennessee+5, =(8)LSU+1, =(15)Iona+13, =(10Maryland+19
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (3)Arkansas+31
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(7)Clemson-8, @(8)Oklahoma-5, @(9)Missouri-3, @(3)Arkansas-15
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(3)Arkansas-15
- Other losses (2): Stanford-18, Western Kentucky-2
Overview: Alabama didn't start the season a powerhouse, in fact they lost three of their first seven games, falling to Stanford 82-64, 7-seed Clemson by 8, and Western Kentucky by 2. But once the SEC season started they were off to the races with nine straight wins, beating 5-seed Tennessee, 7-seed Florida, 3-seed Arkansas (90-59), and 8-seed LSU (105-75 on the road). They lost to red-hot (at the time) 8-seed Oklahoma before beating LSU again for a 10-0 conference start. They dropped games to Missouri and Arkansas, both of whom were on a hot streak, too. They won their last six including three games to win the SEC tournament.
Jaden Shackleford leads the Crimson Tide with 14.2 points per game; three others average double figures as well including #4 scorer Herbert Jones (11.2) who also leads in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Alabama's so-so offensive efficiency comes from so-so shooting—they rank #105 in field goal percentage—and they suffer a lot of blocks and steals in their hurry-up offense. On defense they are spectacular, ranking #10 in opponent eFG% and forcing turnovers.
Guard Josh Primo, the Tide's 5th leading scorer (8.1 ppg), missed the Iona game but returned against Maryland, playing 23 minutes and scoring 10 points.
Herbert Jones led the way with 20 points as Alabama dispatched Iona 68-55 in the first round. Against Maryland Shackleford led with 21 points against Maryland while John Petty Jr. added 20; the two combined to make 9 of 17 three pointers.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT, =(6)BYU+11, =(14)Abilene Christian+20
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (12)Oregon St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (4): @(6)USC-18, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
- Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8
Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.
What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.
The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.
Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory vs. Michigan State; Juzang had 27 against BYU in their first-round win vs. BYU, and led with 17 against Abilene Christian.
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Game Analysis: UCLA has put together its two best back-to-back games of the season, and just at the right time. They've played games this well only three times during the season, and each time the subsequent game was a dud. On January 9 they beat Washington State 91-61, followed by a 5-point home win over weak Washington. They beat Arizona 74-60 only to barely edge much weaker ASU 80-79 at home. And their solid 76-61 defeat of Utah was followed by a 70-61 loss to Colorado. But after their strong first-round upset over BYU they didn't falter against Abilene Christian, taking control early and coasting to a 20-point win. The question is, can they put three games in a row together?
Alabama played much better against Maryland than it did vs. Iona. They established a first-half lead and put the game out of reach early in the 2nd half. They're also back at full strength with Joshua Primo in the lineup.
The divergence in tempo is a big thing in this game. Tempo discrepancies are normal and are usually just a matter of a few seconds here and there on average, even when one team ranks in the 300s in tempo and the other is in the top 50. But here we see a really big difference: on offense Alabama is the 3rd fastest, while UCLA's defense is #321; that's a difference of 4 seconds per possession on average, and that adds up over time, determining whether a game is 85 possessions or 65 possessions.
On the other end of the court there's no discrepancy, as UCLA's offense is #309 and Alabama's defense #263. So the number of possessions overall is going to be near the lower end, with the pace when the Tide are on offense determining whether there are 65 or 75 possessions. The key for UCLA is no to allow Alabama scoring runs, which they used to batter Maryland in an otherwise even game. Maryland's pace profile is almost exactly like UCLA's.
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 5.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Alabama: 62.8%
UCLA: 37.2%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Alabama: 75.0%
UCLA: 25.0%
Alabama by 8.4
11-seeds have made it this far many times recently, and many have been play-in teams. 11-seeds have a 13% (2 in 13) historical chance to beat 2-seeds, so we're giving UCLA about triple that. The only play-in team 11-seed to advance past the Sweet Sixteen was VCU in 2011, and they only had to beat 10-seed Florida State to advance.
UCLA's last two games are their best back-to-back games. If both teams play like they have so far, it's a 50/50 game—mainly because Alabama played one "dud" and then a great game. If we include UCLA's so-so win over Michigan State then the advantage goes back to the Tide.
Bottom line: Alabama might be forced into halfcourt most of the game, but in those times where they're not they'll take control like they did against Maryland. We also don't see UCLA having a third upside game in a row. Like most play-in successes, their run ends at the Sweet Sixteen.
Final prediction: Alabama 76, UCLA 66
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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