All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 1
Record: 22-4
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 4
Record: 18-6
Conference: ACC
Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 5:00 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
The Big Ten's last team faces the last 4-seed still alive.
Michigan Florida State
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #13
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #13
Offense: #8 Offense: #14
Defense: #9 Defense: #29
BPI: #6 BPI: #16
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #8 LRMC: #35
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #246/#178 Tempo Total/Off: #89/#59
Consistency: #315 Consistency: #289
Last 2 games: #24 Last 2 games: #8
1-seed Michigan is a rare team with top ten offense and defense; they rank higher than Florida State across the board except for their play in the tournament, which could have something to do with Isaiah Livers being out. Both teams are inconsistent enough that any reasonable result could occur, and that includes a blowout win by either squad.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): @(10)Maryland+11, (9)Wisconsin+23, (10)Maryland+24, @(4)Purdue+17, @(9)Wisconsin+8, (10)Rutgers+7, @(2)Ohio St.+5, (2)Iowa+22, (11)Michigan St.+19, =(10)Maryland+13, =(16)Texas Southern+16, =(8)LSU+8
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (3): (1)Illinois-23, @(11)Michigan St.-6, =(2)Ohio St.-1
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Other losses (1): @Minnesota-18
Overview: Michigan's season is full of tremendous wins and a few inexplicably bad losses. Juwan Howard's team raced to 11-0 and became the first team ever to beat three ranked teams in a row by 19 points or more; those were 10-seed Maryland, 9-seed Wisconsin, and in-between, Minnesota, who was ranked at the time. Immediately following the Wisconsin win they played Minnesota again and lost 75-57, a 43 point turnaround from the meeting at Ann Arbor. But the Wolverines picked up right where they'd left off, beating Maryland, 4-seed Purdue, Wisconsin, 2-seed Ohio State, and 2-seed Iowa over a 7-game stretch.
Then they faced 1-seed Illinois, who was missing leading scorer Ayo Dosunmu...and got blown away, 76-53, at home. They clubbed Michigan State, but then lost to the Spartans in Lansing. They blasted Maryland in the Big Ten tournament but fell to Ohio State in a battle. So it looks like Michigan is a national title caliber team, for sure—they just have to go six games without hitting one of their freakish underperformances.
The Wolverines are led by freshman center Hunter Dickinson's 14.2 points and 7.6 rebounds; he did a great job defending against Iowa's Luka Garza in that win. On offense Michigan shoots the three at a 38.7% clip but often opts for the 2 where they are good, too. They make 78% of their free throws and rarely turn the ball over. Their defense is just as strong as their offense; they are lockdown on 2-pointers, making opponents shoot the three if they can, and rebound the misses. They don't force turnovers but do block quite a few shots.
Isaiah Livers is their #2 scorer at 13.1 ppg and adds 6.0 rebounds and might miss the whole tournament. He's important for their 3-point shooting (43%) in particular.
Guard Mike Smith led the Wolverines against Texas Southern with 18 points. Eli Brooks carried the weight against LSU, scoring 21 with 5 of 9 three-point shooting.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (7)Florida+12, (9)Georgia Tech+13, (8)North Carolina+7, (7)Clemson+19, (4)Virginia+21, =(8)North Carolina+3, =(13)UNC Greensboro+10, =(5)Colorado+18
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(7)Clemson-10, @(9)Georgia Tech-11, @(8)North Carolina-8, =(9)Georgia Tech-5
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (2): UCF-12, @Notre Dame-10
Overview: Many teams had long breaks this season due to Covid, but FSU endured two such breaks. And unlike many teams, neither really seemed to affect their performance. The first break was after game 7 (a 77-67 loss at Clemson) on December 29. They played again on January 13 and won five straight, arguably their best play of the season; they demolished NC State 105-73 in their first game back and beat 8-seed North Carolina and 7-seed Clemson in this stretch. The 2nd Covid stop was after game 13, a 76-65 loss to Georgia Tech. They struggled a bit on their return, needing overtime to beat Wake Forest, but they won four straight in all including an 81-60 triumph over 4-seed Virginia. Whatever Leonard Hamilton, the players, or the university is doing is working; these were positive cases within the program, so they weren't practicing much if at all during the breaks.
The Seminoles are led by MJ Walker's 13.0 points per game and are the tallest team in the country, starting a lineup at 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-8, and 7-1 center Balsa Koprivica, with 6-9 freshman Scottie Barnes (11.0 ppg) coming in at guard, often playing point. Barnes was ACC freshman of the year and 6th man of the year. The 'Noles are a great shooting team, particularly behind the arc, and #11 in offensive rebounds when they miss. Their only weaknesses are turnovers and defense in general where they lag in rebounding and don't force turnovers.
RaiQuan Gray scored 17 points in the 'Noles 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro. Anthony Polite spurred the big 71-53 win over Colorado with 22 points.
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Game Analysis: Without Livers Michigan has been good but not great. It's only a 3-game sample but uniform among those performances has been a lack of greatness that they reached many times earlier in the year. Are they finally ready to turn the corner and show they can dominate a good team they way they beat Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, and Iowa during the season?
Florida State hadn't done much to end the season or start the tournament until their win over a very good Colorado team. That's the first sign that they're reaching their potential in quite a while, but was it a one-off?
Michigan has the advantage underneath with Hunter Dickinson and Austin Davis vs. Balsa Koprivica. But FSU's tall guards at 6-4 and 6-5 will be guarding a 5-11 and 6-1 backcourt, potentially disrupting things for the Wolverines.
Vegas Line:
Michigan by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Michigan by 4.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan: 62.0%
Florida State: 38.0%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Michigan: 50.0%
Florida State: 50.0%
Michigan by 1.2
Vegas is wise to Michigan's recent struggles, knocking down the statistical 4 point advantage they have for the full season to 2 1/2 over the 'Noles. We give FSU a 38% chance to win which is above the 28% a 4-seed normally has to beat a 1-seed.
In recent games (last 6) it's a tossup; the Wolverines are still an average 1 point winner. Looking at just the last 3 (where the Wolverines miss Livers) the Wolverines take 56% but the average result is a 2 point FSU win.
Bottom line: We're not fond of how either of these teams are playing, either during the tournament or to close out the season prior to the tournament. But FSU's win over Colorado was the first sign of great basketball from either team recently. That's enough to go on, and we think Michigan might be due for one of its bad performances instead of one of its great ones.
Final prediction: Florida State 79, Michigan 67
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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