All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 28-0
Conference: West Coast
vs.
Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 5
Record: 22-8
Conference: Big East
Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 2:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Hinkle, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Gonzaga continues their march toward the Final Four, with Creighton in their way next.
Gonzaga Creighton
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #16
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #19
Offense: #1 Offense: #23
Defense: #8 Defense: #32
BPI: #1 BPI: #15
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1 LRMC: #12
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #4/#2 Tempo Total/Off: #143/#42
Consistency: #82 Consistency: #275
Last 2 games: #2 Last 2 games: #29
The Zags haven't given up their perch at #1, even on offensive efficiency. Creighton holds in the top 20 across the board; their offense and defense. Both offenses are pretty quick—the Zags quicker, of course. Creighton will need to be inconsistent on the upside for this game, because they haven't played all that well in the tournament, while Gonzaga has played about as well as anyone.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.
The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.
Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.
The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(7)Connecticut+OT, (7)Connecticut+8, @(12)Georgetown+15, (5)Villanova+16, =(7)Connecticut+3, =(12)UC Santa Barbara+1, =(13)Ohio+14
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (5)Villanova+16
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(3)Kansas-1, (12)Georgetown-7, @(5)Villanova-12, =(12)Georgetown-25
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(5)Villanova-12
- Other losses (4): Marquette-5, @Butler-OT, Providence-4, @Xavier-8
Overview: In their brief pre-conference schedule Creighton lost to 3-seed Kansas 73-72 then lost their first Big East contest to Marquette. They won six straight but only one victim was an eventual NCAA qualifier (UConn). From there, the Bluejays won consistenly with occasional lapses, losing twice in a row two separate times. They seemed to be rolling at the end—they beat Butler 93-73 with coach Greg McDermott suspended for using insensitive language, then beat them worse when he was re-instated, 87-56. They seemed to really be united by the ordeal as they topped red hot UConn 59-56.
But then they met Georgetown, and after getting a small lead at 13-6, were victimized by a 46-8 run by Georgetown. The run spanned both halfs, meaning no adjustment or pep-talk made any difference. And they never made a run to cut into the lead. A lot of it was luck: Creighton stopped hitting their threes and everything was falling for the Hoyas. But playing your worse game of the year at the end of the season is cause for concern. Luckily, it wasn't part of a trend, so it was probably more due to Georgetown's improvement and enthusiasm than Creighton's, so it shouldn't carry over into the tournament. It does raise questions about how far they can advance.
Point guard Marcus Zegarowski is the team's leading scorer at 15.5 points per game and he's a tough customer. The Bluejays' scoring is distributed very evenly among five players in double figures. They shoot the ball really well, from both the 3 (36.7%) and the 2 (56%), but they are oddly a very poor free-throw shooting team (64%). They don't rebound well so if the shots aren't falling for some reason they can be in trouble (as we saw in the Georgetown game).
Zegarowski's 17 gave Creighton the edge in the 63-62 win over UCSB, who missed several game-winners near the end. Zagarowski finished with 20 in the 72-58 win over 13-seed Ohio.
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Game Analysis: Creighton can get on a run with three-pointers and make trouble for anyone. Oklahoma gave Gonzaga a good challenge and the Bluejays are a much better shooting team. Countering this threat is Gonzaga's great defense, and their own shooting percentages which top Creighton's.
Marcus Zegarowski is the kind of guard that can push Gonzaga. We saw Austin Reaves score 27 against the Zags on 11 of 17 shooting; Zegarowski shoots better from both 2-point and especially from 3-point land. He will help keep the game close.
And it could be close. Almost every team that wins the championship—if that's where Gonzaga is headed—faces a really close game. The problem for Creighton is that in a close, hard-fought game, they lose on free throws where they shoot 64% to Gonzaga's 74%.
And does Creighton have an answer for Drew Timme? Their normal lineup has no one over 6-7 in it and 7-1 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner plays 14 minutes a game with 6 points and 3.5 rebounds.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 13 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 11.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 78.6%
Creighton: 21.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Gonzaga: 75.0%
Creighton: 25.0%
Gonzaga by 10.8
A big line for Gonzaga as Vegas is not impressed by Creighton's recent play. 5-seeds trying to upset 1-seeds historically win 19%, so Creighton's odds are in that range. In recent play Creighton does ok, too. We won't look at the last 3 games because Creighton's brutal loss to Georgetown was in that span; instead over the two games of the tournament Gonzaga wins by 18 (fyi the last-3-games margin is 26 points).
Bottom line: Creighton hasn't quite been themselves since Georgetown. They're getting there, though, and this is their big moment. We see the game going like the Oklahoma game, with a strong effort from Creighton's guards but outclassed underneath by Drew Timme.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 95, Creighton 77
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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